another full week ahead of matches, let's get after'em
GL

Goals per match since returning from covid-19

Serie A 3.54 (24 matches)
Bundesliga 3.08 (73 matches)
La Liga 2.28 (49 matches)
Premier League 2.16 (24 matches)

Fresh off Harry Maguire’s late winner in the FA Cup quarter final against Norwich on Saturday, Manchester United hits the road to England’s South Coast to play Brighton on Tuesday. United is in a great run of form dating back to before the lockdown, as they haven’t lost in 14 matches in all competitions, winning 10 and drawing four.

The addition of Bruno Fernandes has spiced up a previously lackluster United attack, and the return of Paul Pogba to the starting XI led to a 3-0 thrashing of Sheffield in their last Premier League match.

The Red Devils have to win on Tuesday to keep pace with fifth-place Wolves, who are three points ahead of them for the potential race for the final Champions League place.

In their last seven PL matches, United have conceded just twice, and expected goals models suggest they’ve been quite fortunate to only allow two because they’ve allowed 6.4 xG in those matches.

Combine that with Manchester United’s disappointing road form throughout most of the season, where they have scored 16 and conceded 19 in 16 road matches, and I’m expecting Brighton to be able to generate chances to score.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

United have struggled at the AmEx in past trips to Brighton. While they won 3-1 in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford this season, the Seagulls won 3-2 and 1-0 in United’s last two trips to the South Coast.

Graham Potter’s side entered the restart period in a desperate need for points. While underlying metrics have rated the Seagulls higher than the table suggested, they found themselves in a relegation scrap.

Since the restart, though, Brighton came back to defeat Arsenal 2-1 and earned a 0-0 draw with Leicester. Four points from top-half teams have Brighton hovering six points above relegation. Expected goals metrics rank Brighton 13th in the Premier League, and a league average team at home.

The Seagulls have scored 19 and conceded 16 at home this year, and notched wins against Arsenal, Spurs and Everton while drawing Chelsea and Wolves. Potter’s side have tried to play more possession football in 2019-20, and they rank seventh in possession and sixth in passes allowed per defensive action, indicating that they are much more of a high pressing team.

United have had their best offensive games against teams that play this type of soccer, like Chelsea and Manchester City. Obviously, Brighton are not on the level of those two teams, but the play-styles have similarities. The Seagulls have been a tough out at home against the biggest clubs

Genoa vs Juventus | Tuesday 30th June 2020, 3:45

Juventus take the trip to Italy’s Liguria region in fine fettle. It’s been business as usual upon the restart of Serie A and the Old Lady go into this clash four points clear at the top of the table after winning both games upon returning to league action.

Genoa have remarkably been awarded two penalties in both of their games after the break, scoring three of them but gaining only one point – Juve themselves have had spot kicks in both comeback league fixtures.

Given that both sides have visited the spot on 23 occasions (Genoa 13, Juventus 10) from their combined 56 games I did cast my eye over the odds for referee Gianpaolo Calvarese giving a penalty in this one, but can’t bring myself to back that eventuality happening at the best priced 7/4, especially for a man who has only done so in four of his 12 league appointments this season.

Signore Calvarese is not one of the more card-happy Italian officials which also led me away from taking 40+ Booking Points for Il Grifone despite their collection of 41 cards (39 yellow, two red) in their Stadio Luigi Ferraris fixtures.

The Rossoblu now sit just one point above the dreaded relegation zone so a visit of the current Italian champions on a five league game winning streak, is not what they would have wanted with a record of losing 80% of matches in their own stadium where they have started as underdog.

Davide Nicola’s side having seen three or more goals in each of their last five Serie A fixtures, conceding at least three in three of their last four at home but will take encouragement from the fact they have scored at least two goals in their last three home matches against the Old Lady.

With Maurizio Sarri’s table-toppers having only failed to score on one league road trip this season (Fiorentina) and notching twice or more in their last five Serie A fixtures, goals should definitely be on the menu here.

In their respective 27 home and away league games this season the two sides combine for a healthy total of 19 occasions where both teams have scored (70%) however I want to keep on the side of a team that can easily blow away their hosts and make it a sixth clean sheet in eight league games.

Arsenal have seemingly righted the ship after a pair of worrying losses right after the break. A deserved 2-0 win over Southampton was followed up by a last-gasp victory over Sheffield United in the FA Cup this past weekend.

A home match against the last-place team in the Premier League should keep the good times rolling at the Emirates, though Arsenal have a habit of making a meal of easy matchups.

Norwich City put in a decent shift in each of their last two matches, an extra-time loss to Manchester United in the FA Cup and a 1-0 loss to Everton, but the time for moral victories has long passed for the Canaries, who will need a minor miracle to avoid being relegated back to the Championship.

If you cover up the names and just look at the stats, this becomes a match between a mediocre team and a bad one. Arsenal may be just in the positive in terms of actual goal differential, but their xG differential sits at -5 and makes them out to be the 10th-best team in the Premier League this season.

Those numbers are much stronger than the -23.7 xG differential that Norwich City brings to the table, but don’t get fooled into thinking that Arsenal are a sure thing to run away with this match on Wednesday afternoon.

If they truly want to go for broke and make a run at a great escape, Norwich don’t have any other choice but to go for the win at the Emirates, which could lead to a wide-open affair, especially if someone finds an early goal.

Even if the match doesn’t open up, neither one of these defenses are anything to write home about, so the goals should come at some point.

I’d wait until the lineups come out since both of these teams have played a bunch of games in a couple of weeks, but if they look decent I think the Over 3

West Ham vs Chelsea | Wednesday 1st July 2020, 3:15

East and West London collide on Wednesday night as Frank Lampard takes his Chelsea side to his former employers West Ham in their quest for a top four finish.

Although Chelsea’s performances since the Premier League restart haven’t produced a complete 90 minutes that Lampard will be looking for, the two league wins and FA Cup success have given plenty of encouragement for Blues fans that the appointment of the legendary midfielder will prove fruitful for years to come.

If Chelsea can play with the intensity they’ve shown on a fair few occasions this season on a consistent basis, this youthful squad could well flourish. The summer arrival of Timo Werner should solve the lack of clinical edge which has been missing in games against bottom half sides, something which was evident in the reverse fixture of this match-up in November when the Hammers stole three priceless points from Stamford Bridge.

The Chelsea boss has managed his squad well across the season but the addition of Werner will not be the only summer signing if the Blues are serious about a title challenge next season. One man that has been increasingly linked is West Ham midfielder Declan Rice.

Rice has been a shining light in yet another woeful season for the Hammers, improving all elements of his game but particularly his composure on the ball in tight areas of the pitch. The 21 year-old has been a tough tackler in the middle of the park all season, becoming increasingly busy in the challenge with West Ham’s possession numbers falling heavily since David Moyes replace Manuel Pellegrini in December.

In the last seven matches in his regular covering central midfield role, Rice has averaged 3.57 tackles and in his most outing against another local rival Tottenham, he racked up six successful tackles. There’s no doubt that the youngster will want to impress against his potential suitors so I like the look of him to register 3+ tackles, priced at evens with PokerStars.

In that aforementioned first meeting of the two sides back in the Autumn, Rice won three tackles on a day that West Ham reached 26 in total so the even money odds look generous with the same line as short as 8/11 elsewhere.

Blues backed in London derby
I want to tackle the outrights here as, despite Rice’s decent showings, I don’t rate West Ham at all. David Moyes arrived with the statement that “I win games of football” but with a win percentage of just 21%, the club look in no better position than when Pellegrini was sacked just after Christmas.

Conceding soft goals has been a problem for the Claret and Blues for years now and to add to the mire the team currently find themselves in, the attacking potency at the other end of the pitch has dried up too.

The experiment of starting Michail Antonio as a sole striker seems to have run its course with Seb Haller currently out injured. With no outlet up front, the ball simply keeps coming back at them and putting a defence already low on confidence under even more pressure.

Two blanks since the league resumption (admittedly against Wolves and Tottenham) with low Expected Goals (xG) recordings of just 0.44 and 0.83 underline the problem and if Chelsea are clued up to balls in behind, they should nullify any limited threat that West Ham pose.

gotta get back on track !!!!!!!!

1 parlay of 2 Teams

Arsenal FC
-222
Chelsea FC
-192

glta

Covid to date : 6-8-1

Recent Form
This is essentially a dead rubber game with Liverpool having already sealed the title, while Man City are unlikely to allow second place to slip now, though of course both sides will be keen to get one over their main domestic competitors.

We doubt this will just be a tame, bore draw given the attacking talent on display and this fixture certainly hasn’t been short on output in recent times.

Since the start of 2017/18 when Liverpool became a real force once more, six of eight clashes across all tournaments have featured a minimum of three goals at an average of 3.4 per game, with both sides scoring in four of the past five.

City may have kept three clean sheets from four matches since the restart, though these came against a hapless Arsenal, a Burnley side missing first choice strike duo Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood, as well as low-scoring Newcastle.

Their other recent outing saw Chelsea down them 2-1, meaning they’ve now kept just the solitary clean sheet in 11 league matches against the top seven in the table following gameweek 31.

They also conceded in both legs of their League Cup semi-final with Man Utd, as well as their most difficult assignments in Europe against Atalanta (twice) and Real Madrid.

2pts: Liverpool + 0.25 Asian Handicap
City’s record against the top sides this term ultimately undermined any aspirations of a third straight title, going just W3-D1-L7 across those 11 league encounters with the top seven.

That includes four defeats from the last five such matches, as well as the reverse fixture at Anfield back in November, so we’re a tad surprised to see the visitors at the much larger price.

Given Liverpool have lost just one of the past seven head to heads (W4-D2-L1), they look well worth siding with on the handicap.

"City’s record against the top sides ultimately undermined any title aspirations, going W3-D1-L7 across 11 league encounters with the top seven"

Valencia W3-D3-L10 (a) this season, averaging 0.56 xG open play. Boast a 32% xG ratio and 32% xG open play ratio (a). Ranked rock-bottom for shots, SOT and shots in box ratio.

Valencia kept 2/16 CS without Garay (W4-D4-L8). Dreadful value favs at Granada.

Norwich vs Brighton | Saturday 4th July 2020, 7:30


Basement club Norwich need to start winning fast if they are to stand any chance of staying in the Premier League next season but it certainly doesn’t look good for the Canaries.

Manager Daniel Farke stated before the restart that his team needed at least five wins from their nine remaining matches to give themselves a chance which, at the time, looked ambitious to say the least but three league defeats later it looks close to impossible.

There was early season encouragement for Norwich – Teemu Pukki grabbing five goals in the first knockings of the campaign and brave performances over some of the big boys, including a 3-2 victory against then-Champions Manchester City. Despite that, Pukki’s early season form has dissipated and 60 goals conceded in 32 games is always going to lead to a year of trouble.

There’s some players within this Norwich squad that, in the likely situation that they drop back down into the Championship in the next few weeks, could be picked up by other Premier League teams with young talents Max Aarons, Jamal Lewis and Todd Cantwell all showing ability that, under the right coach, could be of real use.

This is the sort of match that Farke would have pinpointed at the start of the season as a must-win, so it certainly can be considered that now with six to play. Despite the need for three points, I can’t go near Norwich on the outrights here considering how blunt they look at the moment at the top end of the pitch, added to the soft goals they’re conceding game in, game out.

Having scored 9 goals in their first 5 Premier League games this season – including netting 3 in 2 different matches – Norwich have scored just 16 in their last 27 games (0.6 per game) and never more than twice in a match.

Norwich City vs. Brighton & Hove Albion Tale of the Tape

The total has stayed under 2.5 goals in Norwich City’s last three matches against Brighton across all competitions
Brighton has earned a draw in five of its last eight league tilts
The total has stayed under 2.5 goals in Brighton’s last three road league contests
Norwich City has lost seven of its last nine Premier League matches

Two of the Premier League’s biggest over-performers have recently hit poor stretches of form entering Saturday’s clash at the King Power Stadium: Leicester and Palace have a combined one win in seven total matches since the restart, and the Foxes are now in danger of slipping out of the top-four race.

Leicester City is winless since the Premier League restart, drawing twice and losing twice over its last four matches. The Foxes’ offense has dried up with top goalscorer Jamie Vardy nabbing two goals over his last 14 appearances. However, Leicester has quietly seen a recent uptick in performances, even if the results haven’t necessarily matched up with them.

Palace’s terrible form in front of goal presents an opportunity to buy low on the Foxes and get good value on Leicester in a must-win spot at home.

Leicester outplayed both Everton and Chelsea for large stretches of their last two matches, but the Foxes spotted Everton two early goals and couldn’t convert its chances against Chelsea.

It’s really been two separate seasons for Leicester: From August to December, they won 12 of their first 16 matches, drawing two and losing two. Their rock-solid defense combined with an in-form Jamie Vardy and they vastly over-performed expected goals (xG). Since January, though, they’ve won just three of 12 matches as the goals have dried up and xG regression hit hard.

Now Leicester sits in third, clinging to a one-point lead over Chelsea and a three-point lead over Manchester United and Wolves.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

The reality is that Leicester weren’t as good as they appeared early, and they’re not as bad as they seem since. The Foxes are sixth in xG difference — much better than Palace, who have vastly over-performed their xG stats this season, too. Only Liverpool and Newcastle have a larger expected points difference than Palace.

Palace are dead-last in expected goals for, and 19th in goals scored. They’ve gathered points through a series of 1-0 wins and fortunate defending that they have conceded more goals. The Eagles have one win over a top-half team: An upset of Manchester United back in September after a David de Gea howler in goal.

Wilfried Zaha has been largely ineffective in attack this season, target man Christian Benteke has just one goal, and leading goal-scorer Jordan Ayew (nine goals) has generated 0.24 xG per 90 minute — quite poor for a team’s leading attacker.

Arsenal’s back-to-back wins against Southampton and Norwich by a combined 6-0 scoreline have people believing that the Gunners are prepared to qualify for the Europa League yet again next season. After two defeats and two victories since the restart, seventh-place Arsenal hit the road north on Saturday to Wolverhampton to take on sixth place Wolves.

Wolves have a perfect record since the restart, winning all three matches by a combined 4-0 score — three game-winning goals, all in the second half, all while keeping clean sheets.

While Arsenal’s last two results are impressive just by looking at the box score, a look at the actual goals scored suggests the Gunners have been quite fortunate: In Arsenal’s 2-0 road win at Southampton, Arsenal were the better side, but benefitted from two goalkeeper errors by Southampton’s James McCarthy to produce two easy tap-in goals.

Against Norwich, the Gunners again deserved all three points, but were gifted two goals off a goalie error by Norwich’s Tim Krul and another on a sloppy back pass that led to a 1-on-1 finish. I still have major questions about the Gunners going forward, and Wolves’ defense has proven to be one of the sturdiest in the Premier League this season. Wolverhampton have conceded the least expected goals in the Premier League, and despite not being a dominant possession team, don’t allow many quality goal-scoring chances.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Arsenal, road woes aside, has struggled most in the second halves of games this season. In the first meeting between these two sides at The Emirates, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored a first half goal, but Wolves’ striker Raul Jimenez rescued a point with a second-half equalizer in a 1-1 draw.

Arsenal’s xG by minute in 2019-20

1-30: +2.93
31-60: -3.28
61-90: -4.88
While Arsenal’s performances have gradually gotten worse as the game has gone on, Wolves are the exact opposite. As I wrote about before Wolves’ win against Aston Villa last week, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have been a much better side in the second halves of games than the first half.

Wolves xG by minute in 2019-20

1-30: +1.60
31-60: +4.59
61-90: +9.64
Arsenal are likely to have more of the ball in this match, with Wolves looking to break out on the counter. In the last meeting, Arsenal had 58% of the ball, but produced 10 shots to Wolves’ 25 and Bernd Leno made multiple saves to keep Arsenal level. He remains out for Saturday with a knee injury.

Bayern Munich can wrap up another domestic double, as well as keep their hopes for a treble alive, with a win over Bayer Leverkusen in the DFB-Pokal German Cup Final on Saturday afternoon.

Munich — fresh off their eighth Bundesliga title on the bounce — led the division in goals for, goals conceded, expected goals for (xGF) and expected goals against (xGA). It was more ho-hum domination by Die Roten.

Bayer Leverkusen will be disappointed to miss out on Champions League Football in 2020-21, but Die Werkself put together a strong Bundesliga campaign. Leverkusen finished fifth overall with 63 points and boasted a +22.2 xG differential.

Bayer Leverkusen are a good team. Bayern Munich are a dominant one. But, as the saying goes, anything can happen in cup football.

Bayern Munich came out of the gates flying after the restart, winning all nine of their matches and outscoring their opponents, 27-6, in the process.

Die Roten’s +12.79 expected goal differential during that span wasn’t as impressive, but Munich are such a talented team that they will almost always outscore their underlying metrics.

It’s very hard to poke holes in Bayern Munich.

Bayer Leverkusen tallied five wins, three losses and a draw after the restart, but three of their five victories came in their first three matches. With a berth in the 2020-21 Champions League at stake, Leverkusen could only muster seven points in their last five matches. That run of form included a 4-2 loss to Bayern Munich and a bad loss to Hertha Berlin. At their best, Leverkusen could make a game of it on Saturday, but their inconsistent finish to the season gives me pause.

Not many teams will match up well with Bayern Munich, but Leverkusen play a high-risk, high-reward style of soccer that should play right into Munich’s hands.

There’s plenty of reasons to believe this match will feature goals, so it’s not surprising that the odds on both teams to score prop currently sits at -180 (64.2% implied probability), even though Munich boast one of Europe’s best defensive records. Leverkusen are a score-first, think-later type of team and they have a legitimate talisman in Kai Havertz up top, so they should have chances to get on the board on Saturday.

Over the course of the season, Leverkusen’s defense held up, but they struggled down the stretch and were overrun by Bayern in their showdown a month ago.

Recent Form
There’s a real feel-good factor emanating from Old Trafford at the moment. The attack is looking as dangerous as it has all season and is backed up by a solid defensive record, while Chelsea’s unexpected defeat to the Hammers on Wednesday evening has seriously boosted their top-four prospects.

The mood is somewhat different in the Bournemouth camp, where a run of six defeats from seven winless outings has left Eddie Howe’s men staring down the barrel of relegation.

The Cherries’ latest outing saw them torn apart 4-1 at home by Newcastle and it’s not as though their visitors just capitalized on a good spell during the game, with the goals coming steadily throughout in the fifth, 30th, 57th and 77th minutes.

More alarmingly, Steve Bruce’s men are hardly big scorers typically, while even Bournemouth’s own sole strike was a 94th-minute consolation effort as they capitalized on the Magpies’ weakness at set pieces.

With that in mind, it’s virtually impossible to envisage the visitors scoring here from open play. United have now won 10 of 15 unbeaten matches across all competitions since late January, registering 11 clean sheets in the process as they never conceded more than once in a single game in that spell.

They’ve won each of the past four at the Theatre of Dreams by a combined 13-0 scoreline, with three of these victories coming by a minimum three-goal margin as the exception was a 2-0 win over local rivals Man City.

Manchester United To Win To Nil
The Red Devils would be third in a table of home results only, which must be a further concern for Eddie Howe.

Away from home, his Bournemouth side have now gone W1-D1-L12 across all competitions since late September as they failed to score on nine occasions, with their opponents producing wins to nil in five of the last seven.

Although the Cherries are usually quite good at finding the net when facing the top teams, they’re painfully low on confidence at the moment.

Indeed, they’re the division’s worst team on current form over the past six rounds of fixtures, while by contrast United are right near the top of that list.

To make matters worse, the visitors will have to make do without top scorer Callum Wilson. Since 2015/16, the Cherries have scored 1.42 goals per game in the 105 games he’s started, compared with just 1.04 when he hasn’t, a sharp reduction of 27%, so the win to nil appears nailed on.

Manchester United
-1.5, -2 ... -119

Wolverhampton Wanderers
+128

glta

Wolves vs Arsenal | Saturday 4th July 2020, 12:30

There’s only two places separating these two but in my eyes one side has been far more impressive and that is Wolves.

Nuno Espirito Santo has done a superb job at Molineux, considering they’ve had to negotiate a Europa League campaign as well with a relatively thin squad compared to others in the competition. It’s major kudos to the set up there, preparation and recovery looks to have been immaculate given their lack of injuries compared to the amount of games played.

It must be almost a full year now since the Old Gold started their 2019/20 season with the Europa qualifiers, yet they continue to be competitive at a minimum in all games they’re involved in. Serious team.

What’s even more startling is they actually get better the more the game drags on. If it wasn’t for their phenomenal second half form they’d be down at the bottom end of the table. Unbelievably, Wolves of all teams, are bottom of the first-half table. It’s therefore no surprise they are right up there with Manchester City and Liverpool in the second-half table.

Nuno has been able to bring on speedster Adama Traore, the ultimate gamechanger, and that has given them a different dimension to their game. He’s such a useful player but so niche in the fact he’s probably more useful coming on in the second half against tired defences. It will be interesting to see if he gets a starting berth on Saturday evening. Both these points will factor into my bets but more on that later.

Arsenal fans were buzzing with their 4-0 win of rock bottom Norwich, a game I’m personally loathed to look too deeply into that. Norwich have been an utter shambles upon the restart and Arsenal have long have a strong record at cruising past the lesser lights at the Emirates. Away is where the majority of their problems lie, it’s just three wins on the road in the league this season, against Newcastle, West Ham and a poor home side in Southampton.

The Gunners have been unconvincing on the data too, struggling at both ends of the pitch – compared to the rest of the elite they are miles off. I think their price of 12/5 is warranted. I can’t really say Wolves are a fantastic price either at 13/10. Although they’ve been in good form their home form against the better sides isn’t remarkable, it includes an awful lot of draws.

In fact, these two have drawn the most games in the league with 13 a piece. If I was going for an outright I’d be backing the stalemate at the prices, 12/5 is on offer from Bet365 and I’d make it a touch shorter all things considered.

The betting angles
However, I’m going to plump for a few bigger prices and keep stakes relatively low. Firstly, the 9/1 available on Arsenal to be leading at half time but not to win the game looks worth a few quid.

We’ve mentioned the hosts’ shoddy first half showings and Arsenal could’ve had a boost in confidence at the top of the pitch with the four goals midweek. However, Wolves should be backed to get right back into the game later on as an Arsenal side who’ve had a barrage of games tire.

Leicester vs Crystal Palace | Saturday 4th July 2020, 10:00

It’s been a tough return to action for Leicester who are winless since the Premier League resumed. Brendan Rodgers’ side had, not for the first time, been a surprise package domestically as they punched above their weight and looked like challenging Manchester City for second place.

This was largely due to the Foxes’ eight-game winning streak between October and December. However, it looks as though Leicester will be limping their way to a Champions League place as they have secured just 13 points from 12 games since the turn of the New Year.

Crystal Palace haven’t fared too much better and have only picked up one more victory than this weekend’s opponents in 2020. They have however managed to chalk up a win since the restart, beating strugglers Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium.

These two previously met back in November when Leicester came out as victors thanks to goals from star men Caglar Soyuncu and Jamie Vardy.

Key Facts
Leicester:

Commit on average 10.3 fouls per game when playing at home.
Receive on average 11.8 fouls per game when playing at home.
Have seen 2+ cards in just 3/9 games at home to teams currently in the bottom half.
In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 6/9 occasions.
Have found the net in 7/9 home games against teams in the bottom half.
In those games they have conceded on 5/9 occasions.
Have conceded 2+ goals at home to a side in the bottom half just once this season (against Southampton.
Crystal Palace:

Commit on average 10.8 fouls per game when playing away.
Receive on average 11.9 fouls per game when playing away.
Have seen 2+ cards in 4/8 games away to sides in the top half this season.
In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 6/8 occasions.
Have scored in 4/8 away games against teams in the top half this season.
In those games they have conceded on 7/8 occasions.
Have conceded 2+ goals in 5/8 games away to teams in the top half this season.
Analysis
In the previous match between these two at Selhurst Park, Crystal Palace didn’t see too much of the ball and despite registering 12 shots on goal, they failed to hit the target. It’s an all too familiar theme for Roy Hodgson’s men as his side remain the only team left in the Premier League who’ve failed to score more than twice in any league game this season.

For Leicester, all motivation is on cementing their place in a Champions League spot. At the turn of the year they were in second place with a 14-point cushion between themselves and fifth. Now third, the gap between them and fifth is just three points.

Palace face on average 16.1 shots per-game when playing away– second to only Aston Villa. With so much at stake for the home side the impetus is on Leicester to obtain a positive result. In this exact fixture last season, despite losing 4-1, Leicester registered a colossal 27 shots and so I think there’s value to be had on the home side getting at least 16 shots away at 11/8 (Bet365).

Jonathan Moss is the referee for this and in terms of fouls awarded per game he is at the low end. I can see this being an open game with Leicester seeing the lion’s share of possession and creating a host of chances. Only Liverpool see fewer cards at home per game than Leicester