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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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No. 10 Candy Tycoon
Odds: 20-1
Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of Twirling Candy is coming in off a big performance in the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. Javier Castellano was supposed to have the mount, but he decided to return to NY this past week, where he contracted COVID-19 and is now in quarantine. Candy Tycoon has one win, two seconds and a pair of third-place finishes from six career starts. While it took him five races to break his maiden, he has always been in contention and showed his versatility by coming from off the pace in the Fountain of Youth.
Even though he finished second to Ete Indien, he was carried wide for most of the race and made one big run at the end to edge out As Seen On TV by a neck. If you remove his lone turf start, his speed figures have continually improved throughout his career.
Since the Fountain of Youth, Candy Tycoon has had two works, one of which was a bullet going 4F in 48.12 seconds.
While he is going to be looked at as the ‘other’ Pletcher horse in the race, he’s a good price and one that I will use in some exotics.
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03-28-20 10:36 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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If the Churchill Downs morning line bears any resemblance to the reality of this weekend’s KDFW, overlays may be in the offing for Enforceable, Modernist and Three Technique. After a win in the Lecomte and an impressive second in the better division of the Risen Star, Enforceable (50-1 KDFW, 25-1 William Hill) drifted in fixed-odds futures because of his fifth-place finish two weeks ago in the Louisiana Derby. Bookmaker prices for Risen Star winner Modernist (50-1, 32-1) held steady after he finished third at 12-1 in the Louisiana Derby. After winning his last two races as a 2-year-old, Three Technique (50-1, 30-1) lost on wet tracks in the Smarty Jones and Rebel, and he might still be regarded as an overextended sprinter. The KDFW was due to open Friday at noon EDT and close Sunday at 6 p.m. As usual, the best advice is to wait until late to see how the odds look before making a wager.
Lacking any graded stakes this weekend in North America, the best racing available to U.S. bettors comes from Australia late Friday into early Saturday. That is when four Group 1 races are featured in the first week of The Championships behind closed doors on a rain-softened turf course at Royal Randwick, Sydney. Nick Quinn of Sky Racing Australia handicapped these top choices:
* Larimer Street (15-1) with a win-place bet in the seven-furlong ATC Sires Produce for 2-year-olds Saturday at 12:15 a.m. EDT. (Note that place bet on Australian races is like a show bet in the U.S.; there is no equivalent bet to finish at least second.)
* Rosehill Guineas victor Castelvecchio (9-5) to win the 1½-mile Australian Derby for 3-year-olds Saturday at 12:55 a.m. EDT.
* Front-running Nature Strip (5-2) to win the six-furlong, weight-for-age T.J. Smith Stakes on Saturday at 1:35 a.m. EDT.
* A nine-time victor on soft and heavy courses, top weight Melody Belle (7-1) with a win-place wager against the boys in the Doncaster Mile handicap Saturday at 2:15 a.m. EDT.
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04-03-20 09:14 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Gulfstream 4/03
Race 7
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
Race 7 is a $12,500 claiming event that will run on the turf course at the distance of 1 mile. To be honest, this was one where I didn’t love any of these horses. I ended up having two selections here, but more by process of elimination, rather than strong opinion.
The favorite is No. 2 Interest (3-1), which is an interesting name because she had no interest in running last time out after she stumbled badly at the start. In her second start for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., she will be removing blinkers and she will be dropping in class. In addition to an equipment change and drop in class, she also gets jockey Luis Saez for the first time since her lone victory.
Interest has the highest speed figure in his most recent start compared to the rest of the field. Because of the troubled start, equipment change, drop in class and switch to one of the meets leading jocks, I’m making her my top pick, although I’m not that confident.
The other horse that I landed on was No. 7 Silly Notion (6-1). She is coming in after getting claimed in her maiden victory at Tampa Bay Downs. She’s now trained by Larry Rivelli who is winning at 25% after a maiden win last time out and 26% when shipping in from another track.
Additionally she gets Tyler Gaffalione aboard who is winning 18% of his turf starts. Silly Notion came from off the pace in her career debut. No. 3 Fiamma Mamma (15-1) and No. 10 Teacher Dream (6-1) should give Silly Notion enough pace to run into, so I’m going to include Silly Notion in my plays, but as I mentioned earlier, I don’t love either of these choices and ended up on them by process of elimination.
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04-03-20 09:52 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Race 9: The Purple Martin Stakes
Time: 6:09 p.m. ET
The feature on today’s card, and the only stakes race in the country on Saturday, is the $100K Purple Martin Stakes. It’s for three-year-old fillies and will be run at a distance of six furlongs and is set for a field of 10 horses.
No. 8 Frank’s Rockette (5-2) is the morning-line favorite for the Purple Martin. The daughter of Into Mischief is a home bred for Frank Fletcher and is trained by Bill Mott. She has never missed the board in five career starts, with two wins and three seconds. She is also the classiest horse in the race with all of her second-place finishes coming against graded stakes competition. In her most recent start, which was her first off a layoff, she romped the field in a non-graded stakes event at Gulfstream by seven lengths with little asking.
Frank’s Rockette also put up her best speed figure in her last start, which is also the best speed figure among any in this field. She’s my top pick.
Next, we will go down towards the inside with No. 2 Ring Leader (6-1). She is coming in off her first career loss, a fifth-place finish in the G3 Honeybee. That was her first try at a route distance and it seemed to be too much for her.
Prior to that, Ring Leader had three consecutive wins for trainer McLean Robertson. She’s a horse who wants the lead, but it’s not going to be as easy with others in here who also are gunning for the front. Joe Talamo will be back aboard after she had David Cohen in the irons in her last start. Talamo piloted Ring Leader to a win two starts back against similar competition in a non-graded stakes event. I’m going to include her in my ticket.
No. 6 Lexi On the Move (8-1) is coming in a perfect 2-for-2 lifetime. Trained by Robertino Diodoro and ridden by David Cohen, the daughter of Fast Anna was purchased for $160K at the OBS June 2019 sale. Both of her wins came right here at Oaklawn and both took place at this distance.
Lexi On the Move sat just off the pace in both of her starts and won going away after kicking clear late. Diodoro is having an excellent meet sending out winners 28% of the time and is winning at a 27% clip when his horse is coming off a win. Cohen is Diodoro’s go-to rider as the two have teamed up 70 times in the last 60 days winning an astonishing 30% of the time. With her running style she’s one that stands a big chance at a great price. You must include her.
Another one in here to consider is No. 4 Edgeway (3-1). The daughter of Competitive Edge was purchased for $275K at the OBS April 2019 sale.
Trained by John Sadler and ridden by Tyler Baze, Edgeway won impressively in her debut by five lengths. That win came right here at Oaklawn at the same distance of six furlongs. Since that win, she has recorded two good workouts. Sadler is winning at 20% in non-graded stakes races and he has a 20% win rate when he teams up with Baze.
While I don’t like her odds, she’s one that I’m going to include in my ticket.
The other horse that we need to talk about is No. 1 Kimari (4-1). She’s trained by Wesley Ward and hall of famer Mike Smith flies in from California for the mount. After an extremely impressive maiden score by 15 lengths back in April 2019 at Keeneland over the main track, she was moved to the turf for her next four starts. She won two of those races and finished second once, all against stakes competition.
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04-04-20 07:20 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Oaklawn 4/11
Race 8
5:12 p.m. ET
First up in the sequence is a $61K Allowance race for four year olds and up at a distance of one mile with 12 runners.
Let’s start toward the outside with No. 9 Proverb (9-2), who is trained by Richard Baltas and ridden by Joel Rosario. Last time out was the first off the layoff for Proverb, where he finished in third by 1¾ lengths over a sloppy track. In that race he lacked room, but finished well. Today, he gets the benefit of a drop in class and one of the top riders in the world in Rosario.
With it being the second off the layoff, dropping in class, getting Rosario aboard and hopefully working out a better trip, I’m making Proverb my top choice.
Next we have a longshot in No. 2 All West (20-1). Trained by Wayne Catalano, All West will have Joe Talamo in the saddle. He broke his maiden in impressive fashion last time out, kicking clear to win by four lengths. Since then, he’s posted three strong workouts, the most recent being a bullet five-furlong work. The speed figure number that All West posted in his maiden score is good enough to win this race
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04-11-20 07:40 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Race 8 (Count Fleet)
Time: 5:14 p.m. ET
The No. 9 Whitmore (5-2) is looking for a record third victory in the Count Fleet, and won’t have to face as brutal a foe as he did last year in one of my all-time favorite horses, Mitole.
He could also go over $3 million in career earnings with a win or place effort, and should be able to work out a good stalking trip behind a fair amount of speed. He owns three triple-digit Beyer scores in his past four starts, has had a ton of success at Oaklawn Park, and is my clear top selection even in a loaded race.
The No. 4 Bobby’s Wicked One (3-1) and No. 7 Hidden Scroll (4-1) figure to hook up with one another on the front end, in addition to the other early speed in this race. I don’t really want much of those two at short prices.
Instead, their presence should help to set up a pace scenario for Whitmore, the No. 2 Flagstaff (7-2) who ships in from California, the No. 3 Hog Creek Hustle (15-1), and the deep-closing No. 11 Nitrous (20-1) – and I’ll likely be utilizing that group of four in some single race exotics.
Whitmore and Flagstaff are the “A” options for multi-race wagering.
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04-18-20 07:20 PM |
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