Wolves are in the thick of the Champions League race. They are three points off third place after winning all three of their matches since the restart. After Chelsea’s loss to West Ham United, top four looks very attainable. It’s just a matter of whether Wolves can beat take care of business against the inferior teams, like Arsenal.

Arsenal aren’t really in contention for the Champions League. They’re six points off of fifth place and that may not be a Champions League place. At this point, they’re just trying to get into the Europa League, so they can have a bit more money to spend this transfer window.

TEAM NEWS
Wolves have no injury concerns, according to PremierInjuries.com. Nuno Espirito Santo has a full squad to pick from.

Arsenal, on the other hand, has multiple injuries to deal with. Pablo Mari, Calum Chambers, Gabriel Martinelli and Bernd Leno are all ruled out, while Mesut Ozil will have a late fitness test, according to PremierInjuries.com.

KEY PLAYERS
Wolves: Raul Jimenez


Jimenez is having a dream season, with 15 goals and six assists. He has contributed to 47% of the teams Premier League goals this season and is a big reason why Wolves are as high in the table as they are. He’ll look to continue his hot season and take advantage of Arsenal’s error-prone centerbacks.

Arsenal: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

Aubameyang added two more goals to his tally on Wednesday, getting him to 50 Premier League goals faster than anyone in Arsenal history. It also took him to the top of the Premier League goal charts, tied with Jamie Vardy. He’ll look to grab his second golden boot in England while pushing Arsenal as far as he can.

PREDICTION
Wolves should win this match pretty comfortably. They’re clearly the better team, they have more to play for and they are at home.

Prediction: 2-0 Wolves

Chelsea will need to get back to winning ways on Saturday, with the race to qualify for next season’s Champions League heating up. They welcome Watford to Stamford Bridge, who are low on confidence. This is a big test of Frank Lampard and the inexperienced manager will be hoping to show that he can get things back on course following a very poor performance at West Ham. The spending done already shows that the Blues are looking to become title contenders once more. However, they need to finish this season off strongly first.

There are only three points separating four clubs in the race for a Champions League place. Lampard will be ruing the missed opportunity during the week, as they could have moved above Leicester City into third. There is no more room for inconsistency, with Wolves and Manchester United in rampant form. This is a match that the Blues should be winning. The big concern for supporters is the frailties from set pieces. Nigel Pearson will be aware of that and it will be targeted by the visitors. There simply must be an improvement in the Chelsea defence. If there isn’t, their position in the top four will be under threat.

Watford have taken only one point since the restart and they are living dangerously just one place above the bottom three. There was an initial surge up the table under Pearson, but the performances have been disappointing since the restart. Their next three fixtures look winnable following their trip to Stamford Bridge. Although this isn’t one they are expected to win, there needs to be an improvement in performance. Chelsea have shown weaknesses over the last seven days. The Hornets need to be positive and try to target them.

INTERESTING STATS
Willian has become the first Premier League player to score in all 12 months of the calendar year.

Watford have now won just one of their last ten Premier League matches. This came against champions Liverpool.

KEY MEN
Pulisic


The USA international has added a spark to the Chelsea attack in recent weeks. There have been inconsistent periods since his arrival in England, but he now looks ready to nail down a regular starting position. He has scored twice since the restart and his overall contribution has allowed him to stand out. Against West Ham, his direct approach caused them a lot of problems and he was the player that was fouled in the build up for both of the goals. Pulisic now has seven Premier League goals during his debut season in an injury hit campaign. His own personal aim will be to reach 10 before the end of the campaign, helping the team to a top four finish in the process. Watford have looked shaky at the back in recent weeks. Southampton caused them a lot of issues last weekend, with Danny Ings’ directness the main threat. Pulisic is similar in his movement, as he is excellent at finding an angle to get a shot away. He could be the player to do the damage on Saturday.

Sarr

It has been difficult to find too many positives for Watford this season. They have been battling at the bottom of the table for the entire campaign. However, they have shown their shrewdness in the transfer window with the signing of Ismaila Sarr. The former Rennes winger could be the key to their survival, as he looks most likely to score the goals. The 22-year-old has contributed five goals and three assists, with his most eye-catching performance coming against Liverpool. He scored a brace against the champions. Pearson will be hoping that he can thrive against another top-six team. Chelsea leave a lot of space at the back and the pace of Sarr could cause them all sorts of problems.

TEAM NEWS
Fikayo Tomori could be back to feature in the matchday squad. Given the poor performances of the centre backs against West Ham, he could be pushing for recall. Olivier Giroud could be in line for a start.

Watford have no fresh injury concerns. Daryl Janmaat, Gerard Deulofeu and Isaac Success are all long term absentees.

VERDICT
This is a huge test of Chelsea’s mental strength following their defeat to West Ham. They need to show their winning mentality and beat a poor Watford team. They have the better players, but their defensive frailties are a huge concern for Frank Lampard and his staff. That said, they should be able to get back to winning ways against a team that have shown little since the resumption.

Chelsea 2-0 Watford

Arsenal haven’t won any of their last 17 Premier League away games against sides starting the day higher than them in the table (W0-D5-L12), with their last such victory coming in September 2015 against Leicester (5-2).

Saturday afternoon’s Premier League matchup between Chelsea and Watford has major implications at both ends of the table.

Chelsea are suddenly in danger of falling out of the top four after a loss to West Ham on Wednesday. Wolves and Manchester United are both big favorites on Saturday, so the pressure could be turned up even higher by the time this match kicks off.

Watford are only one point above the relegation zone and will need to pick up points wherever they can if they want to survive.

Chelsea
Chelsea stumbled on Wednesday, losing as a big favorite to West Ham. The Blues controlled most of the second half, but they were caught too far up the pitch on multiple occasions, which ended up costing them the game.

Despite the loss to West Ham, Chelsea’s offense has been firing on all cylinders since the restart. The Blues created 7.3 expected goals in their first three games, including 4.23 in a victory over Man City.

Even though they’ve only won eight of 16 matches at Stamford Bridge this season, the Blues have a +1.60 expected goal differential (2.34 xGF, 0.74 xGA) in those games and they have the second-most expected points at home this season.

With a high-octane offense and a shaky defense, Chelsea matches typically feature plenty of scoring. On average, games featuring the Blues see 3.17 total expected goals so it’s easy to see why 66% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals.

Frank Lampard switched to a 4-3-3 formation halfway through the season and the change in tactics has paid huge dividends. The switch in tactics has specifically benefited Willian and Christian Pulisic, who have combined for five of Chelsea’s six goals since the restart.

Watford
Project Restart has not been kind to the Hornets, who have taken just one point from their last three matches. Watford looked especially terrible against Southampton in a 3-1 loss at home on Sunday.

The Hornets have just one win in their last 10 matches and their offense has been sputtering, averaging just 1.22 xG per match in that span.

Nigel Pearson’s squad typically lines up in a 4-2-3-1, which usually leads to a lot of goals. That formation provides the Hornets with multiple options going forward and it encourages creativity from their attacking players.

The downside of lining up in the 4-2-3-1 is that it puts a lot of pressure on the defense and puts the fullbacks in a lot of 1-on-1 situations. This has led to some high-scoring games. Watford averages 2.93 total expected goals when they play out of the 4-2-3-1.

thank you for everything, i've been following your DRAWS, you're killing it

Cagliari and Atalanta's combined h/a goal records this season:

89% Over 1.5
71% Over 2.5
71% BTTS
50% Over 3.5
39% Over 4.5
14% Failed To Score
3.97 Goals Per-Game

Only Liverpool have kept more Premier League clean sheets than Burnley this season (13), with no side having kept more at home than the Clarets (8).

Life at the bottom of the Premier League table can be miserable and stressful.

For West Ham United, it’s been just that as of late. However, a stunning home win against powerhouse Chelsea on Wednesday has the club believing it can steer clear of the relegation zone with another solid result Sunday when it journeys north to face Newcastle United.

West Ham picked up that 3-2 victory Wednesday, pushing it three points clear of the drop area on 30 points. It was a much-needed triumph for manager David Moyes.

Newcastle comes into this match boasting its best run of form over the course of its entire season. The Magpies earned a 4-1 win against Bournemouth last time out.

West Ham, currently 16th in expected goals (38.32) in the Premier League, have been terrible on the road as of late, dropping their last seven league matches away from London Stadium. The club has been shut out four times during that stretch.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Defensively, West Ham hasn’t been any better and sits 19th in the league in expected goals against (62.16) out of 20 clubs. That porous display in the back has been glorified on the road, where the Hammers have and conceded at least two goals in five of those matches.

Newcastle has been slightly better in its defensive third of the pitch, ranking 16th in expected goals against (55.41) this season. On the bright side, the Magpies have recorded four shutouts in their last eight league tilts.

Prior to global soccer being shut down, the Magpies averaged 0.9 goals per league match. That lack of scoring prowess has led them to just 30.97 expected goals, which is second to last in the league. However, Newcastle has done a complete 180-degree turn since returning to the pitch, averaging close to three goals (2.7 to be exact) in Premier League competition.

Combine Newcastle’s output with a West Ham club really needing more points to get clear of the drop zone and you have the makings of a wide-open affair.

After their draw with Atletico Madrid on Tuesday, Barcelona are on the ropes in the La Liga title race. With Real Madrid having a fairly easy schedule to finish the season, Villarreal could deliver the knockout punch to Barcelona on Sunday.

Villareal are not just here to play spoiler, either. El Submarino Amarillo are only three points behind Sevilla for fourth place, so a spot in next season’s Champions League is not out of reach.

Villarreal
Outside of Real Madrid, Villarreal has been the best team in La Liga since the restart. In their last six matches, El Submarino Amarillo has earned 16 of a possible 18 points, boasting a +5.38 expected goal differential.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

It’s no coincidence that Villareal’s success coincides with Javier Calleja’s decision to switch to a 4-4-2 formation, which allows his side to keep eight players behind the ball and create a defensive wall that works in unison to deny the opposition the ability to play through the center or between the lines. This forces opponents to play through the wide areas to access the penalty area.

Villreal are creating 2.06 expected goals and conceding just 0.92 expected goals per match since the switch.

Lionel Messi and company will be a different animal to defend, but I think El Submarino Amarillo will be up to the task.

Barcelona
Barca have dropped six points since the restart. Messi is doing his best to put the entire team on his back, but he isn’t getting enough support. The Argentine has scored or assisted on eight of Barcelona’s 10 goals since play resumed. He will need a lot more help from the players around him if Barcelona are going to get back into the title race.

Barcelona are “only” averaging 1.44 points per game on the road this season — their lowest mark in more than a decade — and their offense is only producing 1.47 xG per match away from Camp Nou, which is also well below Barca’s high standards.

The Blaugrana have only taken nine points eight road matches against the top-10 teams in La Liga. That is a disappointing number for a team expected to be one of the best in all of Europe.

Expected goal models show that these struggles are all too real for Barcelona as they’ve lost the xG battle, 12.21-9.0, in those eight matches.

Most bettors will look at this line and automatically take Barcelona based on the name alone, and 92% of the early tickets are on Barca

Liverpool vs Aston Villa | Sunday 5th July 2020, 11:30

Much has been said and written about Liverpool seemingly having spent the last week partying but I don’t think they were as bad against Manchester City as both pundits – and the scoreline – suggested. They got in to plenty of dangerous areas and hit the post themselves before a couple of really poor pieces of defending meant that the game was out of sight.

I therefore think that the market has over-reacted to that defeat and cannot see why they are 1/3 to beat Aston Villa when Manchester United are 1/5 to overcome Bournemouth.

Liverpool have won all 16 home league matches this season, with 10 of these by two goals or more. They face an Aston Villa side who may have more to play for but have only managed two points – and two goals – from four Premier League games since the top flight resumed. Villa have lost 11 of their 16 matches on their travels, including 3-0 against Manchester City and 4-0 against Leicester.

I was trying to find some examples of positive away performances from Villa and the only ones I could find were away victories against Norwich and Burnley and a 2-2 draw at Old Trafford. All of these games were played at least six months ago and against sides that do not possess the quality of this Liverpool outfit.

Villarreal vs Barcelona | Sunday 5th July 2020, 4:00

Villarreal are on a serious roll right now. The Yellow Submarine have taken 16 points from six matches since the restart to put them within three points of fourth-placed Sevilla; they now have a genuine chance of qualifying for the Champions League group stage for the first time in almost a decade.

Barcelona, however, are stuttering by their own high standards. They’ve dropped six points in six games since the restart, having drawn their last two games 2-2. While their performance against Atletico was improved compared to the one at Celta Vigo last weekend, they’re a remarkably disjointed side at present under manager Quique Setién.

Consequently, the Catalans are now four points behind leaders Real Madrid – who have the chance to extend that gap to seven points when they head to Athletic Bilbao earlier in the day – so this is a must-win game for Barca if they are to have any realistic chance of catching their arch-rivals.

With that in mind, it’s difficult to see anything but goals here. Villarreal may have kept five clean sheets since the restart, but they did concede two at home to Sevilla (comfortably the best side they’ve faced so far), so Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez should be able to combine for at least one goal, even if the support around them is sorely lacking at the moment.

Equally, only Barca and Real have scored more goals than Villarreal in La Liga this season. Indeed, somewhat impressively, they’ve failed to score in just three matches all season. With the likes of Gerard Moreno, Paco Alcácer and Carlos Bacca to choose from upfront, I really can’t see Barca’s ageing and increasingly leaky back-line shutting them out.

With Both Teams To Score around the meagre 4/7 mark, though, I’m content to add Over 2.5 Goals to the mix to get very close to evens at 19/20 with William Hill.

Both sides have seen this goal line land in almost two-thirds of their matches this season, and with the amount of firepower on display in a match Barca simply have to attack, I’m confident it will again here.

Cagliari vs Atalanta | Sunday 5th July 2020, 1:30

Three things are guaranteed in life: death, taxes, and goals in Atalanta games.

While Atalanta’s performance in the last few campaigns has been remarkable for a club of their budget – with a forthcoming Champions League quarter-final in August their just reward – their average of 4.25 goals per-game this season is arguably even more so.

To put that into perspective, no other side in Europe’s top five leagues average more than Bayern Munich’s 3.88 goals per-game, while only Bayern and Dortmund have scored more goals (with five games extra played!).

The Bergamo-based side have certainly restarted where they left off prior to COVID-19 sadly devastating the region in early March, winning all four matches to move 12 points clear of fifth-placed Roma and all but seal the fourth and final Champions League qualification spot in Serie A.

Cagliari, meanwhile, have performed better than many observers tipped them to, taking seven points from four games to move into the top half. However, they’ve kept just one clean sheet at home all season, while Atalanta have failed to score in only one game on the road, so it’s fair to say the free-scoring side should have no trouble adding to their tally here.

Both Teams To Score has landed in 71% of Cagliari’s home and Atalanta’s away matches this season, so it’s certainly got a good chance here. Neither side has much to lose, so can play with plenty of freedom; similarly to the Villarreal/Barca match, then, I’m more than happy to throw Over 2.5 Goals into the mix to increase the odds to closer to evens at 5/6 with Sky Bet.

That goal line has landed in 83% of Atalanta’s matches overall this season and 64% of Cagliari’s home matches.

Osasuna vs Getafe | Sunday 5th July 2020, 1:30

It’s been a successful first season back in La Liga for Osasuna, with three successive wins guiding them away from any relegation concerns into 11th place.

Getafe, meanwhile, look set to miss out on a Champions League qualification spot having spent most of the season in the top four. They’ve won just once since the restart, leaving them five points behind fourth-placed Sevilla, with the aforementioned Villarreal flying past them, too.

Liverpool FC
-1.5, -2 ... -122

glta

After being crowned Premier League champions last week, there might not be a lot left to be played for Liverpool in the remaining games, but the fight to stay up at the bottom is intense and this Sunday night, the Reds find themselves playing a key role in this fight. They host Aston Villa, who at the time of writing are 18th in the table – a point below Watford and three points behind West Ham. For Villa, three points at Anfield could go a long way in saving their season, while Liverpool will be playing for their wounded pride after a 4-0 loss to the most likely runners up Manchester City.

Liverpool were not as poor on Thursday night as the scoreline suggests. In fact, they were the first with a shot on target and the first to hit the post. Yet, as Klopp admitted in the pre-match interview on Friday, they made four mistakes against a side that punishes the smallest of mistakes. The way the Reds began the game at Etihad it is clear that they are not satisfied with just the crown of champions. They want to win this title in some style with some hard-to-beat records in tow. One of them – 101 points in the season – is still achievable if they win the rest of their games. A win on Sunday will keep that hope alive. It will also keep alive the hope of not dropping a single point at home for the entire season. But in Klopp’s view more importantly, a win on Sunday will show that the Reds are still hungry and will send a signal of their intent for the next season as well.

Aston Villa on the other hand have no such luxuries of only keeping hopes of records alive. They will be fighting to extend their Premier League stint by at least one more season. But they are winless in eight Premier League games (D2 L6), the longest current winless run in the competition. That run has brought them parallel to Bournemouth, who sit in 19th with an almost identical record (27 points and GD of -24). But, the run-in for Villa is not an easy one, as they host Manchester United after the game at Anfield, and also Arsenal in the penultimate game of their season. Dean Smith needs to keep his team motivated to fight till the end in what could be a relegation showdown with West Ham on the final match day. A win against the champions at their fortress would go a long way in getting the team motivated.

INTERESTING STATS
This will be Liverpool’s first home league match since being confirmed Premier League champions for the first time – the Reds are unbeaten in 56 home league games, winning the last 23 in row. They have also won their last four Premier League games against Aston Villa by an aggregate score of 13-3.
But Aston Villa are a tricky set of visitors to visit Anfield. They have only lost one of their last five Premier League away games against Liverpool (W2 D2), though it was in their last such visit in September 2015.
In fact, five Aston Villa’s last six Premier League wins against Liverpool have been at Anfield in a run stretching back to April 1999. This fixture has seen more away wins than any other fixture in Premier League history (20 away wins – 14 for the Reds).
Liverpool have lost just one of their last 24 home Premier League matches against teams in the relegation zone (W17 D6, losing 3-2 against Swansea City in January 2017. On the other hand, Villa have lost 13 of their last 15 away Premier League games against the side starting the day top of the table (D2), since beating Leeds 2-1 in January 2000.
KEY MEN
MOHAMED SALAH
Mohamed Salah has scored 49 Premier League home goals in just 59 appearances for Liverpool and Chelsea combined. Should Salah score on Sunday, he would be second quickest to 50 home goals after Alan Shearer (47 games). Salah, with his 17 goals and 7 assists is the leading goal contributor for Liverpool. With his 4 shots and 2 key passes in the loss to Manchester City, it was not for the want of effort that he and his side returned goal-less. The Egyptian will be raring to make amends against Villa on Sunday.

JACK GREALISH
Grealish has contributed 13 goals (7 scored and 6 assisted) out of Villa’s 36 goals so far this season. But his goal contributions have dried up recently, as he has not scored for 9 games, since the 1-1 draw against Brighton in January. He has not provided any assists as well for the last six games, last assisting a goal against Tottenham in February. Unsurprisingly, Grealish’s dry run coincides largely with Villa’s win-less run as well. Dean Smith needs to make sure that his team’s most talented player finds his mojo soon, if his side are to stay up this season.

TEAM NEWS
Pundits in the media expect Jurgen Klopp to rotate his side at least a bit after the loss against City. But the German was unequivocal in saying that he is not going to hand out Premier League starts as Christmas presents to youngsters unless they are ready. He has a largely fit squad (Shaqiri and Matip being the absentees) and he might want to challenge a largely unchanged XI to come up with a better performance. Alternatively, he might rotate some of his team to keep them ready for slightly more difficult challenges in the run-in.

To Dean Smith’s irritation, Villa have had eight days to prepare for this game, after playing 4 games in 11 days since the restart. But that long wait has not helped Villa in terms of injuries. Tom Heaton, Wesley, Bjorn Engels, and Matt Targett remain injured and unavailable. Frederic Guilbert might be available at least for the bench. An emotional return in goal for ex-Red Pepe Reina could also be on the cards given that Orjan Nyland has been unimpressive in recent fixtures.

VERDICT
If this game had come immediately after Liverpool were crowned champions and if the Reds were not arriving into this game with an injured pride (after their loss at Etihad), then there would have been some hope for Aston Villa to take at least a point out of this game. It would still have been miniscule but it would have been a possibility. However, now we can expect a typical aggrieved Liverpool response on Sunday. It would be a relatively easy win for them if they indeed play like champions.

Liverpool 3 – 1 Liverpool

Recent Form
It’s been a bit of a torrid time for Jose Mourinho so far in the Spurs camp as every time it looks like he’s putting his stamp on the squad, they suffer another setback, this time in the form of a humbling 3-1 defeat to Sheffield United.

The leaves them with just one win in their last nine across all competitions, which included defeats to nil in both legs against Leipzig in the Champions League, as well as getting knocked out of the FA Cup by rock-bottom Norwich.

The Toffees will still feel like they’re in the hunt for a Europa League spot with just three points separating seventh-placed Sheffield United and Carlo Ancelotti’s men in 11th, especially with this being their last encounter with one of the ‘Big Six’ this campaign.

The Italian manager has brought an upsurge in results since his arrival and he remains unbeaten at Goodison Park, though they’ve been less prolific on their travels.

Everton are a balanced W3-D1-L3 on the road under him, with all three victories coming against bottom-half sides, while they’ve suffered defeat against the only top sides they’ve played on that run in Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City.

With Spurs’ recent run of results, as well as Everton’s away record, we’re not 100% convinced on backing either side on the outright.

Both Teams To Score
Five of Everton’s seven road trips under Ancelotti have seen a minimum of three goals, including all three with top-half sides. While we usually associate Mourinho with shutting up shop and keeping games tight, that’s not exactly been the narrative in North London, with no real pattern or consistency developing.

That’s led to goals at both ends of the pitch, with six of the last seven seeing both sides find the net. They’ve found the net in each of their last nine, while Everton have still at least scored on the road in six of their seven games, only drawing a blank against an in-form Chelsea.

The case for both to register is backed up by the attacking talent on display. This game comes too soon for Theo Walcott, though another former Arsenal man, Alex Iwobi, has provided a threat in his absence.

The Merseyside club have scored 50% more goals this season when Iwobi starts, and with the likes of Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison more than capable of finding the net, they definitely can cause their host’s backline some problems.

It’s a similar story for the Lilywhites with Harry Kane back in the picture, as they’ve plundered 28% more goals when the England Striker starts for them over the same period. Although it’s a relatively short price, it seems the best option for a close contest like this.

7/5 EPL
Liverpool FC
-1.5, -2 ... -122 ........win 1 3/4

glta