There have been about 5.5 teams with double-digit win totals over the past 30 NFL seasons.

There are six posted at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook for 2019:

New England Patriots (11): Their ninth consecutive season with a double-digit win total.

Kansas City Chiefs (10.5): Their first double-digit win total since 2004.

Los Angeles Rams (10.5): With their win total of 10 in 2018, this will be the first time the Rams will have double-digit win totals in consecutive seasons since 2000-02.

New Orleans Saints (10.5): Their fourth double-digit win total with Drew Brees. They’ve won just one playoff game the previous three of such seasons.

Indianapolis Colts (10): The Colts first double-digit win total since 2015 when their win total was set at 10.5 in Andrew Luck’s 4th year. Colts ended up winning 8 games and missing the playoffs for the first time in four seasons.

Philadelphia Eagles (10): The Eagles have a double-digit win total in consecutive years for the first time since 2011-12. In both 2011 and 2012, the Eagles missed the playoffs, going 12-20 straight up.

But for any bettor considering taking the over on any of these six win totals, there’s a cautionary tale about the history of doing so.

Only 43 of the 104 teams with double-digit win totals over the past 20 years have exceeded their number. The most alarming aspect of that 40.2% is the fact that those 104 teams have gone under their win total by almost three-quarters of a full win (-0.74).

There’s been a distinct difference between the teams that have been on the edge of great expectations — a win total of 11 or more — and teams simply expected to win around 10 games over the past 30 years.

There have been 50 teams with a win total of 11 or more over the past 30 years, which averages out to about 1.7 teams per season. Those 50 teams are 25-22-3 (53.2%) to the over in that span, including 11-6-2 (64.7%) to the over since 2006.

The advantage comes with teams valued at the 10 and 10.5 mark. The 100 teams with such win totals over the past 30 years are 37-63-7 (37%) to the under, going under the win total by almost full win (-0.93).

Over the past 30 years, no team has had more double-digit win total seasons than the Patriots (17); the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers are right behind with 14 each.

The Patriots have had a double-digit win total 14 times under Bill Belichick (including 2019). They’re 9-3-2 to the over in the Belichick era, going over their win total by more than a full win per year (+1.1).

When looking at which of the 161 teams with a double-digit win total over the past three decades exceeded expectations the most, you have to point to the obvious: The 2007 Patriots. They went 16-0 that regular season to go over their win total by 4.5 games — the largest margin of the past 30 years.

feel free to add here, to help each other out
GL

thx mike !!

When you’re handicapping NFL season win totals, sometimes turnovers can be an indicator of future progression/regression.

From 2005-17, 19 teams have been minus-16 or worse in turnovers for a season; those 19 teams won an average of 5.1 more games the following season.

Usually when a team is so awful in turnovers, it is because the QB got hurt or it results in a coaching change, which creates positive results.

Last year, 49ers/Buccaneers had the worst turnover ratios in the NFL.

San Francisco was -25; they lost QB Garoppolo before the season.

Tampa Bay was -18; they fired their coach and hired Bruce Arians, who figures to improve QB Jameis Winston’s play this season.

Over last four seasons, 19 teams that were -10 or worse in turnovers won an average of 3.34 more games the following season.

Six teams — the Patriots, Chiefs, Rams, Saints, Colts and Eagles — have win totals of 10 or more games for the 2019 season. Based on oddsmakers expectations, fans of these franchises have to feel good about their playoff chances.

Recent history, however, tells us these teams are not a lock for the postseason. In 2018, six teams again entered the season with a win total of 10 or more games and three (Steelers, Packers, and Vikings) failed to reach the playoffs.

Naturally, that begs the question: How often do NFL teams with high win totals miss the playoffs?

To find out, we looked at the win totals for every team since 2002 (when the NFL expanded to 32 teams) to see how often teams made or missed the playoffs based on preseason win totals.

Since 2002, there have been 92 teams with a win total of 10 or more games entering a season. Of those squads, 58 (63.0%) reached the playoffs.

The Patriots, Chiefs, Rams, Saints, Colts and Eagles are the most likely teams to play past Week 17 according to the oddsmakers win totals, but history suggests at least two of them won’t participate in the postseason.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Bengals, Giants, Raiders, Cardinals and Dolphins have the slimmest odds to make the postseason. Oddsmakers have given each of these teams a win total of six or fewer games for the upcoming season.

Since 2002, there have been 74 teams with a win total of six or fewer games. Only 10 (13.5%) managed to beat bookmakers’ expectations and reach the playoffs.

But it’s not just the teams at the bottom of the league that have little chance of making the playoffs. Nearly half the league (15 teams) has a win total of eight or fewer games this season. Since 2002, 279 teams have had a win total of eight or fewer games and just 63 (22.6%) have been postseason participants.

Using history as a guide, win totals do an adequate job of predicting which teams will make or miss the playoffs. Variance caused by injuries, player performance and regression, though, can cause teams with a high win total to disappoint and squads with a low win total to surprise.

NFL win totals might be the best indication of whether a team over-performed or underperformed in a season relative to expectations. The efficient NFL betting market sets a line (or expectation), and we can measure teams based on that.

But one question I’ve been curious about is how biases play into win totals. Take last year’s Chicago Bears team for example: They had a win total of 7.5 and easily hit the over, ultimately winning 12 games on the season. That’s a difference of 4.5 wins — easily the highest of the season.

Sentiment is largely high on the Bears for the 2019-20 season, but is it too high after last year’s over-performance (relative to preseason expectations)?

Using historical win totals all the way back from the 2000 season, we can look at how teams have done the next season after going way over or way under their previous season’s win total.

Here’s how teams that have over-performed (as in, won more games than expected and went over the previous season) have done the following season:

Over-performed by at least 1 game: Under went 126-97-12 (56.5%)

Over-performed by at least 2 games: Under went 83-58-10 (58.9%)

Over-performed by at least 3 games: Under went 54-30-6 (64.3%)

Unfortunately for bettors, it’s scary to fade those teams, as they’re largely among some of the best. The four matches for this upcoming season are the Bears, Chiefs, Saints and Rams.

Teams that underperformed by at least one win include the Browns (+1), Titans (+1), Ravens (+1.5), Cowboys (+1.5), Texans (+2.5), Colts (+2.5), Chargers (+2.5) and Seahawks (+2.5).

Likewise, it’s also been profitable to take overs on teams that underperformed the following year. That two-win differential has historically provided the most value, and the teams that match this season are the Vikings (-2), Giants (-2), Jets (-2), Falcons (-2.5), Cardinals (-3), Raiders (-3.5), Packers (-4), Jaguars (-4) and 49ers (-4.5).
And here’s the underperforming teams:

Underperformed by at least 1 game: Over went 125-101-9 (55.3%)

Underperformed by at least 2 games: Over went 95-70-6 (57.6%)

Underperformed by at least 3 games: Over went 60-51-3 (54.1%)

Overall, it seems that biases have crept into win totals, whether it’s because these lines have historically been bet up or whether books have shaded the lines higher or lower knowing the public would overreact after the previous season.

The most profitable situation has been to fade teams that over-performed by three-plus games, as those teams historically hit the under the following season at a 64.3% rate.

Dallas Cowboys
2019 Win Total: 9 (over -110/under -110)
Strength of Schedule Rank: 26

The Cowboys have the lowest Buy/Sell Rating in my model largely due to them going 7-2 in close games, good for an adjusted number of +2.5 wins above expectation. It’s unlikely they will be able to rely on good fortune alone to win 10 games again this year. An 8-9 win season seems about right.

Dallas does have a favorable schedule this year, which will prevent too much regression in the win column. But even with that, I have eight games where I’m projecting a point spread of less than a field goal, so the Cowboys will have to maintain their luck in close games to go over their win total.

Los Angeles Chargers
2019 Win Total: 10 (over +120/under -140)
Strength of Schedule Rank: 12

A few books, including Westgate, bumped this total up to 10, so if you have access to Under 10, that would be ideal. The Chargers get a D- grade in my model, mostly due to their 5-1 record in one-score games last year.

On paper, I feel like they are one of the more complete teams on both sides of the ball; I have them ranked inside the top five of my power ratings. But betting the over on season win totals for good teams typically isn’t going to net you a profit. Bookmakers and bettors are typically aware of what teams should be contenders and that is already factored into the price.

The angle to the under here is the Chargers’ lack of a true home field advantage and regression in one-score games. They currently play at a 27,000-seat soccer stadium where half the crowd typically shows up rooting for the away team. They are going to have to remain lucky in almost every metric I measure in order to clear 10+ wins again this year.

One word of caution before running to bet Under 10: Wait and see what Colts QB Andrew Luck’s status is for Week 1 vs. the Chargers. If he were to miss, it would likely move LA from a 3-point favorite Week 1 to -7.5 or so.

Chiefs Over 10.5 Wins (-125)
The Chiefs went 12-4 last season and should be better on defense with coordinator Steve Spagnuolo replacing Bob Sutton — aka Mr. Don’t Protect The Middle Against Julian Edelman in Overtime of the AFC Championship Game — plus the arrival of difference-makers Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu.

The offense should be better, too, with the addition of rookie weapons Mecole Hardman and Darwin Thompson.

It’s tough to find more than three to four losses on the Chiefs’ schedule. Their three toughest games are on the road at the Chargers, Patriots and Bears, all of which the Chiefs are capable of winning. And the rest of their matchups against formidable opponents — Colts, Texans, Packers and Vikings — come at Arrowhead, where the Chiefs have gone 36-12 (.750) while allowing 17.1 points per game under Andy Reid.

The over is 6-0 under Reid in KC. The over also went 9-4-1 during Reid’s time in Philly. And his starting quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, threw 50 touchdowns and posted the third-best yards per attempt (8.79) of any quarterback to make 15-plus starts since 2005 — and he did this all in career starts Nos. 2-17. Passing efficiently is strongly correlated with winning, so we should expect this year’s version of the Chiefs to keep his perfect over record with the club intact.

Sure, history has taught us to expect regression from outlying performances. But the mistake most people make is treating Reid and Mahomes’ performances as outliers. Reid has consistently proven to beat expectations over the span of more than two decades. And it’s silly to expect a QB who reached elite status in his first season as a starter and has the NFL’s best supporting cast to get worse instead of better.

Bet against Reid and Mahomes and the only thing likely to regress will be your bankroll.

Chargers Over 9.5 Wins (+100)
In 2018, the Chargers overcame a plethora of injuries to finish 12-4 in the AFC West. They lost tight end Hunter Henry (ACL), defensive end Joey Bosa (foot), linebacker Denzel Perryman (LCL) and cornerback Jason Verrett (Achilles) all for a substantial period of time.

This season, they’ve already lost All-Pro safety Derwin James for three to four months with a broken foot, and Melvin Gordon’s holdout continues with minimal hope for a quick resolution. However, there is still a lot to like about a Chargers team that can regress two full games and still cover their over/under win total.

Their schedule, while ranking middle of the league in difficulty, includes the Denver road game off a bye week and a trip to Kansas City in Week 17. The Chargers also get a three-day rest advantage over the Chiefs at Mexico City in Week 11.

With the return of Henry to an already potent offense, our simulations project the Chargers to make the playoffs 57.0% of the time. If they just receive league-average health, if would be a vast improvement over the past two years.

Since 2003, there have been 70 teams that won 12 or more games...

On average those teams won 9.6 games the next season.

Which teams are getting public love? Where is the smart money? Which teams are not interesting anybody at all? We spoke to Jeff Sherman, the VP of Risk Management at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, to break down all 32 Over/Unders.

All odds current as of Sept. 4, 2019.

Arizona Cardinals
Over/Under: 5
Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)

The public often loves to bet on the much-hyped quarterbacks right after the draft and that seems to be what’s happening with Arizona.

“We’ve taken mostly over money, but in small amounts,” Sherman said.

Atlanta Falcons
Over/Under: 8.5
Odds: Over (-140), Under (+120)

Sherman said the Westgate took a $12,000 bet on the Over (8.5) at -120.

Baltimore Ravens
Over/Under: 8.5
Odds: Over (+110), Under (-130)

“Our liability is on the under,” Sherman said.

Buffalo Bills
Over/Under: 7
Odds: Over (-140), Under (+120)

The Bills may have long odds in the Super Bowl market, but the market believes they will be somewhat competent this season. “We took $30,350 on the Over 6.5 at -160 and moved the number from 6.5 to 7,” Sherman said.

Chicago Bears
Over/Under: 9
Odds: Over (-140), Under (+120)

There’s no surprise here. The Bears are entering 2019 with high expectations and plenty of hype, so you’d expect recreational bettors and Bears fans to get down on the over.

“The public is betting the over,” according to Sherman.

Cincinnati Bengals
Over/Under: 6
Odds: Over (+130), Under -150

“We’re skewing a little bit to the Under.”

Cleveland Browns
Over/Under: 9
Odds: Over (+105), Under (-125)

Like the Bears, the Browns have generated a lot of buzz heading into 2019. A lot of times sharp bettors will look to take advantage of narratives driving a team’s number up, but 9 seems to be spot on for Cleveland.

“The number is good. We have pretty even action on both sides of the total,” Sherman said.

Dallas Cowboys
Over/Under: 9
Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)

The Cowboys are one of the most public teams in the NFL so it’s no surprise that Sherman reported that square money is backing the over. There also was no movement on this total after the team announced Ezekiel Elliott’s new deal.

“Zeke was baked in,” Sherman noted.

Denver Broncos
Over/Under: 7
Odds: Over (+110), Under (-130)

“We’ve got an accumulation of mostly under money.”

Detroit Lions
Over/Under: 6.5
Odds: Over (-145), Under (+125)

“We’ve got more over money than under money at this point.”

Green Bay Packers
Over/Under: 9
Odds: Over (-130), Under (+110)

“We took over bets of $16,500 to win $15,000 and $11,000 to win $10,000.”

Houston Texans
Over/Under: 8.5
Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)

“We have more money on the over.”

Indianapolis Colts
Over/Under: 7.5
Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)

The Colts became one of the most interesting teams in the market after Andrew Luck’s surprising retirement. Prior to Luck’s announcement, the Colts were the odds-on favorite to win the AFC North. Things changed quickly.

“The Colts were the biggest mover thanks to Luck’s retirement,” Sherman said. “We dropped them two full games, and since then we’ve taken more under money but we’ve had good two-way action.”

Jacksonville Jaguars
Over/Under: 8
Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)

“There’s a small amount of support for the over.”

Kansas City Chiefs
Over/Under: 10.5
Odds: Over (-130), Under (+110)

The Chiefs were one win away from making the Super Bowl last season and are among the favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy this season, so it’s no shocker that the public is attracted to the over. The wiseguys seem to disagree though.

“The public is on the over, but the sharps are on the under,” Sherman said.

Los Angeles Chargers
Over/Under: 10
Odds: Over (+120), Under (-140)

“Nothing much to report here.”

Los Angeles Rams
Over/Under: 10.5
Odds: Over (+125), Under (-145)

The Rams are one of the favorites to win the NFC, but smart money is skeptical that they will be able to repeat their performance from 2018. “The sharps have hit the under,” Sherman noted.

Miami Dolphins
Over/Under: 4.5
Odds: Over (+110), Under (-130)

“The public is on the under, we opened it at 5 and moved it down to 4.5.”

Minnesota Vikings
Over/Under: 9
Odds: Over (-130), Under (+110)

“We have a small amount of public money on the over.”

New England Patriots
Over/Under: 11
Odds: Over (-160), Under (+140)

The Pats have the highest win total on the board and it evidently isn’t high enough for casual punters.

“The public is on the over,” Sherman said.

New Orleans Saints
Over/Under: 10.5
Odds: Over (+130), Under (-150)

There are some similarities between the Rams and Saints in the market. The two NFC favorites have the same Over/Under and the betting pattern is similar.

“Sharp money has come in on the under against the Saints,” Sherman said.

New York Giants
Over/Under: 6
Odds: Over (EVEN), Under (-120)

“Public under here.”

New York Jets
Over/Under: 7.5
Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)

“We have quite a bit of under money here.”

Oakland Raiders
Over/Under: 6
Odds: Over (Even), Under (-120)

“Lot of action, some of it has to do with Raiders future move to Vegas. Bunch of support for the under. They have an extremely difficult schedule.”

Philadelphia Eagles
Over: 10
Odds: Over (-160), Under (+140)

“Public has the over here.”

Pittsburgh Steelers
Over/Under: 9.5
Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)

“Money mostly on the over.”

San Francisco 49ers
Over/Under 8
Odds: Over (-130), Under (+110)

“We’ve taken more under money here, but that’s because we have a more aggressive price than other shops.”

Seattle Seahawks
Over/Under: 9
Odds: Over (Even), Under (-120)

“We moved this Over/Under from 8.5 to 9 thanks to action on the over due to the Clowney addition.”

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/Under: 6.5
Odds: Over (-110), Under (-110)

“Solid two-way action.”

Tennessee Titans
Over/Under: 8
Current Odds: Over (+120), Under (-140)

“Nothing to report.”

Washington Redskins
Over/Under: 6
Odds: Over (+130), Under (-150)