The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
|
|
|
|
|
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
CFL Lagniappe
A simple strategy for wagering on CFL totals is to take the under. For many gamblers this is blasphemy, as it is more fun to cheer for points, but the results speak for themselves.
Since 2005, the under in all CFL games has gone 595-507-13 (54.0%). A $100 bettor blindly wagering on the under would have returned a profit of $5,843. Not bad.
This straightforward approach to betting the over/under in football games north of the border gets even better when we look at high-total games
In games with a closing total of more than 52 points, the under has gone 299-210-6 (58.7%) since 2005. Following this strategy has never produced a below .500 season. So why is it profitable to bet the under in high-total games?
For starters, recreational bettors like wagering on the over. In the 1,115 CFL games in our database, a majority of tickets were on the over in 709 (63.6%) games. Oddsmakers anticipate this tendency and will inflate the total, forcing casual bettors to take bad lines. Furthermore, it is easier for a game to go under if there is a high total — that just makes sense.
So while there are many factors to consider before placing a bet, if you don’t have the time, an easy approach to wagering on CFL totals is to take high-total unders. In Week 6 of the 2019 CFL season, three games match this system
|
07-19-19 12:08 AM |
|
|
| |
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
The two best teams in the CFL take the field Friday (7 p.m. ET) in a potential Grey Cup preview. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers (5-0), the top team in the West Division and the league’s last unbeaten squad, will travel to Ontario to face the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (4-1), the leader in the East Division.
Both offenses are explosive as the Ticats lead the CFL in scoring, averaging 37.4 points per game, and the Bombers are second (33.8 ppg). Don’t overlook the defenses, either, as Winnipeg is first in points allowed (16.0 ppg) and Hamilton is second (20.0 ppg).
In the marquee matchup of Week 7, oddsmakers opened the Blue Bombers as 2-point road favorites against the Tiger-Cats. A majority of spread tickets are on Winnipeg as an undefeated favorite, but are the Blue Bombers a smart bet?
Since 2005, undefeated teams in the CFL have gone 61-70-3 (46.6%) against the spread (ATS)
Team’s sporting an unblemished record have gone 37-51-2 (42.0%) ATS when favored. This is a small sample but we see similar results in the NFL. Since 2010, undefeated NFL teams that are favored in their next game have gone 93-122-5 (43.3%) ATS.
Why do unbeaten football teams struggle to cover the spread?
Winning attracts the attention of bettors. Oddsmakers anticipate increased handle on undefeated teams and will inflate their lines, which makes it more difficult for these teams to cover. Plus, there is a natural regression in football as few teams finish a season without losing.
|
07-26-19 11:26 PM |
|
|
| |
|
|