StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

The FoxDen Forum : Powered by vBulletin version 2.3.0 The FoxDen Forum > Sports Handicapping, Trends, and Stats > CFL Lagniappe
Search The Fox Den Forum:

Subscribe to this Thread


Last Message   Next Message
    
Author
Message    Post A Reply
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

CFL Lagniappe

A simple strategy for wagering on CFL totals is to take the under. For many gamblers this is blasphemy, as it is more fun to cheer for points, but the results speak for themselves.

Since 2005, the under in all CFL games has gone 595-507-13 (54.0%). A $100 bettor blindly wagering on the under would have returned a profit of $5,843. Not bad.

This straightforward approach to betting the over/under in football games north of the border gets even better when we look at high-total games

In games with a closing total of more than 52 points, the under has gone 299-210-6 (58.7%) since 2005. Following this strategy has never produced a below .500 season. So why is it profitable to bet the under in high-total games?

For starters, recreational bettors like wagering on the over. In the 1,115 CFL games in our database, a majority of tickets were on the over in 709 (63.6%) games. Oddsmakers anticipate this tendency and will inflate the total, forcing casual bettors to take bad lines. Furthermore, it is easier for a game to go under if there is a high total — that just makes sense.

So while there are many factors to consider before placing a bet, if you don’t have the time, an easy approach to wagering on CFL totals is to take high-total unders. In Week 6 of the 2019 CFL season, three games match this system

Old Post 07-19-19 12:08 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

not a bad start for the week, hoping for a split today
GL

Old Post 07-20-19 10:04 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147

thank you for the nice weekend with these, i also played the first half with you and copperblue




Statfox Bowl Season 2017 Contest 1st PL
Statfox College Football 2016 Contest 1st PL
Statfox MLB 2015 Contest 1st PL
Statfox NBA 15-16 Contest 2nd PL
Statfox NBA 2014 Playoffs Contest 1st PL
Statfox College Baskets 2013 Contest 1st PL

Old Post 07-21-19 01:48 PM
wildcat76 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for wildcat76 Click here to Send wildcat76 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Toby13
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2010
Posts: 14826

Hit that under 54 yesterday.Thanks Mike




6 Rings

Old Post 07-21-19 04:54 PM
Toby13 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Toby13 Click here to Send Toby13 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14867

Cisco

MVP ! MVP !

:)




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 07-23-19 10:19 PM
geg1951 is online now Click Here to See the Profile for geg1951 Click here to Send geg1951 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

totals have dropped from the openers for Thursday night
GL

Old Post 07-24-19 11:20 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

5-1 +3.9

2 more winners tonight !
GL

Old Post 07-26-19 07:38 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

The two best teams in the CFL take the field Friday (7 p.m. ET) in a potential Grey Cup preview. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers (5-0), the top team in the West Division and the league’s last unbeaten squad, will travel to Ontario to face the Hamilton Tiger-Cats (4-1), the leader in the East Division.

Both offenses are explosive as the Ticats lead the CFL in scoring, averaging 37.4 points per game, and the Bombers are second (33.8 ppg). Don’t overlook the defenses, either, as Winnipeg is first in points allowed (16.0 ppg) and Hamilton is second (20.0 ppg).

In the marquee matchup of Week 7, oddsmakers opened the Blue Bombers as 2-point road favorites against the Tiger-Cats. A majority of spread tickets are on Winnipeg as an undefeated favorite, but are the Blue Bombers a smart bet?

Since 2005, undefeated teams in the CFL have gone 61-70-3 (46.6%) against the spread (ATS)

Team’s sporting an unblemished record have gone 37-51-2 (42.0%) ATS when favored. This is a small sample but we see similar results in the NFL. Since 2010, undefeated NFL teams that are favored in their next game have gone 93-122-5 (43.3%) ATS.

Why do unbeaten football teams struggle to cover the spread?

Winning attracts the attention of bettors. Oddsmakers anticipate increased handle on undefeated teams and will inflate their lines, which makes it more difficult for these teams to cover. Plus, there is a natural regression in football as few teams finish a season without losing.

Old Post 07-26-19 11:26 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

6-1 +4.9

ring us up please !
GL

Old Post 07-27-19 08:58 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Brutus5775
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 5388

Congrats




My Goal is to Make Money Not Gamble !!

Old Post 07-27-19 04:13 PM
Brutus5775 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Brutus5775 Click here to Send Brutus5775 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

6-2 +3.8

big fat L
GL

Old Post 07-28-19 01:40 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Post A Reply
  
  Last Message   Next Message

Quick Links: