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HoustonFan
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 6159

Sat MLS

Here is one for Gary.

Houston/DC Draw +230..Risk .5 to win 1.15.

A couple more:

NYCFC/Orlando O3 -109
NYCFC -1, -1.5 -106

Oddsmakers have caught up with the Overs and 2.5s are now tough to find.

GL




"Just Got Paid" -- ZZ Top
2008,2009 NCAA HOF Battle of the Brackets Champion

Old Post 03-17-18 06:56 PM
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

DC United vs Houston is the first match of the season where the model has projected a draw price lower than market value.

As I write this, the best draw price in the market is 3.40. After I remove the bookmaker margin from the price, I can calculate a market price of 3.48, implying a 28.7% probability. These odds are well above my model price of 2.93 or a 34.15% probability.

What interests me more in this match, however, is the fact that the 0-0, 0-1, 1-0 and 1-1 scorelines (all under 2.5 goals) equal a projected probability of 59.63%. The current Under 2.5 market price is 1.97, a 49% implied probability after removing margins. This 10% difference is a couple of percentage points more than the advantage with the draw.

The league is playing well shy of its 22% average draw rate (just two draws in nineteen matches this season – and none last week). This match has all the projections for a low scoring draw. I will back a full stake on Under 2.5 and a half on the draw.

Old Post 03-17-18 08:32 PM
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
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FA Cup

BetShare
MUN/BRI

Spread
MUN (-1.5) 65%
BRI (+1.5) 35%

ML
Man Utd 50%
Brighton 18%
Draw 32%

Tot (2.5)
Ov 43%
Un 57%

Old Post 03-17-18 08:34 PM
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HoustonFan
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Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 6159

Sat MLS update

Houston/DC Draw +230..Risk .5 to win 1.15...DC scores in the last min to get me this WINNER. final 2-2

5-3
+1.80

A couple more pending

NYCFC/Orlando O3 -109
NYCFC -1, -1.5 -106

Oddsmakers have caught up with the Overs and 2.5s are now tough to find.




"Just Got Paid" -- ZZ Top
2008,2009 NCAA HOF Battle of the Brackets Champion

Old Post 03-17-18 09:39 PM
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

HF

great calls
GL

Old Post 03-17-18 09:48 PM
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HoustonFan
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 6159

Sat MLS Results

Houston/DC Draw +230..Risk .5 to win 1.15...DC scores in the last min to get me this WINNER. final 2-2

5-3
+1.80

NYCFC/Orlando O3 -109....L
NYCFC -1, -1.5 -106.........W

6-4
+1.71 units




"Just Got Paid" -- ZZ Top
2008,2009 NCAA HOF Battle of the Brackets Champion

Old Post 03-18-18 12:20 AM
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msudogs
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Biggest payouts in Europe’s top leagues today

Getafe +440 at Sociedad
Juventus/SPAL Draw +400
Rennes +300 at Bordeaux
Coruna/Palmas Draw +290
M’Gladbach/Hoff Draw +280
Montpelier/Dijon Draw +280
Sassuolo +275 at Udinese

Old Post 03-18-18 12:37 AM
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geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

1-1 +106

355730642
Kaizer Chiefs DRAW +206 ....WIN

355730643 Lamontville Golden Arrows FC DRAW +195......LOSS




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 03-18-18 02:48 PM
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

After breezing past some lower league sides, Leicester City will have their first real test in the FA Cup as they welcome defending Premier League champions Chelsea to the King Power Stadium. The Foxes have outscored their opponents 8-1 in the first three rounds, including a big 5-1 win over Peterborough. They’ll hope that they can carry their lower league form over to their match against Chelsea and push them to the semi-finals of the FA Cup.

Chelsea are coming off a crushing elimination in the Champions League against Barcelona. After being sent packing in one competition already this week, Antonio Conte will be desperate to go through in the FA Cup. Luckily. Leicester lack a certain Lionel Messi, so the Blues will hope they can use their talent and not go out of a second competition in a week.

TEAM NEWS
Leicester will be without Daniel Amartey, but they will have the rest of their squad available to be selected, according to Physioroom.com.

Chelsea will be without David Luiz and Ross Barkley with an ankle and a hamstring injury but will have everyone else available, according to Physioroom.com.

KEY PLAYERS
LEICESTER CITY: JAMIE VARDY
Leicester City have pushed up the table after a slow start to the season and much of that is due to the form of Vardy. He has scored six goals in his last eight appearances, including the Foxes’ only goal against Sheffield United in the last round of the FA Cup. Chelsea have struggled to score at times this season, so a goal or two from Vardy could be enough to send Leicester through to the semi-finals.

CHELSEA: EDEN HAZARD
Chelsea have struggled to create offense at times this season, and their goal scoring problems have been amplified by the struggles of big summer signing Alvaro Morata, but they do still have Hazard. The Belgian routinely shows why he is considered one of the best players in the Premier League. He’s Chelsea’s leading scorer in the league despite not being a striker and has carried the Blues at times this season. If Morata and Giroud continue to struggle, they may need Hazard to carry them through this rough patch again.

PREDICTION
Leicester are probably the toughest team outside of the big six left in the cup, but they’ll be hard-pressed to stay in it past this weekend. After their disappointing loss in the Champions League, Chelsea will want to avoid letting their season peter out. They will likely come out looking to put Leicester to the sword and there is only so much they an do if that happens.

PREDICTION: 2-1 CHELSEA

Old Post 03-18-18 06:12 PM
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msudogs
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While Paris Saint-Germain has strolled to the title this season in Ligue 1, Monaco’s win on Friday has put pressure on the two sides below them to ensure that there is still a race for second spot in France.

Sunday’s 4 p.m. ET kickoff sees third host fourth in the French league, and it’s the latest installment of the Olympique Derby between Marseille (-107) and Lyon (+318). While a draw (+257) won’t really suit either side in their respective bids to bridge the gap to the side directly above them, a win either way could have real ramifications on the home stretch this season.

It’s Rudi Garcia’s Marseille that holds the home advantage and, at present, a five-point lead over their visitors this weekend. A victory this time out would not only ensure that they aren’t cut adrift of reigning champions Monaco — moving back to within four points — but also all but cement them in that crucial third place, which earns a spot in the Champions League qualification rounds.

Lyon, then, must avoid defeat if they want to be in the fight for that spot, though a win for the away side would all but guarantee that the two bitter rivals will fight for third and end their rival’s hopes of an automatic route into Europe’s elite club competition.

It’s high stakes at the Stade Velodrome, then, with more than just bragging rights to play for in this long-standing crunch match.
There are also plenty of other factors to consider when making your bets on Sunday, not least being the fact that the home side had a trip to Bilbao to contend with on Thursday night. It certainly helps that it was a successful one, however, booking their place in the last eight of the Europa League.

Lyon was also in action in the same competition but were playing at home, which makes their exit at the hands of CSKA Moscow — having managed a narrow victory in the first leg in Russia — all the more damaging to morale. Bruno Genesio’s charges have been on a poor run of late in general, too, crashing out of the Coupe de France earlier this month and losing ground in the league after a six-game winless streak, which came to an end last week with a 1-0 win over Caen.

Marseille will be in high spirits by comparison, and are rightly favorites to get a positive result once again against a Lyon side that has struggled in the absence of star man Nabil Fekir (pictured above). The France international has been a real star in Ligue 1 this season and leads the way for Les Gones in both goals (16) and assists (six) thus far, but will be out once again this weekend due to injury.

The hosts, on the other hand, should be at full strength and remain a decent price to claim all three points. Their record at the Stade Velodrome this season has been excellent after all, losing just once in 14 matches and not since September.

In the 17 games that have passed at home since in all competitions, Marseille has won 13 and drawn four despite hosting the likes of PSG and Monaco in that time. Lyon, meanwhile, has picked up just two points from their last four away games and have beaten only two of the current top 10 on the road thus far.

It’s the visitors’ defensive resolve that has crumbled in their travels of late, with just one clean sheet in their last eight away games in Ligue 1. They have, however, scored in every one of said outings, and have found the net in their last 11 away matches in France’s top flight.

It’s little surprise that the odds are low on both teams to score, with Sporting Bet offering the best price on the market (1.65/-154). That’s reasonable value nonetheless given the attacking talent that will be on display, but if it’s a longer price you are after, then multiple bookmakers are offering 3.60 (+260) on a home win with both teams to score.

There hasn’t been an away win when these two sides have met at either venue in their last 10 encounters, so Lyon certainly has an uphill task. There should be plenty of entertainment, though, with the Olympique Derby a fitting way to bring this weekend’s European action to a close.

Old Post 03-18-18 09:40 PM
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