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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

The 175th Manchester derby is upon us and it could just be the most important fixture these two sides have had in the Premier League since December 2012.

Manchester United have been phenomenal at home. There’s been question marks early on as to whether the Portuguese could ever really imprint his style on Man United but with a 40 game unbeaten streak at home that stretches back to September 2016 (a club record), Mourinho has quite evidently answered it in a way only he could. United are not only unbeaten at home this season – but they are doing it emphatically this season conceding only once at Old Trafford in 2017/18.

But Sunday will be a different kettle of fish altogether as the Red Devils come up against a side who not only enjoy an eight-point advantage but also know that 3 points at Old Trafford would provide them the ultimate boost towards winning the league title for the first time in four years.

Manchester City have been the best side in the country by some distance – and it is showing in the league table. The Blues have racked up the wins this season – a remarkable 13 game winning run in the Premier League and could claim an all-time Premier League record to themselves, should they extend that string of results, on Sunday. Pep Guardiola has transformed this side from an inconsistent yet good-to-watch attacking side, to a match-winning machine who would have a go right til the very end to get the result. Having won the last three games by a late goal, City have demonstrated the other side of them – that separates good from the great.


Despite losing their most recent Champions League encounter to Shakthar Donetsk, the blues are well equipped to handle the threat of their cross-town rivals and it will be fascinating to see if Guardiola could pull out another big result out of the hat on Sunday.

Team News

Although Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Phil Jones and Nemanja Matic are available for United, midfielder Marouane Fellaini will be assessed ahead of the game. Midfielder Paul Pogba starts a three-match ban on Sunday after he was sent off in last weekend’s win at Arsenal, joining captain Michael Carrick and defender Eric Bailly on the sidelines.

Manchester City playmaker David Silva is fit for the Old Trafford trip after overcoming a knock but captain Vincent Kompany is doubtful with an unspecified problem. Makeshift left-back Fabian Delph has recovered from a sickness bug but defenders John Stones (hamstring) and Benjamin Mendy (knee) are still out.

Interesting Numbers

After losing four Premier League games in a row against Manchester City, Manchester United have lost just one of their last five derbies against them (W2 D2 L1).
Manchester City have now won 13 successive league matches – a joint-record within a single top-flight season, alongside Chelsea (2016-17), Arsenal (2001-02), Preston and Sunderland (both 1891-92).

Prediction

One of the records is going to have to end on Sunday and I reckon it will be City’s.

Manchester United 1-1 Manchester City

Old Post 12-10-17 12:22 PM
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msudogs
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Manchester City have won 13 consecutive Premier League matches and are now just 2 wins away from breaking Arsenal’s win streak of 14 set in 2001-02. They were +1000 to break the streak a month ago and are now listed at +200 to do so with Man United and Swansea standing in the way. On Sunday, Man City are slight +123 favorites to win at Old Trafford.

Now, as an Arsenal fan, am I stuck rooting for Manchester United to break Manchester City’s streak? I think the answer has to be yes, although I don’t feel great about it. Maybe I just shouldn’t turn the TV on during the game, but who am I kidding? This is the match of the year thus far and could make Man City unreachable for the rest of the season. Unless you’re a Man City fan or holding a Man City futures ticket, you’re probably rooting for the title race to open up.

Sunday’s match may be best chance for Man United to get back in the title race– they’re currently 8 points behind Man City with 23 games remaining in the season and +1000 to win the title. A loss would push the difference to 11 points while a win could close the gap to just 5 points. A draw would also be a great result for Man City who are -1000 favorites to win the league, although it would snap their consecutive wins streak. If there’s one thing to be pessimistic about regarding Man City, it’s that they’ve needed late goals in their last two EPL games to escape with wins. They don’t look untouchable in the league lately, and a trip to Old Trafford could burst their bubble.

It’s impossible not to think about Sunday’s Derby without remembering Wayne Rooney’s game-winning bicycle kick to beat Man City back in 2011.


Manchester United went on to win the Premier League title that season, and Rooney admitted it was his best goal for the club. Maybe not the most important or significant, but certainly his best. I can remember watching that game live, hoping Man City would dethrone Man United, but was in awe when Rooney connected. It seemed as if Man City would always be in United’s shadow, but they did go on to win the league the following season, and again in 2013-14. Unless their season goes off the rails, Man City are headed for their 3rd league title in 7 seasons.

Overwhelming Public Support for Manchester United

Manchester City opened +105 for this matchup and moved up to +129 before settling at +123, where the line currently stands. We’ve seen a ton of early line movement toward Man United despite star midfielder Paul Pogba being suspended, with United moving from +287 to +246. Unfortunately Man City will also be missing a key contributor as midfielder David Silva is doubtful with an injury, but his absence wouldn’t be enough to shift the line nearly 20 cents.

We know that it’s usually sharp money responsible for moving a line, but for a massive match like this, an influx of public bettors at +250 can really change the odds. So far we’ve tracked more than 60% of tickets on Manchester United and just 30% on Manchester City. Once again, public bettors are overlooking the draw which has decreased from +265 to +254 since opening despite just 8% of the tickets. Clearly there’s been sharp money on the draw which we’ve tracked through reverse-line movement, and that’s certainly the bet I’m eyeing right now. It also helps that there’s hardly been any movement on the total at 2.5 (o-111), so we could see a 1-1 finish in this one.

Old Post 12-10-17 12:24 PM
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msudogs
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In what is undoubtedly the biggest fixture of the season so far, bettors might find it strange to see Manchester United go into the match as underdogs. However, their opponents are currently on a club-record 13-game win streak in the league (23 unbeaten) and have almost a 90% chance of winning the league.

Manchester United overcame Newcastle’s 12-point lead in 1995/96 and in 2002/03 it was a nine-point gap between themselves and Arsenal. Although the Red Devils let a 12-point lead slip in 1997/98 and lost out to Sunday’s opponents in dramatic fashion in 2011/12 (after being eight points clear with six games left), these examples show that the race for the title isn’t over yet.

We are still yet to reach the halfway point of this season but Manchester City are in imperious form. If Manchester United want to claw back their local rivals, they need to take advantage when they can have a direct influence (by winning the two fixtures against them).

As important as a win is for Jose Mourinho’s side is, they will also be wary of the implications of defeat. If results go against Manchester United this weekend, they could find themselves just four points clear of fifth place in the league table - a run of poor results could soon see them drop out of the Champions League qualification places.

Will Manchester United change their style?

Before Manchester United’s match against Arsenal last weekend, many had labelled Jose Mourinho’s style against the “big six” in the Premier League as boring (particularly when playing away from home - they had scored just one goal and not won a single match in the previous nine).

An enthralling 3-1 win may have changed some opinions but it was Arsenal’s all-out attack that led to such an open game, rather than Manchester United adopting a more offensive approach. Despite playing at home this weekend, Mourinho will still set up to keep the opponents out and hope his side can take advantage of the chances that come their way.

How to bet on soccer: The ultimate soccer betting guide
If the Red Devils are to get anything out of the game on Sunday, they need to prove why they have one of the best defensive records in Europe’s top five leagues - only Barcelona and Atletico Madrid (both 0.5) have a lower average of goals conceded per game compared to Manchester United (0.6).

Manchester City have the highest average of goals per game across the top five leagues in European soccer (3.06), the third-highest shots per game average (18) and are the best at keeping the ball (averaging 66.4% possession with an 88.8% pass completion rate) - they have the ability to create chances so it’s just a case of whether Manchester United can shut them out.

While most Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola encounters tend to focus on the two managers (Guardiola has nine wins, Mourinho four and there have been six draws), analysing the two teams' statistics is a much better way of finding value ahead of this weekend’s Manchester derby.

Manchester City seemed unstoppable after the first 13 games of the season, but since then have struggled to three consecutive 2-1 wins over lesser opposition (each of which required a goal in the last ten minutes) and then succumbed to their first loss in 28 competitive matches against Shakhtar Donetsk on Wednesday.

While Manchester City seem more beatable now than at any point this season, it could be argued that Manchester United’s weaknesses are yet to shine through - the 4.92 expected goals against from their win over Arsenal shows that the defence is perhaps not as sturdy as it may seem.

Mourinho will know that Manchester United are still in the title race but a loss could do some real damage. Although the Red Devils might be expected to be more attacking at home, trying to soak up presser and hit Manchester City on the counter is a game plan that could yield results. A Manchester United win is perhaps being undervalued by bettors and the Under 2.5 goals at 1.90* looks like a sensible bet.

Old Post 12-10-17 12:32 PM
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msudogs
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SOC [200029] TOTAL o2½-118 (ARSENAL vrs SOUTHAMPTON)

26-17-3 +14.64

Old Post 12-10-17 12:54 PM
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HoustonFan
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Registered: Jan 2006
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Parley
Manchester/Man U - BTTS
Marseille ML

1 for 1.2

Manchester/Man U = Draw +250




"Just Got Paid" -- ZZ Top
2008,2009 NCAA HOF Battle of the Brackets Champion

Old Post 12-10-17 01:21 PM
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msudogs
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watching German Bundesliga in the snow is awesome

Old Post 12-10-17 02:56 PM
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msudogs
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SOC [200029] TOTAL o2½-118 (ARSENAL vrs SOUTHAMPTON)..........L

26-18-3 +13.46

Old Post 12-10-17 03:01 PM
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msudogs
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BetShare
LIV/EVE

Spread
LIV (-1.5) 55%
EVE (+1.5) 45%

ML
Liverpool 33%
Everton 27%
Draw 40%

Tot (3)
Ov 75%
Un 25%

Old Post 12-10-17 03:02 PM
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geg1951
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Posts: 14866

Everton FC +1.5 -126

glta




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 12-10-17 03:14 PM
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msudogs
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snow does have an affect on totals here once again with Liverpool/Everton

Old Post 12-10-17 03:30 PM
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msudogs
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BetShare
MUN/MCI

Spread
MUN (0 & +0.5) 78%
MCI (0 & -0.5 ) 22%

ML
Man Utd 30%
Man City 25%
Draw 45%

Tot (3)
Ov 42%
Un 58%

Old Post 12-10-17 04:30 PM
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msudogs
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on the edge these last 4 minutes

Old Post 12-10-17 05:03 PM
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msudogs
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$'s flowing in on the OVER in the Derby

Old Post 12-10-17 05:06 PM
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geg1951
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maybe ..........

3 draws ??????????




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 12-10-17 06:07 PM
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msudogs
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BOOM

there's your over !
GL

Old Post 12-10-17 07:04 PM
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msudogs
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keep an eye on Espanyol/Girona U 2' this afternoon
GL

Old Post 12-11-17 08:42 AM
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geg1951
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rain this morning , moderate wind all day , likely snowing at least at the start.

345487588
Nurnberg v Fortuna Dusseldorf U2.75 -123

glta




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 12-11-17 04:06 PM
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HoustonFan
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Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 6159

Sunday results

Parley
Manchester/Man U - BTTS
Marseille ML

1 for 1.2...WINNER

Manchester/Man U = Draw +250...L

1-1 +.2 units yesterday

Old Post 12-11-17 05:25 PM
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geg1951
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Posts: 14866

12/10

Everton FC +1.5 -126 ......win




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 12-11-17 06:22 PM
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geg1951
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Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

345487588
Nurnberg v Dusseldorf U2.75 -123 .......win




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 12-11-17 11:19 PM
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