we have a full week ahead, let's keep grinding !
GL

If, after Chelsea strolled past Arsenal 2-0 at the start of the 2021/22 season, you told fans of both teams where they'd be in two and a half years, it's unlikely anyone would believe you.

Yet, this is where we've ended up. Chelsea, coming off a Champions League triumph, failed to win anything that year, and after Roman Abramovich was forced to sell the club, it's only gone further downhill for the Blues. There's still a solid opportunity for them to qualify for the Europa League in Mauricio Pochettino's first season, but that will no doubt feel like a disappointment given the amount of money ownership invested in the team over the past few windows.

Arsenal, on the other hand, have undergone a remarkable resurgence. They've defeated Chelsea three of the four times the two clubs have met since then, gotten back into the Champions League, and are very much on the hunt for their first Premier League title under Mikel Arteta. Whether these two London establishments swap outlooks again a couple of campaigns down the road remains to be seen — and feels unlikely for that matter — but right now, Arsenal enter this contest in a much more desirable position and as sizable favorites.

Last time out, the Gunners prevailed at Molineux against Wolves 2-0, which was a nice rebound for Arteta and co. after a calamitous week before. Having exited the Champions League last Wednesday at the hands of Bayern, Arsenal now enter their final midweek fixture of the season — with a complete focus on domestic success — which will be a welcomed sight for a team that was definitely showing signs of fatigue on Saturday.

In the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge, Arsenal needed late goals from Declan Rice and Leandro Trossard to salvage a draw. Despite that fact, along with a shaky start and conceding two goals out of "nothing" situations, they were the better team for the majority of the contest. Arteta shouldn't need to make many changes heading into this match because of what happened in that one, and fitness/energy levels will likely be the biggest determinant of the team he puts out. While it feels strange to say given their histories, Arsenal's game against Tottenham on Sunday is going to be a far bigger challenge than this clash with Chelsea, and having now basically played seven games in three weeks, some slight rotation might be necessary.

Regardless, the Gunners' quality this season is not up for debate. They might not finish top of the pile, but across 33 matches, they've shown they wouldn't be an undeserving champion — both the eye test and data back that up.

Chelsea had a far less enjoyable Saturday than their counterparts in this fixture. Their trip to Wembley for an FA Cup semifinal against Manchester City ended in disappointment, with a late Bernardo Silva goal earning City a 1-0 victory after the Blues squandered quite a few opportunities. Additionally, that result confirmed they'll fail to win a trophy in back-to-back season for the first time in nearly two decades. With silverware off the table, Pochettino's side will be solely concerned with improving their league position, although qualifying for Europe might be more detrimental than helpful for them, as they'd almost certainly fail UEFA's financial regulations.

To make matters worse for the Blues heading into this match, Cole Palmer is ill and seems unlikely to feature, and on top of that, Malo Gusto and Ben Chilwell are undergoing medical assessments. Pochettino has been highly reliant on Palmer's skillset to get Chelsea ticking with the ball, and they became an even less worrying proposition in his absence. In the 2-2 draw in October, Chelsea lined up without a recognized striker, with Conor Gallagher playing at the tip of a 4-2-3-1 press, and in build-up, Gallagher and Palmer played as the double No. 10s in a 4-2-4 structure. Pochettino also started Raheem Sterling on the right, who's an excellent pressing winger, with the pace of Mykhailo Mudryk on the left. In other words, there was a clear emphasis on out-of-possession solidity and taking advantage of transitions, whether those came from turnovers or playing through Arsenal's high press.

Without his top transition threat, without the energy of the home fans to give his side that little bit of additional energy and coming off an emotionally taxing match with only two days of rest in between, Pochettino will have to adapt. How he does that is unknown, but it's virtually a guarantee Chelsea will be worse off.

The line movement following Pochettino expressing his doubt about Palmer's availability says all that needs to be said. Arsenal moneyline opened at -175, and now is -225 in some books. Chelsea will simply struggle to create chances without him, and their backline is also patched together with duct tape at the moment. The Gunners have an opportunity, at home against a weakened opponent in a derby, to put some pressure on Manchester City in the title race, and it's unlikely they will pass it up.