HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 2-games-1:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 2-games-1 irrespective of site order (St. Louis) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 MLB Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 672-231 (.744)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 140-43 (.765)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 91-36 (.717)
series record, MLB only, Finals round: 55-25 (.688)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 450-453 (.498)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 92-91 (.503)
Game 4 record, MLB only, all rounds: 72-55 (.567)
Game 4 record, MLB only, Finals round: 40-40 (.500)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1219 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 MLB Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 2-games-1 @ VVH:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 2-games-1 with site order VVH (St. Louis) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 MLB Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 204-116 (.638)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 37-21 (.638)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 32-18 (.640)
series record, MLB only, Finals round: 17-11 (.607)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 170-150 (.531)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 31-27 (.534)
Game 4 record, MLB only, all rounds: 28-22 (.560)
Game 4 record, MLB only, Finals round: 15-13 (.536)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1219 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 MLB Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading LWW:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading LWW irrespective of site order (St. Louis) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 MLB Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 187-69 (.730)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 38-7 (.844)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 31-8 (.795)
series record, MLB only, Finals round: 16-3 (.842)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 131-125 (.512)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 29-16 (.644)
Game 4 record, MLB only, all rounds: 23-16 (.590)
Game 4 record, MLB only, Finals round: 11-8 (.579)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1219 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 MLB Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading LWW @ VVH:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading LWW with site order VVH (St. Louis) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 MLB Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 92-37 (.713)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 19-6 (.760)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 15-6 (.714)
series record, MLB only, Finals round: 8-2 (.800)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 68-61 (.527)
Game 4 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 15-10 (.600)
Game 4 record, MLB only, all rounds: 11-10 (.524)
Game 4 record, MLB only, Finals round: 6-4 (.600)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1219 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 MLB Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

After Game 3: The St. Louis Cardinals hosted and defeated the Boston Red Sox 5-runs-4 on a run in the bottom of the ninth inning, thereby taking a 2-games-1 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1220. When leading a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the St. Louis Cardinals have a 13-4 series record and an 8-9 Game 4 record. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB/NBA/NHL playoff series 2-games-1, the Boston Red Sox have a 2-5 series record and a 2-5 Game 4 record. In the history of best-of-7 MLB Finals, teams such as St. Louis which post a LWW @ VVH win/site order through three games have an 8-2 series record: Among the eight winners and setting a favorable precedent for the 2013 St. Louis Cardinals are the 1915 Boston Red Sox (series 11) and the 1926 St. Louis Cardinals (series 19); the two losers were the New York Yankees in 1960 (series 137) and 1964 (series 165, to the St. Louis Cardinals – so it is that the 1964 St. Louis Cardinals set a favorable precedent for the 2013 Boston Red Sox). The last MLB/NBA/NHL team to post a LWW @ VVH win/site order through three games of a best-of-7 playoff series was the NHL Boston Bruins in the 2013 NHL Finals (series 1202) – the Chicago Blackhawks defeated the Bruins in that series, and thus set a favorable precedent for the 2013 Boston Red Sox by so doing. Upon leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-1, the St. Louis Cardinals when winning Game 4 have a 4-4 series record; upon leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-1, the St. Louis Cardinals when losing Game 4 have a perfect 9-0 series record (five with home-field advantage, four without).