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msudogs
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Champions League, EPL, Bundesliga

let's get goimg with the next leg in Champions League & EUROPA
GL

Old Post 04-12-21 10:23 PM
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The second leg of the Champions League quarterfinal kicks off this week with spots in the semifinals on the line. In case you missed it, here is where we stand after the first leg:

Manchester City 2 – Dortmund 1
Real Madrid 3 – Liverpool 1
Bayern Munich 2 – PSG 3
Porto 0 – Chelsea 2

There was some fantastic drama in the first leg with Manchester City needing a late Phil Foden goal to earn a win over Dortmund.

Real Madrid dominated Liverpool, holding the Reds to zero shots in the first half and were clinical in front of net to gain a two-goal advantage heading into the second leg.

PSG got their revenge against Bayern Munich from last season’s Champions League final, beating them 3-2 in Munich. It was none other than the main men Neymar and Kylian Mbappe torching them for two goals and two assists.

Chelsea took advantage of their few chances against Porto, earning a 2-0 win behind goals from Mason Mount and Ben Chillwell.

Old Post 04-12-21 11:34 PM
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When betting second legs of competitions like the Champions League, it is vitally important to: 1) know the first leg result; and, 2) know what score the teams that are behind need to advance to the quarterfinals. The team with the most goals between the two legs advances to next round and if there is a tie on aggregate, the team that scored more away goals moves on.

For example, Manchester City is up 2-1 on Dortmund. All the Cityzens need is a draw to advance to the quarterfinals. That means teams who already have a lead are likely to play more defensive than they did in the first leg.

On the flip side of the example, Dortmund has to play very aggressive since they need to make up that one-goal deficit.

Old Post 04-12-21 11:34 PM
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Chelsea’s 2-0 win wasn’t quite as dominant as you would expect. Both Porto and Chelsea were even on expected goals, the difference was the Blues took advantage of their chances in front of net. Both teams played very defensive throughout the first contest and I’d expect the Blues to do the same in the second leg, while Porto will have to play ultra attacking to try and erase the 2-0 deficit.

The 2-0 deficit may be too difficult of a hill to climb for Porto. The reason they are here is because of their defense, which has been a fortress in Primeira Liga play, allowing only 0.94 xG per match. The reason for that is because they play out of a 4-4-2 formation, one of the most defensive formations in soccer. So, they may have to change up the formation for the second leg and play something they’re not used to playing.

The second leg should be routine for Chelsea, who are allowing only 0.53 xG per match under new manager Thomas Tuchel. They’re also creating 1.87 xG per match.

Tactically, Tuchel changed Chelsea’s system to a 3-4-2-1 from the 4-3-3 used by Lampard, which has allowed Chelsea to be more unpredictable. The main objective of the 3-4-2-1 is to completely overwhelm opposing defenses by outnumbering them on the counter attack.

The new formation allows Chelsea some tactical flexibility, to adjust on the fly based on how the match is going. That’s allowed Chelsea to dominate possession and keep opponents on their toes. Chelsea are heavy favorites to advance and only need to draw or lose by one, so we’ll see how much of a defensive mastermind Thomas Tuchel is on Tuesday.

Old Post 04-12-21 11:44 PM
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Real Madrid took a convincing 3-1 advantage against Liverpool, holding the Reds to zero shots in the first half.

Real Madrid has been on a great run in La Liga even since the calendar turned to 2021. Los Blancos just beat their rivals Barcelona 2-1 over the weekend and have won 13 of their 18 matches across all competitions, putting up a +15.73 xGDiff in the process.

Zinedine Zidane’s 4-3-3 system has been completely overwhelming teams this season, as Los Blancos are scoring 1.84 xG per 90 minutes and only allowing 1.00 xG per 90 minutes when playing out of that formation. Zidane used a mid block in the midfield and repeatedly hit Liverpool on the counter attack, taking advantage of the Reds inexperienced centerbacks.

Liverpool finally got their first win at Anfield in over two months this weekend beating Aston Villa 2-1 on a Trent Alexander-Arnold rocket in stoppage time.

However, things haven’t been going great for Jürgen Klopp’s men, who since the beginning of February have created just 1.41 expected goals per match, compared to 2.07 xG in its first 14 fixtures of the season.

The Reds have a major tactical problem at the moment. Usually, Klopp plays an all-out, high press that gives teams fits. Liverpool’s high line at the back also keeps teams from playing long balls up the field, causing most opponents to spend less time on the ball since they’re forced to make quick passes.

The biggest problem for Liverpool in this match is they have to go with an all out attack to try and erase the deficit, which will leave their centerbacks exposed on the counter attack. So, look for Real Madrid to hit Liverpool on the counter attack over and over again.

Old Post 04-12-21 11:44 PM
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Goals from Mason Mount and Ben Chilwell gave Chelsea an impressive 2-0 win and all the momentum coming into their 2nd leg Champions League quarterfinal clash with Porto at Stamford Bridge. Thomas Tuchel’s team warmed up for the game with a superb 4-1 win over Palace and on current form they should advance through to the semi-finals on Tuesday night.

There is something building in South West London that should start to be feared by the rest of the remaining Champions League teams.

Chelsea, under Thomas Tuchel, have taken a serious turn for the better and although their 5-2 defeat against West Brom at the start of the month was a little worrying, they’ve followed that up with two impressive victories, one of which being the reverse fixture with Porto that finished 2-0.

Those two away goals will be hard to overcome for this Portuguese outfit, especially considering the fact that teams that have lost the first leg by that scoreline in the knockout stages of this competition at home, have gone just W1-L6 in the return leg since 2015/16.

All but one of those defeats came with fewer than four goals being seen in the second leg and that could well be the way to go in this one given the nature of Chelsea’s results.

Moreover, that sole victory came when Man Utd did the unimaginable and knocked PSG out with that Marcus Rashford penalty and we certainly can’t see a repeat of that miracle in Paris occurring.

Kai Havertz and Cristian Pulisic look to be coming of age now under Tuchel for the first time, as they were amongst the goals in their 4-1 demolition job of Palace at the weekend.

That takes their record to W12-D3-L1 under current management, conceding just eight goals, and with that sole defeat and five of those leaked goals coming following a 29th minute red card for Thiago Silva, they look extremely difficult to beat, let alone score against.

Porto against the better teams they’ve faced in Champions League thus far – Man City, Juventus and Chelsea – have gone just W1-D1-L3 over 90 minutes, losing both such fixtures on the road and we could be in for a similar story this week.

Sergio Conceicao’s men haven’t been in the best of form over the last couple of months, going W7-D5-L3 over 90 minutes since early February, but they did show tremendous resilience and quality to knock Juventus out of this tournament in the last round.

That said, they have now lost seven of their last 11 trips in this tournament, as six of those seven losses came with fewer than four goals in total with only the free scoring Citizens being able to net three goals.

With that in mind, the home win and a maximum of three goals looks the way to go. That has been the case in all but one of the Blues’ 10 victories under current management

Old Post 04-13-21 08:28 AM
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A Kylian Mbappe brace and one from Marquinhos ensured PSG seized the earlier initiative and a 3-2 advantage coming into the 2nd leg Champions League quarterfinal with Bayern Munich. The defending champions have a mountain to climb if they are to overturn the deficit and with talisman Robert Lewandowski still not available, PSG look form favourites to advance through to the semi-finals.

These two played out a pulsating five-goal thriller last week and although the French side departed the Allianz Arena with the win, accompanied by three crucial away goals, it was Bayern who actually dominated the contest with a whopping 31 chances on goal.

Hansi Flick will be wondering how things could have been different if star man Robert Lewandowski had been fit to take some of those opportunities, but like last week, both the clinical Pole and fellow attacker Serge Gnabry will be unavailable again here.

Bayern have a number of injury concerns ahead of this game, with Niklas Sule also ruled out, while the likes of Jerome Boateng, Lucas Hernandez and Leon Goretzka are all doubts to varying degrees.

There’s much better news for Mauricio Pochettino, who can call upon right-back Alessandro Florenzi and midfielder Marco Verratti after both missed the first leg due to positive Covid-19 tests, while Leandro Paredes returns from suspension.

It also appears that Keylor Navas, one of the heroes from the first leg following a string of impressive saves, should make the cut after being withdrawn at half-time this weekend.

However, the Parisians will be without Marquinhos, who lasted just half an hour in the opening game, but still made his presence felt as he made 7 clearances, four blocks and got onto the scoresheet despite his limited time on the field.

This second leg could well see a similar pattern to the first. Bayern will have to come out in search of goals as they’ll need at least two to stand any chance of progression, while PSG will seek to counter with the threat of Neymar and Kylian Mbappe on the break.

Although missing Lewandowski, Bayern still have other goalscorers in their team and the absence of Marquinhos should help their cause in carving out openings.

Meanwhile, PSG have only failed to score in one of their past 44 European matches, with the exception in last year’s final, so this should prove another open and entertaining affair.

Although Bayern are somewhat on the short side to win this game in the absence of Lewandowski, they can still boast a record of 18 wins from 20 appearances in this competition since the start of last season, while their hosts have slipped up a few times at the Parc des Princes this term. Marseille, Man Utd, Lyon, Monaco, Nantes and Lille have all taken victories there, as PSG have won just once in their last five on home turf now.

Goals remains our favourite angle though., with four of PSG’s last five in this tournament featuring a minimum of four strikes, as both teams scored in each.

Old Post 04-13-21 08:36 AM
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Kevin de Bruyne and Phil Foden gave Man City the initiative in their Champions League quarterfinal tie with Borussia Dortmund, although an 84th minute away goal from Marco Reus has left the tie in the balance coming into the 2nd leg on Wednesday night. The hosts will be boosted by a 3-2 win over Stuttgart on the weekend, while it was disappointment for Guardiola’s team when they were beaten 2-1 by a 10-man Leeds.

Man City have one foot in the semi-finals following their 2-1 win over Dortmund in the first leg, though the German outfit remain a serious threat capable of both brilliance going forwards, as well as shambolic defending at the back.

An away goal keeps Edin Terzic’s men in the tie and they may feel hard done by after Jude Bellingham’s effort was chalked off, but in reality, City were the better team on the night and quality should once again prove telling here.

Pep Guardiola made seven changes to his starting line-up against Leeds at the weekend, as the likes of key men Ruben Dias and Kevin De Bruyne were unused substitutes.

That’s perhaps unsurprising given City have virtually wrapped up the league already and are still competing on four fronts, with an FA Cup tie against Chelsea three days after this fixture, so we wouldn’t read too much into the weekend result here.

Indeed, even with that loss, City have still won 27 of 29 matches. They also have an excellent recent record facing German teams, winning 11 of 12 unbeaten encounters going back to November 2014.

That includes each of the past seven under Pep Guardiola, having comfortably seen off Borussia M’gladbach in the previous round, while Dortmund have now lost their last six against English opposition following the first-leg result.

Dortmund will take heart from their own result this weekend, a 3-2 victory over Stuttgart that just about keeps their top-four hopes alive domestically.

However, that was just their second win in seven appearances and their first in four, so this isn’t a team enjoying their best vein of form.

That downturn has coincided with the absence of Jadon Sancho, who has missed each of those past seven games, though it’s hardly as if Dortmund are struggling for output without the England international.

Erling Haaland is by his own high standards enduring a goal drought, having not scored in three outings, but he is still contributing to their efforts with a pair of assists across these games and Dortmund rarely fail to score.

In fact, both teams have found the net in 15 of Dortmund’s last 19 matches, including six of the past seven, while the German outfit themselves haven’t failed to score in 39 appearances since late September.

That includes goals in each of their past 12 defeats, as six of their last nine losses have finished 2-1, and a repeat scoreline from the first leg looks entirely plausible here.

Old Post 04-14-21 08:23 AM
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Liverpool will have to produce one of their best performances of the season if they are to overcome a 3-1 deficit against Real Madrid on Wednesday night and book their spot in the semi-finals of the Champions League. A brace from Vinicius Junior and one from Marco Asensio ensured Los Blancos head to Anfield with the advantage, however a Mo Salah away goal will give Klopp’s team some belief. That said Real do come into the game boosted by an impressive win over Barcelona in El Clasico, a result that will give them plenty of belief that they can get the job done.

Jurgen Klopp bemoaned the lack of a proper stadium for his team’s performance in the first leg last week, so he’ll certainly be relieved that they got back to winning ways at Anfield over the weekend.

In truth though, they look to have left themselves slightly too much to do and will be needing a near perfect performance here to qualify for the semis, and an early goal could go a long way to achieving that.

Real Madrid have extended their current run to 11 wins from 13 unbeaten games across all competitions, doing so by achieving a massive win against bitter rivals Barcelona at the weekend to blow the La Liga title race wide open, with just two points separating the top three with eight games to go.

While this is the first time Liverpool have been in this situation, having lost 3-1 away from home in the opening leg of a Champions League knockout match, this will be Real’s fourth time being up by this scoreline heading into an away leg, and it’s unsurprising to see they’ve qualified on all three previous occasions.

We’d expect this to be an open encounter, with the hosts needing to chase the tie and the likes of Andy Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold bombing it up the flanks.

That could either reap the rewards or leave masses of space to exploit in behind, so goals could very much be on the cards here.

Indeed, from the 12 previous occasions since 1999/00 that the home side has been 3-1 down after the first leg, there have been a total of 42 second leg goals at an average of 3.5 per game, while limiting that to the three times Real Madrid have been in this situation, there have been a total of 14 goals as the games tend to be more open, so an overs bet looks the smart play here.

Real have won the match in two of those three previous occasions, most recently beating PSG 2-1 and Napoli 3-1 in 2018 and 2017, respectively, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them win this either against a Liverpool side who, despite taking maximum points in the dying minutes at the weekend, have a relatively poor home record in 2021 with just a W2-D1-L6 record across all competitions.

Los Blancos are unbeaten in 11 away games now over 90 minutes, including three wins from their last four such outings so it’s surprising to see the hosts as odds on favourites here.

Old Post 04-14-21 08:26 AM
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It has been a familiar story for Arsenal this season: the Gunners’ season is on the line in the Europa League.

The chances of manager Mikel Arteta’s team qualifying for European competition next season through the Premier League are slim, plus the club was embarrassingly knocked out of the FA Cup as the reigning champion early in the competition.

Slavia Prague — formally known as Slavia Praha — is thriving in the Czech Republic and won’t be an easy out. Arsenal has proved itself capable of coming up with the necessary big result through the opening two knockout rounds, so let’s dig into see if it’s good value to do it again.

The Czech side had to have been happy with how the first leg at the Emirates Stadium went. After a scoreless first half that saw it look just as much of a threat as its host, Slavia Prague conceded a goal before getting a stoppage-time equalizer that gave it a lot of leverage in the second leg.

Slavia Prague is going to win the Czech First League. The club is unbeaten at 21-5-0 (W-D-L), with a plus-57 goal difference. Given the poor quality of its league, we’ll look to the Europa League to see how its strong form will translate when facing a team like Arsenal the second time.

Slavia Prague took out Rangers in the Round of 16 on a 3-1 aggregate scoreline, while registering a combined 1.0 expected goals over the two legs. Before that, Leicester City fell 2-0 on aggregate, with both goals coming in the second leg. Slavia Prague won the xG battle over two legs by a 1.5-1.3 margin.

The first leg saw Slavia Prague lose the chance-creating battle via a 1.8-0.6 difference against Arsenal. The Gunners were unspectacular, and Slavia Prague had an impressive 46% of the possession and actually more shots on target than the hosts, finishing with a 4-2 edge.

The Gunners were without Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard in the first leg, with the latter Norwegian playmaker set to miss this game as well. Arteta said he expects both Saka and Emile Smith Rowe to be fit for this match, while Ødegaard’s involvement sounds doubtful.

The big tactical call for Arsenal will be how the backline looks without left-back dynamo Kieran Tierney, who left the first leg injured and might miss the rest of the season.

The Gunners had lined up with a unique defensive look in their 3-0 win over Sheffield United on Sunday, with Granit Xhaka playing as a left back/midfielder. Saka was operating as an attacking midfielder, swapping the middle for the right wing often with Nicolas Pépé.

There are significant selection questions for Arteta in this game. Does Alexandre Lacazette or Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang start up top? Arsenal has been at its best with just one of the two on the field, but Arteta could opt for both with Aubameyang on the left side in a lineup that hasn’t yielded great results this season.

The Gunners were smooth and dynamic against Sheffield United with Aubameyang on the bench, and Saka running the show behind Lacazette. Don’t be surprised to see a similar setup, although Smith Rowe could be thrust back into the starting lineup.

Regardless of who starts for Arsenal, it will have the advantage in terms of quality on the field. It’s encouraging that against Benfica and Olympiakos, the Gunners were able to come through when they needed to do so, although the second leg against the Greek side was a disappointing performance.

Arsenal will control this game in a must-win scenario, knowing it needs to score to go through to the semifinal round.

Old Post 04-15-21 12:00 AM
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Villarreal is a heavy favorite, sitting at a whopping -1250 odds on DraftKings, to advance to the Europa League semifinal round entering Thursday’s match against Dinamo Zagreb.

The Yellow Submarine — yes, that’s the Spanish side’s nickname — only carries a one-goal lead into the second leg, but it’s an all-important away goal that came in its 1-0 victory in Croatia last week’s opening leg.

From a statistical point of view, the first match was relatively even. Villarreal had 59% possession of the ball, yet only outshot Zagreb by a slim, 13-11 margin. The La Liga side’s goal also came via a penalty kick.

The Yellow Submarine is coming off a poor result this past weekend. The club suffered a 2-1 home defeat against Osasuna, which is in 14th place in the Spanish top flight. Some key players were rested, though, including leading scorer Gerard Moreno, who only came on at halftime. Clearly, manager Unai Emery was prioritizing this second leg of this matchup.

With eight games left in the domestic season, Villarreal is seventh in La Liga on 46 points, which is a point behind Real Sociedad and Real Betis. Fourth place is out of reach due to the fact Sevilla is 15 points clear. However, Villarreal will want to finish in the top six and automatically qualify for next season’s Europa League.

Now, Villarreal could win the current competition, thereby qualifying for the Champions League next season. And that possibility is certainly not out of the question. In fact, Villarreal is currently the second betting favorite to win the title, according to FiveThirtyEight, at 19 percent, sitting only behind Premier League giant Manchester United at 43 percent.

Villarreal is the fourth-strongest team in Spain’s first division in terms of expected-goal differential at +16.3, which trails Barcelona (+32.0 xGDiff), Real Sociedad (+21.4 xGDiff) and Real Madrid (+20.9 xGDiff) in the category.

Dinamo Zagreb captured a 2-0 victory at last-place Lokomotiva in the Croatian top flight last time out. Zagreb is in first place, with a two-point cushion (and a game in hand) over Osijek.

It’s worth remembering Dinamo Zagreb did take down a big club in the previous round — Tottenham Hotspur — 3-2 on aggregate, winning the second leg by a 3-0 scoreline. However, the club was at home for that second leg and needed extra time to get the third goal. Also, Spurs beat them handily in terms of xG by a combined 3.7-1.3 advantage over the course of the two legs.

To try to put Dinamo Zagreb in a little more perspective, it’s currently No. 67 in FiveThirtyEight’s Global Club Soccer Rankings. The team immediately above them is Norwich City, which is in first place in the Championship — better known as England’s second division. And immediately below Dinamo Zagreb is Freiburg, which sits in 10th place in the Bundesliga.

Valencia, currently 13th in La Liga, is five spots above Dinamo Zagreb. And Huesca, sitting 16th in the Spanish first division, is three spots below it.

Old Post 04-15-21 12:02 AM
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After having already accounted for Leicester and Rangers, Slavia Prague look to continue their winning run over UK based clubs when they welcome Arsenal in the 2nd leg of their Europa League quarterfinal. With the tie in the balance at 1-1, the Gunners will have to dig deep to overcome the away goal advantage if they are to book their semi-final spot, however they do come into the clash boosted by a 3-0 away win over Sheffield United on the weekend.

It wasn’t the ideal result for Arsenal in the opening leg as they failed to take their chances to put the game to bed and in typical fashion switched off to allow an equaliser to be scored in the dying minutes of the game.

Slavia Praha will be happy to get an away goal in that opening leg and having followed that up with a victory over second-place Sparta Praha in their domestic Czech League at the weekend, they’ll put everything they have into this encounter.

They’ve won an impressive eight of their last 13 unbeaten outings since their two legs in the last 32 against Leicester City, winning that 2-0 on aggregate, while that run of fixtures also including a 3-1 aggregate scoreline over Steven Gerrard’s Rangers, so this will be an extremely tough place for the Gunners to travel to.

Mikel Arteta’s men got back on track at the weekend with their first win in five games against the Premier League’s rock bottom outfit Sheffield Utd by a convincing three-goal margin, which also saw them keep their first clean sheet in 15 games since January.

That’s also now three wins from their last six games away from the Emirates and they’ll at least have some sort of confidence heading into this one.

Slavia Praha have thwarted all of Leverkusen (1-0), Nice (3-2) Hapoel Be’er Sheva (3-0), Leicester (0-0) and Rangers (1-1) so far at Sinobo Stadium in Europe. Furthermore, they remain unbeaten this term on home turf across all competitions, winning 17 of their 21 outings.

That does make it hard to make a case for Arsenal to be odds-on favourites, even if the level of opposition hasn’t all been of top quality.

The English outfit look set to rely on their youngsters for this tie. That has been a recurring theme this year for the North London outfit, and with Gabriel Martinelli scoring on just his fourth start this season, he’ll hope he’s done enough to earn a spot in the starting team.

Captain Pierre Emerick Aubameyang remains a doubt through illness, but he’d be hard pushed to make the starting team on his current form anyway, and that shouldn’t make too much difference.

For a betting angle, the first half stalemate looks on the big side. The team from Prague have been level at the break in four of their six unbeaten halves of European football on home turf when including their play-off fixture against Midtjylland this term, while the Gunners have done so in seven of their 11 European fixtures at all venues.

Old Post 04-15-21 08:38 AM
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Following a superb 3-1 win away to Spurs, Manchester United turn their attention back to the Europa League and their 2nd leg quarterfinal when they welcome Granada at Old Trafford. Goals from Marcus Rashford and Bruno Fernandes ensured United come into the game with all the momentum and most importantly two away goals, leaving the Spaniards with an uphill battle if they are going to advance through to the semi-finals.

United took a comfortable 2-0 win in the first leg and will be expected to get the job done at Old Trafford.

Their weekend win over Tottenham also puts them in a commanding position domestically, with third-placed Leicester losing at the weekend to fall seven points adrift, so Ole Gunnar Solskjaer can afford to concentrate solely on this competition with silverware a must for this campaign to be considered successful.

The Norwegian does however have a number of absentees for this clash. Luke Shaw, Harry Maguire and Scott McTominay are all suspended, while Anthony Martial and Phil Jones are absent through injury.

Eric Bailly is also unlikely to feature having spent almost a month away in quarantine, so there should be opportunities for some fringe players to impress.

Still, United have lost just once in 18 appearances, winning five of the last six, which includes victories over the likes of West Ham, Milan and Tottenham.

That would suggest there’ll be no slip-up here, and Granada’s recent form would make such an event even more unlikely.

The Spanish outfit did manage to finally win a game for the first time in a month this weekend, away at relegation-battling Real Valladolid, though they’d lost four on the bounce prior to that and it’s difficult to see them overturning the first-leg result.

Granada did however come close to scoring on home turf as Yangel Herrera hit the woodwork, while former Chelsea winger Kenedy tried his luck a few times from distance.

Granada actually boast a fairly healthy scoring record, failing to register in just three of their past 21 appearances, and with United missing a few defenders, could come away with a goal.

In fact, Granada have scored in six of seven away matches in Europe this term, and although for the most part they haven’t faced too many quality outfits, this still includes a pair of goals away at PSV in the group stages and strikes in 2-1 defeats to both Napoli and Molde in the knockout rounds.

Overall, a similar performance from the first leg should be expected here. We wouldn’t completely trust the hosts to keep a clean sheet with a few defenders missing and with Granada capable going forwards, but there is a clear gulf in quality between the two sides that is hard to ignore.

Given United’s 3-1 win over Tottenham this weekend was the first time in 11 appearances where they’d scored more than twice, the multibet option appears to cover all the likely angles.

Old Post 04-15-21 08:40 AM
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Both Everton and Tottenham’s hopes of finishing in the top four took a blow last time out, Spurs being downed 3-1 by Man United and Everton only managing a draw with Brighton, results that see Spurs now six-points adrift of fourth-placed West Ham and Everton seven points behind, although Carlo Ancelotti’s team do have a game in hand. Goodison Park plays host to the opening game of the Premier League weekend on Friday night when Everton welcome Spurs in a must win clash for both sides if they are going to keep their top four ambitions alive.

One point out of six between these two sides last weekend put a massive dent in their top four bids, especially with Liverpool, Chelsea and West Ham all winning, and you’d have to suggest that any dropped points here for either side would be the final nail in the coffin.

Spurs threw away a one goal lead hosting Man United on Sunday afternoon, and they can’t really argue that they deserved more than they got based on balance of play, particularly in the second half.

Edinson Cavani and Mason Greenwood sealed the win deep into the second half, which now leaves just Crystal Palace, Newcastle, and Sheffield United conceding more goals in the final fifteen minutes of games than Spurs this season.

Everton played out a dire 0-0 draw with Brighton on Monday night, putting a massive dent in their hopes for the top four, and it looks like Europa League football next season is the best that the Toffees can hope for.

Having won five matches on the bounce across all competitions for just the second time this season, Spurs have now gone W1-D1-L3 from their subsequent five games as there’s a massive disparity in results against the stronger and weaker teams.

Indeed, up against the current bottom-half sides, Jose Mourinho’s men have picked up a more than respectable 2.19 points per game from their 16 such matches, though that steeply drops down to 0.93 ppg when facing the current top-half sides and they’ll have to be on their game to get something here.
It’s unclear as to whether or not the hosts will have the likes of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Allan and Andre Gomes back available for this clash, and the absence of those three could really impact their chances here.

Without their top scorer, it’s unsurprising to see a 30% decrease in Everton’s output when he doesn’t feature while they’ve only won three of their last 10 matches without Allan in the side, so the game may rest heavily on them playing.

It’s now five games without a win for the Merseyside club, who have managed just two goals in that time, and even those came against struggling sides Burnley and Crystal Palace.

While Tottenham have been quite consistent regardless of if they’re home and away, no side has a worse home/away ratio than Everton, who pick up 0.8 points per game more when away from Goodison Park.

That serves perfectly into Tottenham’s hands, who certainly have the firepower to cause this Everton defence some serious problems.

While neither side have been particularly leaky this year, recently clean sheets have been hard to come by for both.

Spurs have managed just one in five now, and just one in six away from home against the top-half, while Everton have kept just one in eight at Goodison Park against that same bracket. With the firepower on display we’d be surprised if both teams didn’t find the net.

Old Post 04-16-21 08:20 AM
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A much needed 2-1 win for Newcastle last time out moved them six-points clear of the relegation zone, however Steve Bruce will be aware that there is still plenty more to do if they are going to secure Premier League status next season. High flying West Ham are next up in the early Saturday Premier League kick-off, themselves on an excellent run of two consecutive wins and very much in the hunt to nail down a top four finish.

Yet another inspiring display from Allan Saint-Maximin saw Newcastle come from behind to win a crucial six-pointer towards the bottom end of the Premier League table.

That takes their points per game to 1.34 when he’s been involved since the start of last season, to just a mere 0.68 without him, a remarkable 97% positive swing.

It has gone from good to great for West Ham. They beat Leicester at the weekend and closed the gap to the Foxes in third place to just one point.

It has been a Jesse Lingard inspired run for the Hammers, with the England international providing eight goals and four assists from his nine appearances since arriving at London Stadium, five of those goals coming from his last four outings, netting in each.

David Moyes’s men have gone W5-D1-L2 from their last eight matches dating back to mid-February, only losing to the Manchester clubs while the draw came against an Arsenal side when letting a three-goal lead slip.

Only Manchester Utd have lost fewer games than the Magpies over the last six games, although with only one of those fixtures came against a top half outfit, and with that it was a lacklustre Spurs side.

In fact, against the top six in the table, they’re a woeful W1-D1-L6 this term, but that one win did come against their next opponents back in September.

They do hold a favourable W4-D1-L1 in their six meetings since the beginning of the 2018/19 campaign, although they’re winless against their visitors at St James’ Park over that period.

By contrast, the Hammers have won five of their last seven unbeaten outings against the bottom six outfits and look to be building some serious momentum at the minute.

They will be concerned about the fitness of Mark Noble who got injured when filling in for Declan Rice against Leicester, but he’s looking more and more likely to be available.

Newcastle will be buoyant by the return of their more attacking players Callum Wilson, Miguel Almiron and Saint-Maximin.

That has to give them a chance in any game, but it seems West Ham are yet again looking a touch on the long side in the outright market considering how impressive they have been.

With that in mind, we like the look of the winning margin too. Six of the Hammers’ last seven games have had a maximum of one goal separate the teams, including three of their four wins over that time, with the only victory not to go to the wire being a 2-0 win over Leeds.

Newcastle have lost by exactly one or two goals in eight of their last 10 defeats, including all their last five losses against the top six.

Old Post 04-16-21 08:26 AM
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We are in the stretch run of the European club soccer calendar, with matches starting to decide more and more title races each passing week. We saw a ton of action this past weekend, with some huge matches deciding title races along with a couple upsets.

10-men Leeds United scored a late winner to upset first place Manchester City in the Premier League. It was only the second loss for the Cityzens since the calendar turned to 2021.
West Ham defeated Leicester City 3-2 in a top four clash, which has heated up the race for Champions League spots, with four teams now with four points.
Manchester United scored three second half goals to beat Tottenham 3-1 on the road.
Frankfurt defeated Wolfsburg 4-3 in a top four Bundesliga clash, closing the gap on third place to just one point.
Real Madrid defeated Barcelona in El Clásico 2-1 and now sit only one point behind Atletico Madrid for the top spot after Atletico drew with Real Betis 1-1 on Sunday.
Due to the fact the European soccer calendar is so congested at the moment with Champions League, Europa League and mid-week matches taking place next week, managers might be rotating their squads to rest some players. It would probably be a good idea to wait until starting lineups come out an hour before kickoff before placing a wager.

Old Post 04-17-21 12:02 AM
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Bundesliga Notes

Wolfsburg vs. Bayern Munich: The league leaders look to extend their lead at the top when they battle third place Wolfsburg on Saturday morning. It’s been a rough two weeks for Bayern Munich who got knocked out of the Champions League by PSG on Tuesday and were only able to draw with Union Berlin this past weekend. On top of all that, they are dealing with an injury crisis at moment with a ton of their first team players on the sidelines. Wolfsburg’s three match win streak came to an end over the weekend with their 4-3 loss at Frankfurt. However, Wolfsburg is unbeaten in 13 home Bundesliga matches this season, so Bayern will have a tough task on their hands.

Old Post 04-17-21 12:04 AM
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Serie A Notes

Atalanta vs. Juventus: This is a huge match for Champions League qualification next season. Juventus is in third place, leading Atalanta by one point. However, Napoli is only two points outside the top four, so all three points for either team could go a long way towards finishing inside the top four. Atalanta is red hot at home as of late, winning four straight matches and scoring 15 goals in the process. Juventus has been somewhat struggling on the road, as they only have two wins in their last six matches away from home.
Napoli vs. Inter: This is a huge match for both clubs, for different reasons. Inter is trying to maintain their large lead a top the Serie A table, while Napoli is trying to make up ground on the top four. Inter is on fire in Serie A right now winning their last 11 matches by a combined score of 24 to 4. Napoli is on their own good run at the moment, winning six of their last eight matches in Serie A.

Old Post 04-17-21 12:04 AM
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La Liga Notes

Real Sociedad vs. Sevilla: Fourth and fifth place in La Liga meet on Saturday with three points vital for the home side. Real Sociedad is tied on points with Real Betis for one of the final two Europa League spots, with Villarreal trailing them both by one point. On the flip side, Sevilla is securely in fourth place, but is only six points off league leaders Atletico Madrid, so they are somewhat still in the title race. Real Sociedad has been struggling as of late going winless in their last four matches. They also lost 3-2 to Sevilla in the first meeting between these two teams.

Old Post 04-17-21 12:04 AM
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With Chelsea and Manchester City safely through to the semi-finals of the Champions League, both sides turn their attention back to the domestic front and the small matter of the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley on Saturday night. Pepo Guardiola’s team remain in the hunt for the quadruple and with six wins from their last nine meetings against Chelsea, few would bet against them booking their final spot in the oldest cup competition around.

The Champions League may be a bigger priority for both sides after they booked their places in the semi-finals on Wednesday night, but they’ll be keen to add domestic silverware and for Pep Guardiola’s outfit, belief in an unprecedented quadruple is growing. Man City are understandably odds-on to win after doing so in 28 of 30 matches, but a well-drilled Chelsea defence represents a significant obstacle.

Man City should also benefit from Pep Guardiola’s regular rotation and he has virtually a full compliment to choose from, with Sergio Aguero the only doubt. The Argentine would likely have had to make do with a place on the bench in any case, having seemingly been supplanted in the pecking order by younger stars.

Their opponents have a concern with Mateo Kovacic missing their Champions League second leg with Porto. Jorginho and N’Golo Kante each played the full 90 minutes in that game, and could suffer physically by the end here as City will likely dominate possession.

Thomas Tuchel also has options in attack, where Timo Werner has lost his place as Mason Mount, Kai Havertz and Christian Pulisic appear to be his preferred trio at present.

The last three meetings between the two sides have been entertaining affairs as each saw both sides register on the scoreboard and at least three goals.

However, Chelsea were conceding more under Frank Lampard and they’ve not yet encountered Man City under new boss Tuchel, though their performances with the German at the helm would suggest this one will pan out differently.

Chelsea are an impressive W12-D4-L2 under him so far, registering 13 clean sheets, though they’ve only shut their opponents out in one of their past four appearances now.

Still, 15 of 18 games have featured fewer than three goals, including all seven encounters with top sides Atletico Madrid and Porto (twice each), Tottenham, Man Utd and, Liverpool. In fact, those games saw a combined eight strikes, as five of the seven contained a maximum of just one goal.

‘Unders’ looks a decent prospect here then. Man City’s past tree outings have each seen three goals, though two of these were against an attacking Dortmund side in Europe, while the other was their defeat last weekend to an unpredictable Leeds.

Their previous three outings saw them take 2-0 victories over decent outfits Borussia M’Gladbach, Everton an Leicester, while their 2-0 defeat to Man Utd in March also demonstrated that they can be involved in tighter games against team of real quality.

Old Post 04-17-21 10:36 AM
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