StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

The FoxDen Forum : Powered by vBulletin version 2.3.0 The FoxDen Forum > Sports Handicapping, Trends, and Stats > Champions League, EPL, Bundesliga
Search The Fox Den Forum:

Subscribe to this Thread
Pages (2): « 1 [2]

Last Message   Next Message
    
Author
Message    Post A Reply
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Leicester and Southampton continue their FA Cup run when they clash in the semi-final at Wembley on Sunday. The Foxes have already got the better of the Saints in the league this season winning 2-0, however you have to go back to the 2011/12 Championship season when they last beat Southampton twice in one season.

In the league there might be signs of déjà vu for Leicester fans as back-to-back defeats since the international break has dragged them right back down into the battle for the top four, a position they agonisingly let slip last year and will be desperate not to let history repeat itself.

Southampton are set for mid table mediocrity this season, which is a shame after their blistering start to the campaign which even saw them top the league for a short period of time.

They come into this off the back of a heavy 3-0 defeat to relegation threatened West Brom, though in this competition, they seem to chuck the form book out the window.

Indeed, despite losing 11 of their last 14 matches in the Premier League, they’ve won four out of four in the FA Cup, and are notably yet to even concede a goal, and will be relatively pleased in drawing Leicester considering the other two sides left in the competition.

That said, the Foxes will certainly feel they’ve lucked out in playing Southampton as they look to make the Saints the third Premier League side they’ve beaten in this run having overcome both Brighton and Man United already.

Historically, the Midlands side have a very balanced record when facing fellow top tier opponents in the Cup, going W4-D3-L4 this century before this season, though it should be said that three of those four defeats came in replays against Chelsea, Spurs and Man City (following the draws against those sides), so we wouldn’t expect that to have much of a bearing on proceedings.

The Saints actually have more experience at this stage of the competition, with this their third such appearance since the turn of the century, though again we wouldn’t expect that to have too much relevance considering their most recent semi-final win came against Championship side Watford back in 2003, and they lost their most recent Wembley visit to Chelsea in 2018.

While the south coast side have been near flawless so far in the competition, we’d expect that to end here as they’re yet to beat a side currently of Leicester’s quality. Across all competitions, the Saints have gone W4-D1-L10 from their last 15 games, with those wins coming against Burnley, Bournemouth, Sheffield United and Wolves, none of whom can hold a candle to the Foxes this season, and despite back-to-back defeats against top-four opposition, we’d expect Brenden Rogers’ side to get back to winning ways in this one, and they look a good price to get behind.

Old Post 04-17-21 11:26 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

A much needed 2-1 win for Newcastle last time out moved them six-points clear of the relegation zone, however Steve Bruce will be aware that there is still plenty more to do if they are going to secure Premier League status next season. High flying West Ham are next up in the early Saturday Premier League kick-off, themselves on an excellent run of two consecutive wins and very much in the hunt to nail down a top four finish.

Yet another inspiring display from Allan Saint-Maximin saw Newcastle come from behind to win a crucial six-pointer towards the bottom end of the Premier League table.

That takes their points per game to 1.34 when he’s been involved since the start of last season, to just a mere 0.68 without him, a remarkable 97% positive swing.

It has gone from good to great for West Ham. They beat Leicester at the weekend and closed the gap to the Foxes in third place to just one point.

It has been a Jesse Lingard inspired run for the Hammers, with the England international providing eight goals and four assists from his nine appearances since arriving at London Stadium, five of those goals coming from his last four outings, netting in each.

David Moyes’s men have gone W5-D1-L2 from their last eight matches dating back to mid-February, only losing to the Manchester clubs while the draw came against an Arsenal side when letting a three-goal lead slip.

Only Manchester Utd have lost fewer games than the Magpies over the last six games, although with only one of those fixtures came against a top half outfit, and with that it was a lacklustre Spurs side.

In fact, against the top six in the table, they’re a woeful W1-D1-L6 this term, but that one win did come against their next opponents back in September.

They do hold a favourable W4-D1-L1 in their six meetings since the beginning of the 2018/19 campaign, although they’re winless against their visitors at St James’ Park over that period.

By contrast, the Hammers have won five of their last seven unbeaten outings against the bottom six outfits and look to be building some serious momentum at the minute.

They will be concerned about the fitness of Mark Noble who got injured when filling in for Declan Rice against Leicester, but he’s looking more and more likely to be available.

Newcastle will be buoyant by the return of their more attacking players Callum Wilson, Miguel Almiron and Saint-Maximin.

That has to give them a chance in any game, but it seems West Ham are yet again looking a touch on the long side in the outright market considering how impressive they have been.

With that in mind, we like the look of the winning margin too. Six of the Hammers’ last seven games have had a maximum of one goal separate the teams, including three of their four wins over that time, with the only victory not to go to the wire being a 2-0 win over Leeds.

Newcastle have lost by exactly one or two goals in eight of their last 10 defeats, including all their last five losses against the top six.

Old Post 04-17-21 11:28 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Man City have lost just one of their last 10 trips to Wembley in all competitions (W7-D2-L1).

But that defeat was in last season's FA Cup semi-final when hot favs against Arsenal.

Old Post 04-17-21 06:23 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

a good live spot

Wolves are the only club not to lose a Premier League fixture this season after scoring the opening goal.

Sheff Utd have conceded the opening goal in 24 of their 31 games so far this season.

Old Post 04-17-21 09:00 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Leicester vs Southampton | Sunday 18th April 2021, 1:30

Leicester contest their first FA Cup semi-final since 1982 and aim to reach their first final since their losing appearance in 1969 – although Southampton have the better recent history in the competition, losing semi-finalists in 2018 and defeated finalists in 2003, I can’t see them winning here.

The Saints are on a terrible run of league form winning just two of their last 14 EPL games, losing 11 and although the 9-0 walloping at Old Trafford skews this figure a little, they have conceded 37 goals in that run, scoring just 13.

Having played four of the bottom five in that period they have lost to three of them, defeating only rock bottom Sheffield United.

Their recent come from behind victory over Burnley showed great character, but appeared to be a false dawn going by their woeful 3-0 loss to West Brom last time out with captain James Ward-Prowse missing a late penalty to earn some consolation going in to this Wembley date.

The Saints run to the final has been kind, with a round three victory over Shrewsbury earning them arguably their strongest test with a home tie against Arsenal, a heavily rotated Wolves were defeated in round five as Nuno opted to prioritise the league fixture three days later before a quarter final trip to Championship play off chasing Bournemouth.

The Foxes comfortably won the latest league dual between these clubs in January and should be stronger for the reintegration of their disciplined trio of James Maddison, Ayoze Perez and Hamza Choudhury following back-to-back defeats which have taken the shine off three successive victories where they scored 10 goals conceding just two – however with those two defeats being against fellow top four opposition, today’s opponents aren’t of the same caliber.

This is a massive opportunity for Brendan Rodgers and his team to claim some silverware and I really can’t see them passing it up – and with odds close to even money that is an opportunity I don’t want to overlook myself as I make them pretty strong favourites and expected odds closer to 4/5.

Old Post 04-18-21 01:24 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Arsenal vs Fulham | Sunday 18th April 2021, 8:30

Arsenal took Slavia Prague to the sword on Thursday, winning 4-0 becoming the first team to win at Slavia in nearly 18 months.

It was possibly one of Arsenal’s best performances of the season with vice-captain Alexandre Lacazette in inspired form of late, scoring four goals in five days.

They take on a Fulham side who have taken a massive hit to their survival status. A last gasp winner for Wolves last week, combined with two wins for Newcastle since then, sees them seven points adrift.

So now it’s crunch time for Fulham who must travel to Man United, Southampton and Chelsea in their away games after their visit to Arsenal.

The Cottagers will view this trip to Arsenal as a must win in their quest for Premier League survival and anything other than three points surely sees their season in serious threat of relegation.

Given it is a must win encounter for Scott Parker’s side, and Arsenal have won their last two games by an aggregate of 7-0, it should be a better match than I first thought.

I believe Arsenal will put a nail in the Fulham coffin on Sunday afternoon. Arsenal are best price 3/4 (1.75) but to be able to double our money with SkyBet by backing Arsenal and under 4.5 goals at 1/1 (2.00) looks worth getting on.

Of Fulham’s 16 losses 14/16 have seen Under 4.5 goals land. For Arsenal, 12/13 of their wins have seen fewer than five goals. We can get some value by opposing a goal laden game at the Emirates

Old Post 04-18-21 01:40 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Manchester United vs Burnley | Sunday 18th April 2021, 11:00

United are a team I struggle to side with as despite the fact that they find themselves second in the table, they rarely pass the eye test, struggle for continuity and have a worrying ability to lose game you wouldn't expect them to. The already relegated Sheffield United have won at Old Trafford this season, as have Crystal Palace and neither were smash and grab victories.
Burnley themselves have won at Anfield this season but I don't think they'll be arriving to Manchester with great deal of confidence as The Clarets have lost their lost two matches despite leading in both of them (2-0 to Southampton and 1-0 to Newcastle).
Indeed, given Manchester United's ability to win games from behind, I can see a few people backing Burnley half time and United full time. I, however, will be more selective and just back United to win and both teams to score.

Old Post 04-18-21 04:40 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Post A Reply
  
Pages (2): « 1 [2]   Last Message   Next Message

Quick Links: