A wild start to the NFL week with that 41-39 thriller featuring the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers Thursday night. Let’s see how Sharps have been betting the rest of the card.

Baltimore vs. Jacksonville (in London): Remember that this is technically a neutral site game. Baltimore isn’t laying -3.5 or -4 “on the road.” The public likes the Ravens because of their 2-0 start, and because Jacksonville looked so bad vs. Tennessee last week. Sharps prefer dogs generally, and they know Jacksonville has a following in London, so they will gladly take whatever points are on offer here.

Cleveland at Indianapolis:
Hard to imagine the Browns as a road favorite given their form of the past few seasons. They opened at -2.5 here, and were immediately bet down to -1.5. Sharps don't think the Browns should be favored on the road either, even against the lowly Luck-less Colts! They didn’t expect the public to push this unlikely favorite toward the key number of three, so those who liked the home dog took what they could get early. At this price, Indy +7.5 will also be popular in two-team teasers because the six-point move crosses both the 3 and the 7.

Pittsburgh at Chicago:
The opener of Pittsburgh -8 is down to -7.5. Sharps who bet Chicago as a home dog vs. Atlanta back in Week 1 were rewarded…as were Sharps who faded Pittsburgh by betting Cleveland as a home dog. It was a lot of the same guys! That contingency will be betting the Bears for value again - Pittsburgh typically plays down to the level of its competition on the road- although if the line stays at -7.5, Pittsburgh -1.5 will also be popular in Sharp teasers. It will be interesting to see if the public lays the chalk here, or passes on the Steelers at the high price.

Miami at NY Jets:
We’ve been a pretty solid Miami -6 all week. Sharps will gladly take the generous points here and fade any public move off that number. It’s not quite as important as seven, but its still a key number that could become more important with more missed extra points. Still, Sharps who thought they could bet the Jets for value are 0-2 so far this season. Will this be a replay of what happened with the Cleveland Browns last year? Sharps want no part of Miami at this price, so they'l ride the ugly dog here, at least for one more week.

Denver at Buffalo:
Big early move here on Denver from -1 up to -3, but this is mostly all pubic money. Basically, any square who watched Denver dominate Dallas last week is expecting the Broncos to win this one easily. I wouldn’t be surprised if the public drives the number up to -3.5 or more before kickoff, as they are all over the Broncos, with this being easily the most heavily bet game thus far. Sharps are waiting to see what they can get, and will definitely step in against the favorite in this letdown spot, so don’t be surprised if there’s a tug-of-war between Denver -3 and Buffalo +3.5 Sunday morning.

Houston at New England:
This line continues to rise, as an opener of New England -12.5 is now all the way up to -14 in many spots, again mostly public money. A solid +14 will bring in dog lovers, particularly old-school types who will take double digits whenever offered. New England made the public rich last year and was a big winner in New Orleans last Sunday as well. We’ll see just how much the public loves New England before kickoff. Probably a tug-of-war coming up between the public on the Patriots and Sharps on the Texans. Not sure if that will be at -13.5 and +14, or -14 and +14.5.

New Orleans at Carolina:
Carolina opened at -6. The offense has struggled this season, and is now dealing with multiple injuries, so almost nobody wanted a part of the Panthers at that price. Some stores are testing Carolina -5.5 because most of the money so far has been on the dog. Sharps playing this game also want the dog, but, they know the Saints are 0-2 straight up and ATS out of the gate so they probably won’t invest heavily in this horrible defense. So far, dog or pass for Sharps, with a notable amount of interest on the Under as well, which has been bet down from 47.5 to 46.

Tampa Bay at Minnesota:
The market has been waiting for word on Sam Bradford. Some stores put up soft openers (lower limits) on Minnesota -2, assuming that Bradford will play. The Wise Guys won’t invest until they know definitively who’s going to play quarterback. A lot of Sharps have their eye on Tampa Bay this season as a team to watch. They might take the Bucs cheap vs. Case Keenum, at a likely line of Tampa -2.5 or 3 or getting almost a field goal against Bradford if he plays.

Atlanta at Detroit:
Atlanta’s been a very solid three all week. Sharps would fade any move off the key number. It’s probably a pass for most at this line, though, generally speaking, more Sharp syndicates emphasize underdogs than favorites. Would have been easier for squares to push the line higher on Atlanta if Detroit hadn’t won so easily Monday in New York. Some Sharp interest on the Over in what figures to be a shootout.

NY Giants at Philadelphia:
We’ve been at a solid six all week, which is a testament to how far the Giants have fallen in Power Ratings just two games into the season. Back in August, this line was expected to be about -2.5 or -3. Sharps will fade any move off the key number, though most want little to do with what's looked like a horrible offensive line for the Giants thus far. Those who do are waiting to see if Odell Beckham Jr. is moving better in practice. If he’s closer to 100% health, it’s easier to make a case for the Giants in a must-win situation.

Seattle at Tennessee:
Tennessee opened at -1.5, and has been bet up to -2.5. We could very easily see the three tested because Seattle’s offense looks even worse now that San Francisco’s defense was lit up by the Rams. Think about it. Seattle couldn’t score a TD at Green Bay, then the Packers got run over by Atlanta. Seattle couldn’t score a TD until the final moments vs. San Francisco, only to see the Rams light up the scoreboard on Thursday. Sharps who liked Tennessee initially got their money in early. Seattle plus 8.5 will be a logical choice for two-team teaser players.

Kansas City at LA Chargers:
An opener of Kansas City -3.5 is down to a solid three. The public may be all over the Chiefs Sunday because they’ve played so well, and because there’s a perception the Chargers don’t have much of a home field advantage at their new mini-stadium. Sharps have already shown they’ll take the home dog +3.5 in this divisional rivalry, setting up a likely tug-of-war Sunday between KC -3 and the Chargers +3.5.

Cincinnati at Green Bay:
The Packers opened at -9. Stores are either still on the 9 or testing -8.5 because of limited betting interest from the public so far. Green Bay’s defense is capable of letting opponents in the back door. Cincinnati’s in a “must show up” situation after a 0-2 start. Many Sharps like betting 0-2 teams in Week 3 on the assumption that the market is overreacting to bad starts. That will put many Wise Guys on this dog.

Oakland at Washington:
The opener of Oakland -3.5 is down to a solid -3. Could be a fun wide-open game, because Washington often plays that way and the Raiders are well suited to piling up points. Awkward travel spot for Oakland, who just played out East in Tennessee two weeks ago, before their home opener vs. the Jets. This being a night game should help get them re-acclimated. Washington’s in the same situation after visiting Los Angeles last Sunday. Sharps will probably fade any move off the three. This will be a heavily bet game in Nevada because the Raiders are involved. That would have been true even if they hadn’t announced a move to Las Vegas in the near future.

MONDAY NIGHT
Dallas at Arizona:
Dallas is either -3 or -3.5, which suggests a tug-of-war all the way up until kickoff. The public knows Arizona has been playing horribly, and wants to bet the Cowboys in a bounce-back spot. All the Sharps who thought Dallas would fall back to earth this season would love getting the hook with a home dog they thought had the talent to make a Wildcard run. Like the Giants, Arizona has fallen significantly in some Power Ratings assessments after losing David Johnson and getting subpar play from their aging quarterback, but Sharps will still back them here against America's team.

That's it for this week, as always, best of luck to all in the Den!!!

Thank you Dwight for posting these. It's a must read each week.

Definently a must read!!!! Thanks dwight

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