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msudogs
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Premier League, Bundesliga, More Weekend

let's get it rolling folks !
GL

Old Post 09-22-17 09:12 AM
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French Ligue

this movement is similar to the Coruna match where the $'s wagered is telling the tale

SOC [203266] NICE -114

YTD
19-6 +14.48

Old Post 09-22-17 09:14 AM
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Gush
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England
Swindon +129
Swindon/ForestGreen over 2.5 -128

France
Beziers +138
Sannois +155
Dunkerque/LesHerbiers draw +210

Italy
Ravenna +130

YTD 48-45-5 +24.99

Old Post 09-22-17 07:10 PM
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Gush
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Friday 4-2 + 3.79
YTD 52-47-5 +28.78

Old Post 09-22-17 10:47 PM
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Traderpro
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Going to pop in here in what will likely be my only soccer play on Saturday.

5* New England +160 vs Toronto

Perfect spot for Revs here after coach being fired and off last weeks 7-0 loss to Atlanta.They should come to play against Toronto team that has clinched playoff spot and likely will rest some key players here. Good value on Revs at home. GL

Old Post 09-23-17 12:37 AM
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msudogs
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SOC [203266] NICE -114..........L

YTD
19-7 +13.34

Old Post 09-23-17 01:16 AM
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Week 5 Results:
Home 3 of 10 (-4.30 units)
Away 2 of 10 (-5.94 units)
Draw 5 of 10 (+15.21 units)

Week 5 Biggest Payouts:
Tottenham/Swansea +695
Liverpool/Burnley Draw +561

Season Results:
Home 21 of 50 (-7.51 units)
Away 16 of 50 (+4.65 units)
Draw 13 of 50 (+11.50 units)

Season Biggest Payouts:
Burnley (+1125) at Chelsea in Week 1
Tottenham/Swansea Draw (+695) in Week 5
Tottenham/Burnley Draw (+625) in Week 3

Old Post 09-23-17 01:17 AM
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After dropping points at home to Arsenal for the first time since 2011, Chelsea will now look to bounce back as they travel to the Bet365.com Stadium to face Stoke City on Saturday.

Stoke City have had a pretty average start to the season, but have been strong at home. They’ve had about as hard of a start to their home schedule as they could, facing Arsenal then Manchester United, but they have got four points from their first two home matches with a win against Arsenal and a draw against Manchester United. Those results and performances will give them reason to believe they can get something against Chelsea.

Chelsea will have to be wary of Stoke since it seems like, after no wins against the top six last season, they’ve rediscovered the way to make things hard for big teams at home. That said, it may be early, but Chelsea have started the season better away from home than they have at Stamford Bridge. Both games in which they’ve dropped points were at home, with a loss to Burnley and a draw against Arsenal, while they’ve won both their away games, including a win against Tottenham. Their strong start away from home along with the fact that they are a better football team will make Chelsea rightfully feel that anything other than a win in this match is a disappointment.

TEAM NEWS

Stoke City will be without Julian N’Goy, Stephen Ireland, Geoff Cameron, and Ibrahim Affeley through various injuries.

PREDICTION

Chelsea will likely need to break down a deep defense, which they sometimes struggle with, but they should still win. Stoke will pose a tough test, but Chelsea are used to those and should be able to come through it.

Prediction: 2-1 Chelsea

Old Post 09-23-17 01:19 AM
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This weekend there are a number of considerable favorites including Man City, Man Utd, Tottenham, Chelsea, Everton and Arsenal. I won’t be touching any of those games, but the way the EPL shakes out, we’re likely to see an upset along the way– I just don’t know who it will be.

As usual, I’m going back to the well and taking a couple draws for this weekend’s matchups. If you’ve looked at the board, you probably have an inkling who they are. The first will be on the Draw +215 between Newcastle and Brighton. Bettors have hopped on the Newcastle bandwagon and they’re getting more than 75% of bets on the road, looking for their 4th consecutive win. The total is just 2 goals, a great sign for a low-scoring and tight affair. Historically, draws have performed very well in the +200 to +225 range with low totals, so this is another great match.

The other value play will be on the Draw +225 between Burnley and Huddersfield. Both teams are surprisingly tied for 5th place in the EPL with 8 points each, so both have been overperforming thus far. Again we have a very low total of just 2 goals and a moneyline in the sweet spot historically. These teams were expected to be relegated this season so it’s nice to see them jump out to good starts. I see them sharing the points this weekend, so value is on the Draw +225.

Old Post 09-23-17 01:20 AM
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Most Lopsided: 93% on Man Utd (-135), 91% on Chelsea (-162)

Biggest Line Moves: Chelsea (-144 to -162) at Stoke, Bournemouth (+508 to +460) at Everton

Old Post 09-23-17 01:23 AM
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Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla betting: Recent games

Two of La Liga’s top five meet this Saturday in what will be the division’s biggest game so far this season; refreshingly, it won’t involve either Barcelona or Real Madrid. Indeed, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla – also two of La Liga’s remaining unbeaten sides – will go head to head at the new Wanda Metropolitano stadium for the first time.

Sevilla head to the capital in fine form; four wins and one draw have left them just two points behind Barcelona. Atletico, meanwhile, are the form team in Madrid: three wins and two draws have left them three points ahead of Real Madrid following their surprisingly poor start. The Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla odds right now very much favour Diego Simeone’s hosts.

A big factor is Atletico Madrid’s recent head-to-head record against Sevilla. The visitors have won just one of their last 13 La Liga meetings with Atletico – and that win didn’t come on the road. Sevilla are winless in eight at Atletico’s ground, their last victory coming in 2010. Jesus Navas scored that day and has since returned to the club.

That said, four of those eight results have ended in draws, perhaps offering hope to a Sevilla side that have rarely headed into this fixture with such momentum.

Elsewhere, another interesting statistic is that the last six La Liga meetings between the two sides to take place at Atletico have seen no less than eight red cards.

If any bettors are hoping for a high-scoring game, however, the formbooks would suggest looking elsewhere. Sevilla have the best defence in La Liga so far this term, conceding just once in five games. Atletico, meanwhile, have been notorious for their strength at the back in recent years and aren’t far behind, conceding three times in their opening five matches
In an intriguing combination, Atletico Madrid have not conceded more than once in a La Liga game since the first day of the campaign, while Sevilla have only scored once in four of their five league games so far. For those who think Atletico can hold out and keep a clean sheet, under 0.5 and 1 Sevilla goals is 2.080*.

But the most fascinating statistic can be found by looking towards the 1st half market for value. Indeed, with odds of under 1 goal before half-time priced at 2.190*, it is pertinent that every single one of Atletico Madrid’s La Liga games this month has been 0-0 at half-time. Sevilla’s last four league games have been goalless after 45 minutes.

Atletico’s new fortress?

Despite Sevilla’s strong form, bettors may struggle to find value in the Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla odds on the money line and even in the handicap market. Atletico are 1.625* to win at full-time, while betting on Atletico at -1 handicap is a difficult choice considering the defensive nature of both sides. Last season, Atletico were the fourth-best team at home in La Liga.

Sevilla, meanwhile, ranked eighth out of 20 for their away form across the whole season. The question bettors should ask is how Atletico Madrid’s new stadium will impact their form. Atletico’s opening match at their new ground brought a 1-0 win against bottom-side Malaga yet Eduardo Berizzo’s men should provide a far sterner test.

As discussed, it will be difficult for bettors to find a favourable price on the money line or in the handicap market on Saturday unless they are convinced Sevilla can come away with a draw or win. There may, however, be value in the 1st half market and by looking towards the team totals – as mentioned above.

Potential value does lie in the overall totals market with a price of 1.917* for under 2.5 and 3 goals. This may tempt bettors considering Sevilla’s low-scoring season to date, combined with the fact both sides have conceded just five goals in 10 games between them. Alternatively, over 2.5 and 3 goals is 1.980*.

Of course, anything can happen in La Liga - something Real Betis proved with aplomb by winning at Real Madrid on Wednesday night. But bettors should expect a tactical affair that showcases two astute defences on Saturday.

Old Post 09-23-17 09:28 AM
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Tottenham is the only the second Premier League club to relocate in the last decade, although many have done it before and numerous clubs have plans to do so in the future. Similarly to when basketball and football teams move to a new city, the worry is that it can take players a while to familiarise themselves with new surroundings and maintain previous levels of performance.

Before Tottenham, West Ham was the last club in the English top flight to change stadia. The move to the London Stadium in 2016 marked the end of a 112-year stay at the Boleyn Ground. But do these new facilities have a positive effect on performance or do teams sacrifice the benefit of home field advantage?

West Ham United

Given that West Ham have only played one season at the London Stadium since moving from Upton Park, the sample size available is too small to analyse any significant impact that playing in a new stadium has had on the Hammers’ performance.

However, after finishing 7th in 2015/16 and only losing three games at home in the entire season, the 11th place finish and eight home loses last season would have certainly been a disappointment for Slaven Bilic’s side. Bettors will have to wait and see how West Ham perform at home in the next few years to see how important the change in stadia is but other teams’ experiences certainly provides some interesting insight.

Arsenal

Renowned for their ‘invincibles’ season (going unbeaten for the entire 2003/04 Premier League season), Arsenal and their fans have regularly been mocked for their lack of success since. Upon closer inspection, moving into a new stadium may have had a bigger impact than many expect.

In the years that followed their famous title-winning campaign, Arsenal finished 2nd and 4th before moving into their new 60,000-seater stadium. Since playing their home games at the Emirates, the Gunners have finished no better than 3rd whilst enduring a nine-year wait for any kind of silverware (winning the FA Cup in 2014).

A 2nd place finish in 2015/16 pointed to some kind of recovery, but last year's 5th place and the failure to qualify for the Champions League for the first in 20 years highlights how far Arsenal are from the team that played at Highbury - bettors may struggle to see the value in their odds

Swansea City

Since their first ever season in the Premier League in 2011/12, Swansea City is now widely accepted as an established top flight team. In truth, the meteoric rise of the Welsh club begun back in 2003/04. As they climbed up the leagues in English soccer, the Swans moved from Vetch Field to the Liberty Stadium in 2005.

After improving their league position in the two previous seasons, Swansea won promotion from League 2 the year before moving into their new stadium. Two years of consistent performances were followed by winning League 1 in 2007/08, before finishing a credible 8th and 7th in the next two campaigns.

Swansea featured in Premier League betting for the first time in their history after winning promotion from the Championship in 2010/11. Could the new stadium be one of the main influencers in their journey from the bottom of the Football League to the Premier League?

Manchester City

Although Manchester City moved from Maine Road to the Etihad Stadium in 2003, it is by no means the biggest change in the club’s recent history. While this move may have had an effect on their performance, Sheik Mansour’s takeover in 2008 and the £900m+ spent on transfers makes analysing any potential impact a difficult task.

The first season at their new ground saw Manchester City narrowly avoid relegation with a 16th place finish in the Premier League (they finished 9th the year before). However, after fluctuating around the lower end of the league table, the Abu Dhabi United Group takeover was completed and there was a great change in terms of personnel and team performance.

In just one season, the vast investment in Manchester City was evident after they finished 5th in 2009/10. A 3rd place finish in 2010/11 was followed by the club’s first league title since 1968 thanks to a dramatic stoppage time winner on the final day of the season. A second league title followed in 2013/14, before a 2nd place finish and a disappointing 4th in 2015/16.

Despite finishing 15 points off of Premier League winner's Chelsea last season, Manchester City are currently favourites in the Premier League Winner odds at 1.900* but it is almost certainly the amount of money spent at the club, not the new stadium, that has caused this.

Hull City

Since moving from Boothferry Park to the KCOM Stadium in 2002, Hull City have been promoted five times and relegated three times in thirteen seasons. Although they managed to reach the Premier League for the first time in their history in 2008/09, staying there has proved to be a difficult task.

Following relegation in 2009/10, the Tigers could only manage two mid-table finishes in the Championship, before earning promotion in 2012/13. Having avoided relegation by four points in 2013/14, they were relegated in 2014/15, promoted in 2015/16 and relegated once more in 2016/17.

Hull City’s new stadium was certainly part of big changes at the club that have provided some form of success. After their relegation last season to the Championship, expect it to take a little while longer to achieve the stability fans are after.

Leicester City

Thanks to the notorious underdog story that saw them crowned Premier League champions 2016, soccer fans across the world know who Leicester City are. However, few will have knowledge of the fifteen years that led to such an unbelievable achievement.

The move from Filbert Street to the King Power Stadium in 2002 got off to the perfect start when the Foxes won promotion to the Premier League in 2002/03. But only one year later, they were relegated back to the championship and a steady decline resulted in relegation to League 1 in 2008/09.

An instant return to the Championship was followed by three top half finishes and a multi-million-pound takeover in 2010. The investment paid dividends after Leicester won the Championship in 2013/14 and of course, the Premier league just two seasons later.

Leicester was the central figure in one of the biggest success stories in the history of soccer. Leicester's regression to the mean resulted in a disappointing finish last season, can they reach similar heights of their Premier League winning campaign? Was it the change of stadium that brought on the Foxes' fairytale story? Or did the Thai takeover play a bigger part in their success?

Southampton

Although Southampton is considered a stable Premier League club after finishing no lower than 14th since their first season back in the Premier League in 2012/13, it has been an arduous journey to get there. When analysing their performance since moving from The Dell to St. Mary’s Stadium in 2001, it could be said that this change greatly affected the team’s performance.

Within two years of moving to St. Mary’s, the Saints finished bottom of the Premier League and were relegated to the second tier of English soccer for the first time since 1978/79. Less than four years later, they suffered a second relegation and found themselves playing in League 1.

By 2010/11, the tide began to turn for Southampton and they won back-to-back promotions thanks to 2nd place finishes in both League 1 and the Championship a year later. Southampton's recent campaigns have produced stability and although their handicap performance hasn't been as good as it should be, the Saints aren't one of the contenders in Premier League relegation betting.

Old Post 09-23-17 10:42 AM
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Following the midweek exertions in the form of Carabao Cup round three fixtures, the Premier League will resume at the home of 2015/16 Champions – Leicester City.

The Foxes will take on Liverpool and having faced Jurgen Klopp’s reds in the League cup and beat them in an entertaining encounter: it’s fair to say the home side will be buzzing at the opportunity to face one of the likely ‘top six’ sides come Saturday. Craig Shakespeare looks settled in and after a string of poor results in the early weeks, Leicester City have showed signs of dogged determination at the back supplemented by their lethal counter-attacking ability to catch teams off guard and it will be interesting to see if they could inflict another blow on Liverpool’s domestic season.

For Liverpool, it is not quite make or break at this point in time, but it is hard to see them regroup quick enough to mount a challenge for the league title, should they drop even more points on Saturday. Jurgen Klopp is under considerable pressure to sustain his position in the top four but Liverpool’s form since the start of 2017/18 has been as inconsistent as ever: a feature since the effervescent German took over the reins from Brendan Rodgers, with little indications of progress, on that front.

Liverpool, who will make the long and arduous trip to Russia in midweek, are in a need of a victory and I daresay, a big one at that, to make amends for the humbling defeat they suffered at the Etihad which is why this game could be even more important for them than their seemingly buoyant opposition.

TEAM NEWS

With Matty James and Adrien Silva definitely out for Saturday’s visit of Liverpool, Craig Shakespeare will be hoping that key forward Jamie Vardy and full-back Christian Fuchs will prove their fitness to get themselves back in contention for the weekend.

For Liverpool, the injury concerns are much deeper and rotation is expected with the second group stage fixture away from home, on the horizon. As many as six first team members are either ruled out or doubtful to feature in the starting eleven.

Liverpool will assess the fitness of Dejan Lovren (back), Joel Matip and Emre Can before Saturday while new signing Alex-Oxlade Chamberlain will need prior assessments and Sadio Mane will miss out due to suspension.

INTERESTING NUMBERS

Liverpool have lost only two of their last 10 Premier League meetings with Leicester City, but both defeats were in the last three matches.
The Foxes can win three home PL matches in a row against Liverpool for the first time.
PREDICTION

I cannot see Leicester City losing this one.

Leicester City 2-2 Liverpool

Old Post 09-23-17 10:44 AM
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This week we saw the third round of the League Cup being played in England and despite its new exotic brand name (Carabao Cup) many Premier League Managers continue to dislike it. Even after his side won against Burton Albion on Wednesday, Jose Mourinho was found complaining about the competition. He said, “If you ask me ‘could English football survive or be even be better without this competition?’ Maybe. Maybe we would be fresher for European competition.” Well, the third round of the Carabao Cup has been played and the focus returns to the league action on the weekend. On Saturday, Mourinho’s Manchester United visit Southampton, who had cunningly – as Jose might believe it – had already exited from the Cup in the second round.

For Pellegrino at Southampton, the second-round exit to Wolves at home must rankle more for the scoreline (0-2) than the exit itself. That score line and three others during this nascent campaign have been goal-less for the Saints. At home, Southampton have not scored a goal against Swansea, Wolves, and Watford. This lack of goals is what caused Claude Puel’s downfall and Pellegrino will need his players to fire sooner than later, if he is not to suffer the same fate.

For all of Jose Mourinho’s mind games about the Carabao Cup, he does not have too many things worrying him at present. In the league, Manchester United are level (and top) with Manchester City with identical points and goal difference values. In Europe, he has a relatively easy group to negotiate and in the League Cup, his side swatted aside Burton Albion 4-1 without too much exertion. In the process, his side has scored 23 goals in all competitions and have had only three scored against them. So, Mourinho need not worry about his side’s freshness. They are currently very dominant on the field and their manager would want them to carry this dominance to St. Mary’s as well.

INTERESTING STATS

Southampton have lost 24 Premier League matches against Manchester United, the most against any opponents.
The Saints have scored in only two games out of six in all competition this season. They have scored four goals in all, three against West Ham and one in last Saturday’s game at Crystal Palace.
Manchester United are undefeated on their last nine visits to St Mary’s Stadium in all competitions.
United are unbeaten in their last six matches at Saint Mary’s but only three of those have been wins, decided by a one-goal margin.
TEAM NEWS

Virgil van Dijk could get his first start of the season, following a brief appearance against Crystal Palace last Saturday. Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg comes back into the squad after the birth of his child, while Charlie Austin could also make a return to the bench.

Mourinho might be tempted to rest Marcus Rashford after it seemed that the forward picked up a knock after winning the game against Burton Albion on Wednesday. This could give Anthony Martial a start in the league. Lukaku, Fellaini, Mkhitaryan, Valencia, David de Gea, Eric Bailly, and Matic were all rested during the midweek game and will all start against Southampton. There is also a possibility that Luke Shaw could make the bench against his former side.

THE VERDICT

Not too many seasons back, this would have been a tough fixture for Manchester United. But this season, it should be a straightforward win for Jose’s team. Southampton are struggling to score and the Red Devils cannot stop scoring. Add to the mix United’s solid defense and the chances of Saints getting anywhere near United’s goal seem remote. These should be an easy-to-pocket three points for Manchester United.

Southampton 0 – 3 Manchester United

Old Post 09-23-17 10:48 AM
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lines are rocking early this morning

Old Post 09-23-17 10:52 AM
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Spanish La Liga

from above plus reverse

SOC [201978] TOTAL u2½-112 (SEVILLA vrs ATLETICO MADRID)

YTD
19-7 +13.34

Old Post 09-23-17 11:08 AM
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Bundesliga

this one's moving now

SOC [202586] WERDER BREMEN -118



SOC [202586] WERDER BREMEN -118
SOC [201978] TOTAL u2½-112 (SEVILLA vrs ATLETICO MADRID)

Old Post 09-23-17 11:16 AM
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Premier League

doubling up here, as i also have it at 2', this is one of those totals i talk with you folks about

SOC [200001] TOTAL o3EV (TOTTENHAM vrs WEST HAM)

Old Post 09-23-17 11:23 AM
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West Ham vs. Tottenham betting: Happy Hammers

There is no doubt that the move from Upton Park to the London Stadium has caused problems both on and off the pitch for West Ham. It must not go unnoticed the trials and tribulations a soccer team often endure when relocating.

Yet it was against Spurs that West Ham enjoyed arguably their finest hour in their first season in Stratford, as Slaven Bilic’s men ended their local rival’s Premier League title hopes with a 1-0 win back in May, courtesy of a 65th-minute winner from Manuel Lanzini.

Despite the difficulties that both West Ham and Tottenham have had to undergo at home recently, both go into Saturday’s clash with records to protect.

Whilst Wembley has been a stumbling block for Spurs, they have won their opening two away fixtures, including an impressive 3-0 win at Goodison Park thanks to a Harry Kane brace.

Due to the World Athletics Championships being held in London, it has been a long and overdue wait for West Ham to have the chance to open their 2017/18 Premier League account at the London Stadium, which came in their 2-0 win against surprise package Huddersfield Town. Albeit a short stint to say the least, West Ham will be looking to keep their 100% record at home come Saturday.
With the supposed ‘August hoodoo’ off of his back, Harry Kane can now focus on what he does best – scoring goals.

Whilst some are also questioning the striker after a slow start to the season, it must be understood that this is a clear pattern in his past record: Kane scored just two goals in the opening 10 Premier League games last season, before going on to win the golden boot.

His shooting numbers are promising: last season Kane averaged 3.7 shots per game and scored 29 goals in as many appearances. This season the Spurs striker is averaging an incredible 6.4 shots per game – dwarfing last season’s number – and if he can find his range like he did last season he should be battling for the golden boot once again.

Kane will be up against a team on Saturday with the joint worst defensive record in the league: conceding 10 goals in five games.

After their abysmal opening three losses (conceding ten goals in the process), drastic changes were needed at West Ham. Slaven Bilic swapped his favoured 4-2-3-1 formation for 3-4-3; playing wing-backs to offer width.

A change in fortune followed, with West Ham drawing and winning their last two games against West Brom and Huddersfield respectively. The biggest change comes in their defence, keeping two clean sheets in a row.

Their formation was not the only change. Their playing style has transformed from a side attempting to play between the lines and down the middle, to a side looking for dangerous crosses from out wide.

The change in style has coincided with the reintroduction of Andy Carroll; back after being sidelined for the start of the season.

With a key target man in Carroll, West Ham have completed on average 38.6 long balls in their last two games; 12 more than their opening four games.

The Hammers have also increased their crossing; they averaged 32.5 attempted crosses across their last two games, 15 more than their opening four games.

If West Ham can get good quality balls to the box, then they will be favoured to win the aerial duels against Spurs; West Ham have won 20.6 ariel duels per game compared to Tottenham’s 14.8.

With the likes of Carroll attacking the crosses - along with possible gaps behind Spurs’ usual marauding fullbacks – then crosses from the wings could offer West Ham their best chances on Saturday.

Old Post 09-23-17 11:36 AM
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Gush

might as well add the Leicester/Liverpool over in your journey & of course a Juventus under
GL

Old Post 09-23-17 11:44 AM
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