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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

Patriots Running Game vs. Texans Front Seven

The Patriots have developed a running game of their own and it starts with the blockers up front. Center Ryan Wendell is grading as our best center in the league while left guard Donald Thomas has more than filled the shoes of injured Logan Mankins, though Mankins is expected to return this week. LT Nate Solder earned a PFF Game Ball last week on the strength of his run blocking and he’s up to +5.8 on the season. In addition to the strong play of the line, the Patriots feature a diverse running game that combines both man and zone blocking to keep defenses off balance. The made a concerted effort to stick with the ground game this season and they may have some success against Houston who loves to play their lighter 2-3-6 dime package 50 percent of the time.

For Houston, the entire defense revolves around DE J.J. Watt, but he deserves his own section of analysis. He has some stout run defenders around him on the line, particularly defensive tackles Earl Mitchell and Shaun Cody. Mitchell ranks ninth among the top 86 qualifiers at the position with a Run Stop Percentage of 9.7. Cody returned to the lineup last week and his RSP is the best in the league at 13.2 percent. Rookie DE Jared Crick has played well as part of the defensive line rotation. He’s grading at +4.0 against the run.

Old Post 12-11-12 12:37 AM
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bbaffert
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Posts: 7067

Watt to do with J.J.?

Run away from him, and he’ll track you down. Throw over him, and he’ll bat it down. Throw away from him, and he’ll sack you. That’s 2012 in a nutshell for Watt who, despite a recent surge by Denver Broncos linebacker Von Miller, is still the likely favorite for Defensive Player of the Year. He’s elite in every facet of the game as he leads all 3-4 defensive ends in Run Stop Percentage at 19.0 percent and Pass Rushing Productivity at 10.1. His +40.7 pass rush grade is off-the-charts and his +73.7 overall grade is just as ludicrous. Now that we’re finally passed the accolades, how will the Patriots look to slow Watt down?

Watt generally lines up at left end in the Texan’s base 3-4 before moving to defensive left tackle in their four-man sub packages, so the onus is likely to be on right guard Dan Connolly and right tackle Sebastian Vollmer. Unfortunately for New England, both players are battling injuries as Connolly left last week’s game early while Vollmer may not have been playing at 100 percent and had a tough outing against Miami Dolphins DE Cameron Wake. Connolly ranks 61st out of 73 qualifying guards with a Pass Blocking Efficiency (PBE) of 95.3, so the Patriots may look to give him some help when Watt is lined up over him on passing downs. When healthy, Vollmer is a fine option as he’s garnering Pro Bowl consideration even after last week’s rough performance. He fell to 22nd in PBE among tackles at 95.5 while providing solid run blocking. It’s very difficult to game plan for a disruptive force like Watt, but expect the Patriots to mix up their offensive line looks as best they can.

Old Post 12-11-12 12:38 AM
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BIG BAD BILL
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Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 8033

Thanks for the info...This helps...I will be talking to you soon...Take care.




2008-2018
2691-2398
53%

You Miss 100% of the Shots You Never Take.

Old Post 12-11-12 12:39 AM
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bbaffert
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Posts: 7067

18% of the run plays J.J. Watt is on the field for end with him making a defensive stop.

The info above is from a site I use weekly to try and get a read on the OL/DL matchups. I said it before but again, they rate every player on the field and they really help me.

As for the game tonight, read it and come to a conclusion. They do not give plays just matchups. I could not come to any conclusion from what they said.

I gotta say this though. Rain? I know I said it before in this thread but in the Texans/Bears game the Texans DL could not get any penetration. In the last 2 years, I have not seen them play a game where they had so many problems getting a push on the OL. My OPINION is that it was the rain. The Bears OL is not that good. Texans had 0 sacks, Watt was a non factor. I can only blame it on the rain.

I have seen every Texans game and they have a bad issue with slipping without bad weather. Foster and the secondary seem to be the most affected. I cannot remember the game but one of our CBs slipped and gave up an easy long TD. Maybe it is their shoes or something. Maybe it is the way they cut or move. Maybe they just are not used to it at all. I do not know but it has been something that I have seen all season.

Either way, I know the Pats have to know they can pick apart the secondary. Joseph might be ok if he is 100%, Jackson is getting better every week, after that the guys are just plain BAD. When the 3rd or even 4th CB's are in the Texans have to get to the QB or they are toast. Safeties minus Manning are not impressive at all.

Now on the Texans side, they can score with anyone. Before Foster, Schaub, Johnson and co. could score with the best of them. They have proven that is still the case the last couple weeks when they were forced to. I guess my point here is you cannot rule the Texans out because of NE's offense.

Kickers - NE has a HUGE EDGE. Graham was not even supposed to be the Texans kicker. He lost the job but the guy, Bullock, got hurt. Graham is lucky when he can hit a 40 yarder.

Special teams- I cannot speak of NE but Houston is very solid here. They get excellent coverage on kicks and punts and Keshawn is dangerous every time he gets the ball.

Turnovers - NE is a hell of a ball hawking team. That is a worry for me as a Texans fan. The can strip the ball with the best of them.

In the end, I will be wearing my Schaub uniform and rooting on the Texans here with my sister tonight. I have been a fan of Houston teams through the good and bad for whatever amount of 41 years I could be. This is the 2nd time in our NFL history that I do believe we have a real shot at the ring. I can say confidently that the Houston Texans will win a superbowl in the next couple of years. If Cushing were on the field right now and Joseph was 100% my confidence would be through the roof. This team can get it done though.


GL TO ALL! This is what football is about. Let us hope for no injuries and few bad calls.

Old Post 12-11-12 01:01 AM
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bbaffert
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Posts: 7067

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Old Post 12-11-12 04:04 AM
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bbaffert
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So frustrating.

I let myself get talked off this play by another when I just knew I had it stone cold.

It bothers the hell out of me that some of my good friends may have not made the money they should have because I let myself listen to someone else when I know better.

To those, I apologize. It will NEVER happen again.

Old Post 12-11-12 05:31 AM
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Primetime21


Registered: Nov 2011
Posts: 368

i actually tailed it before you called it back. I even went so far as to bet the TT 28.5, over 50.5 and 5.5. I didn't want to say anything after you took it back just in case I got hammered. didn't wanna put you down in the dumps. but i came away a winner aside from the 1h over! THANK YOU!

Old Post 12-11-12 05:36 AM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
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The call back was my brain playing tricks on me.

I need to be able to post picks and my info and let it flow. I lost my focus on this one and got sidetracked by some comments. It is my fault.

I am glad you and hopefully a few others got in. It eases some of the frustration. Minus the rain, it played out exactly like I had imagined. Harris has to be replaced somehow or I worry about how far the Texans can go.

Another note, I saw the line Texans -9.5 vs Indy. It is down now. It will be interesting to see what it becomes. Truth is, Texans really did not play a game tonight so they might be a solid wager next week if the line goes down near a TD.

Old Post 12-11-12 05:46 AM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
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nxt2g

I sure hope I did not mess up your original play. I hope you got really ticked at me and stuck it out and won.

Either way, i apologize, I have to learn to control my emotions and go with what I know.

Old Post 12-11-12 05:49 AM
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Imrightalot
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Registered: Jan 2007
Posts: 1149

good call




"Sure, luck means a lot in football. Not having a good quarterback is bad luck." -Don Shula-

Old Post 12-11-12 06:01 AM
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brianp
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Registered: Oct 2011
Posts: 1298

Bbaffert, I think you did let the fan inside of you second guess your pick. Oh well, that's what will make the next pick even stronger. It's a learning experience. Good luck and I will look forward to the next shed pick.

Old Post 12-11-12 01:57 PM
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DRB
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Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 1535

Congrats...heck of a call.!

Old Post 12-11-12 04:08 PM
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double11
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Registered: Oct 2006
Posts: 5953

Baf

Hindsight is the best sight.
Give yourself a break




Life can only be understood backwords. But it must be lived forward.

Old Post 12-11-12 07:56 PM
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bbaffert
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Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

Yeah Double,

I am over it now. Time to move on but i did learn a lesson, which is always good.

Also, glad some hit it before I let my crazy brain get to me.

Old Post 12-11-12 09:07 PM
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