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ALDS betting preview: Orioles at Yankees
Series tied 1-1
After earning a split of the first two games in Baltimore, the New York Yankees attempt to cash in on their home-field advantage when they host Game Three of their American League Division Series against the Orioles on Wednesday.
New York broke open a tight series opener in the ninth inning Sunday but dropped a 3-2 nail-biter at Camden Yards on Monday as Baltimore closer Jim Johnson bounced back from a disastrous outing to set down the Yankees in order and notch his first career postseason save.
Game 2 followed the same pattern as the opener, with New York scoring a run in the first inning and Baltimore plating two in the third. The difference may have been the fourth inning as the Orioles allowed the tying run to score on Monday but escaped a bases-loaded, one-out jam Tuesday to preserve their lead. Wei-Yin Chen notched the win in his postseason debut while 40-year-old Andy Pettitte took the loss, failing to add to his all-time playoff victory total of 19.
The Orioles improved to 76-0 when leading after seven innings and 30-9 in one-run games this year. They posted a 6-3 record at Yankee Stadium during the regular season.
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TBS
WEATHER: The forecast in the Bronx is calling for a 20 percent chance of showers earlier in the evening, eventually clear off with temperatures falling into the high 50s. Winds are expected to blow WSW at 13 mph.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Miguel Gonzalez (9-4, 3.25 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Hiroki Kuroda (16-11, 3.32)
Gonzalez won his final three starts of the regular season and allowed two runs or less in five of his last six outings. The 28-year-old Mexican was impressive on the road in his first major league campaign, going 6-2 with a 2.74 ERA in 11 games - including two relief appearances. Gonzalez was 2-0 against the Yankees, with both victories coming in New York. He yielded four runs while striking out eight over 6 2/3 innings July 30 and fanned nine in seven scoreless frames Aug. 31.
Kuroda also finished the regular season strong, winning four of his final five decisions. The 37-year-old native of Japan had the majority of his success this year at home, where he went 11-6 with a 2.72 ERA in 19 outings. Kuroda split his two starts against the Orioles, both of which were at Yankee Stadium. He allowed one run over seven innings in a win April 30 while yielding four runs over 8 1/3 frames in a loss to Gonzalez on Aug. 31.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings in New York.
* Orioles are 29-59 in the last 88 meetings in New York.
* Orioles are 25-56 in the last 81 meetings.
UMP TRENDS - Brian Gorman:
* Over is 4-0-1 in Gormans last five Wednesday games behind home plate.
* Road team is 4-0 in Gormans last four Wednesday games behind home plate vs. New York.
* Over is 5-2 in Gormans last seven games behind home plate vs. New York.
* Orioles are 0-4 in their last four Wednesday games with Gorman behind home plate.
WALK-OFFS:
1. Yankees LF Ichiro Suzuki went 1-for-5 on Monday to extend his hitting streak at Camden Yards to 21 games.
2. New York (245) and Baltimore (214) were the top two teams in the major leagues in home runs during the regular season, but have combined for one over the first two games of the series.
3. Yankees RF Nick Swisher has one hit in his last 33 postseason at-bats with runners in scoring position.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-10-12 07:09 AM |
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CNOTES
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NLDS betting preview: Cardinals at Nationals
St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (-107, 7.5)
Series tied at 1-1
The Washington Nationals are about to host the city’s first playoff game since 1933 when they host the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday. Once that novelty wears off, they will get back to the business of trying to win a series.
The Nationals squandered a chance to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the best-of-five National League Division Series when Jordan Zimmermann struggled in Game 2. Now it is the Cardinals with some momentum and a red-hot Carlos Beltran.
Beltran homered twice in Game 2, boosting his career postseason slugging percentage to higher than .800 and setting the Cardinals on a familiar path. St. Louis dropped the opener of both the NLDS and the NL Championship Series last year before recovering to advance and eventually win the World Series. Washington is full of players making their first postseason appearance but one of the few veterans - Edwin Jackson - gets the start in Game 3.
Jackson was with the Cardinals last October and made four postseason starts. This time, he will be going up against a lineup that pounded out four home runs in Game 2 and led the majors in on-base percentage during the regular season. Allen Craig, Daniel Descalso and Jon Jay all had success in Game 2 and Matt Holliday has yet to break out.
TV: 1:07 p.m. ET, MLBN
WEATHER: The forecast is calling for partialy cloudly skies and temperatures in the mid 60s. Winds are expected to blow SW at 8 mph.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Chris Carpenter (0-2, 3.71 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Edwin Jackson (10-11, 4.03)
Last year’s playoff hero, Carpenter missed the majority of the season after undergoing surgery and has made only three starts in 2012. The veteran right-hander, who accelerated his rehab in order to come back and help the team in the playoffs, did not allow more than three earned runs in any of those three turns and has recorded 12 strikeouts against three walks in 17 total innings. Carpenter is 9-2 with a 3.05 ERA in 15 career postseason starts and has been strong in the past against Washington, posting a 6-1 record with a 3.27 ERA in 12 turns.
Jackson struggled with his consistency down the stretch, allowing one run in three of his final seven starts and a total of 23 (21 earned) in the other four. That inconsistency was at its most apparent against St. Louis. The right-hander struck out eight and did not allow and earned run over eight innings in a win over the Cardinals on Aug. 30 but was pounded for nine runs (eight earned) in only 1 1/3 innings at St. Louis on Sept. 28. Jackson has been better at Nationals Park this season, going 6-6 with a 3.35 ERA in 15 starts.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Washington.
* Over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in Carpenters last seven starts vs. Nationals.
* Cardinals are 1-8 in the last nine meetings in Washington.
UMP TRENDS - Joe West:
* Road team is 10-1 in Wests last 11 Wednesday games behind home plate.
* Road team is 4-1 in Wests last five games behind home plate.
* Over is 3-1-1 in Wests last five games behind home plate vs. Washington.
* Over is 19-7 in Wests last 26 games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.
* Home team is 15-7 in Wests last 22 games behind home plate vs. Washington.
* Nationals are 5-14 in their last 19 games with West behind home plate.
WALK-OFFS:
1. Nationals rookie CF Bryce Harper is 1-for-10 with a double and six strikeouts through the first two games.
2. After failing to record an extra-base hit in Sunday’s opener, the teams combined for 11 in Game 2. St. Louis accounted for eight, including four homers and a triple.
3. Washington has committed four errors in the series while St. Louis has only been charged with one. Of course, the Cardinals’ error led to the deciding runs in the Nationals’ 3-2 victory in Game 1.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-10-12 07:12 AM |
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CNOTES
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Orioles-Yankees meet in Game 3 in the Bronx
BALTIMORE ORIOLES (95-70)
at NEW YORK YANKEES (96-68)
American League Division Series – Series tied 1-1
First pitch: Wednesday, 7:35 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -165, Baltimore +155, Total: 8½
The ALDS shifts to the Bronx for Wednesday's pivotal Game 3 between the Orioles and Yankees.
Game 3 will pit Baltimore right-hander Miguel Gonzalez against New York righty Hiroki Kuroda. These two faced each other on Aug. 31, a game the Orioles won 6-1 at Yankee Stadium, thanks to seven shutout innings from Gonzalez. That was one of six victories for Baltimore in the Bronx this season, taking all three series, two games to one. It was also one of nine Orioles victories in the past 11 games Gonzalez has started. Although Kuroda has been tough at home this year (11-6, 2.72 ERA), all the pressure is squarely on the Yankees here. And while many of the big New York hitters have been terribly unclutch in key spots in recent postseasons, the O's have thrived in pressure all season, going 30-9 in one-run games, and prevailing in 16 straight extra-inning affairs with their stellar bullpen. The pick here is heavy underdog BALTIMORE, which is 63-47 (.573) as an underdog of +100 or more this year, to win Game 3.
This four-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Orioles:
BALTIMORE is 25-11 (69.4%, +19.9 Units) against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was BALTIMORE 4.9, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 4*).
Gonzalez (9-4, 3.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) has had a brilliant rookie campaign, which has been even more impressive on the road. The 28-year-old is 6-2 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in nine away starts, beating New York twice in Yankee Stadium, racking up 17 strikeouts and just one walk in those 13.2 innings. He also finished 2012 on a high note, leading his team to four straight victories by going 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Gonzalez has pitched at least six innings in 10 of his past 11 starts, but if he gets into trouble in his first career postseason outing, Baltimore's bullpen is perfectly capable of bailing him out. Orioles relievers are 32-12 (.727) with a 3.02 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 56 saves (78% success rate) overall this season. These numbers are even more impressive on the road: 16-4 record, 2.53 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 31 saves in 38 chances (82%).
Unlike Gonzalez, Kuroda (9-4, 3.36 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) has struggled down the stretch, allowing 4+ runs in four of his past seven starts. He carries a 4.63 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in this span that started when he surrendered four runs in 8.1 innings in that 6-1 loss to Gonzalez and the Orioles to end August. However, Kuroda did shut down Baltimore in his only other outing against them on April 30, limiting the O's to just one run on four hits in seven strong innings. This will be Kuroda's first postseason appearance since the 2009 NLCS when he was blasted for six runs on six hits in just 1.1 innings in an 11-0 loss in Philadelphia. However, Kuroda pitched very well in his other two playoff starts, both in 2008, going 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has completed seven innings just once in his past six starts this year, which means the Yankees bullpen will likely be needed much more than they have so far this series (1.1 innings, all by David Robertson). New York's bullpen has been solid overall this season (24-17, 3.42 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 80% save conversion rate), but it hasn't been nearly as effective in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, going 10-7 with a 3.69 ERA.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-11-12 12:49 AM |
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CNOTES
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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Wednesday, October 10
Jackson was with Cardinals LY; he was 1-1, 5.60 in four postseason starts in Cards' World Series run. He allowed one (unearned) run vs Cards Aug 30 in a 8-1 win, then gave up nine runs (eight earned) in 12-2 loss at St Louis Sept 28, which sums up his career. He has allowed 12 runs in 22 career postseason IP. Washington is 5-4 vs Cardinals this year, with home side 6-3 in those games; seven of the nine games went over total. Carpenter is 0-2, 3.71 in three starts this season, allowing only 19 baserunners in 17 IP. He is 9-2, 3.05 in his 15 career postseason starts.
Cueto is out until World Series, if Reds get that far; Leake takes his place here- he is 1-0, 3.32 in his last three starts, and beat Giants 5-1 with CG effort back on June 29. Zito is 5-0, 2.35 in his last five starts; he allowed one run in six IP in both his '12 starts vs Cincy, but didn't win either one. Zito is 4-3, 3.25 in his seven postseason starts. Reds/Giants are both 12-7 in their last 19 games; Reds are 6-4 against SF this year after winning twice out west. Under is 10-2 in Cincinnati's last 11 home games, seven of last ten Giant road games also stayed under. Ball doesn't carry as well in this park in cooler weather.
MGonzalez is 3-0, 2.10 in his last four starts, 2-0, 2.63 in two starts against Bronx this season, both in this park. Kuroda is 2-0, 2.92 in his last two starts, 1-1, 2.93 in two starts vs Baltimore this year. Road team is 13-7 in Bronx-O's games this season; Orioles are 6-3 at this site. Over is 5-1-1 in last seven series games. Keep in mind Baltimore is 30-9 in one-run games and has won sixteen extra-inning games in a row. They're a confident team. Pressure is on Bronx.
Detroit is 6-4 vs Oakland this year, won 10 of last 13 games overall, but lost 12 of last 20 road games. Oakland won seven in row and nine of last ten home tilts, Scherzer is 5-1, 1.50 in his last nine starts but has been battling physical problems, most recently a bum ankle- he allowed three runs in 7.1 IP vs A's this year. Griffin is 1-1, 7.79 in his last four starts; he allowed five runs in 4.2 IP at Detroit Sept 18. Home side won all three series games; visitors are 7-2 in other nine playoff games.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-11-12 12:54 AM |
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CNOTES
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MLB
Tuesday, October 9
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ALDS betting preview: Orioles at Yankees
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Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees (-170, 8.5)
Series tied 1-1
After earning a split of the first two games in Baltimore, the New York Yankees attempt to cash in on their home-field advantage when they host Game Three of their American League Division Series against the Orioles on Wednesday.
New York broke open a tight series opener in the ninth inning Sunday but dropped a 3-2 nail-biter at Camden Yards on Monday as Baltimore closer Jim Johnson bounced back from a disastrous outing to set down the Yankees in order and notch his first career postseason save.
Game 2 followed the same pattern as the opener, with New York scoring a run in the first inning and Baltimore plating two in the third. The difference may have been the fourth inning as the Orioles allowed the tying run to score on Monday but escaped a bases-loaded, one-out jam Tuesday to preserve their lead. Wei-Yin Chen notched the win in his postseason debut while 40-year-old Andy Pettitte took the loss, failing to add to his all-time playoff victory total of 19.
The Orioles improved to 76-0 when leading after seven innings and 30-9 in one-run games this year. They posted a 6-3 record at Yankee Stadium during the regular season.
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TBS
WEATHER: The forecast in the Bronx is calling for a 20 percent chance of showers earlier in the evening, eventually clear off with temperatures falling into the high 50s. Winds are expected to blow WSW at 13 mph.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Miguel Gonzalez (9-4, 3.25 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Hiroki Kuroda (16-11, 3.32)
Gonzalez won his final three starts of the regular season and allowed two runs or less in five of his last six outings. The 28-year-old Mexican was impressive on the road in his first major league campaign, going 6-2 with a 2.74 ERA in 11 games - including two relief appearances. Gonzalez was 2-0 against the Yankees, with both victories coming in New York. He yielded four runs while striking out eight over 6 2/3 innings July 30 and fanned nine in seven scoreless frames Aug. 31.
Kuroda also finished the regular season strong, winning four of his final five decisions. The 37-year-old native of Japan had the majority of his success this year at home, where he went 11-6 with a 2.72 ERA in 19 outings. Kuroda split his two starts against the Orioles, both of which were at Yankee Stadium. He allowed one run over seven innings in a win April 30 while yielding four runs over 8 1/3 frames in a loss to Gonzalez on Aug. 31.
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings in New York.
* Orioles are 29-59 in the last 88 meetings in New York.
* Orioles are 25-56 in the last 81 meetings.
UMP TRENDS - Brian Gorman:
* Over is 4-0-1 in Gormans last five Wednesday games behind home plate.
* Road team is 4-0 in Gormans last four Wednesday games behind home plate vs. New York.
* Over is 5-2 in Gormans last seven games behind home plate vs. New York.
* Orioles are 0-4 in their last four Wednesday games with Gorman behind home plate.
WALK-OFFS:
1. Yankees LF Ichiro Suzuki went 1-for-5 on Monday to extend his hitting streak at Camden Yards to 21 games.
2. New York (245) and Baltimore (214) were the top two teams in the major leagues in home runs during the regular season, but have combined for one over the first two games of the series.
3. Yankees RF Nick Swisher has one hit in his last 33 postseason at-bats with runners in scoring position.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-11-12 12:57 AM |
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CNOTES
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MLB
Wednesday, October 10
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ALDS betting preview: Tigers at Athletics
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Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics (-108, 7)
Detroit leads series 2-1
The Oakland Athletics were a little upset about the format of the best-of-five American League Division Series after dropping the first two games on the road. Now that they have a win in their pocket, the Athletics are in position to even the series and go for the win at the O.co Coliseum.
Oakland has won seven straight at home dating back to the regular season and will try to make it eight behind A.J. Griffin on Wednesday night. The A’s used a familiar formula in Game 3, getting strong pitching and defense to go along with timely hitting. Coco Crisp, whose error led to the go-ahead runs in the Game 2 setback, scored a run and robbed a homer from Prince Fielder on Monday.
The first four hitters in the Detroit lineup combined to go 1-for-15 with six strikeouts in Oakland’s spacious ballpark but the Tigers have the advantage of the top two strikeout pitchers in baseball lined up for the next two games in Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.
TV: 9:37 p.m. ET, TBS
WEATHER: The forecast calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 60s. Winds are expected to blow west at 6 mph.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Max Scherzer (16-7, 3.74 ERA) vs. Athletics RH A.J. Griffin (7-1, 3.06)
Scherzer missed a start with a shoulder strain but came back to pitch the regular season finale, allowing three hits in four scoreless innings. The right-hander finished behind only Verlander with 231 strikeouts and has not surrendered more than three runs in a start since Aug. 5. Scherzer suffered the shoulder injury against Oakland on Sept. 18 and was lifter after allowing one run in two innings. He beat the A’s in Oakland on May 10, striking out nine and yielding two runs in 6 1/3 frames.
Griffin struggled down the stretch and was knocked out of the regular season finale after just 2 2/3 innings. The 24-year-old rookie did not complete six innings in any of his last four starts and suffered his lone loss against Detroit on Sept. 18. Griffin was lit up for five runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings in that turn, surrendering home runs to Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and Jhonny Peralta. Griffin has yet to lose at home, going 3-0 with a 3.21 ERA in eight starts.
TRENDS:
* Over is 3-0-1 in Scherzers last four starts vs. Athletics.
* Tigers are 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 14-6-1 in the last 21 meetings in Oakland.
UMP TRENDS - Eric Cooper:
* Over is 4-0 in Coopers last four games behind home plate vs. Oakland.
* Over is 4-0 in Coopers last four Wednesday games behind home plate vs. Detroit.
* Tigers are 3-7 in their last 10 games with Cooper behind home plate.
* Athletics are 5-18 in their last 23 games with Cooper behind home plate.
WALK-OFFS:
1. Fielder was robbed three times in Game 3 and is batting just .083 (1-for-12) in the series.
2. Oakland relievers Ryan Cook, Grant Balfour and Sean Doolittle, who combined to allow four runs (two earned) with two blown saves and a loss in Game 2, combined to strikeout five in three scoreless innings in Game 3.
3. Detroit’s string of right-handed starters has kept the right-handed side of the A’s platoons on the bench. Seth Smith and Brandon Moss will likely continue to start in place of Jonny Gomes and Chris Carter.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-11-12 12:59 AM |
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CNOTES
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MLB
Short Sheet
Wednesday, October 10
National League
NL Division Series, Game Three (Series Tied, 1-1)
St Louis at Washington, 1:05 ET TBS
Carpenter: 1-9 TSR against the money line in day games
Jackson: Washington 20-6 SU when playing on Wednesday
NL Division Series, Game Four (Cincinnati Leads, 2-1)
San Francisco at Cincinnati, 4:05 ET TBS
Zito: San Francisco 34-15 SU after scoring 2 runs or less
Leake: Cincinnati is 2-8 SU at home after allowing 4 runs or less 4 straight games
American League
AL Division Series, Game Three (Series Tied, 1-1)
Baltimore at NY Yankees, 7:35 ET TBS
Gonzalez: Baltimore 15-5 SU when playing with a day off
Kuroda: NY Yankees 10-15 SU with a well rested bullpen
AL Division Series, Game Four (Detroit Leads, 2-1)
Detroit at Oakland, 9:35 ET TBS
Scherzer: Detroit 10-16 SU in road games after having won 4 or 5 of 6
Griffin: 9-2 TSR when the total is 7 to 8.5
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-11-12 01:01 AM |
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CNOTES
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Orioles & Yankees Head To Game 4 In The Bronx
Joe Girardi is undecided on possibly moving Alex Rodriguez down in the order.
Thus far, the MLB playoffs have looked a lot like the regular season...very competitive. None of the division round matchups will end in sweeps, and there’s a chance that at least the Orioles-Yankees series will go the maximum five games.
As we said, that’s no surprise, considering the nature of the 2012 campaign.
Whether the Baltimore-New York series goes to a deciding fifth game will depend upon the outcome of Thursday night’s riveting Game 4 matchup in The Bronx. Birds manager Buck Showalter sends the startlingly-effective Joe Saunders to the mound to oppose the Yankees’ Phil Hughes.
First pitch is scheduled at 7:35 p.m. (ET) on Thursday night, with TBS providing the TV coverage.
The Orioles announced their intention to stay in this series after battling back for a 3-2 win in Game 2 on Monday night. That result came after the Yankees had erupted for five runs in the ninth inning of Game 1, when Russell Martin’s homer triggered an avalanche of runs and provided CC Sabathia with more than enough cushion for a 7-2 win. Baltimore, however, battled back to level the series on Monday.
Battling back has been a Birds trademark all season. Especially against the Yankees, who had long dominated this rivalry vs. their AL East rivals and won the first four games between the teams this season. Entering Wednesday night’s Game 3, however, Baltimore had won 10 of the past 16 meetings.
One of the main topics of discussion as this ALDS headed back to The Bronx was what Joe Girardi might want to do with the struggling Alex Rodriguez, who struck out five times in the first two games at Camden Yards and managed just one hit in nine at bats over the two games in Baltimore. A-Rod’s numbers dipped this season, and his production has waned since returning from a hand injury in September, with 67 consecutive at bats without an extra-base hit.
There have been suggestions (if you can call them as much) in the New York media that Girardi ought to drop A-Rod from his third spot in the batting order. But Girardi, recalling how much controversy predecessor Joe Torre caused when dropping A-Rod to the eighth spot in the batting order during the 2006 ALDS against the Tigers, might want to avoid causing such a stir...especially since he believes A-Rod is close to a breakout after making solid contact on a few of his outs in Baltimore.
But many Yanks fans would rather see 2B Robinson Cano, who had nine straight multi-hit games to finish the regular season, plus an RBI double on Monday night, moved up to the three spot in the batting order.
Rodriguez, however, wasn’t the only Yankee to struggle in Monday’s loss, as the Bronx Bombers were just 2 for 10 with runners in scoring position, stranding ten in the 3-2 defeat.
Whatever the batting order looks like on Thursday night, the Yanks will be trying to solve the lefty Saunders, who has been remarkably effective since joining the O’s from Arizona, with whom he had posted a mediocre 6-10 record, in late August. After a shaky first outing vs. the White Sox, Saunders was superb in his six subsequent regular-season starts, posting a 2.75 ERA. Baltimore won four of those six starts and lost the other two only when providing Saunders with minimal run support.
One of Saunders’ starts with the O’s was a modestly-effective 5 2/3 inning stint vs. the Yankees on September 8, allowing two runs and five hits in an eventual 5-4 Birds win. He’s 3-1 in his career vs. the Yankees but has yet to pitch in the new stadium in The Bronx, which opened in 2009.
Hughes' recent efforts are cause for concern. Over his last three regular-season starts, Hughes was hit hard, allowing 18 hits and 13 runs (all earned) over 16 1/3 IP, with an ERA of 7.16. In two September starts vs. the Orioles, Hughes was not especially sharp, allowing 14 hits and eight runs (7 earned) over 11 IP in games Sept. 2 and 7, splitting decisions. Over his career, Hughes is 6-4 vs. the O’s with a 5.10 ERA.
Hughes, however, did pitch better this season at Yankee Stadium than on the road, as his 11-4 record and 3.74 ERA in the Bronx would indicate.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-12-12 12:35 AM |
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CNOTES
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MLB
Dunkel
Detroit at Oakland
The A's look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is 0-6 ATS in Justin Verlander's last 6 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Oakland is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the A's favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+120). Here are all of today's picks.
THURSDAY, OCTOBER 11
Game 933-934: San Francisco at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 15.061; Cincinnati (Latos) 16.018
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-120); Under
Game 935-936: St. Louis at Washington (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 17.126; Washington (Detwiler) 15.522
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110); Over
Game 937-938: Baltimore at NY Yankees (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Saunders) 16.822; NY Yankees (Hughes) 15.613
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+125); Under
Game 939-940: Detroit at Oakland (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.715; Oakland (Parker) 16.478
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+120); Over
MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Thursday, October 11
Huge amount of pressure on favored Washington to stay alive here, seeing as best pitcher Strasburg is healthy but inactive. Detwiler is 1-2, 7.03 in his last five starts; he allowed seven runs (three earned) in 2.1 IP vs St Louis in his last start, Sept 30. He is 1-0, 3.00 in his last three home starts. Eight of ten series games have gone over total. Lohse won Wild Card game Friday; he is 3-0, 3.28 in his last four starts. He allowed 12 runs in 11.2 IP in two no-decisions vs Washington this season.
Cain is 3-1, 2.10 in his last five starts, but is 0-2, 6.17 against Reds this year, including Game 1 loss at home. Latos came in after Cueto got hurt and threw 57 pitches, allowing one run in four IP. He is 2-0, 1.13 in his last four outings. Giants are 13-7 in last 20 games, Reds 12-8; road team is 4-0 in this series, so huge pressure on Cincy not to gag after leading in series 2-0. Under is 10-3 in Cincinnati's last 13 home games, 7-4 in last eleven Giant road games. Winner moves on to NLCS.
Girardi pinch-hit for ARod in 9th inning last night, was rewarded with pair of HRs by Ibanez, so Bronx advances to ALCS with win here. Road team is 13-8 in Bronx-O's games this season; Orioles are 6-4 at this site. Saunders is 4-2, 2.80 in his last seven starts; he won only start vs Bronx, allowing two runs in 5.2 IP Sept 8. Hughes is 1-1, 7.16 in his last three starts, 2-2, 5.16 in his four starts vs Baltimore this season. Over is 5-2-1 in last eight series games. O's are now 30-10 in one-run games, 16-3 in extra-inning games, but all three losses were to Bronx.
Detroit lost 13 of last 21 road games, but Verlander is 3-0, 0.90 vs Oakland in '12, 5-0, 1.03 in his last five starts overall. Parker is 4-1, 2.90 in his last six starts, 0-2, 3.75 vs Detroit this season. Oakland won eight in row and 10 of last 11 home games. Home side won all four series games; visitors are 9-3 in other playoff series. Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Oakland games, 4-1-1 in last six Detroit games. A's were down 3-1 in 9th inning last night, scored three to stay alive; they have momentum, but Verlander is tough nut to crack.
MLB
Thursday, October 11
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Trend Report
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1:07 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. CINCINNATI
San Francisco is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games on the road
San Francisco is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Cincinnati's last 19 games
Cincinnati is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against San Francisco
4:07 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. WASHINGTON
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
7:37 PM
BALTIMORE vs. NY YANKEES
Baltimore is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing NY Yankees
NY Yankees are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Yankees's last 10 games when playing at home against Baltimore
9:37 PM
DETROIT vs. OAKLAND
Detroit is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games
Oakland is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games at home
MLB
Long Sheet
Thursday, October 11
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SAN FRANCISCO (96 - 70) at CINCINNATI (99 - 67) - 1:05 PM
MATT CAIN (R) vs. MAT LATOS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 38-20 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
CINCINNATI is 99-67 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CINCINNATI is 43-23 (+16.5 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
CINCINNATI is 99-67 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 40-22 (+14.4 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
LATOS is 23-10 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
LATOS is 23-10 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 96-70 (+19.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 482-473 (+47.9 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-2 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games in playoff games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 36-30 (+15.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 96-70 (+19.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 48-35 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
LATOS is 18-28 (-13.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 6-5 (+1.0 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.8 Units)
MATT CAIN vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
CAIN is 4-6 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 3.66 and a WHIP of 1.317.
His team's record is 4-7 (-5.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-5. (+0.0 units)
MAT LATOS vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
LATOS is 4-3 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 2.19 and a WHIP of 0.892.
His team's record is 5-6 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-5. (+0.3 units)
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ST LOUIS (91 - 75) at WASHINGTON (99 - 66) - 4:05 PM
KYLE LOHSE (R) vs. ROSS DETWILER (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 91-75 (-2.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 28-36 (-15.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 91-75 (-2.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 48-37 (+8.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WASHINGTON is 99-66 (+21.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 35-20 (+12.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
WASHINGTON is 96-66 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
WASHINGTON is 70-46 (+16.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 51-37 (+14.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 19-9 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-5 (-0.2 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
8 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+5.8 Units)
KYLE LOHSE vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
LOHSE is 4-2 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 5.35 and a WHIP of 1.275.
His team's record is 8-4 (+3.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-7. (-2.9 units)
ROSS DETWILER vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
DETWILER is 0-1 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 11.59 and a WHIP of 3.863.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)
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BALTIMORE (95 - 71) at NY YANKEES (97 - 68) - 7:35 PM
JOE SAUNDERS (L) vs. PHIL HUGHES (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 91-56 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
NY YANKEES are 72-41 (+18.1 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
HUGHES is 20-3 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
BALTIMORE is 87-61 (+36.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BALTIMORE is 63-56 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BALTIMORE is 67-52 (+25.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
BALTIMORE is 40-30 (+18.0 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
BALTIMORE is 55-43 (+27.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BALTIMORE is 27-24 (+12.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
BALTIMORE is 95-71 (+37.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BALTIMORE is 47-36 (+27.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
BALTIMORE is 44-31 (+21.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
NY YANKEES are 119-102 (-18.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 10-11 (+3.3 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
10 of 21 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-1.8 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)
JOE SAUNDERS vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
SAUNDERS is 3-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 5.48 and a WHIP of 1.602.
His team's record is 5-3 (+2.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.2 units)
PHIL HUGHES vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
HUGHES is 6-4 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 5.33 and a WHIP of 1.480.
His team's record is 8-6 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-3. (+6.0 units)
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DETROIT (90 - 76) at OAKLAND (96 - 70) - 9:35 PM
JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. JARROD PARKER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 20-27 (-10.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DETROIT is 90-76 (-11.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 9-18 (-14.8 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -150 this season.
DETROIT is 38-45 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
DETROIT is 86-73 (-12.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
DETROIT is 52-50 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
VERLANDER is 3-8 (-8.4 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season. (Team's Record)
OAKLAND is 59-36 (+27.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
OAKLAND is 51-40 (+21.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OAKLAND is 29-21 (+13.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
OAKLAND is 96-70 (+37.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 51-30 (+21.6 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
OAKLAND is 90-67 (+32.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
OAKLAND is 66-42 (+32.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
OAKLAND is 64-41 (+32.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-5 (+0.0 Units) against OAKLAND this season
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.9 Units)
JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. OAKLAND since 1997
VERLANDER is 9-5 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 2.54 and a WHIP of 1.138.
His team's record is 9-6 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-10. (-5.9 units)
JARROD PARKER vs. DETROIT since 1997
PARKER is 0-2 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-12-12 12:46 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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MLB
Thursday, October 11
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ALDS betting previews: Orioles at Yankees, Tigers at A's
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Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees (-149)
New York leads series 2-1
The Baltimore Orioles were two outs away from taking a 2-1 lead in the American League Division Series. Now they're one loss away from having their magical season come to an end as they attempt to stave off elimination Thursday against the Yankees in New York. Behind a brilliant pitching performance by Miguel Gonzalez and solo home runs from fellow rookies Ryan Flaherty and Manny Machado, Baltimore held a 2-1 advantage Wednesday until Raul Ibanez hit a one-out homer in the ninth inning while pinch-hitting for the struggling Alex Rodriguez.
The game-tying blast came off Orioles closer Jim Johnson, who entered the series opener with the score tied and proceeded to yield five runs while recording just one out. Ibanez provided more heroics in the 12th inning on Wednesday, crushing Brian Matusz's first pitch of the frame for his second blast of the night and a 2-1 series lead. The Orioles fell to 16-3 in extra-inning games this year, with all three losses coming against the Yankees. The first two setbacks occurred on April 10-11. Baltimore also dropped to 76-1 when leading after seven innings.
New York has won two of the last three games in which it has trailed after eight innings. Prior to Oct. 2 against Boston, it was 0-58 in such contests this year. Rodriguez is 1-for-12 with seven strikeouts thus far in the series. Derek Jeter, who left Wednesday's game after eight innings with a foot injury, hit his fifth career playoff triple in the third frame to tie George Brett and Rafael Furcal for the most all time.
TV: 7:37 p.m. ET, TBS
WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the mid 50s. Winds are expected to blow WSW at 7 mph.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles LH Joe Saunders (1-0, 1.59 ERA) (3-3, 3.63) vs. Yankees RH Phil Hughes (16-13, 4.23 ERA)
Saunders is coming off a solid effort in the wild-card game against Texas on Friday, when he allowed one run and six hits over 5 2/3 innings. The 31-year-old improved to 3-1 lifetime versus the Yankees on Sept. 8 as he yielded two runs and five hits in 5 1/3 frames. Saunders faced New York twice in the 2009 AL Championship Series while with the Los Angeles Angels, coming away with a no-decision in Game Two despite allowing two runs in seven innings before surrendering three runs in only 3 1/3 frames and suffering the loss in the series-ending Game Six.
Hughes has struggled over his last three starts, allowing a total of 13 runs in 16 1/3 innings while going 1-1. The 26-year-old lasted only 4 2/3 frames at Toronto on Sept. 30, escaping with a no-decision despite surrendering five runs and eight hits. Hughes went 2-2 with a 4.76 ERA in four starts against the Orioles this season and is 6-4 with a 5.10 ERA in 17 career meetings, including three relief appearances.
TRENDS:
* Over is 8-2-1 in Hughes' last 11 starts vs. Orioles.
* Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
* Yankees are 6-2 in Hughes' last eight starts vs. Orioles.
* Under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings in New York.
* Orioles are 29-60 in the last 89 meetings in New York.
* Orioles are 25-57 in the last 82 meetings.
UMP TRENDS - Fieldin Culbreth:
* Over is 8-1 in Culbreths last 9 games behind home plate vs. New York.
* Home team is 4-1 in Culbreths last 5 games behind home plate.
* Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games with Culbreth behind home plate.
* Under is 20-7 in Culbreths last 27 games behind home plate.
WALK-OFFS:
1. Hughes had most of his success during the regular season at home, where he went 11-4 with a 3.74 ERA in 16 starts.
2. Ibanez is the first player to hit two home runs in a postseason game in which he did not start.
3. The Orioles have allowed 12 runs thus far in the series. Johnson has surrendered six of them.
Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics (+131)
Series is tied 2-2
The Oakland Athletics made a habit of dramatic wins during the regular season and have carried that over into the playoffs. After leading the majors with 14 walk-off wins during the regular season, the Athletics had their first of the playoffs in Game 4 on Wednesday, staving off elimination and forcing a decisive Game 5. Their reward is another date with Justin Verlander, who will start for the Detroit Tigers opposite Jarrod Parker.
The Tigers were counting the days until the start of the American League Championship Series with a 3-1 lead in the ninth inning on Wednesday but Seth Smith clubbed a two-run double to tie it and Coco Crisp won it with a single to right two batters later. Oakland was miffed about the postseason format after dropping the first two on the road but have no complaints anymore with a chance to advance in their own ballpark on Thursday night. Detroit has not lost three in a row since a four-game slide from Sep. 7-10.
TV: 9:37 p.m. ET, TBS
WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 50s. Winds are expected blow WSW at 7 mph.
PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Justin Verlander (1-0, 1.29 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Jarrod Parker (0-1, 2.84)
Verlander dominated in Game 1, allowing one run on three hits while striking out 11 and walking four. The reigning Cy Young and MVP has allowed two earned runs or less in his last five starts dating back to the regular season and has gone 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA in three starts against Oakland this season. Verlander has made nine starts in his career at O.co Coliseum, going 4-4 with a 2.47 ERA.
Parker could not quite match up with Verlander in Game 1, allowing three runs (two earned) and seven hits in 6 1/3 innings. The rookie right-hander’s own error allowed the go-ahead run to score in the third and Alex Avila reached him for a solo home run in the fifth. Parker still managed to post his seventh straight quality start. Like most Athletics pitchers, Parker has been better at home, going 6-5 with a 2.61 ERA in 15 starts at the Coliseum.
TRENDS:
* Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in Oakland.
* Tigers are 4-0 in Verlanders last four starts vs. Athletics.
* Under is 5-1 in Verlanders last six road starts vs. Athletics.
* Under is 8-2 in Verlanders last 10 starts vs. Athletics.
* Tigers are 1-4 in the last five meetings in Oakland.
UMP TRENDS - Wally Bell:
* Under is 5-1 in Bells last six games behind home plate.
* Road team is 6-1 in Bells last seven games behind home plate.
* Tigers are 11-23 in their last 34 games with Bell behind home plate.
WALK-OFFS:
1. Detroit Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera is 5-for-16 (.312) in the series but has yet to home or drive in a run.
2. Oakland RF Josh Reddick kicked off the rally in the ninth with a single to improve to 2-for-14 with eight strikeouts in the series.
3. Tigers slugger Prince Fielder broke out of a slump with a home run in a 2-for-4 performance. He had been 1-for-12 in the first four games
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-12-12 12:48 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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MLB
Short Sheet
Thursday, October 11
National League
NL Division Series, Game Five (Series Tied, 2-2)
San Francisco at Cincinnati, 1:05 ET TBS
Cain: San Francisco 31-14 Over away with a line of +125 to -125
Latos: Cincinnati 18-4 SU revenging a loss as a home favorite
NL Division Series, Game Four (St. Louis Leads, 2-1)
St Louis at Washington, 4:05 ET TBS
Lohse: St. Louis 16-5 SU away after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Detwiler: Washington 31-16 Over off BB Overs
American League
AL Division Series, Game Four (New York Leads, 2-1)
Baltimore at NY Yankees, 7:35 ET TBS
Saunders: Baltimore 23-8 Under after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less
Hughes: 20-3 TSR at home in night games
AL Division Series, Game Five (Series Tied, 2-2)
Detroit at Oakland, 9:35 ET TNT
Verlander: 3-8 TSR away in night games
Parker: Oakland 10-2 SU off BB wins by 2 runs or less
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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10-12-12 12:49 AM |
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