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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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In an exact rematch from last season’s final, Toronto FC will host the Seattle Sounders at MLS Cup 2017 on Saturday, December 9th at 4 pm ET. Last year, Seattle pulled off the small upset in penalty kicks (5-4) after surviving regulation and extra time 0-0 to win their first ever MLS Cup. It was almost a perfect scenario having Toronto +1900 to win the Cup from preseason, and Seattle +0.5 goals in the final, but it just wasn’t meant to be. This year, Toronto FC are the -215 favorites to get their revenge on Seattle and lift the trophy, while the Sounders are +185 to repeat as champions.
Toronto FC and Seattle Sounders both entered the season among the top favorites along with New York Red Bulls and LA Galaxy. Toronto FC stayed at the top for the entire season while Seattle started slowly and slipped a bit to +1400 before getting red-hot.
Current Betting Odds
There are a few other ways to bet on the MLS Cup including the 3-way moneylines and 2-way spreads based on regulation-time only. This means that your bet is graded based on the 90 minutes of regulation only, and anything after that is irrelevant to your wager. Here are your options for betting regulation-time based on current consensus odds around the market:
Moneyline
Seattle +411
Toronto -120
Draw +252
Spread
Seattle +½ (+110)
Toronto -½ (-120)
Total
Over 2½ (+129)
Under 2½ (-144)
Where The Bets Are Going
Since opening at -108 we’ve definitely seen some sharp money taking Toronto FC (29% of bets), moving the line up to -127 before settling at -120 where it currently sits. The majority of public bettors (57%) are taking big underdog Seattle to win straight up, but their odds have drifted from +355 to +411 since opening. The Sounders are trendy underdogs that you want to avoid, and early bettors that already pounced on Seattle got the worst of the number so far.
We’ve also seen a little bit of line movement away from the draw from +249 to +252 but hardly anything significant yet compared to the moves on Toronto and Seattle. As always, I’m keeping my eye on the draw odds and betting %’s since that’s where there tends to be value, especially in final matches. The MLS Cup has been tied after regulation in 3 of the last 4 seasons, but so far just 14% of bettors are taking the draw for Toronto/Seattle. Public bettors tend to overlook draws in general, but even more so in final matches since they like to pick a side to win straight up. Whether it’s the MLS Cup, Champions League Final, World Cup Final or any other, don’t be afraid to bet the draw.
How They Got Here
Toronto FC rolled through the entire season, winning 20 of 34 games and amassing 69 points along the way, a league-record. They were also the best on goals differential at +37. They were able to squeeze through New York Red Bulls and Columbus Crew in the Eastern Conference Playoffs to reach the MLS Cup for their second straight season. Forward Jozy Altidore has been hampered by an ankle injury but fully expects to be ready by Saturday.
As for Seattle, they started the season slowly with just 5 wins in their first 17 matches. However, they got incredibly hot through the summer and went on a 13-match unbeaten run over the course of four different months (June, July, August, September). The Sounders have actually been more impressive than Toronto in the playoffs and have yet to concede a goal in four playoff games this season. The playoff streak extends even further going back to last year’s MLS Cup 2016 in Toronto. Unfortunately, they’ll be missing defensive midfielder Osvaldo due to injury
Where The Value Lies
While there’s definitely been early sharp money taking Toronto FC, I’m still very intrigued by the draw. If the public continues to overlook the draw and we see the line come down, it may be time to pounce. With the juice heavily on the Under 2.5 (-144) and movement going that way since opening, we shouldn’t expect goals to be easy to come by. I could see the match ending 1-1 in regulation with Toronto FC getting their revenge in extra time/penalties to win MLS Cup 2017 on their home turf.
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12-08-17 11:14 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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I was definitely leaning toward the draw for the Manchester Derby but now that Man City have moved from +105 to +130, I think there could be some value on them to win. No matter what, I’m going to avoid Man United as they’ve been getting more than 60% of tickets all week long. Too trendy of an underdog, and bettors have already drained any value out of the line.
Bettors also love the underdog in the Merseyside Derby as Everton are getting the bulk of support as big +1050 underdogs. Liverpool are -350 on the moneyline to take care of business at home and they’ve been throttling teams lately. Despite their form, I think the line is a bit high, especially since Everton have finally put a solid string of matches together in the Premier League and Europa League. I’m not quite ready to trust them against a good team, but I certainly understand why bettors are risking a little on The Toffees for a big potential payout.
The quality matches are on Sunday, but the value plays are on Saturday. It looks like the public is catching on to draws with low totals as there’s more than 30% of tickets on the two that I like: Brighton/Huddersfield +205 and West Brom/Swansea +210. Fortunately the lines haven’t moved too much and the public support isn’t too high, so I’m definitely sticking to what works. Both totals are listed at 2 goals with juice toward the Under, more great news for draw bettors.
There’s also a big underdog that I think is undervalued, no matter how ugly they may appear: West Ham +630 vs. Chelsea. This is the opening match of the week early on Saturday morning on West Ham’s own turf, albeit a short travel for Chelsea. Public bettors are all over Chelsea at -200 odds and I couldn’t find anyone out there giving West Ham any chance whatsover. The home side should have some confidence after a strong (but losing) performance at Man City last weekend, and the visitors had to play a Champions League game against Atletico Madrid on Tuesday night. No one’s really expecting an upset here, but at +630 it’s worth a shot.
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12-09-17 12:50 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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West Ham go into this match against Chelsea only one point off the bottom of the league and in possession of both the league’s worst goal difference and the worst defensive record. The Hammers have conceded 32 goals this season and have conceded three or more goals in seven of their 15 league matches this season. They have lost all four of their matches against the top six and have conceded at least three goals in three of those four occasions. That does not bode well for their match against Chelsea.
After a bit of an up and down start to the season, Chelsea have won six of their last seven league matches with the only other result being a draw away to Liverpool. The Blues’ fantastic form has propelled them into third in the table and brought them only three points behind second place Manchester United. They’ll face an awful West Ham side and, while it may be an away game against a fellow London team, they’ll be licking their chops going into this match.
TEAM NEWS
Jose Fonte, James Collins and Andy Carroll are all expected to be out of this match, while Javier Hernandez, Sam Byrum, Winston Reid, Michail Antonio, and Chiekhou Kouyate are all doubts, according to Physioroom.com.
Chelsea are expected to have a pretty full squad, but they are going to be without David Luiz, according to physioroom.com
PREDICTION
Chelsea should win this game without getting into second gear. West Ham are bad and the Olympic Stadium has been a pretty easy place for away teams to go.
Prediction: 3-0 Chelsea
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12-09-17 10:24 AM |
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