we still have a nice weekend card, let's keep rolling folks
GL

Chojniczanka Chojnice v GKS Tychy 71 | Friday 17th May 2019, 17:30
Chojniczanka Chojnice have seen 15/16 (94%) of their home league games feature winning Both Teams To Score bets with matches averaging 3.38 goals per-game.

GKS Tychy 71 have seen 10/16 (62%) of their away league games feature winning Both Teams To Score bets with matches averaging 2.38 goals per-game.

Collectively, these two clubs have seen an average of just 2.88 goals per-game in their respective home/away matches and paid out in the Both Teams To Score column in 25/32 (78%) outings, a percentage success rate that would imply odds around 2/7

Manchester City v Watford | Saturday 18th May 2019, 17:00 | BBC
Given that Manchester City finished 48 points better off in the Premier League than their opponents this weekend, it is little wonder that the Citizens are generally as short as 1/4 to win this encounter.

Watford come in to this game with just one win – against bottom side Huddersfield – from their six matches since they beat Wolves in that epic semi-final, but I am prepared to discount those games. Players minds have clearly been on the Wembley showpiece since that incredible comeback and I do actually feel that they have enough attacking ability to cause City problems.

The Hornets may have lost 11 of their 12 matches against the Big Six this campaign, but they were competitive in most of those and did manage to find the net in both games against City.

Five of their 11 defeats against the aforementioned half dozen came via a scoreline of two goals to one and I fancy that result again here. It’s 9/1 with SkyBet and I advise supplementing that with a 3-1 victory for Pep’s side at 10/1 with Bet365.

I have written many a time about the frequency of this scoreline under Guardiola; City have won in this manner on seven occasions in the Premier League this term and 17 of the Catalan’s 114 league matches as City boss. That implies that there is a 15% chance of this occurring yet the odds suggest its around 9%.

If Watford are to score – which I believe they will – then their hero from the semi-final Gerard Deulofeu seems to be their most likely scorer. The Spaniard has scored 12 goals in 33 matches in all competitions this season and in five of his last 13 matches overall (including against City in the 3-1 defeat). At 11/2 with Betfred, backing him to score in 90 minutes looks to be worth a few pennies to me.

At shorter prices, I did consider backing the second half to feature more goals but that’s not really a fun watch for such a short price, so I would rather throw a few darts at bigger prices.

The first month of the 2019 MLS season was profitable for draws and overs, but since then the tide has turned.

Home teams have won just over 50% of matches, but that’s resulted in a loss of 4.04 units overall

Road clubs have profited 12.15 units due to a recent surge of underdogs pulling off upset wins
Draws continue to suffer and are down more than 18 units on the season thus far, something that has become the norm in MLS

Early in the season, overs were hitting at a nearly 60% clip, but goals have dried up despite the weather heating up

MLS Week 12 Line Moves
Philadelphia (-115 to -130) vs. Seattle
The Union are attracting all the early action and oddsmakers have adjusted their odds from -115 to -130. The Sounders have been one of the top teams in the league, but Philadelphia hasn’t lost since April 13, a run of four wins and one draw.
The Sounders were one of my preseason MLS Cup picks, but I love the way this Philadelphia team has come together this season and I’m not interested in fading them right now.

Houston (-125 to -150) vs. D.C. United
D.C. United have made it a habit of playing low-scoring games, and it’s worked out recently. They haven’t dropped points since a 1-0 loss at Minnesota United and conceded just twice in the last five matches, but the market has heavily shifted toward the Houston Dynamo from -125 to -150.

Lines usually move toward home favorites, and now that D.C. United are available above +400, they’re worthy of a wager to pull off the upset.

LAFC (+140 to +105) at FC Dallas
LAFC has cemented themselves as the favorites to win the 2019 MLS Cup and have already amassed 30 points through 13 matches. They just beat FC Dallas on Thursday night, 2-0, and have shifted from +140 to +105 for Sunday night in Los Angeles.

Bayern Munich opened as the heavy -700 favorites to win the Bundesliga this season, but the race has been a lot closer than many expected.

Dortmund were actually the favorites for the bulk of December, January and February, but since then they’ve returned to chasing Bayern from an odds standpoint.

Bayern Munich had a golden chance to wrap up the title in Week 37 but weren’t able to score against RB Leipzig in a 0-0 draw. The dropped points now give Dortmund a slim chance at hoisting the trophy heading into the final match.

For Saturday, oddsmakers opened Bayern in the -200 range to beat Frankfurt, but those odds have shot up to -325 since the match now has significant importance. The draw is currently listed at +450, a result which would also be enough for Bayern to clinch the title.

Public bettors aren’t backing Bayern Munich as much as I thought they would. Less than 40% of all wagers have come in on the defending Bundesliga champions, so clearly, casual bettors are hoping for a big upset from Frankfurt. Sharp money has been largely responsible for the line movement toward Bayern Munich.

If Dortmund aren’t able to beat Monchengladbach on Saturday then it’s irrelevant what Bayern Munich does. Just 40% of tickets are on Dortmund and oddsmakers have actually adjusted the line slightly toward Monchengladbach (+195 to +185), so we could be in for a surprise in that one.

As we’ve mentioned all season long, Dortmund are somewhat lucky that the title race wasn’t over a while ago. Their xPTS (expected points) is 11 points lower than where they currently stand, meaning they’ve severely exceeded expectations, while Bayern Munich have actually underperformed by nearly three full points.

The two clubs’ expected goal differential (xGD) also sheds light on how much better Bayern Munich have been over the course of the season than Dortmund: Bayern’s xGD is hovering around 60 goals (!) compared to Dortmund’s 20, an overall margin of nearly 40 goals.

In their head-to-head meetings this season, Dortmund defeated Bayern Munich, 3-2, on November 10th, but Bayern put on a clinic in a 5-0 win on April 6th.

Strasbourg v Rennes | Saturday 18th May 2019, 20:00
Strasbourg have seen 13/18 (72%) of their home league games feature winning Both Teams To Score bets with matches averaging 3.00 goals per-game.

Rennes have seen 15/18 (83%) of their away league games feature winning Both Teams To Score bets with matches averaging 3.33 goals per-game.

Collectively, these two clubs have seen an average of just 3.17 goals per-game in their respective home/away matches and paid out in the Both Teams To Score column in 28/36 (78%) outings, a percentage success rate that would imply odds around 2/7.

We can back Both Teams To Score

Manchester City are aiming for the domestic treble after already winning the Premier League and League Cup this season.

Three clubs have won the FA Cup and top flight competition in England: Arsenal (1992-93), Liverpool (2000-01) and Chelsea (2006-07), but none have captured all three titles in the same season.

Man City would become the first English team to pull off the feat and are currently listed at -850 odds (about an 89.5% implied probability) to do so.

Odds to Win the FA Cup
Manchester City -850
Watford +575

Manchester City were available at +250 odds before their fourth round match against Burnley and +125 prior to Newport County in the fifth round. They then went on to sneak past Swansea City in the quarterfinal and Brighton in the semifinal, both by one-goal margins.

Watford’s path was much more difficult, defeating Woking, Newcastle, QPR, Crystal Palace and Wolves to reach the final against Man City.

Betting Odds (90 Minutes Regulation)
Manchester City -430
Watford +1130
Draw +580
Over/Under 3 (o-118)

more than half the moneyline bets have come in on Watford (+1130) to pull off the shocker. However, sportsbooks around the market don’t appear to be too worried about those casual bettors since the line has shifted toward Man City from -375 to -430 since opening.

Man City have been responsible for about 35% of wagers and only 8% is taking the match to go into extra time at +580 odds.

In the totals market, the over (3) has seen some sharp money and juice has been adjusted from -104 to -118.

Based on the odds, the most likely scorelines are Man City 2-0, Man City 3-0, Man City 1-0, Man City 2-1, Man City 4-0 and Man City 3-1.

Watford have lost 10 straight matches against Man City in all competitions, conceding an average of 3.2 goals per game. Their last victory head-to-head was back in March of 1989, a winless streak of 15 games.

Injury News
Manchester City:

PROBABLE – Fernandinho (knee)
PROBABLE – Kevin de Bruyne (hamstring)
PROBABLE – Benjamin Mendy (knee)
OUT – Claudio Bravo (Achilles)
Watford:

PROBABLE – Gerard Deulofeu (leg)
PROBABLE – Jose Holebas (suspension overturned)
OUT – Domingos Quina (shoulder)
OUT – Sebastian Prodl (knee)
Prediction
In a weird way, the pressure is now off of Manchester City after they edged past Liverpool by a single point to win the Premier League title. Goals haven’t exactly been flying in for Pep Guardiola’s squad, but I’d count on City finding the back of the net plenty on Saturday.

Hoffenheim Overs were money to bet on, just an ATM
GL

Milan v Frosinone | Sunday 19th May 2019, 17:00 | Premier Sports
Milan’s hopes of a top four finish in Serie A and Champions League qualification remains possible after the Rossoneri crept past Fiorentina last weekend. Hakan Calhanoglu’s glancing header proved decisive in Florence to keep Gennaro Gattuso’s group within three points with two very winnable games to round off the campaign.

With Atalanta travelling to Turin to face Juventus immediately after this encounter, Milan will be hoping to collect maximum points at home to already-relegated Frosinone and pile the pressure on the Bergamo outfit ahead of next weekend’s final fixtures. Realistically, their form since the Derby della Madonnina defeat in March could prove insurmountable.

Nevertheless, the Rossoneri will undoubtedly give it a good go. The host have registered only three triumphs in 10 across all competitions, although back-to-back victories over Bologna and Fiorentina have lifted the mood around San Siro. Gattuso’s troops have also shown consistency when welcoming the lesser lights to their Milan base.

Under Gattuso’s watch, AC have W18-D7-L5 at San Siro in Serie A action with W11-D2-L1 recorded against clubs outside the current top four this term. The Rossoneri have W13-D1-L1 when hosting clubs in 13th and below since the start of last season and are understandably short-priced favourites to succeed again on Sunday.

Frosinone to come up short
Frosinone are on their way back down to Serie B after suffering from a dreadful opening stanza. The guests picked up a sole point from their opening eight encounters and had table a solitary victory before Christmas. The Canarini have found things tough against the top-flight elite too, pocketing a single point in 15 games against the top-eight (W0-D1-L14).

Marco Baroni’s men have managed a league-low 0.45 Expected Goals (xG) from open play on average and posted an xG ratio on the road below the 30% mark. The strugglers have W2-D2-L9 since mid-February but only the very first game in this sequence away at Juventus saw Frosinone go down by more than two clear goals and they’re unlikely to be blown away.

Only Torino have scored fewer goals than Milan in the top half of the table and only three of the Rossoneri’s 17 victories have arrived by three goals or more. Eleven clubs average a better xG figure than Gattuso’s men and nine teams have bettered their xG from open play returns in 2018/19, adding further credence to the case this might not be a whitewash.

The betting angle
Therefore, I’m happy dipping into the Bet Builder facility from Bet365 to support a Milan win, Under 5 Goals and Frosinone to receive Over 1 Card for a 20/21 play.

I’ve already made the obvious case for a home success, whilst fewer than five goals have been scored in 62/72 (86%) of their combined games. Dipping down to their respective home/away matches and 26/36 (72%) combined contests produced Under 3.5 Goals with the xG average hitting 2.40 and actual goals per-game sitting at 2.50 in the same sample.

Finally, Frosinone average 2.89 cards per-game, which rises to 3.39 on the road – the second-highest figure in Serie A. The Canarini have picked up at least 20 Bookings Points in all bar four games as guests and are unlikely to relish a final outing at the San Siro.

406137503
SOC Canuelas FC DRAW +184

406137504
SOC El Porvenir DRAW +184

glta

406137503
SOC Canuelas FC DRAW +184

406137504
SOC El Porvenir DRAW +184