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playtowin
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Not only is SB XLVIII the first Super Bowl in 20 years to pair No. 1 seeds from each conference, both teams bring identical 15-3 records into the fray.

Looking deeper, each team squared off against five common opponents (both faced the AFC South) this season, both going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in those games with Denver going 5-0 ITS (In The Stats) for a net of +748 yards. Seattle was 4-1 ITS for net of +428 yards,

In games versus fellow playoff teams this season, the Broncos went 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 7-2 ITS for a net of +621 yards. The Seahawks were 4-2 SU and ATS, 3-2-1 ITS, for a net of +244 yards.

Edge: None.

Head-To-Head

The Broncos are 16-5 SU and 12-8-1 ATS in games versus the Seahawks since 1993.

Denver has won the last 10 games in a row in this series in games in which they’ve owned a win percentage of .800 or greater.

Seattle is 1-19 SU in its last twenty games versus AFC West opponents who sport a win percentage of .800 or greater.

Edge: Broncos.

Old Post 02-02-14 01:47 AM
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playtowin
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The Broncos are 16-5 SU and 12-8-1 ATS in games versus the Seahawks since 1993.

Denver has won the last 10 games in a row in this series in games in which they’ve owned a win percentage of .800 or greater.

Seattle is 1-19 SU in its last twenty games versus AFC West opponents who sport a win percentage of .800 or greater.

Edge: Broncos.

Statistically Speaking

Seattle’s defense is ranked No.1 overall, surrendering 284 YPG while allowing a league low 15 PPG. Denver’s offense is ranked No. 1 overall, gaining 454 YPG, scoring a league best 36 PPG.

This marks the fifth time in Super Bowl history that a team with the No. 1 defense has faced the team with the No. 1 offense. Defense has beat offense 3 of the 4 previous meetings. In addition teams with the better defense have won 39 of the previous 47 Super Bowls.

However, teams with the better defense are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS the last seven Super Bowls.

Edge: None.

Old Post 02-02-14 01:49 AM
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playtowin
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Denver’s John Fox brings an 8-5 SU and ATS NFL postseason career mark into this game, dropping a 32-29 decision as a 7-point dog to New England in SB XXVII.

Fox is just 11-22 SU and 12-20-1 ATS in his NFL career in games versus .769 or greater opposition.

Seattle’s Pete Carroll is 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS in his NFL playoff career.

The good news is Carroll is 36-24-4 ATS as an underdog in the NFL. The bad news is he is 1-5 SU/ATS as a dog of 2 or less points, and 0-11 SU as an underdog in games in which his team owns a win percentage of .647 or more.

Edge: None.

Old Post 02-02-14 01:55 AM
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wildcat76
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Wayne Root

Wayne Root Incredible PINNACLE Superbowl Pick, WINNER OF 7 OF LAST 9!!

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +2.5

Old Post 02-02-14 01:56 AM
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playtowin
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Super Bowl History

The NFC has controlled the last 32 Super Bowls, going 21-11 SU and 20-10-3 ATS, including 4-1 SU and ATS the last five years. The AFC, though, actually holds the upper hand of late, going 10-6 SU the last 16 years.

The last NFC No. 1 seed (Seahawks), other than New Orleans in 2009, to win a Super Bowl was St. Louis in 2000.

17 of the last 20 quarterbacks have owned a QB Rating of 92.6 or better.

Favorites of 3 or less points (Broncos) are 7-4 SU and ATS, and 5-6 to the ‘Under’.

Teams who won their last two playoff games against foes that were off a playoff road win (Seahawks) are 4-8 SU/ATS, including 1-5 SU/ATS since 2000.

Teams who score 20 or fewer points in the game are 6-30 SU and 9-33 ATS. Teams who score 21 or more points in the game are 40-12 SU and 36-14-2 ATS.

The SU winner of a Super Bowl game is 39-6-2 ATS all-time.

Edge: None.

Old Post 02-02-14 01:57 AM
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wildcat76
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playtowin

are those your thoughts on page 2 or someone else's , you used the word I so I guess they are yours ?

Old Post 02-02-14 01:57 AM
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playtowin
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The oddsmakers have done their best job posting Over/Under totals on Super Bowl games. That’s confirmed by the fact that there have been 24 ‘Overs' and 22 ‘Unders’ in this history of the big game – with no total available in the inaugural game.

After the Giants and Patriots played to 17-14 ‘Under’ in 2008, each of the last five Super Bowl totals results have alternated, going: O-U-O-U-O since.

The big story in the world of Over/Under total in the NFL this season was the success realized in non-conference games throughout the 2013 season as these games were an amazing 49-15 to the ‘Over’.

Despite the success of this betting trend this season, there has not been a major move to the ‘Over’ in this year’s Super Bowl, due largely to the fact the game is being played outdoors in New Jersey.

Cold temperatures, snow and wind will likely be the determining factor as to which direction the opening total of 47.5 settles.

Edge: The weatherman.

Old Post 02-02-14 01:59 AM
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playtowin
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SEATTLE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 57-84 ATS (-35.4 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 24-46 ATS (-26.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
DENVER is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Old Post 02-02-14 02:03 AM
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wildcat76
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The Machine

Broncos ML 30*

1st Half Under 24


Julius Thomas Under 55.5 Receiving Yards

Seattle more penalties than Denver


Marshawn Lynch Under 91.5 Rushing Yards


Marshawn Lynch Under 15.5 Receiving Yards


Monte Ball Under 10.5 Receiving Yards


S. Hauschka Over 1.5 Field Goals

Old Post 02-02-14 02:03 AM
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wildcat76
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Scott Delany

I see Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch has the all-around garden variety running back proposition bets available at most sports books. Some are more intriguing to me than others, but the first one I want you looking at is the number of receptions he will have in the championship game.

I see the number listed at two (2) receptions, with the Over being priced at +110. That truly makes no sense to me, knowing the Seahawks' Russell Wilson will be looking to use dink-and-dunk methods to move the ball effectively in this cold-weather game. Although Wilson has top targets to turn to, including Percy Harvin, who will return, his best option in those short-yardage situations will be Lynch.

The quietly spoken running back who didn't have much to say during Tuesday's Media Day, I think will speak in volumes with a diverse offensive effort, and should catch at least two passes from Wilson. That would be a push, at the very least. But let's just say they find a rhythm - Wilson and Lynch - they could easily connect four times.

In 16 regular season games, Lynch caught 2 or more passes 10 different times. In seven games he caught at least three passes. In two playoffs games, he has just one reception, I understand that. But this is an entirely different football game, and his services will need to expand for this game. For the record, his most receptions in one game this season - it came against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium, where he caught six passes. In fact, he was most effective as a receiver with six receptions for 73 yards, while he rushed for only 47 yards.

Your first free prop play for Sunday's big game...

5* MARSHAWN LYNCH OVER 2 RECEPTIONS


WILSON PROP


To go along with a play on Marshawn Lynch catching more than two passes in the big game, I have to believe his teammate, and quarterback, Russell Wilson, will complete more than 16-1/2 passes in this game.

Though it's easy to say the second-year pro has been in a funk of late, averaging just 12.5 completions in the playoffs, and 12.75 in his last four games overall, this is the big stage and his presence is necessary for a team win.

Wilson will also welcome back Percy Harvin, and against Denver’s 27th-ranked pass defense, I suspect he'll be able to produce much better numbers than we've seen since mid-December.

The 5-foot-11, 205-pound strong-armed quarterback completed at least 18 passes in seven regular-season games, and 15 or more passes in 10 regular-season games. He also responded in his team's biggest game to-date - the NFC Championship against San Francisco - with 16 completions against the 49ers' stalwart defense.

Provided there is no inclement weather, which is becoming evident with latest forecasts, Wilson should be within this number by the time the fourth quarter rolls around, and if the game is as tight as the point spread is prescribing, his dink-and-dunk methods will help creep his tally over the number.

4* RUSSELL WILSON OVER 16-1/2 COMPLETIONS

BAILEY PROP
Scott Delaney

Another valuable price I see with the big-game props is on Denver cornerback Champ Bailey, and whether or not he'll nab himself an interception. Whether or not the former Georgia-standouot who has waited 15 years to be on this stage actually has a chance against the Seahawks' young gunslinger, Russell Wilson, is beyond me. But you have a guy like that back there in that secondary, and a price of +350 to swipe one pass, I think you have to take a chance.

The Broncos have the 27th-ranked pass defense, and something tells me that's going to give Wilson a bit of confidence -- some chutzpah, if you will -- to stand back in the pocket and fire away at Denver's secondary. And in that cold weather, one good shot from a defensive lineman could result in a wobbly pass Bailey will zero in on.

The hype of Richard Sherman in this game would make any defensive back fired up for their own performance, and I can't think of a better veteran to invest in than a veteran like Bailey.

The key is to keep Wilson contained in the pocket, and I think the Broncos will have a good chance at doing that during the early part of the game, and if we're going to cash in on this prop, it'll be in the second or third quarter.

Regardless of the outcome, or what you think the Broncos are capable of in this game, it's worth a small play on Bailey getting an interception.

3* YES BAILEY INTERCEPTION

Old Post 02-02-14 02:06 AM
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wildcat76
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Indian Cowboy

3-Unit Play. #101. Take Seattle +2.5 over Denver Broncos (Sunday @ 6:30pm est).
The last public consensus that we saw had the Broncos favored by 68% of the public. The line actually opened up at a pick-em and now it sits at the Broncos -2.5 as the public has increased this line. It sounds exciting and very "Cindarella-ish" if you will. Peyton Manning, post surgery, the greatest offense in NFL History, rolls in and wins his 2nd Super Bowl and becoming the first quarterback in the history of the NFL to win with 2 separate teams - and therefore, establishing himself as likely the greatest NFL Quarterback of all time. Fantastic. But, that likely won't happen. When the Broncos faced the Seahawks earlier this year - albeit in pre-season in Seattle, the Seahawks dominated and routed this team by essentially 30 points. Sure, it's pre-season and it doesn't count in the record. But, the fact remains, the Seahawks are fantastic at causing turnovers as they did to Hillman and stripping the receivers. The Broncos will get their yards and consequently move the ball but the difference will be allowing field goals instead of touchdowns and the other key is causing turnovers which is what the Seahawks do well. Pete Carroll is a coaching genius and is a secondary coach by nature as well as a defensive coach by nature. Carrol is also one of the best game planners as well and as good as the Broncos are, the defense will be allowed to play and be physical here which will cause problems for the Broncos as the Seahawks are one of the few teams in the league that have several lock down corners and not just Sherman. On top of that, they have a defensive front that are some of the most physical in the league and will cause all sorts of problems for Manning. This is a defense that is athletic, physical and of course is number one in the league and if you take a look at the contests the Broncos lost, they are to teams that have the ability to be physical and are able to run the ball. This is a quality public fade as if the Broncos were truly expected to win this game, you would see a line to the effect of -6.5 overall. But, it sits at -2.5 and it allows for a quality public fade. The Seahawks are 13-4 ATS when facing a team with a winning record, the Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as they are usually a public team - and the Seahawks are 26-10 ATS in their last 36 on Field Turf whereas the Broncos are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 contests on Field Turf.

2-Unit Play. #102. Take Under 48 - Seattle vs. Denver Broncos (Sunday @ 6:30pm est):
This is a small public fade. What Seattle will try do to this game and what Carroll without a doubt will game plan is to keep this Broncos offense off the field. And, with a legitimate running game (note, Seattle has 47% of its plays as designed run plays - largest in the league). So, how do you stop the greatest offense in NFL History? Just keep them off the field. Look for Seattle defense to run the ball, drain the clock, and take possession with shorter passes and to have long extended drives. This is the same team that has faced other potent offenses such as the Saints and they consistently got up for them by keeping such offenses off the field. This is not a far cry for this team to gameplan and as a team that dominated the Broncos at home in a pre-season game, this team by no means is intimidated by Denver and look for this team to take the public down a bit here as this game likely goes under the posted total. Combine that with Denver's defense feeling slighted as the talk has constantly been about the Seattle defense with Danny Trevathan even recently being quoted as saying, "everyone is overlooking me" and by the end of the game no one will overlook me again (synopsis). Look for this Denver defense to get up as they will look to take that slight out on Russel Wilson as Seattle does not have a potent offense to begin with. Thus, look for this game to likely go under the posted total. The Under is 7-0 in the Seahawks last 7 contests overall, the Under is 5-0 for the Seahawks following a win and the Under is 4-0 for the Broncos following a win as well.

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Total Field Goals made by Matt Prater. Over 1.5.
Yes. (-120)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Will Either team score Score 3 Unanswered times in the Game?
No. (+155)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Will either team score in the Final 2 Minutes of the First Half.
No. (+200)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Will either team score in the Final 3.5 Minutes of the Game.
No. (+140)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Will both teams Make more than 33 Yard Field Goals?
Yes. (+175)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Total QB Sacks by Both Teams Over 4.5
Yes. (+140)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. First Kickoff for Steven Hauschka be Touchback.
Yes. (+155)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. First Kickoff for Prater be Touchback.
Yes. (+150)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Longest TD of the Game. Over 44.5.
Yes. (-110)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Will the Team that Scores first Win the Game?
No. (+150)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Total Interceptions by Both Teams.
Over 1.5 (-130)

Prop. 2-Unit Play.. Total Fumbles Over 1.5 by Both Teams.
Over 1.5 (+150)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Total Rushing Yards by Russel Wilson Over 30.5.
Yes. (-110)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Longest Rush by Russel Wilson Over 11.5 Yards.
Yes. (+110)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Longest Completion by Russell Wilson Over 38.5
Yes. (-110)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Longest Rush by Robert Turbin. Over 5.5 Yards.
Yes. (-120)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Total Number of Different Seahawks to Score. Over 3.5 (Includes Kicker and 2 point conversions Count)
Over 3.5 (+160)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Total 1st Quarter Points by the Seahawks. Over 3.5 Points.
Over 3.5 Points (-110).

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Total 3rd Down Conversions by the Seahawks.
Over 5.0 (+120)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Longest Completion by Peyton Manning.
Over 34.5 (-110)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Total Receiving Yards by Moreno. Over 24.5.
Over 24.5. Yes. (-110)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Most Completions +10.5 Russel Wilson over Peyton Manning (-110)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Most Gross Passing Yards +78.5 Yards Russel Wilson over Peyton Manning (-110)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Highest Scoring Quarter by Both Teams. Under 20 (-110)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. Lebron James will have more 3-point field goals than Russel Wilson will have Touchdown Passes (+105)

Prop. 1-Unit Play. Total Points Scored between 41-45 (+600)

Prop. 2-Unit Play. First Half-Winner Seahawks (+180)

Old Post 02-02-14 04:15 PM
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wildcat76
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LA Syndicate - Broncos (ML), Broncos -1/2 (-105 1st half)

Pinnacle Syndicate-Seahawks +3

Chicago Syndicate - Big Play Broncos (ML) - - Regular Plays Over 48 - - Broncos -1/2 (+135) 1st quarter

Vegas Syndicate- under 48

Old Post 02-02-14 04:19 PM
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wildcat76
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Mr East Props

TOTAL COMBINED ACCEPTED PENALTIES? UNDER 12.5 -150 It is easy to see which way the odds makers want you to bet offering sucker odds on the over at +120, and deterrent odds on the over, and rightfully so, but just a bad line all together. While both of these teams were heavily penalized this season, that has been the case in prior Super Bowl's as well, without any change in how these games are called. Once you get into the playoffs the referees swallow the whistles as much as possible. Let's take a look at all NFL games over 20+ years and what we see is the following in all regular season games: 2928 times a game resulted in more than 12 penalties 2,928 times and less than 13 penalties 3185 times. That represents 47.9% of all games having 13 or more penalties, making the odds here not worth wagering on. Now let's take a look at all playoff games over the last 12 years and we see an entirely different picture. There were 13 or more total penalties in 41 games, and 12 or less in 101 games. That means just 28.9% of all games would go over the 12.5 posted here, and we have tremendous value on the under. Looking at the last 23 Super Bowls we see similar numbers with just 6 of the 23 having had 13 or more penalties 26.1% of all games, right in line with the entire playoff picture. I like the value on the under here.

WILL THERE BE A SCORELESS QUARTER IN THE GAME? NO -280 This prop based on all Super Bowl games to date show that 15 of the 47 Super Bowl games played have seen a scoreless quarter, or 31.9% of all games. That is right within a statistical acceptance range of the -280 line offered here. However, when you look back at the early years of the Super Bowl, scoring was at a premium. The first 11 Super Bowls played saw 7 games feature a scoreless quarter, and a lot of that is based on what scoring was like in that era. The defenses ruled, and in those first 11 Super Bowls the posted total was an average of 37. What has since happened, counting those 11 games, all Super Bowl totals have averaged 46. It is certainly probable that games with a posted total in the 30s would feature a higher rate of scoreless quarters by default. looking in the most recent era where NFL scoring has risen, if you take the last 16 years, and look at totals posted from 45-49 we see that 7 of the 8 have not featured a scoreless quarter. Denver has also only had 11 scoreless quarters in their 18 games, out of 72 possibilities, or just 15.3% of all quarters, ad Seattle just 15 out of their 72, or 20.8% of the time. Looking aat the Seattle defense we see 33 of 72 scoreless quarters and Denver with 22 of 72. Denver has had only 1 game all season where they were shutout in more than 1 quarter, and Seattle just 3, so for both to match up with a 0 in the same qurter is certainly less likely than the -280 odds offered here.

Old Post 02-02-14 04:30 PM
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Jason Sharpe

7 Unit Play Take #101 Seattle +2.5 over Denver (6:30pm est):
All season long the NFC was favored over the AFC in the Super Bowl "look-ahead lines" that you could bet here in Las Vegas. In fact you could even bet all of the possible Super Bowl match-ups the week BEFORE the conference championship games and all of them had Seattle FAVORED over Denver. So what happened? What changed in just one game?

My best advice to anyone betting on the NFL is to look for overreactions by the betting public and then bet the opposite of that. We have a prime example of that here with this Super Bowl game as the public fell in love with Peyton Manning and the Broncos even more so after their easy win over the New England Patriots. I think the biggest thing to come out of the conference championship weekend was the fact that the Patriots were clearly the worst of the four teams playing on that Sunday. Add that to the Broncos also faced arguably the worst of the 12 NFL playoff teams this year, going up against the San Diego Chargers in their first game of the post-season. It's been a very easy path to this game for Denver. On the Seattle side of things they were tested against Drew Brees and what was a very solid New Orleans Saints team and Seattle shut down the high flying Saints. Their next game was against one of the three best teams in the NFL this year, the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers/Seahawks game had an entirely different feel to it than the Broncos/Patriots contest played earlier that day. It was clearly a big time battle between two heavyweights who were both throwing their best punches at each other all game long.

Seattle has been the elite team in the NFL all season long. They went 15-3 overall on the year and did so while playing in the much better NFC. Not only was their playoff path much tougher but they also beat a good Carolina team and did so on the road to start the season 12-7. They hammered San Francisco 29-3 at home also during the year. They lost on the road but covered the point spread, losing by a last second field goal to San Francisco in a huge revenge game for the 49ers. You can also add in a 34-7 beating over the Saints to the Seahawks regular season resume. Go up and down the Broncos schedule and you just don't see those type of signature wins like we see from the Seahawks this year. In fact I am not sure which victory for Denver during the regular season was their most impressive. Maybe a ten point win over the Chiefs? Look at the one big comparable game that these two teams played versus a good Colts team and with both games coming on the road. Denver was soundly beaten in Indianapolis by the Colts, as Indy led by 19 points in the 4th quarter in that game while Seattle nearly beat Indianapolis in what was a horrific back to back road spot earlier in the year for the Seahawks. It was a game Seattle was leading for most of the contest before falling just short late in that game.

I think it's a much better idea to take in all the information over the entire season than just the last game these two teams played but it's obvious that's what most folks are doing here. At the end of the day there is no doubt what Seattle has done this year has been much more impressive than what the Broncos have accomplished. You really have to wonder what the line in this game would have been if the Seahawks played New England in the championship game and Denver was forced to do battle with the physical 49ers instead. Something tells me the Super Bowl line would be at least Seattle minus three if that were the case.

With the number three being a key number in NFL betting, I highly advise to wait until you see a plus three on the Seahawks if you have a chance. This may not ever happen but if it does it will most likely be just before game time. Either way I don't think we will need those points at the end of the day. Take Seattle.

Old Post 02-02-14 04:31 PM
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doubled1511
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Posts: 3860

Super Bowl XLVIII

Denver/Seattle were AFC West rivals up until 2001, when Seahawks moved to the NFC. Seattle’s first-ever playoff win was 31-7 over the Broncos in the Kingdome in 1983, John Elway’s rookie year. Teams have met only three times since Seattle switched conferences, with Denver winning two of three, last of which was 31-14 Bronco win at Mile High in 2010—that also means the teams meet again next season, in the Thursday night season opener, maybe?

None of that matters here; what matters is what the weather is expected to come up better Sunday night than its been all winter in New Jersey, which favors Denver’s passing game. Broncos scored 41 ppg in winning two of three games on artificial turf this season (at Giants-Cowboys-Patriots). Seattle plays its home games on carpet. Both teams beat the Giants in this stadium this season. If they gave an over/under figure to bet on for TV ratings, I’d take the over. Lot of people are interested in this game.

Denver’s coach/QB have been in Super Bowls before, Manning has obviously won one. Seattle doesn’t have one player who has been in a Super Bowl; they have to guard against being too hyped up for the game, which you read has been a problem in previous Super Bowls. Manning spreads ball out so well, it is difficult for great Seattle defense to focus on stopping 1-2 guys, like Crabtree/Boldin with the 49ers.

This is only second time in last 20 years both #1 seeds got to this point. Underdogs covered five of last six Super Bowls, won four of six SU.

Seattle’s offense has not been as good away from home; they’re a bully team, trying to run ball down your throat. If Denver can contain the run and force Wilson to make plays to win the game, doubtful he can do it. I think the Broncos will win the game, something like 31-16.

Armadillosports.com

Old Post 02-02-14 08:23 PM
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