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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
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EPL,UEFA, & More 4/20-4/26

let's get started with some Europa today
GL

Old Post 04-20-17 09:38 AM
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player
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Lines are really tight today, not too much value IMO. Waiting on lineups but like Celta today DNB -120. Money stacking up on Ajax but with the 2 goal advantage and a massive weekend match in the Eredivisie vs PSV tough to back.

Old Post 04-20-17 04:13 PM
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burytheb
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player

looking at schalke my self but waiting for lineups . Shalke was +105 late last night and still sitting with +105 with money going on ajax




Burytheb

Old Post 04-20-17 04:33 PM
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player
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my book at Schalke down to even money from -114 yesterday. Only thing Schalke is playing for this year, as they are safely in the middle of the pack. Ajax 1 point off first place. I'm leaning towards Schalke if lineup is positive. Would like to see Huntelaar in lineup

Old Post 04-20-17 05:04 PM
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player
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Besiktas just got slammed, I am not sure why as the team news doesn't appear to be newsworthy.

Old Post 04-20-17 08:35 PM
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Gush
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Played Genk +148

GL

Old Post 04-20-17 08:59 PM
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msudogs
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HF

looking at Toronto FC/Chicago Fire U 3 something to ponder
GL

Old Post 04-21-17 09:37 AM
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msudogs
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i'll also be waiting on the lineups for a possible Hoffenhiem O today, let's enjoy
GL

Old Post 04-21-17 09:40 AM
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isdativan
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Seville -2.5 (+116)

Marseille -113




I'm like a walking accident.
Everywhere I go, I wreck.

Old Post 04-21-17 07:48 PM
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msudogs
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Zlatan torn ACL!! Wow! Burnley line about to plummet.

Old Post 04-21-17 07:53 PM
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msudogs
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Week 34 is an abbreviated one since there are two massive FA Cup matches on Saturday and Sunday (Chelsea vs. Tottenham, Arsenal vs. Manchester City).

Old Post 04-22-17 12:41 AM
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msudogs
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Week 33 Results:
Tottenham -400 vs. Bournemouth
Arsenal -200 at Crystal Palace
Everton -193 vs. Burnley
Man City -127 at Southampton
Liverpool -114 at West Brom
Stoke +104 vs. Hull
Watford +169 vs. Swansea
Man Utd +185 vs. Chelsea
Sunderland/West Ham Draw +251
Crystal Palace/Leicester Draw +252

Season Trends:
Home: 160 wins of 323 (+35.19 units)
Away: 89 wins of 323 (-75.58 units)
Draw: 74 wins of 323 (-24.20 units)

Old Post 04-22-17 12:41 AM
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msudogs
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Title Odds at 5Dimes and Current Points:
Chelsea -700 (75)
Tottenham +475 (71)
Liverpool +25000 (66)
Man City +20000 (64)
Man Utd +100000 (60)
Arsenal +175000 (57)

Old Post 04-22-17 01:08 AM
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msudogs
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Middlesbrough +350 at Bournemouth. Unfortunately this pick isn’t strictly betting against the public, as Middlesbrough are actually getting just over half of early moneyline tickets. However, there has been line movement on them from +376 to +350 at Pinnacle, and +355 to +335 CRIS. I was also really encouraged to see Middlesbrough’s effort at home on Monday against Arsenal, a game they really should have earned a point in. They’re still in a relegation battle but this is a winnable game, and I like the way this team has been playing. Middlesbrough have just 1 win in 16 away matches this season, but only a -10 goal differential, meaning they’re usually in tight games and they don’t get blown out on the road. Lots of good signs are pointing towards a big Middlesbrough win on Saturday, so grab them at +350 odds or higher.

Old Post 04-22-17 01:23 AM
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msudogs
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Most Lopsided Around Market: 76% on Swansea (+119)

Biggest Line Moves at Pinnacle: Burnley (+646 to +487), Hull (+101 to -110)

Old Post 04-22-17 01:26 AM
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usc1990
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Jason Bournemouth for me.

Old Post 04-22-17 09:28 AM
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msudogs
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On April 22nd, Chelsea and Tottenham face off at Wembley Stadium for the right to play in the FA Cup final. While these two sides are competing for the league title, first they’ll need to decide which one of them has a shot at winning the FA Cup.

Chelsea still hold a four point lead over Tottenham in the league, but they’ve started to drop in form lately. After their 2-0 loss to Manchester United last weekend, the Blues have lost two of their last four Premier League matches. Their lead at the top has been cut from 10 points down to four in the last month. While they’re still heavy favourites for the league title, this drop in form could hurt them against Tottenham.

Tottenham have been in fantastic form with eight straight wins in all competitions, including back to back 4-0 wins against Watford and Bournemouth. They have not lost a match since February 16th, when they lost 1-0 against KAA Gent. Their form combined with Chelsea’s recent dip gives Mauricio Pochettino’s side every chance of winning this match and advancing to their first FA Cup final since 1991.

TEAM NEWS

Victor Moses, Marcos Alonso, Gary Cahill, and Thibaut Courtois are all doubts for the match on Saturday, but all have decent chances of passing fit for the match, according to Physioroom.com.

Tottenham are likely to be without Michelle Vorm, Harry Winks, Danny Rose and Erik Lamela as they all continue to recover from injuries

PREDICTION

Tottenham have been on fire lately and that gives them an edge going into this one. Their form could give them the edge to push past Chelsea and into the FA Cup final.

PREDICTION: 2-1 TOTTENHAM

Old Post 04-22-17 11:40 AM
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msudogs
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With a large number of soccer bettors looking for more profitable markets than 1X2, where a lack of scoring or a late equaliser can turn even the best betting judgments into losing bets, here's a simple guide on how to beat the bookies in the Over/Under goals markets. A must-read for all soccer bettors.
In comparison to most sports, scoring in soccer is a less frequent event, which makes short tournaments and knock-out games highly unpredictable and league performance the leading indicator of the true strength of a team.

When it comes to betting, it is the average number of goals scored per match that both bookmakers and bettors look at when assessing the odds for the Over/Under markets.

Step 1 – Find the average number of goals per game
The fact that Philippines’ United Football League has an average of as high as 5.75 goals per game and Spain’s Tercera Division an average of as low as 1.71 (according to soccervista) highlights how broad the range of average number of goals per game can be depending on a league. Therefore, the best place to start is by finding the average number of goals per game for the two sides of the match you are interested in betting on.

This is an easy statistical figure to find online. To give you a better idea about differences in the average goals per game across the major European leagues, Premier League matches have an average of 2.4, Italy’s Serie A whopping 3.21 and Spain’s La Liga 2.85 goals per game.

Step 2 – Calculate the probabilities
The random nature of goal scoring is the reason that allows statistics to follow a Poisson distribution as a simple predictive model for Over/Under betting. Let's see what that means in practice.

In his book “Taking Chances”, John Haigh drafted a table that calculates the probabilities of a team scoring 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 or more goals based on their average number of goals per game.
In a match where the home side has an average expectancy of 1.2 goals and the away side 0.8, it is easy to determine the probabilities for the Under 2.5 goals

Since we know the probabilities of each potential score that can lead to Under 2.5, we add them to get the probability of the match ending in Under 2.5 Goals and, therefore, a winning Under 2.5 bet.

Step 3 – Determine what odds are worth betting on
Now that we have established the statistical probability of the match to end in less than 2.5 goals, the only thing that is left is to determine is what odds you should accept.

What that means is that you should only put your money on the Under 2.5 goals, if you find a bookmaker offering odds higher than 1.48. Does that mean that you will have a formula that guarantees a winning bet? The short answer is no. But what you will have, is an easy to apply betting strategy with positive expected value, that guarantees long-term profits, when you aggregate your losses and profits in the long-term.

So, do your research ahead of the weekend, find value bets and sit back and enjoy the action, knowing that you have secured yourself long-term profits.

Old Post 04-22-17 01:28 PM
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msudogs
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like this one

SOC [200101] EVERTON +102

Old Post 04-22-17 01:48 PM
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msudogs
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anyone else like Hull City ? things are popping

Old Post 04-22-17 02:42 PM
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