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CNOTES
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Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NFL

Week 7

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football: Lions at Bears
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-6, 47)

Coming off their bye week, the Chicago Bears attempt to extend their winning streak to four games and remain atop the NFC North when they host the division-rival Detroit Lions on Monday night. Chicago, which enters Week 7 with a half-game division lead over Minnesota, has outscored its opponents 98-27 over its last three contests. The Bears also are hoping to continue their dominance over Detroit as Chicago has won seven of the last eight meetings between the clubs.

The Lions are seeking their second consecutive victory as they are coming off a 26-23 overtime triumph in Philadelphia. Detroit scored 10 points in the final 3:32 of regulation and Jason Hanson kicked his fourth field goal of the game from 45 yards out to complete the comeback. The victory ended the Lions' three-game overall losing streak as well as their five-game skid against the Eagles.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Bears -6, O/U 47.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s with a 55 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out of the south at 12 mph.

ABOUT THE LIONS (2-3): S Louis Delmas and CB Chris Houston each had an interception in last week's victory. They were Detroit's first two interceptions of the season. QB Matthew Stafford is seeking his third straight game with 300 yards passing. He threw for 311 yards in the win over Philadelphia. RB Joique Bell is proving to be a dangerous weapon out of the backfield as he is second among NFC running backs with 178 yards receiving.

ABOUT THE BEARS (4-1): QB Jay Cutler has faced the Lions six times while with Chicago, throwing 10 touchdown passes and just one interception in five victories. The Bears are the first team in NFL history to return an interception for a touchdown five times in its first five games. CB Charles Tillman and LB Lance Briggs have both brought back an interception for a score in each of Chicago's last two contests. Tillman (seven) and Briggs (five) have the most TDs off picks in club history. The Bears have returned an interception for a score in a franchise-high three consecutive contests. DE Julius Peppers has registered 10 sacks in eight meetings with the Lions.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-2 in their last seven meetings.
* Over is 7-1 in Bears’ last eight games following a win.
* Over is 5-1-1 in Lions’ last seven games overall.
* Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Bears are 8-2 on Monday night under coach Lovie Smith.

2. Chicago RB Matt Forte has registered 975 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns in his last eight games against the Lions.

3. Last week, Detroit became the first team to win despite committing 16 penalties since Cincinnati was flagged 17 times in a triumph over Minnesota on Sept. 18, 2005




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-23-12 01:22 AM
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CNOTES
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MNF - Lions at Bears

October 21, 2012

The Bears have put last season's disappointing December behind them as Chicago looks to take full control of the NFC North with a win on Monday night. The Lions head to Soldier Field trying to crawl back in the division race following a comeback victory at Philadelphia in overtime last Sunday.

Lovie Smith's club has lost only one game all season, coming at Green Bay back in Week 2. Since that defeat, the Bears are riding a three-game winning streak, including double-digit victories over St. Louis, Dallas, and Jacksonville. Prior to the bye week, the Bears dominated the Jaguars as six-point road favorites, putting up 38 second-half points in a 41-3 blowout. Chicago's defense continues to dominate by returning five interceptions for touchdowns in the past three weeks, contributing to consecutive 'overs' in the last two victories.

Detroit began this season with high expectations following a Wild Card appearance in 2011, but the Lions stumbled to a 1-3 start. Jim Schwartz's squad failed to cash in all four games in September, including three as a favorite against the Rams, Titans, and Vikings. The Lions finally broke through for backers in a 26-23 triumph over the Eagles in Week 6, as Detroit overcame a 10-point deficit to cash outright as 3 ½-point 'dogs. Detroit's offense put up 449 yards in the win, including 313 through the air from Matthew Stafford.

The Bears have owned the Lions over the last few seasons, beating Detroit in seven of the previous eight meetings. The only victory for Detroit in this stretch came last October at Ford Field, as the Lions improved to 5-0 with a 24-13 win as 6 ½-point favorites. Stafford tossed two touchdowns, while Jahvid Best's 88-yard touchdown scamper put the game away for Lions, who snapped a six-game skid to the Bears dating back to 2007.

Chicago rebounded a month later by routing Detroit, 37-13 as 2 ½-point 'chalk' on a late Sunday November afternoon at Soldier Field. The Bears received three non-offensive touchdowns, including an 82-yard punt return for a score by Devin Hester, while returning two Stafford interceptions for touchdowns. Chicago mustered only 216 yards of offense, but its defense kept Detroit out of the end zone until five minutes remaining in the contest.

Detroit has cashed the 'over' in two of three games away from Ford Field this season, while 'pushing' in a Week 2 loss at San Francisco. Chicago has eclipsed the 34-point mark in three of five games, including a 41-point spot in a season-opening blowout of Indianapolis. Three of the last four meetings in the Windy City have hit the 'over,' as Chicago's rout of Detroit last November went 'over' the 42 ½ point number posted.

In Smith's tenure as coach of the Bears, Chicago owns an 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS mark in Monday night games, including the Week 4 rout at Dallas. The Bears have never lost a home Monday nighter under Smith, winning all three times, but the lone non-cover came as a favorite against Green Bay in 2008. Detroit is playing in only its second Monday night contest since 2008, with the other game coming in last season's 11-point win over Chicago.

Following a 5-1 ATS run against division foes in 2010, the Lions have covered only one of their last seven games inside the NFC North, including an 0-3 ATS record away from Detroit. Under Schwartz, the Lions have covered five consecutive times off a straight-up underdog victory, including outright wins at Tampa Bay and Miami back in 2010.

The Bears are listed as 6 ½-point favorites on Monday night, with the potential of the game moving to seven by kickoff. The total is set at 47, as the temperature will be in the low 60's with a 60% chance of rain. Things get started at 8:40 PM EST from Soldier Field as the game can be seen nationally on ESPN.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-23-12 01:24 AM
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Public wins big!

October 22, 2012

Everyone loves leftover Turkey for sandwiches after Thanksgiving and sometimes lasagna even tastes better the next day, but in the sport book business, leftovers are about as sour a taste as there is during a football season.

On Sunday, sports book directors across Las Vegas had a refrigerator full of leftovers from Saturday. Bettors had shredded the books with most of the top-10 ranked college football teams covering, sending the books to their worst day on the football season, both college and pro.

However, the impact of those games just doesn’t end on Saturday when the final game is posted. Large parlays were just simmering for a few hours waiting for a few public favorites Sunday to cash in six, seven, eight, and even 10-team parlays.

"It’s a little rough right now," LVH Super Book vice-president Jay Kornegay said late Sunday afternoon after the first 10 games had posted. "We had a lot of liability left over in parlays from Saturday that carried over into today."

"We felt like we were in a hole before the day even started."

That hole would get even bigger for the books as the day went on. The books needed the Panthers, Rams, Redskins, and Buccaneers to cover during the first eight games of the early session to wipe out a large portion of all the Saturday leftovers, but were only able to get the Redskins in. So not only were they losing the final legs of parlays that started Saturday, but they were also getting pummeled on game day wagers as well.

Kornegay didn’t have some of the parlay card exposure at his book like some of local properties did, but enough damage was done off the board at his book to make the public’s presence felt.

There were a few a few reports elsewhere of 10-team parlays at 800-to-1 odds cashing with seven to eight games in the bag from Saturday’s popular games that rolled into the Saints, Packers, and Texans on Sunday.

The favorites went 6-2 against-the-spread early on and it was the way that some of games ended that had the books knowing that Sunday wasn’t going to have a happy ending.

“The Cowboys game was disappointing,” Kornegay said. “A two-point win would have been good for us, but the late field goal kind of went in line with the rest of the day.”

The biggest blow came when the Saints beat the Buccaneers 35-28 as 1.5-point favorites, even though there was some sharp money on the Bucs. The Saints game was the last of the eight early games to be posted and was a massive loss after all the parlays had been calculated.

There were only two afternoon games which could have been a recipe for disaster because of so few options for bettors to choose from, but both went the books way with the Jets covering -- but losing 29-26 -- at New England, and the Jaguars covering six points at Oakland in a 26-23 loss.

The good news for the sports books was that the Jets wiped away every existing teaser on the day and also killed a huge lingering pot of parlays that were waiting for the Patriots to win by 11 to cash. The bad news is that the day would get worse.

"We needed the Bengals tonight," Kornegay said just before kickoff of the Sunday night game. "If they don’t cover, I don’t even want to look at the Monday night risk on the Bears-Lions game where all four scenarios (favorite-over, favorite-under, dog-over, dog-under) are going to be losers."

The Steelers won, 24-17 and capped the day as a big winner for the public. But this weekend still isn’t over, because of the Monday night game when anything leftover from Saturday and Sunday will be paid out. With huge parlay payout odds ready to pop, there isn’t much a sports book can do other than prepare their bosses for another losing day so they’re not startled on Tuesday morning.

Chalk one up for the public for a job well done. Their big day was inevitable as things always cycle around, but it was starting to look bleak. However, they stayed the course and were finally rewarded with a big day. You can quite while your ahead, but public has a long ways to go this season before that happens.

Grand Slam of Golf
The LVH is offering odds on the PGA Grand Slam of Golf which will be played Tuesday and Wednesday in Bermuda. The contestants are all the winners of this year's Grand Slam events. Bubba Watson, Keegan Bradley, and Webb Simpson are all 5-to-2 co-favorites, while the Padraig Harrington is 3-to-1.

LVH Games of the Year
I love how the crew at the LVH has been updating their college games of the year all season. We saw Alabama as high as 8.5 last week for their November 3 game at LSU and this week they are 6.5. Oregon is still -2.5 for their November 3 road game at USC and are also 17-point favorites for their games against Cal and Stanford.

On November 24, we have a bunch of huge games with Ohio State -4.5 at home against Michigan, while Florida State is 3.5-point home favorites against Florida and USC is -6 at home against Notre Dame.

Rodeo Kings
Jay Rood has been offering odds on the PBR at MGM Resort sports books for as long as I can remember. The PBR welcomed the odds, actually sending public relations material and offering insider help to talk with Rood and current Aria supervisor Marcus Hurd so they put up solid numbers.

Hurd, from Lubbock, Texas, had long been a rodeo fan growing up with it, and it fell in line with several of the odds they offered on events taking place at their arena’s like SuperCross, odds that no one else in town was offering.

However, the one thing always missing was the National Finals Rodeo. For some reason, the NFR had always asked Las Vegas not to book odds on their events and every sports book obliged. But rumor has it that the NFR has opened their arms up a little bit to the gambling aspect, the same way NHRA drag racing has when they come to town twice a year, including this week.

With the NFR’s approval, odds to win all-around cowboy will be a massive wagering event. The cowboys that roll through Vegas in December aren’t your run of the mill honkey-tonkers with a couple of single dollar bills in their front pocket locking for bargains. They come strapped with endless loads of cash and every intention of gambling it in some form with their win-loss determined by the end of the 10-day event.

The only problem is getting them to know wagering is available since they’ve been trained for almost two decades that there is no odds offered on the NFR. Somehow, I have to believe news will spread quickly among their circles that wagers can be made.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-23-12 01:26 AM
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CNOTES
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NFL October Record:


Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/21/12 11-_10-_1 52.38% 0 Detail
10/18/12 1-_1-_0 50.00% -_50 Detail
10/15/12 1-_1-_0 50.00% -_50 Detail
10/14/12 11-_12-_1 47.83% -_1100 Detail
10/11/12 1-_1-_0 50.00% -_50 Detail
10/08/12 2-_0-_0 100.00% +_1000 Detail
10/07/12 11-_13-_0 45.83% -_1650 Detail
10/04/12 1-_1-_0 50.00% -_50 Detail
10/01/12 0-_2-_0 0.00% -_1100 Detail

Totals 39-_41-_2 48.75% -_3050



Monday, October 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Detroit - 8:30 PM ET Chicago -6.5 500

Chicago - Over 46.5 500




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-23-12 01:32 AM
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Close Calls - Week 7

October 23, 2012

Glancing at the scoreboard won't tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the 4th quarter last week in the Week 7 NFL games. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.

San Francisco 49ers (-7½) 13, Seattle Seahawks 6 (37½): San Francisco led 10-6 late in the third quarter after the only touchdown in the game, but the 49ers would push the lead to seven with just over five minutes to go. The spread bounced around from seven to nine throughout the week with the majority likely right at the touchdown spot, making the final minutes even more interesting. The Seahawks got the ball back at the 11-yard line with just 1:36 to go, as on second down Russell Wilson was sacked, pinning the Seahawks even deeper. A false start worsened things, then on 4th and 17, Russell Wilson completed a pass to Ben Obomanu that ended up just short of the first down. On the play, a chop block penalty was called and the infraction was in the end zone resulting in a safety to the delight of those on the popular 49ers. Seattle did not get the first down however, so the ball went to San Francisco on downs anyway with only 43 seconds left and Seattle with no timeouts. Coach Harbaugh elected to decline the penalty, effectively ending the game, rather than taking the points and leaving the slimmest of shots for the Seahawks with a kickoff after a safety. The final margin stayed at seven in one of the most memorable and controversial NFL finishes relative to the spread ever.

Tennessee Titans (+4½) 35, Buffalo Bills 35 (46½): Neither defense proved overly effective in this AFC clash as a 21-20 halftime lead for the Titans pushed to 28-20 in the third quarter. The Bills answered quickly and with two effective drives led by Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Bills were in business, leading 34-28 entering the fourth quarter. Both offenses would stall, but late in the game and as the Bills attempted to get another first down with just over three minutes to go Fitzpatrick was intercepted, giving the Titans a great chance near midfield. Tennessee needed seven so a field goal was not in the picture as it took a fourth down play for the Titans to connect as Nate Washington snagged a pass in the end zone with just over a minute to go. Buffalo appeared deflated and did not pose a serious threat on its final possession.

Minnesota Vikings (-7) 21, Arizona Cardinals 14 (39): The Vikings took command of this NFC battle in the third quarter after a 31-yard interception return touchdown put them up 21-7 despite very limited yardage production in the game. Arizona got stuck at midfield a few times in the fourth quarter, but with just over a minute to go, the Cardinals struck the end zone to get the margin at seven and leave a push for many on the game, although early week lines were lower than seven. Minnesota had the ball on the Arizona 38 to start its final possession after the failed onside kick and the Vikings were certainly in field goal range late, but the Cardinals ran out of timeouts and Minnesota was ultimately able to run out the clock after rushing for eight yards on fourth and five on the final play instead of attempting a kick.

Dallas Cowboys (-2½) 19, Carolina Panthers 14 (45): The Cowboys had a hard time pulling away from Carolina as Dallas took just a 13-7 lead into the fourth quarter and Carolina took the lead early in the final frame with a touchdown run. After an exchange of punts, Dallas had a productive drive and got back on top with a field goal with just over three minutes to go, but still sat short of the road favorite spread. Carolina only went 20 yards on the next drive and Dallas took the ball in great field position as Dan Bailey pushed the margin to five points with less than a minute to go in the game. The Panthers got 34 yards in the final drive, but could not convert for the upset.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) 24, Cincinnati Bengals 17 (47): The Steelers and Bengals were locked at 17-17 entering the fourth quarter in a game where the line bounced right around even or one either way. Pittsburgh dominated the yardage in the game and the Steelers punched in a touchdown very early in the final quarter to go up by seven. Cincinnati had the ball three times in the fourth quarter, but they produced just one first down and after Pittsburgh got the ball back with about four minutes to go, they did not need to give it back. The game ended with the Steelers on the Cincinnati eight-yard line and the game stayed just 'under'.

Chicago Bears (-6½) 13, Detroit Lions 7 (45): The Lions wound up outgaining the Bears in this sloppy Monday night game, but Chicago held a 13-0 shutout most of the way. Detroit had a fumble near the goal line in the third quarter as well as an 85-yard drive that ended in an interception in the fourth quarter, but they did finally find the end zone with 30 seconds to go in a spread-changing play with the Bears favored by 6½ at most outlets late in the week for a great backdoor cover.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-25-12 01:41 AM
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NFL Rewind - Week 7

October 24, 2012

As we rapidly approach the halfway mark of another NFL season the picture is starting to become clearer on many levels. The cream is rising to the top, while a few upstarts who touted impressive early season records are starting to come back to their typical performance. But, this is the NFL, a league of ultra-parity, where truly in any week, for the most part, any team is capable of pulling off the big upset. Let's examine the numbers…

Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being the best score = 16x5 = 80).

Performance Ratings

Category Offense Defense Total Team Blended

Wins Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank SOS

6 HOU 50.2 4 50.3 2 100.5 1 31

5 SF 47.9 6 49.1 3 96.9 2 16

5 CHI 42.6 13 51.4 1 94.0 3 23

3 DEN 50.3 3 42.3 8 92.6 4 1

4 NE 54.9 1 34.6 22 89.6 5 29

3 PIT 47.6 7 41.0 12 88.6 6 22

3 PHI 42.3 14 45.5 7 87.8 7 14

4 GB 45.3 9 42.1 9 87.4 8 8

3 WAS 54.4 2 32.4 25 86.7 9 28

5 NYG 49.8 5 36.1 18 85.9 10 21

3 DAL 43.3 10 41.0 12 84.3 11 9

5 MIN 41.9 16 41.9 10 83.8 12 31

4 SEA 35.9 27 47.1 5 83.0 13 10

3 MIA 36.7 24 46.2 6 82.8 14 17

2 DET 41.6 17 40.8 14 82.4 15 2

3 SD 41.4 18 40.7 15 82.1 16 26

6 ATL 47.1 8 34.3 23 81.3 17 18

4 ARI 31.8 31 48.6 4 80.4 18 11

1 KC 41.4 18 37.6 17 79.0 19 25

2 TB 40.0 20 39.0 16 79.0 19 20

3 STL 36.9 23 41.1 11 78.0 21 5

3 CIN 39.2 21 35.1 21 74.4 22 32

5 BAL 42.2 15 31.6 27 73.9 23 13

3 NYJ 35.6 28 36.1 19 71.6 24 3

2 OAK 36.1 26 35.4 20 71.5 25 7

3 BUF 42.9 12 28.2 30 71.1 26 28

1 CAR 38.3 22 31.3 28 69.7 27 12

3 IND 35.5 29 33.6 24 69.1 28 19

2 NO 43.0 11 22.9 32 65.9 29 16

1 CLE 32.9 30 31.8 26 64.7 30 24

3 TEN 36.4 25 23.4 31 59.7 31 6

1 JAC 27.3 32 28.9 29 56.3 32 5



*Blended SOS is a weighted average of opponent's performance ratings and opponent's record

Back at the top of the heap are the Houston Texans, who continue to impress outside their SNF loss 2 weeks ago vs. Green Bay. That game was more a case of "probability" where the Packers needed that game and the Texans were overdue to pick up their first loss of the season versus truly whom the better team is in my opinion - which is supported by my numbers. If you follow this column you know for our money the Texans have been the best team in football extending back to early 2011 before QB Matt Schaub went down - and with him healthy and under center they have picked up right where they left off last season, including exacting revenge on the Ravens in impressive fashion this past Sunday.

What is interesting this season is the top 3 defenses in the NFL according to my numbers, Chicago, Houston, San Francisco, currently comprise the top 3 spots in my performance rankings. Who says defense doesn't win championships anymore?

Denver remained strong at #4, as their Strength of Schedule (SOS) has continued to improve and currently sits at #1 in the NFL. Sitting at 3-3 that is not good news for the rest of the AFC, ESPECIALLY considering that according to my numbers, Denver will face the easiest closing schedule going forward as measured by opponent's performance stat ranking, and also according to opponent's record. There is a very solid chance DEN will wind up with the #2 seed in the AFC playoffs, believe it or not.

New England remains in the top 5, followed by the pair of keystone state teams trailing close behind at #6 and #7. Green Bay sits at #8, having faced the second toughest schedule amongst the top ten teams in the ratings.

Next up a trio of NFC East teams check in at #9, #10, #11 - Dallas has played the best thus far when adjusting the numbers for SOS - and their meeting with the New York Giants this week will be a critical game for NFC East superiority as a Cowboys win would give them the important tie-breaker by virtue of a season sweep over the defending champs.

Behind that trio is a pair of surprise NFC teams in Seattle and Minnesota, both of whom have climbed the rankings this season driven by very strong defenses. Nine of the top 13 teams ending with Minnesota are from the NFC, further supporting the point of NFC dominance to this point in the season.

Detroit is the highest rated under .500 team sitting at #15 - a lot of their record is driven by a tough SOS which only trails Denver in strength thus far. Unfortunately for the Lions their schedule does not ease up much like the Broncos does, as going forward it is rated #2 according to opponents win %, and #13 according to opponent's performance stat ranking.

Atlanta, although still undefeated, sits way down at #17 against an average SOS - their offense is playing well but not elite checking in at #8, while their defense is still struggling ranking #23 in the NFL, including #32 vs. the rush. The Falcons have quite a few holes, and their hot start is a bit of a mirage - and likely money making opportunity as the calendar turns to November.

Baltimore sits way down at #23, the lowest they have been ranked at this point in any season since this analysis commenced. The issue with the Ravens is a defense that is being gashed for 23ppg, ranking #27 in my performance stats including #23 vs. the rush. If Flacco cannot lead that offense to significantly more consistency and production than the current 24.9ppg, Baltimore could miss the playoffs for the first time since 2007.

Right behind Baltimore are the New York Jets, who have been ranked between #24 and #29 since Wk2, driven by a subpar offense (ranked #28) and a tough SOS (ranked #3). Of the bottom six teams in the ratings five reside in either the AFC or NFC South, including surprise strugglers Carolina and New Orleans. Probably the most surprising team of the season in a bad way is New Orleans, who has not ranked above #27 in the performance ratings in any week this season. Many expected a step back for the Saints this year, but not many predicted a team that would have 2 wins thru the first 7 weeks of the season.

Next up, here are my projected standings after Week 7. As a reminder, this process involves playing out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team.



AFC East Wins Loss
NE 8.99 7.01
MIA 7.94 8.07
NYJ 7.42 8.58
BUF 6.93 9.08

NFC East Wins Loss
NYG 9.71 6.29
PHI 8.66 7.35
DAL 8.54 7.46
WAS 7.39 8.61


AFC North Wins Loss
BAL 9.15 6.85
PIT 9.05 6.95
CIN 6.60 9.40
CLE 4.72 11.28

NFC North Wins Loss
CHI 11.39 4.61
GB 9.54 6.46
MIN 8.38 7.62
DET 7.34 8.66


AFC South Wins Loss
HOU 12.85 3.15
IND 6.88 9.13
TEN 6.82 9.18
JAC 4.48 11.53

NFC South Wins Loss
ATL 10.70 5.30
TB 6.69 9.31
NO 5.87 10.13
CAR 5.38 10.62


AFC West Wins Loss
DEN 10.25 5.75
SD 7.83 8.17
OAK 6.31 9.69
KC 5.78 10.22

NFC West Wins Loss
SF 11.62 4.38
SEA 8.57 7.43
ARI 7.43 8.57
STL 6.81 9.19




AFC Playoffs:
#1 Houston
#2 Denver
#3 Baltimore vs. #6 Miami
#4 New England vs. #5 Pittsburgh

NFC Playoffs:
#1 San Francisco
#2 Chicago
#3 Atlanta vs. #6 Philadelphia
#4 N.Y. Giants vs. #5 Green Bay

I have updated the power rating of 10 teams, 4 up / 6 down, but maintained the balance in the ratings. Following those adjustments, and updating for actual wins and losses in Week 7, here are the teams that have a +/- 1 win move in the latest projections:

UP:
Pittsburgh +1.3
Chicago +1.2
Oakland +1.1
Tennessee +1.1

DOWN:
Cincinnati (1.0)

Interesting tidbit on this week's projected final standings goes is there was only two teams that moved in their projected finish in their division - New Orleans and Carolina flip-flopped spots with the Saints shifting to 3rd in the NFC South, and Carolina projected to finish in last place. The other 30 teams in the NFL all remained in their same spot I projected them to finish in last week's version - not bad, and shows as the season goes in this analysis really is accurate.

In the race for the 1st pick in the 2013 NFL draft Jacksonville remained the favorite, but Cleveland has moved even closer following their jump over Tennessee two weeks prior. Tennessee has picked up a couple of wins since QB Matt Hasselbeck has taken over, and would seem to be out of this mix if he continues playing. This race is Jacksonville's to lose, no question about it. If Jacksonville finished the season at their current rating of 56.3 that would be the worst season of any team since this analysis commenced; currently, the 2011 Colts hold the record for poor play as they rated 58.4 last season.

Last analysis for this week is my power rankings.

Power Rankings - Week 7
Rank Team
1 Houston
2 San Francisco
3 Chicago
4 Denver
5 Green Bay
6 New England
7 Pittsburgh
8 New York Giants
9 Dallas
10 Philadelphia
11 Seattle
12 Washington
13 Detroit
14 Atlanta
15 San Diego
15 New York Jets
17 Minnesota
17 Baltimore
19 Carolina
20 St. Louis
20 Miami
20 Arizona
23 New Orleans
24 Tampa Bay
25 Kansas City
26 Oakland
26 Cincinnati
26 Buffalo
29 Indianapolis
29 Cleveland
31 Tennessee
32 Jacksonville




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-25-12 01:51 AM
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Tech Trends - Week 8

October 24, 2012

Thursday, Oct. 25 - NFL, 8:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

The underdog team is 5-1-1 in Vikings games TY (Minn. 1-3-1 as chalk). Bucs, based on recent trends.

Sunday, Oct. 28 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Rams 5-3 vs. line this season for Jeff Fisher, all as underdog. Conflicting "totals" numbers, Patriots "over" 32-12 last 44, Rams "under" 27-14 since late 2009. Rams, based on recent trends.

Titans 2-5 as chalk since LY. Colts "over" 2-0 on road TY, Titans "over" 2-1 at home. "Over" and slight to Colts, based on "totals" and team trends.

Road team is 6-0 vs. line in Jag games TY (Jags 4-0 vs. points away). Pack "over" 18-7 last 25 since late 2010 and "over" 8-1 last nine at Lambeau. "Over" and Jags, based on extended Pack "totals" and road-in-Jag trends.

Norv 1-3 SU and vs. line last four TY, Brownies 7-3-1 vs. line last 10 on board since late LY. Norv "over" vs. Denver last Monday but "under" 13-7 last 20. Browns and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

Five of six Philly games TY decided by 3 points or fewer. Eagles 1-5 vs. line TY as dog team has covered in every Philly game. Falcons "under" 5-2 last seven since late LY, Eagles "under" 10-4 last 14. "Under" and Falcons, based on "totals" and team trends.

Pete Carroll 5-2 vs. line TY as dog has covered every Seahawks game; Pete 11-1 last 12 as dog and 16-5 last 21 vs. number. Lions 5-13 last 18 on board and 2-6 last 8 against points at Ford Field, and Jim Schwartz "over" 26-14-2 since late 2009. Seahawks, based on recent Pete Carroll trends.

Dolphins 7-1 vs. line last 8 away, Jets surprising 3-0 as chalk TY. Dolphins, based on team trends.

Note that Bears are 9-2 vs. line in Jay Cutler's last eleven starts. Bears also "over" 6-3 last 9 at Soldier Field. Panthers 6-3-1 "over" on road since Cam arrived LY. "Over" and Bears, based on "totals" and team trends.

Skins "over" 10-4 last 14, although Steel "under" last five at Heinz Field. Skins 4-1 as dog TY and 8-3 last 11 in role. Redskins, based on team trends.

Sunday, Oct. 28 - All games to start at 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Huge road series, Oakland 5-0 SU last five and 8-0-1 vs. spread last nine at Arrowhead. Road team is 16-1-1 vs. line in this series since 2003! "Unders" 7-1 last 8 in series too. Raiders and "under," based on series trends.

Cowboys 0-3 SU and vs. line at new Jerry Jones Stadium against G-Men. Coughlin 7-3 vs. line last 10 against Dallas although G-Men did lose opener vs. Jerry Jones TY. Giants have covered last 8 as visitor. Dallas 2-9 vs. line last 11 as host and "under" 15-6 last 22 since late in 2010 season, although "over" last three at home vs. Giants. Giants, based on series trends.

Sunday, Oct. 28 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Denver "over" 31-14 since late in 2009 season, Saints "over" 16-8 last 24 since late 2010. "Over," based on "totals" trends.

Monday, Oct. 29 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

SF 6-2 vs. line last eight meetings but note Harbaugh just 2-4 vs. spread last six on road and one of those was a loss at Glendale late LY. Whisenhunt has 6 of last 8 as home dog. Cards, based on team trends.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-25-12 01:55 AM
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Vikings, Buccaneers Clash On Thursday Night Football

The Minnesota Vikings may be the surprise team of the entire NFL. They look to keep the ‘good times rolling’ while hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football.

The Don Best Pro Odds have just announced NFL Week 8 and Minnesota is 6½-point favorites with a total of 41½-42. The total is one of the lowest of the week. The NFL Network will have the 8:20 p.m. (ET) telecast from Mall of America Field.

The Vikings were predicted to finish deep in the cellar of the competitive NFC North, which also includes the Packers, Bears and Lions. However, they’ve come out of the gate surprisingly strong at 5-2 straight up (3-3-1 against the spread).

Coach Leslie Frazier’s team has benefitted from some questionable competition. The latest example was yesterday’s 21-14 home win over Arizona as 7-point favorites. John Skelton was the opposing quarterback with Kevin Kolb injured. The Vikings have only played two teams that are currently over .500.

There is also concern at quarterback with Christian Ponder slowing down after a strong start. The second-year product from Florida State threw for just 58 yards on 17 attempts last game. He has six interceptions the last three weeks after none in the first four games.

Fortunately, running back Adrian Peterson is looking nothing like a guy coming off knee surgery. He has 652 yards on the season (4.8 per carry) and the team is ranked seventh in rushing overall (132.3 YPG).

The defense has also played well at 18.7 PPG allowed (ranked sixth). That’s helped the ‘under’ go 5-1 in the last six games, including 3-0 in the last three at home.

The Buccaneers are just 2-4 SU in coach Greg Schiano’s first season after a 35-28 home loss to New Orleans yesterday. They blew a 21-7 second quarter lead as Drew Brees (377 yards, four TDs) picked apart the league’s 31th-ranked pass defense (323 YPG) that is missing suspended cornerback Aqib Talib.

The ‘over’ is now 3-0 in Tampa Bay’s last three games, scoring 29.3 PPG and allowing 23 PPG.

Quarterback Josh Freeman (91.2 rating, ranked 11th) has piled up some good fantasy numbers the last three weeks (1,047 passing yards, seven TDs versus two picks), but needs to make the big play at the right time to get wins.

Freeman is capable of throwing on any defense when he is on, including this week. A balanced running attack would be key as well. Rookie Doug Martin has gone over the 120-yard mark in total rushing and receiving the last two weeks.

Schiano’s defense ranks third in the league against the run (76 YPG). The 3.1 yards per carry allowed is the best and this game will be very interesting if Peterson is contained and Ponder is forced to throw.

Tampa Bay (4-2 ATS) is 2-0 ATS on the road this year with close losses at tough Dallas (16-10) and the New York Giants (41-34). The Bucs are an incredible 11-0-1 ATS in their last 12 road games overall.

These teams met last year with the Buccaneers winning 24-20 as 1-point road ‘dogs. Freeman (243 yards) got the best of his counterpart Donovan McNabb even with Peterson rushing for 120 yards. They also won and covered the last meeting in Florida in 2008, a 19-13 win over 4½-point favorites.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-25-12 01:58 AM
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Buccaneers at Vikings

October 24, 2012


This week’s Thursday night NFL game takes us to Minneapolis where the Vikings will attempt to double their win total from a season ago against former division rival Tampa Bay.

Most books opened Minnesota (5-2 straight up, 3-3-1 against the spread) as a seven-point favorite with a total of 41. As of early Wednesday, the Vikings were favored by 6 ½ with the total moved up to 42. Gamblers can take the Buccaneers on the money line for a plus-325 payout (risk $100 to win $325).

Leslie Frazier’s team is unbeaten in four home games, compiling a 2-1-1 spread record. The Vikings won a 21-14 decision over Arizona last week as seven-point home favorites. The 35 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 38 ½-point total.

Adrian Peterson ran through the Cardinals for 153 yards and one touchdown on 23 carries. Percy Harvin had a three-yard touchdown catch from Christian Ponder, who was intercepted twice and threw for only 58 yards.

Nevertheless, Minnesota got the victory thanks to a stellar pass rush that was all over Arizona quarterback John Skelton for 60 minutes. Brian Robison had three sacks and Jared Allen had two to improve his season total to six.

Despite the doubters that found it unlikely that Peterson could be healthy and productive after tearing his ACL at Washington last December, the Oklahoma product is fourth in the NFL in rushing with 652 yards. The scary thing for the rest of the league is that he’s clearly getting stronger each week. Peterson is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and has three rushing scores, in addition to 22 catches for 135 yards.

Harvin is also enjoying a banner year, producing 1,142 all-purpose yards and four TDs. He had a game-opening kickoff return for a TD that was called back due to a penalty last week.

Ponder, the second-year signal caller out of FSU, has demonstrated steady improvement despite last week’s poor performance. He has connected on 67 percent of his throws for 1,492 yards with a 9/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Vikings are ranked sixth in the NFL in scoring defense, surrendering only 18.7 points per game.

Tampa Bay (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS) is winless in a pair of road assignments, but it took the cash in both defeats at New York (41-34) and at Dallas (16-10). Greg Schiano’s squad is coming off a 35-28 loss at home to New Orleans as a one-point underdog.

On the bright side, third-year quarterback Josh Freeman played his best game of the year, throwing for 420 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. A potential fourth TD pass on the final play of the game appeared to be a game-tying score, but Mike Williams was penalized for illegal touching after going out of bounds before catching a dart from Freeman in the back of the end zone.

Another potential TD pass to Vincent Jackson was thwarted when Saints cornerback Malcolm Jenkins made a great hustle play, running down Jackson from across the field when he appeared poised to complete a 96-yard TD grab. But Jenkins brought him down at the two yard line and then the Saints mounted an incredible goal-line stand.

Jackson, who we should note had missed practice several times due to an injury before the game, still managed to set a team-record with 216 receiving yards on seven catches. Doug Martin rushed 16 times for 85 yards, including a 36-yard TD scamper that put Tampa Bay ahead 14-0 in the first quarter.

For the season, Freeman has completed 55.6 percent of his passes for 1,538 yards with an 11/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. As expected, Jackson has been an outstanding addition from the Chargers, hauling in 27 catches for 586 yards and five TDs.

Martin, the rookie out of Boise St., has 408 rushing yards and two TDs on 100 totes. He can also catch it out of the backfield, as evidenced by 13 receptions for 145 yards.

The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for the Bucs, 1-1 in its two road assignments. The ‘under’ is 5-2 overall for the Vikings, 3-1 in their home games.

Dating back to October of 2001, Tampa Bay has won five in a row over the Vikings both SU and ATS. The ‘over’ has hit in six of the last nine head-to-head meetings.

Kickoff is scheduled for Thursday night at 8:25 p.m. Eastern on The NFL Network.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

As a home favorite on Frazier’s watch, Minnesota has posted a 3-4-1 spread record.

--The Rams, Jets, Seahawks and Texans share the NFL’s best ATS records (5-2).

--The Eagles have been the worst team for their backers, limping to a 1-4-1 spread record.

--The ‘over’ is an NFL-best 5-1 in New Orleans games.

--The ‘under’ is an NFL-best 6-1 for the Seahawks and Cardinals.

--The ‘over’ is on a 5-0 run for the Patriots, while the ‘under’ has cashed in four of the Rams’ last five games. The total is 47 for New England’s trip to St. Louis on Sunday. Jeff Fisher’s team had won outright in all three home games as an underdog before losing 30-20 to Green Bay last week. As of Wednesday, the Pats were favored by seven.

--Green Bay has won three of its last four games thanks to QB Aaron Rodgers, who has a 16/2 TD-INT ratio in those four contests.

--The highest total on the board (by far) in Week 8 is 55 ½ for New Orleans at Denver.

--Houston defensive end J.J. Watt leads the NFL in sacks with 10 ½. Green Bay LB Clay Matthews is second with nine.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-25-12 02:01 AM
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NFL odds: Week 8 opening line report

Going undefeated through the first seven weeks of the NFL schedule isn’t what it used to be.

The Atlanta Falcons, who are 6-0 SU and coming off a bye week, aren’t getting much respect from oddsmakers in Week 7. The Falcons are 1-point road underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles – a 3-3 team that is coming off back-to-back losses before the bye. Some offshores opened Philadelphia as high as -2.5.

Plenty of bettors are pointing to Eagles head coach Andy Reid, who is notorious for strong showings coming off the bye week. He's 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS following a week off while Philadelphia, as a franchise, owns a 19-4 SU and a 16-7 ATS mark coming off the bye since 1990.

“I don’t know what people like about Philly,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service, The Sports Club, told Covers. “I can only go by how they’re playing. And right now, they’re not playing that well.”

Korner says he was the only member of his five-person oddsmaking team that favored Atlanta on the road. He says his service only sent out Philadelphia -1 because they knew what the online books were going to post for Week 7.

“They have some serious chemistry issues,” Korner says about the Eagles. “In football, it is such a violent and emotional game, that chemistry keeps it all together.”

Philadelphia dropped to 3-3 SU (1-4-1 ATS) after a fourth-quarter collapse in a 26-23 overtime loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 6. That cost defensive coordinator Juan Castillo his job – a bullet many insiders suggest Castillo took for Reid, who has come under fire for his choice to stand by QB Michael Vick, despite Vick’s lackluster performances and turnover troubles (eight INTs, six fumbles).

“Vick doesn’t even look like he’s f-ing trying out there,” says Korner. “He seems like he’s going through the motions.”

The Falcons, on the other hand, remained perfect with a 23-20 win over the Oakland Raiders at home in Week 6. Atlanta failed to cover the 9.5-point spread and is just 1-2 ATS in its past three outings, sitting at 4-2 ATS on the year.

“What’s not to like about Atlanta?” asks Korner.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-1, 47.5)

Following a Week 1 loss to the Cowboys, the Giants have slowly built momentum and enter Week 7 at 5-2 SU off a tough win over the Washington Redskins this past weekend. However, oddsmakers have tabbed Dallas as a 1-point home favorite for this NFC East grudge match.

“The Giants are a big-game team and this is a revenge situation for them,” says Korner, who was the only member of his oddsmaking team to favor New York. “I sat there for about 60 seconds in silence before I put out what I wanted. This game is basically a pick’em. At one, you’re basically picking the winner.”

Korner says both sides have a loyal following so it may be hard to anticipate the late action. That massive fan base, along with the 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff will make this game the most-bet contest on the board this coming Sunday.

“All that early money is going to funnel right into this game,” says Korner. “It will be the biggest game and will be the deciding game for books. It will have more money on it than the New Orleans-Denver Sunday night game.”

New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos (-6.5, 54.5)

Both teams look like they’ve got their grooves back heading into this Sunday night showdown of elite quarterbacks.

Drew Brees and the Saints are putting the pieces back together following back-to-back wins while Peyton Manning and the Broncos had the week off after their thrilling comeback win over the San Diego Chargers in Week 6.

Offshore books opened Denver a near-touchdown favorite, however, The Sports Club sent out a suggested spread of Broncos -3.5.

Korner says there are two ways of looking at these numbers: Denver is good and has been very good at home. And, New Orleans is getting hot and is a very dangerous team.

“One more win and they’re right back to where they should be,” Korner says of the Saints. “Denver has the respect at home and offshore books have made that very clear.”

Korner believes the action is going to come in on New Orleans, with plenty of sharp money on the underdog come Sunday night.

“That’s not a bad place to be, especially for these marquee games,” he says of wise guys wagering on the dog. “This is going to be a great game to watch.”

The total for Sunday Night Football opened at 54.5 points, which is par for the course when it comes to the Saints this season. New Orleans has gone 5-1 over/under, regularly topping numbers in the 50's.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-26-12 01:10 AM
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NFL
Dunkel

Week 8

Tampa Bay at Minnesota
The Vikings look to take advantage of a Tampa Bay team that is coming off a 35-28 loss to New Orleans and is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU defeat. Minnesota is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Vikings favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 25

Game 103-104: Tampa Bay at Minnesota (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 127.222; Minnesota 136.599
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 9 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6 1/2); Over


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 28

Game 219-220: New England vs. St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 140.907; St. Louis 131.430
Dunkel Line: New England by 9 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: New England by 6 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2); Under

Game 221-222: Indianapolis at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 122.028; Tennessee 128.474
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 6 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-3 1/2); Under

Game 223-224: Jacksonville at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 123.543; Green Bay 135.092
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 11 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 16; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+16); Over

Game 225-226: San Diego at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 129.684; Cleveland 131.828
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 40
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Under

Game 227-228: Atlanta at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 136.787; Philadelphia 134.160
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+2 1/2); Over

Game 229-230: Seattle at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 133.857; Detroit 130.469
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 3 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+2 1/2); Over

Game 231-232: Miami at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 130.013; NY Jets 134.712
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 4 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 1; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-1); Under

Game 233-234: Carolina at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 129.590; Chicago 135.891
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 6 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Chicago by 9; 43
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+9); Over

Game 235-236: Washington at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 129.055; Pittsburgh 135.576
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-4 1/2); Under

Game 237-238: Oakland at Kansas City (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 126.784; Kansas City 125.210
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+2); Over

Game 239-240: NY Giants at Dallas (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 134.977; Dallas 136.373
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 1 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 1 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+1 1/2); Under

Game 241-242: New Orleans at Denver (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 129.150; Denver 138.804
Dunkel Line: Denver by 9 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Denver by 6; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-6); Over


MONDAY, OCTOBER 29

Game 243-244: San Francisco at Arizona (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 142.350; Arizona 130.083
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 12 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-6 1/2); Under




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-26-12 01:11 AM
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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 8

Thursday, October 25

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (2 - 4) at MINNESOTA (5 - 2) - 10/25/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 28

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NEW ENGLAND (4 - 3) vs. ST LOUIS (3 - 4) - 10/28/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 123-159 ATS (-51.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 96-126 ATS (-42.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 44-67 ATS (-29.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 123-159 ATS (-51.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 64-89 ATS (-33.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 61-88 ATS (-35.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 3) at TENNESSEE (3 - 4) - 10/28/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 27-44 ATS (-21.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 12-29 ATS (-19.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 5) at GREEN BAY (4 - 3) - 10/28/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 145-106 ATS (+28.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (3 - 3) at CLEVELAND (1 - 6) - 10/28/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (6 - 0) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 3) - 10/28/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 148-109 ATS (+28.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
ATLANTA is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (4 - 3) at DETROIT (2 - 4) - 10/28/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 52-79 ATS (-34.9 Units) off a division game since 1992.
SEATTLE is 27-49 ATS (-26.9 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 40-61 ATS (-27.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (3 - 3) at NY JETS (3 - 4) - 10/28/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (1 - 5) at CHICAGO (5 - 1) - 10/28/2012, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (3 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 3) - 10/28/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 89-59 ATS (+24.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 54-33 ATS (+17.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 45-22 ATS (+20.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 61-39 ATS (+18.1 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 35-16 ATS (+17.4 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (2 - 4) at KANSAS CITY (1 - 5) - 10/28/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 35-66 ATS (-37.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 27-62 ATS (-41.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 3-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (5 - 2) at DALLAS (3 - 3) - 10/28/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (2 - 4) at DENVER (3 - 3) - 10/28/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
DENVER is 40-68 ATS (-34.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, October 29

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SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 2) at ARIZONA (4 - 3) - 10/29/2012, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 38-20 ATS (+16.0 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-26-12 01:12 AM
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Short Sheet

Week 8

Thursday, October 25, 2012

(TC) Tampa Bay at Minnesota, 8:25 ET NFL
Tampa Bay: 9-1 Over after playing a game at home
Minnesota: 1-8 ATS when the total is between 35.5 and 42


Sunday, October 28, 2012

New England at St Louis, 1:00 ET
New England: 19-7 ATS in road games off 3 or more overs
St Louis: 0-6 ATS off a home loss

Indianapolis at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 27-13 ATS in road games after allowing 14 points or less
Tennessee: 0-6 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play last game

Jacksonville at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 3-6 ATS in non-conference games
Green Bay: 12-2 ATS off a road win

San Diego at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 12-1 ATS in road games after 2 games with 50 points or more
Cleveland: 3-11 ATS in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest

Atlanta at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 8-1 Under after playing a game at home
Philadelphia: 18-6 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest

Seattle at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 11-3 ATS after the first month of the season
Detroit: 40-61 ATS as a favorite

Miami at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Miami: 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf
NY Jets: 12-25 ATS off a road loss against a division rival

Carolina at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 23-10 ATS after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games
Chicago: 4-13 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +4

Washington at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Washington: 14-2 ATS in road games after gaining 175 or more rush yards
Pittsburgh: 3-11 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins

Oakland at Kansas City, 4:05 ET
Oakland: 35-66 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3
Kansas City: 9-1 ATS off a road loss

NY Giants at Dallas, 4:25 ET
NY Giants: 8-1 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins
Dallas: 1-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins

New Orleans at Denver, 8:30 ET
New Orelans: 9-2 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Denver: 37-66 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3


Monday, October 29, 2012

(TC) San Francisco at Arizona, 8:40 ET ESPN
San Francisco: 4-14 ATS in road games after allowing 6 points or less
Arizona: 26-11 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses

** Week 8 Byes: Baltimore, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Houston **

(TC) = Time Change




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-26-12 01:13 AM
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Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Buccaneers (2-4) @ Vikings (5-2)—Tampa Bay won last five series games, winning last two here, 24-13 in ’05, 24-20 LY, but Minnesota is lot better this year, winning all four home games by average score of 25-14 (2-1 as home fave). Bucs lost but covered both road games, 41-34 (+7.5) at Giants, 16-10 (+7.5) at Dallas; since ’09, they’re 15-9-1 as road underdogs- they’re 3-1 overall as dogs this year. Freeman threw ball for 415 yards last week (9.7 ypa). Minnesota allowed 14 or less points in four of its five wins; Arizona started four of its first six drives in Viking territory last week, but scored only seven points, then Vikes sat on lead in second half (were just 8-17/43 passing). NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-4 vs spread; NFC spread non-divisional road teams are 6-0 vs spread, 4-0 if underdogs. Four of last five Tampa games went over; five of last six Viking games stayed under.

Patriots (4-3) vs Rams (3-4) (@ London)—Last time Belichick/Fisher hooked up was weird ’09 game when Titans went in tank in 59-0 loss when a freak October snowstorm hit Foxboro; New England won last three series games vs Rams, first of which was SB XXXVI, when Pats’ spying tactics helped engineer upset as 12-point dogs. Rams’ three wins are vs two rookie QBs/Kolb; they couldn’t contain Rodgers when it mattered most last week, face another elite QB here. Pats have been outscored 34-6 in 4th quarter of last three games; they’re +11 in turnovers, which masks a defense that is susceptible to long pass (see end of Seattle loss). Patriots are already 0-2 vs NFC West, losing to Cards/Seahawks by total of three points; they went cross-country to Seattle two weeks ago, are crossing pond now- is that a problem? NFC West non-divisional road dogs are 5-2 vs spread; AFC East non-divisional faves are 5-4.

Colts (3-3) @ Titans (3-4)— Winner here is overachieving playoff contender; Titans have three wins by total of 7 points, winning last two games in last minute behind veteran QB Hasselbeck- they’ve converted 18 of 30 3rd down plays last two weeks, but are favored for first time this year- they’re 5-8 vs spread in last 13 games as home favorite. Colts won two of last three games, but are 0-2 vs spread in game following a win; they’re 2-0 when allowing 20 or less points, 1-3 when giving up more- they’re 0-2 on road, losing 41-21 (+9.5) at Chicago, 35-9 (+3.5) at Jets. Indy won six of last seven series games, winning six of last nine visits here, but that was with Manning at QB; they lost here LY without him, and are 3-7 as road dogs since he last played for Colts. League-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-11 vs the spread, 1-1 in AFC South. Four of last five Tennessee games went over the total.

Jaguars (1-5) @ Packers (4-3)—The tree times Jaguars got spanked this year (all at home), they were held to 10 or fewer points; Packers’ last four foes all scored 20+ points. First home game in month for Green Bay squad that won/ covered in third straight road game LW, historically about a 30% play; three of four Packer wins are by 10+ points- they’re 1-2 as home favorites, beating Saints by 1, Bears by 13, losing to 49ers. Road team is 6-0 vs spread in Jax games, with Jags 3-0 as road underdogs, losing pair of OT games and winning in last minute at Indy. Problem is, Gabbert got hurt last week, so unsure if he or Henne will be under center here. Over last 10+ years, Packers are 11-7 vs spread as double digit favorites. Home teams lost three of four series games (tied 2-2), with Jaguars winning 28-25 in only previous visit here, in ’04. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 7-6 vs spread, 3-4 on road. Last four Green Bay games went over the total.

Chargers (3-3) @ Browns (1-6)—San Diego imploded in second half (outscored 52-7) of last two games before bye, now travels east to play opponent they’ve beaten seven of last eight meetings, winning eight of 11 games played here. Bolts won two at Oakland/KC before losing in New Orleans; they’ve covered five of last six tries as road favorites. Four of Browns’ six losses were by 7 or less points; they’re 1-2 at home, with only win this season revenge game vs Bengals, when Cleveland was +3 in turnovers. Since ’08, Browns are 8-10 as a home dog- they’re 4-10-3 vs spread in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points. Chargers won six of last nine post-bye games (4-3 vs spread last 7 as favorite); TE Gates returns to old college stomping grounds (played hoop at Kent State). AFC West teams are 2-3 vs spread as non-divisional favorites; AFC North teams are 4-13 in non-divisional games, 3-5 as underdogs, 1-1 at home.

Falcons (6-0) @ Eagles (3-3)—Unbeaten Atlanta getting points in Ryan’s hometown, where Falcons lost last six visits (last win in ’88); Atlanta beat Iggles 35-31 LY at home, its first series win in last five tries. Home side won 10 of last 12 series games. Reid is unbeaten in regular season after bye, but Atlanta won three in row and six of last eight after bye, too. Falcons haven’t played great schedule; they’re +8 in turnovers (even in last three games) and were shaky winners over Carolina/Oakland in last two home games, but 6-0 is 6-0. Eagles have 17 turnovers (-9) in six games; they beat Giants in only game without a miscue. Philly lost last two games by total of 5 points; only one of their six games was won by more than a FG; Eagles are NFC East non-divisional favorites are 3-8 vs spread, 2-4 at home; NFC South non-divisional road teams are 6-0 vs spread. Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under the total.

Seahawks (4-3) @ Lions (2-4)— Seattle returns to site of only Super Bowl appearance with four extra days of prep; they played last Thursday, Lions played Monday. Five teams are playing rookie QB’s this year, Seattle being one; those teams are 1-7 vs spread when favored, 17-8 when underdog. Seahawks won last three series games, are 7-4 vs Lions, splitting four games played here; they’re 1-3 on road, with none of four games decided by more than six points, and all four staying under total. Underdogs are 7-0 vs spread in Seahawk games, with Hawks 5-0 as dog; their losses are by 4-6-7 points. Detroit is 0-3 as favorite this year, losing two of three SU they’re -5 in turnovers, but was +2 in only win, in OT at Philly. Lions have yet to lead at halftime this season, having led in 2nd-3rd-4th quarters for a combined total of 22 seconds all season long. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 9-3 vs spread, 5-2 on road. NFC North home favorites are 4-4.

Dolphins (3-3) @ Jets (3-4)—Gang Green was outrushed 185-88 (mostly before Bush was hurt), but survived 23-20 OT win at Miami in first meeting in Week 3, 7th win for visitor in last 10 series games. Jets had 13-yard edge in field position that day. Miami won three of last four visits here; their last four games overall were all decided by 4 or less points, with Fish losing pair of OT games. Jets lost three of last four games, losing tough OT games last week in Foxboro; they’re 9-8 as home favorite under Ryan, 2-0 this year. Jets covered 15 of last 23 games when spread was 3 or less points; Miami is 3-5-1 in last nine such games- Dolphins lost six of last seven post-bye games, if they won last game before the bye, but covered eight of last 10 as divisional road dog; since 2008, Miami is 22-8-1 overall when a road underdog. Former Miami coach Sparano is Jets’ OC; Gang Green is 1-4 when their turnover ratio is worse than +3.

Panthers (1-5) @ Bears (5-1)—Chicago is playing great defense, allowing total of 34 points in last four games (3 TDs on last 44 drives), but this is trap game, after Monday night win over division rival. Carolina is 1-5, soph QB Newton is discouraged, but only one of their five losses was by more than 6 points, so hardly hopeless situation; Bears lead this series 4-3, winning last two meetings 23-6/34-29 (Panthers covered in last 1:00). Carolina lost three of four visits here, with only win in ’05 playoff game. Panthers are 0-2 on road, losing 16-10 (-2.5) at Tampa, 30-28 (+7) at Atlanta, best game they’ve played this year- they’re 4-3-1 as road dog under Rivera, but they’ve converted only 8 of 32 3rd down plays in last three games. Four of Bears’ five wins are by 16+ points; they already have 21 takeaways, and ridiculously good +13 turnover ratio, but since ’07, they’re just 11-16-1 vs spread as home favorites, 2-1 this year. Three of last four Carolina games stayed under the total.

Redskins (3-4) @ Steelers (3-3)—Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in Washington games this year, 4-0 on road; Redskins are 2-2 on foreign soil, 3-0 as road underdogs, with losses by total of 7 points (@Rams/Giants). Since 2009, Skins are 15-7-1 vs spread as road dogs. None of their four losses this year are by more than seven points. Hard to believe its Halloween and this is just third home game for Pitt (beat Jets 27-10, -6/Eagles 16-14, -3.5); Steelers are 9-7 in last 16 games as home favorite, and won last four games with Redskins, last three by combined score of 63-16- they seemed to rediscover running game in second half at Cincinnati last week, running ball for 167 yards, just their second game over 75 this season. Looked like Redskins had pulled upset at Swamp last week when they scored to take 23-20 lead in last 1:30, but then defense allowed 77-yard TD pass on next play, and they had a tough loss instead. Six of seven Washington games went over total.

Raiders (2-4) @ Chiefs (1-5)—Two ancient rivals both desperate for win; Quinn (3-10 career record as starter) gets nod at QB for KC squad playing first game in front of home fans since some of them cheered after previous starting QB Cassel was injured, prompting angry reaction from a KC lineman. Chiefs are 1-5, with four losses by 16+ points, and no offensive TDs in last two games (22 drives). Raiders are 0-3 on road, allowing 31.7 ppg; both their wins are by FG at home. Home side lost 10 of last 11 series games; Raiders won six of last nine, including last five visits here, with three of five wins by exactly three points. Since 2007, Chiefs are hideous 9-17-1 vs spread in games where spread was 3 or less points; over last 10+ years, Raiders are terrible 16-32-2 vs spread in such games, though they were 5-1-1 LY (0-3 this year). Chiefs lost four of last five post-bye games. Four of six Oakland games went over the total.

Giants (5-2) @ Cowboys (3-3)—Home team lost five of last seven series games, with Giants winning shootouts (33-31/41-35/37-34) in last three visits here; Dallas upset world champs 24-17 (+3.5) in season opener, outrushing them 143-82, surviving 13 penalties for 86 yards. Giants covered all three games when they ran ball for 125 yards, winning by 29-14-23 points; underdogs covered those other four games, with Giants 2-2 SU in them. Dallas has to make them one-dimensional, because they can’t outscore Eli’s offense, having scored 19 or fewer points in four of last five games (8 TDs on last 51 drives). You’re reading ***************.com. Cowboys held five of six foes to 112 or less rushing yards, but in two home games, Cowboys have run ball total of 37 times for only 79 yards. Dallas is 5-12-1 vs spread in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less points; Giants are 5-1-1 in their last seven. Cowboys’ coaches just seem out of sync, with stuff as simple as subbing players in and out.

Saints (2-4) @ Broncos (3-3)—Peyton Manning vs his dad’s old team, in Joe Vitt’s first game back as interim coach; keep in mind Saints blasted Peyton-less Colts 62-7 LY; this is first time Peyton plays against Saints since he lost Super Bowl to them three years ago, so lot of subplots. Fox won four in row, six of last seven post-bye games; Broncos themselves covered 17 of last 21 post-bye tilts. If Bucs passed for 415 yards vs Saint defense last week, what will Manning put in thin air? Denver scored 31-37-35 points in its wins, 21-25-21 in losses; Saints are allowing average of 30.3 ppg, with five of their six games going over total. That said, NO won last two games after 0-2 start, scoring 31-35 points (8 TDs on 21 drives); average total in its three road games is an even 60. Only teams to beat Denver are 6-1 Texans/6-0 Falcons/4-3 Patriots. Broncos are 2-0 as home favorite this year, after going 5-24-2 as home favorite from 2006-11.

49ers (5-2) @ Cardinals (4-3)—Arizona lost last three games after 4-0 start, scoring 11 ppg during skid (3 TD’s on 38 drives); they’ve lost five of last six games vs 49ers, three of last five here. 49ers are +2 in turnovers after being +28 LY; they’ve run ball for average of 176.3 yards game, part of why they’ve had field position edge in five of seven games, but they have allowed 135+ rushing yards three of last five week. Redbirds are getting poor QB play from banged-up duo; they started four of six first half drives in Minnesota territory last week, scored only 7 points, which is why they lost a game where they had 14-yard edge in field position- that does not happen much. Divisional home underdogs are 6-6 vs spread this year, but 3-0 in NFC West. Six of seven Cardinal games, five of last six 49er games stayed under the total. This is like a mini-bye for 49ers, who haven’t played in 11 days and are 15-6 vs spread in game before their last 21 real byes.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-26-12 01:15 AM
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NFL

Week 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Thursday, October 25

8:20 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay


Sunday, October 28

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games
Green Bay is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games at home

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. DETROIT
Seattle is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Indianapolis is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Tennessee is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 9 games when playing Atlanta

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Miami's last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Miami's last 21 games
NY Jets are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games when playing at home against Miami
NY Jets are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games at home

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Chicago is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Carolina
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. ST. LOUIS
New England is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 8-15-1 ATS in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Washington
Pittsburgh is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. CLEVELAND
San Diego is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Diego
Cleveland is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games

4:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Oakland is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

4:15 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games on the road
NY Giants are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games on the road
Dallas is 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games when playing NY Giants
Dallas is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games

8:20 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. DENVER
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Denver
Denver is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans


Monday, October 29

8:30 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games when playing at home against San Francisco




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-26-12 01:16 AM
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NFL

Week 8

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Thursday Night Football: Buccaneers at Vikings
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 42.5)

The Minnesota Vikings remain one of the league's biggest early surprises, but they had to survive an inept performance on offense to continue their drive for an NFC North crown. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, meanwhile, had nothing to show for their best offensive output of the season. Minnesota will look to double last season's win total when they host the Buccaneers on Thursday night.

The Vikings remained perfect at home with an ugly 21-7 victory over the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday while the Buccaneers blew a 14-point lead against the New Orleans Saints to absorb their fourth loss in the last five games. Tampa Bay won at Minnesota in Week 2 last season before unraveling and finishing the season on a 10-game losing streak.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The Vikings opened as big as touchdown favorites but have been bet down to -6.5. The total has also moved from 41.5 to 42.5.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS): Tampa Bay rolled up a season-best 513 yards of total offense and Josh Freeman threw for a career-high 420 yards, but the Bucs were unable to hold off Drew Brees and the Saints after building a 21-7 lead. Vincent Jackson hauled in seven catches for 216 yards and one of Freeman's three TD passes, but Tampa Bay failed to scored on a first-and-goal at the 1-yard line and had two apparent tying touchdowns in the final five seconds negated by a penalty and a receiver landing out of bounds. Rookie running back Doug Martin had his highest output since the season opener with 85 yards and a TD on 16 carries.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (5-2 SU, 3-3-1 ATS): Minnesota's second-half performance against Arizona was an eyesore, but the one positive was the re-emergence of star running back Adrian Peterson. He powered his way to a season-high 153 yards on 23 carries and scored his first touchdown since Week 1. The passing game was another story, particularly in the second half. Christian Ponder threw for only 58 yards - four in the second half - with one TD and two interceptions. Minnesota managed only 12 first downs and 209 total yards, punting on its first five possessions of the second half and going three-and-out four straight times. DE Jared Allen had two of the Vikings' seven sacks.

TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Home team is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Buccaneers are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.
* Vikings are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Buccaneers have won the last five meetings between the teams.

2. Peterson is tied with Robert Smith (29) for the most 100-yard games in franchise history.

3. Buccaneers S Ronde Barber had his third interception of the season and 46th of his career last week




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-26-12 01:18 AM
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CNOTES
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Posts: 10543

NFL

Week 8

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Tale of the tape: Buccaneers at Vikings
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The Bucs roll into Minnesota for what promises to be a physical affair against the Vikings in this week's installment of Thursday Night Football. Take a look at how this matchup breaks down in all three facets of the game with our tale of the tape:

Offense

The Bucs offense has exploded over the last two weeks, putting up a combined 66 points against the Chiefs and Saints. Of course, both of those performances came at home and at the expense of two struggling defenses. They'll face a much stiffer test on the road against a stout Vikings defense Thursday night. Bucs QB Josh Freeman has thrown six touchdown passes over the last two games while rookie RB Doug Martin found the end zone for only the second time this season against New Orleans last week. Offseason acquisition Vincent Jackson has been the star of the offense, hauling in four touchdown catches over the last three weeks.

Minnesota's offense relied heavily on RB Adrian Peterson last Sunday, as QB Christian Ponder was only able to complete 47 percent of his passes for a miserable 58 yards. The sophomore pivot has now thrown exactly two interceptions in three consecutive games. To make matters worse, he's nursing a sore knee heading into this contest. But can an already conservative offense really be scaled back all that much? It won't be a surprise if Peterson remains the focal point of the offense Thursday, as the issues in the Vikes’ passing game aren't likely to be fixed in a short week.

Edge: Tampa Bay


Defense

Tampa Bay has alternated good and bad performances on the defensive side of the football this season. So, after giving up 35 points in a losing effort last Sunday, one would assume it would bring its “A” game Thursday night. The Bucs are giving up an ugly 6.3 yards per play on the season and have really struggled against the pass, allowing nearly 13 yards per completion. Corner Aqib Talib's suspension has left a gaping hole in the secondary and his absence was certainly felt last Sunday, as the Bucs were ripped for 377 yards and four touchdowns against Drew Brees and the Saints. They'll need their pass rush to relieve the pressure on the secondary this week.

The strength of the Vikings defense remains up front, as they come into this game averaging over three sacks per contest. Their explosive pass rush has helped limit opposing offenses to a weak 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Last Sunday, the Vikes forced a pair of key turnovers against the Cardinals, including an interception they took to the house - ultimately proving to be the difference in the 21-14 victory. They're giving up just a shade over 14 points per game at the Metrodome, where they're a perfect 3-0 SU on the season.

Edge: Minnesota


Special teams

Tampa Bay's return game has struggled for the most part, averaging only 6.5 yards per punt return and 20.1 yards on kickoffs. Without a proven return man (Arrelious Benn and Roscoe Parrish have been sharing the duties), that shouldn't come as a surprise. The Bucs have been terrific at holding opposing returners in check, giving up just slightly north of 21 yards per kickoff return, but will face a big challenge in the form of the electric Percy Harvin Thursday. Tampa Bay kicker Connor Barth has been steady since entering the league and has made good on 10 of his 12 field goal attempts so far this season.

The Vikings are a load to handle on special teams with speedsters Percy Harvin and Marcus Sherels capable of taking it to the house every time they touch the football. They're currently gaining well above the league average at 12.3 yards per punt return and 29.9 yards per kickoff return. On the flip side, they've had a tough time defending kickoffs in particular, allowing 31.7 yards per return. Rookie kicker Blair Walsh has been terrific for the Vikes, converting 16 of 17 field goal attempts. They also boast a quality, veteran punter in Chris Kluwe.

Edge: Minnesota


Word on the street

"Again, we're sitting here, what are we, 2-4 now? And we're saying this old song and dance. That's the way it is. Until we get it changed, until we find a way to change it, close but no cigar." - Bucs head coach Greg Schiano on the frustration of dropping another close game against the Saints last Sunday.

"That's what we want to pride ourselves on, being the toughest team, the most physical team. We were able to come out today and do that, we just have to keep doing that going forward." - Vikings DE Brian Robison speaking about the seven sacks they recorded against the Cardinals last Sunday.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-26-12 01:19 AM
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NFL

Thursday, October 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 8:20 PM ET Tampa Bay +5.5 500

Minnesota - Under 43 500




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-26-12 01:23 AM
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Falcons In Philadelphia To Face Struggling Eagles

The storm signals have been building in Philadelphia since the offseason. All it took was another loss in gut-wrenching fashion in the Eagles’ most-recent game against the Lions for the first cloudburst of what could be more to come in the Delaware Valley.

Meanwhile, Atlanta continues to bop along in undefeated fashion. Conversations among patrons over chili and slaw dogs at the downtown location of The Varsity (one of our favorite eateries) has even swung from the Bulldogs and Yellow Jackets on the college side to the NFL as “Falcons Mania” grips the Showcase City of the South.

So, it’s a tale of two teams and franchises apparently headed in opposite directions when they clash on Sunday at Lincoln Financial Field.

A quick check of the Don Best NFL odds screen notes that despite positions in the standings, host Philadelphia (3-3 straight up, 1-5 vs. the line) is priced as a 2½-point favorite over Atlanta (6-0 straight up, 4-2 against the number) at the majority of Las Vegas sports books, while the total is at 45 shaded to the ‘under’ (with a handful of stray 45½s) at most Nevada wagering outlets.

Kickoff time on Sunday at the Linc will be at 1:00 p.m. (ET), with big FOX providing the TV coverage. Dick Stockton and John Lynch will provide the commentary.

Despite Atlanta’s undefeated mark, more eyes are probably going to be on the Eagles this week as both sides get back to action after their respective “byes” a week ago. While it was an uneventful week for the Falcons, it was anything but in Philadelphia...for reasons we noted in our summer NFC previews.

At the time, we and many other suspected Eagles head coach Andy Reid was operating under the gun this season, and for good reason after last year’s 8-8 disappointment. Owner Jeffrey Lurie had even put Reid on notice that his job depended upon performance this season. To show he meant business, Lurie pushed aside team president Joe Banner (who landed with the Browns), a longtime confidante of Reid’s.

Most observers, us included, also suspected that second-year defensive coordinator Juan Castillo was going to be on a very short leash this fall. After all, the “D” mostly underachieved a year ago. And the stop unit was the focus in the offseason, especially during the draft when the Eagles went "D" with their first three picks. NFC East insiders also noted that Reid made inquiries regarding the availability of former Rams HC and Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo about assuming control of the Bird stop unit before committing to Castillo for another campaign.

But Reid put in place a backup plan involving new DB coach Todd Bowles, who held the same post at Miami a year ago and was even the Dolphins' interim head coach last December after Tony Sparano was jettisoned with a few games to go in the season. With so much on the line for all parties this fall, some sources believe another slow start by the defense might force Reid to move Bowles into the coordinator role and demote Castillo. Which is exactly what happened after the October 14 loss to the Lions, when Philly blew a late 23-13 lead and ended up a 26-23 loser in overtime.

Of particular disappointment was the lack of impact made by the Eagles’ defensive front, which put DL coach Jim Washburn’s patented “wide nine” looks to good use last fall when registering 50 sacks. But opposing attacks made adjustments to Philly’s defensive front this season, and the Eagles had failed to generate a consistent pass rush, not registering any sacks over the past three games. The “bye” week thus provided Reid the perfect opportunity to make a staff change, relieving Castillo of duties and promoting Bowles.

Now, phone lines on 610 WIP are buzzing about who is next on the chopping block. Quarterback Michael Vick is a popular choice among the Eagle fanatics, with Reid himself close behind.

Indeed, since Reid appears unwilling to sit back and watch the team underachieve, it is fair to assume that Vick’s job is on the line as well, especially since he has been so mistake-prone (8 picks and 10 fumbles, losing five of the latter) in the first six games. Sources say Vick could be one more shaky start away from getting the hook, with Reid said to be close to giving Arizona rookie Nick Foles (who impressed in preseason) the reins to the struggling offense.

The Eagles are also defining low-variance this season, with five of their six games decided by three points or fewer. The combined win margin in Philly’s three wins is an astonishing four points.

Meanwhile, Mike Smith’s Atlanta is having fewer concerns, although he hopes last week’s “bye” can help the Falcons correct some flaws that have forced them to sweat out recent wins over the Panthers, Redskins and Raiders. Mostly, those issues involve a running game that has been in a lurch in recent weeks, as Atlanta is gaining only 3.7 yards per carry. Moreover, the defense is allowing 5.2 yards per rush, hardly the sort of numbers that figure to keep the Falcons unbeaten as the 2012 campaign enters its second half.

For the time being, however, the excellence of QB Matt Ryan, and his ability to pull wins out of the fire in the late-going – game-saving drives to last-second Matt Bryant field goals saved the recent wins over Carolina and Oakland – has kept Atlanta unblemished. The variety of top-flight receiving targets, especially with vet TE Tony Gonzalez (team-best 43 catches) showing no signs of slowing down, and wideouts Roddy White and Julio Jones stretch enemy secondaries, figures to test the Eagle pass defense.

Bowles is going to have to worry about how CB Nnamdi Asomugha is going to deal with Jones, his expected assignment, after several blown assignments have resulted in big plays against the Philly defense thus far.

Technically, it is no surprise that the underdog team has covered in each of the first six games for the low-variance Eagles; Philly, favored in all but its 16-14 loss at Pittsburgh on October 7, is 1-5 vs. the line. Totals trends are also shading to the ‘under’ for both (Falcons ‘under’ 5-2 their last seven since late 2011, Eagles ‘under’ 10-4 last 14 since mid 2011).

Atlanta also won an early-season battle a year ago at the Georgia Dome by a 35-31 count, before each team began its respective ‘under’ trending.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-28-12 03:40 AM
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Dallas Cowboys & New York Giants Meet Again

Fierce NFC East rivals, the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, play their second and final regular season meeting Sunday in Big D.

The Don Best Pro Odds opened the Cowboys as 1½-point home favorites, but it was quickly bet around and they’re now 1½-2 point ‘dogs. The total is 47½-points and FOX will have this ratings buster starting at 4:25 p.m. (ET).

These teams opened the NFL season on Wednesday, September 5. Dallas was a 3½-point ‘dog at the defending champs, but won 24-17 after winning the total yardage battle 433-269. Quarterback Tony Romo (307 yards, three TDs) outplayed his counterpart Eli Manning (213 yards).

The 41 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 45½-point total. The ‘under’ is 2-0 in the last two meetings between the teams after the ‘over’ was 5-0 in the previous five.

The Cowboys (3-3 straight up, 3-3 against the spread) may have peaked in that Giants game as not a lot has gone right since. They did pull out a victory at struggling Carolina last week, 19-14 as 1-point favorites, but the offense has trouble putting up points (18.8 PPG, tied-for-24th) despite being 10th in total yards (374.8 YPG).

The running game is a concern Sunday with DeMarco Murray (foot) doubtful after missing last game. Felix Jones was the main guy, but rushed for just 44 yards on 15 carries and is questionable with a knee injury.

That puts a lot of pressure on Romo. He didn’t throw an interception for the first time this season last game, but it’s hard to imagine that happening again versus the imposing Giants pass rush.

Dallas’ defense ranks fourth in total yards allowed (292.3 YPG), but just got devastating news with leading tackler Sean Lee (toe) out for the season. He has 58 tackles with the next closest at 32, and the Giants will try to run the ball at replacement Dan Connor.

Note the Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last five at home (0-2 ATS this year). They beat Tampa Bay (16-10 as 9-point favorites) before getting embarrassed by Chicago (34-18 loss) on MNF. Romo had five picks in that Bears game, which is the last time the home crowd saw him.

The Giants (5-2 SU, 3-3-1 ATS) have won five of six since the Dallas opener, although they haven’t always been pretty. Last week’s home game against Washington is the perfect example. The G-Men were outgained 248-64 on the ground with the scrambling of Robert Griffin III a big factor, but Manning threw a 77-yard TD pass to Victor Cruz with under 1:30 remaining.

The sterling 27-23 victory failed to cover the 6½-point spread and also went just ‘under’ the 51½-point total. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the Giants last five games, 3-0 away this year.

Manning can throw on any team and has been better on the road (94.5 rating). Receiver Hakeem Nicks keeps rounding into form after injuries and could have a breakout game. That will take pressure off the sensational Cruz.

Ahmad Bradshaw has been dealing with a foot issue and was held to 43 yards last week after an average of 158 the prior two. As mentioned above, the G-Men will really test the Dallas run ‘D’ and Bradshaw is a big part of that.

New York has been a great road team since last December, going 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS (including the Super Bowl). The numbers this year are 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS with the outright loss at Philadelphia (19-17) on September 30.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-28-12 03:42 AM
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