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CNOTES
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Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NBA
Short Sheet

Tuesday, April 16

Toronto at Atlanta, 7:35 ET
Toronto: 60-45 ATS after playing a game as an underdog
Atlanta: 5-17 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins

Indiana at Boston, 8:05 ET TNT
Indiana: 15-5 ATS off a road loss
Boston: 5-16 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more

Portland at LA Clippers, 10:35 ET TNT
Portland: 14-27 ATS after one or more consecutive overs
LA Clippers: 24-12 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-16-13 11:39 PM
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CNOTES
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Tuesday, April 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Toronto - 8:00 PM ET Atlanta -6 500
Atlanta - Under 196.5 500

Portland - 10:30 PM ET L.A. Clippers -15 500
L.A. Clippers - Under 204 500




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-16-13 11:58 PM
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CNOTES
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NBA
Dunkel

Utah at Memphis
The Grizzlies look to follow up their 103-97 win over Dallas on Monday and build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Memphis is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Grizzlies favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-5). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 17

Game 501-502: Philadelphia at Indiana (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 114.752; Indiana 117.851
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 3; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 5 1/2; 186
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+5 1/2); Over

Game 503-504: Orlando at Miami (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 107.785; Miami 126.530
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 18 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 505-506: Boston at Toronto (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 117.623; Toronto 114.044
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 3 1/2; 183
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 507-508: Washington at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 112.814; Chicago 119.349
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 6 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 8 1/2; 186
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+8 1/2); Over

Game 509-510: Milwaukee at Oklahoma City (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 116.616; Oklahoma City 130.970
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 14 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 511-512: Atlanta at New York (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 115.021; New York 125.846
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 11; 188
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 513-514: Detroit at Brooklyn (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 115.118; Brooklyn 123.340
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 8; 187
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 515-516: Cleveland at Charlotte (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 111.801; Charlotte 110.386
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 3; 203
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+3); Over

Game 517-518: New Orleans at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 114.912; Dallas 118.734
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 4; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 7 1/2; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+7 1/2); Over

Game 519-520: Minnesota at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 114.182; San Antonio 122.424
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 8; 190
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 521-522: Utah at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 120.034; Memphis 127.225
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 7; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 5; 180
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-5); Over

Game 523-524: Phoenix at Denver (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 114.164; Denver 127.450
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 13; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 11 1/2; 212 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-11 1/2); Under

Game 525-526: LA Clippers at Sacramento (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 123.811; Sacramento 115.301
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 8 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 6 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-6 1/2); Under

Game 527-528: Golden State at Portland (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 120.226; Portland 115.462
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 5; 216
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 529-530: Houston at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 119.232; LA Lakers 124.230
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5; 197
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 2 1/2; 203
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-2 1/2); Under
Reply With Quote




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-17-13 03:41 PM
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CNOTES
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Hoop Trends - Wednesday

April 17, 2013

ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Heat are 10-0 ATS (10.3 ppg) since April 08, 2012 at home when facing a team they beat in their previous two matchups of the season.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Bobcats are 11-0 OU (10.3 ppg) since February 11, 2009 with at least one day of rest after a double digit win in which they shot at least 50% from the field.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Trailblazers are 12-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since February 01, 2011 at home after losing the previous matchup on the road in which Nicolas Batum shot worse than 33% from the field.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Warriors are 11-0 OU (13.0 ppg) since February 14, 2003 on the road with at most one day of rest after a win in which they committed at least twenty turnovers.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Spurs are 0-8-1 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since January 10, 2012 after a loss on the road in which Daniel Green shot worse than 33% from the field.

-- The Bucks are 7-0 OU (13.4 ppg) since April 13, 2012 after a loss in which Monta Ellis scored at least 30 points.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-17-13 11:17 PM
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CNOTES
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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

04/16/13 10-_5-_1 66.67% +_2590 Detail
04/15/13 10-_4-_0 71.43% +_3245 Detail
04/14/13 3-_3-_0 50.00% -_15 Detail
04/13/13 10-_11-_1 47.62% -_750 Detail
04/11/13 8-_8-_2 50.00% +_65 Detail
04/10/13 7-_2-_1 77.78% +_1940 Detail
04/09/13 8-_10-_0 44.44% -_1570 Detail
04/08/13 6-_4-_0 60.00% +_760 Detail
04/07/13 9-_6-_1 60.00% +_915 Detail
04/06/13 9-_8-_1 52.94% +_350 Detail
04/05/13 8-_4-_0 66.67% +_2270 Detail
04/04/13 11-_9-_0 55.00% +_975 Detail
04/03/13 7-_3-_0 70.00% +_1975 Detail
04/02/13 8-_5-_1 61.54% +_940 Detail
04/01/13 7-_8-_3 46.67% -_685 Detail

Totals 121-_90-_11 57.35% +13005


Wednesday, April 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Montreal - 7:00 PM ET Montreal +138 500 POD # 2
Pittsburgh - Over 5.5 500

Buffalo - 7:30 PM ET Buffalo +207 500 POD # 3
Boston - Under 5 500

Detroit - 9:30 PM ET Detroit -155 500
Calgary - Over 5.5 500

Columbus -10:00 PM ET Columbus +135 500 POD # 1
Anaheim - Over 5 500




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-17-13 11:23 PM
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CNOTES
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Wednesday, April 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 8:00 PM ET Toronto -5.5 500 POD # 4
Toronto - Under 194 500

Detroit - 8:00 PM ET Detroit +5.5 500 POD # 5
Brooklyn - Under 196 500

Atlanta - 8:00 PM ET New York -4.5 500 POD # 2
New York - Over 193.5 500

Cleveland - 8:00 PM ET Cleveland +2.5 500
Charlotte - Under 202 500

Orlando - 8:00 PM ET Miami -5.5 500 POD # 6
Miami - Over 191.5 500

Philadelphia - 8:00 PM ET Indiana -3 500
Indiana - Under 186.5 500

Washington - 8:00 PM ET Washington +8.5 500 POD # 7
Chicago - Under 186.5 500

Utah - 8:00 PM ET Utah +4.5 500
Memphis - Under 178.5 500

New Orleans - 8:00 PM ET Dallas -8 500
Dallas - Under 198.5 500

Minnesota - 8:00 PM ET Minnesota +9 500 POD # 8
San Antonio - Under 199.5 500

Milwaukee - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma City -4 500 POD # 3
Oklahoma City - Under 203 500

Phoenix - 8:00 PM ET Denver -12.5 500
Denver - Under 211 500

Houston - 10:30 PM ET Houston +2.5 500 POD # 1
L.A. Lakers - Under 202.5 500

L.A. Clippers - 10:30 PM ET Sacramento +6.5 500
Sacramento - Over 205.5 500

Golden State - 10:30 PM ET Golden State -8.5 500
Portland - Under 207 500




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-17-13 11:31 PM
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CNOTES
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NBA playoff odds: Lakers big dogs vs. Spurs


The Game 1 lines for the NBA playoffs have been released at offshore books and in Las Vegas.

Here are the opening lines as tweeted by Teddy Covers:

Saturday:
Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks (-7, 192.5)

Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets (-8, 210)

Chicago Bulls vs. Brooklyn Nets (-4.5, 182.5)

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Los Angeles Clippers (-5, 179)

Sunday:
Atlanta Hawks vs. Indiana Pacers (-6.5, 185)

Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs (-8.5, 192)

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat (-13, 199)

Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-10, 212.5)

The series prices have also been released. Here are the odds from online book CarbonSports.ag:

Eastern Conference:

(8) Milwaukee Bucks 38-44 vs. (1) Miami Heat 66-16 (+4000, -6000)

(7) Boston Celtics 41-40 vs. (2) New York Knicks 54-28 (+290, -360)

(6) Atlanta Hawks 44-38 vs. (3) Indiana Pacers 49-32 (+400, -600)

(5) Chicago Bulls 45-37 vs. (4) Brooklyn Nets 49-33 (+145, -165)

Western Conference:

(8) Houston Rockets 45-37 vs. (1) Oklahoma City Thunder 60-22 (+1200, -2000)

(7) Los Angeles Lakers 45-37 vs. (2) San Antonio Spurs 58-24 (+1000, -1600)

(6) Golden State Warriors 47-35 vs. (3) Denver Nuggets 57-25 (+500, -700)

(5) Memphis Grizzlies 56-26 vs. (4) Los Angeles Clippers 56-26 (+155, -175)




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-18-13 09:12 PM
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CNOTES
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Momemtum gives these three NBA teams added playoff value

Momentum is worth its weight in gold come playoff time and often the hottest team – not the best team – makes a run at the title. With the NBA playoffs kicking off this weekend, we look at three teams that are peaking at the perfect time and providing added value in the NBA futures market.

Memphis Grizzlies (+2,500)

The Grizzlies were the sharp darling before the season started and haven’t strayed too far from their opening NBA title odds. Memphis is a winner in nine of its last 11 games, posting a 7-3-1 ATS mark in that span. The Grizzlies own the top-ranked defense in the league and unlike most teams at this time of the year, they are relatively healthy.

Brooklyn Nets (+5,000)

Jay-Z may not want to rush out and sell all his stock in the Nets just yet. Brooklyn is picking up speed heading into the postseason and will have home court in the opening round as the No. 4 seed in the East. The Nets have won seven of their last nine games (5-4 ATS) including key matchups with Indiana and Boston, thanks in part to the play of Deron Williams (averaging almost 25 points this month). The Nets opened at 30-1 to win the NBA title and were as big as 100-1 after a slow start to the season.

Los Angeles Clippers (+1,500)

The Clippers strut into playoffs having won seven straight games while boasting a 5-2 ATS count in that stretch. Los Angeles' win versus the Kings Wednesday secured the No. 4 spot in the West and holds down home court for the first round. The Clips, who opened at 15-1, are also healthy with Caron Butler and Chauncey Billups back in the lineup.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-18-13 09:14 PM
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CNOTES
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Lines on NBA Playoffs as of Thursday Noon:

Saturday, April 20

Time Away Line Pick Home Line Pick Amount No Pick

3:00 PM Boston +6.5 New York -6.5
Over 190.5 Under 190.5

5:30 PM Golden State +7.5 Denver-7.5
Over 210 Under 210

8:00 PM Chicago +4.5 Brooklyn -4.5
Over 182.5 Under 182.5

10:30 PM Memphis +5 L.A. Clippers -5
Over 179 Under 179


Sunday, April 21

Time Away Line Pick Home Line Pick Amount No Pick

1:00 PM Atlanta +6.5 Indiana -6.5
Over 185 Under 185

3:30 PM L.A. Lakers +9 San Antonio -9
Over 190 Under 190

7:00 PM Milwaukee +13 Miami -13
Over 199 Under 199

9:30 PM Houston +10 Oklahoma -10
Over 212.5 Under 212.5




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-18-13 09:24 PM
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CNOTES
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NBA Playoff Notebook

April 18, 2013

Could Favored Heat Go 16-0 in Playoffs? History, Odds Say No

No team in the modern era has run through the playoffs without a loss. Michael Jordan's 1995-96 Bulls, who set the NBA record with 72 regular-season wins, were beaten three times on the way to the championship.

Open an account at Bovada and grab an instant 50% Free Bet Bonus on your first deposit.

The best mark by a recent team was 15-1 by the 2000-01 Lakers of Shaq and Kobe. L.A. rolled through the Western Conference postseason at 11-0 but was upset at home in Game 1 of the NBA Finals by the 76ers in overtime. The Lakers won the next four rather easily and had to settle for being the only team to go unbeaten on the road in the postseason.

Thus the Miami Heat would put themselves in the record books this postseason by running the table, and they showed what they are capable of with a 27-game winning streak during the year. However, Miami is given just a +2500 shot on a yes-only prop at Bovada to go unbeaten in these playoffs.

The Heat are 5/8 favorites at the book to repeat as the NBA champions. They begin their best-of-7 opening round matchup against No. 8 Milwaukee as 11.5-point favorites. Miami won three of four regular-season meetings. Milwaukee ended the season losing five of six and the win was in a meaningless game at Oklahoma City in which the Thunder sat Kevin Durant.

*-No. 2 N.Y. Knicks versus No. 7 Boston: New York took three of four against Boston (3-1 ATS) and opened as a 7.5-point favorite for Game 1 Saturday. Knicks star Carmelo Anthony ended Durant's reign as the three-time scoring champion, but that's bad news for Knicks futures. The last team to win the title with a scoring champion was the 1999-2000 Lakers with Shaq. The Knicks are 16/1 to do so.

*-No. 3 Indiana versus No. 6 Atlanta: The Hawks slipped from No. 5 to No. 6 by losing their last two games. These teams split four regular-season meetings (2-2 ATS), each winning both at home. The Pacers are seven-point favorites for Game 1 Sunday and 25/1 to win the NBA title.

*-No. 4 Brooklyn versus No. 5 Chicago: Could Derrick Rose make his season debut in the playoffs for the Bulls? No one expects that, but the team hasn't ruled it out. Chicago won three of four meetings (3-1 ATS), but the Nets are five-point favorites for Game 1.

Not Much Confidence in Lakers

The Lakers didn't need to win their finale Wednesday against Houston to make the playoffs as it turned out, but it was a potentially big victory as it got L.A. the No. 7 seed and a better matchup on paper with No. 2 San Antonio instead of Oklahoma City. Still, the Lakers are 40/1 long shots to win the NBA title.

While Kobe Bryant is out for the playoffs, the Lakers hope Steve Nash will be ready for Game 1. He has missed eight straight with a hamstring injury. The Spurs got Manu Ginobili back for the first time Wednesday since March 29 but lost their third-straight game. The Spurs won two of three regular-season meetings (1-2 ATS), are nine-point favorites for the opener and 10/1 to win the West.

No. 1 Oklahoma City versus No. 8 Houston: James Harden faces the team that traded him on the eve of the season as Houston slipped to No. 8 by losing three of their final four. OKC won two of three meetings and didn't score less than 119 points in any game against one of the league's worst defenses. The Thunder are 4/1 to win the NBA title and 10-point Game 1 favorites.

No. 3 Denver versus No. 6 Golden State: The Nuggets, the NBA's highest-scoring team, bring a 23-game home winning streak into Game 1 and were an NBA-best 38-3 there this season. Denver won three of four meetings with the Warriors and is a 7.5-point favorite for Game 1.

No. 4 L.A. Clippers versus No. 5 Memphis: A rematch of last year's first-rounder when the Clippers beat the Grizzlies in seven games. L.A. is the hottest team in the West with a seven-game winning streak (5-2 ATS) and took three of four against Memphis. The Clips are 25/1 to win the West.

Bet on every big shot, swat and dunk with Bovada Live Betting. Raise your game.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-19-13 05:28 PM
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First Round Betting Angles

April 19, 2013


With help from our trusted well-oiled database, let’s examine four time-tested proven theories that have lined our pocket during the opening round of playoffs. All results are since 1991 unless noted otherwise.

Here’s what the machine has to say…

No. 8 Seeds Are Behind The 8-Ball

For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the postseason. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.

Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost over 70% of time (45-114) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks, the 2007 Golden State Warriors and last year’s 2012 Philadelphia 76ers were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and advance to Round Two of the playoffs.

And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch out of the match with alarming regularity, going 3-23 SU and 7-19 ATS, including 1-13 SU and 2-12 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a loss of 14 or more points in their last game.

Upset Losers Are Winners

No, it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.

That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 56-35-4 ATS, a rock solid number. If they were upset at home in this round and return home they improve to 52-14 SU and 39-24-3 ATS, including 24-1 SU and 18-6-1 ATS when squaring off against a No. 6 or lower seed.

Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. That’s because they don’t lose their composure. Instead they almost always elect to dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.

Double-Digit Dogma

Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 28-16-2 ATS in this role, including 17-8-1 ATS versus a non-division foe.

And if these same guys are involved in a game with the Over/Under total set at 193 or higher they zoom to 15-3 ATS.

Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.

And Down Goes Frazier

The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are wobbly and oftentimes one punch away from being counted out.

With glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 6-30 SU and 11-25 ATS away from home this round, including 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in lid-lifters.

Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are 3-23 SU and 7-19 ATS on their way to the canvas.

Golden Trend

The Golden State Warriors are 12-1-1 ATS as dogs or favorites of less than 3 points in the first round of the playoffs, including 8-0 ATS when taking 8 or less points.

Enjoy the opening round of the 2013 NBA playoffs.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-19-13 05:30 PM
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Pacers-Hawks Outlook

April 19, 2013


No. 3 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 6 Atlanta Hawks

Series Price: Indiana -600, Atlanta +400

Series Format: Indiana, 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 - Sunday, Apr. 21
Game 2 - Wednesday, Apr. 24
Game 3 - Saturday, Apr. 27
Game 4 - Monday, Apr. 29
Game 5* - Wednesday, May 1
Game 6* - Friday, May 3
Game 7* - Sunday, May 5

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG

Indiana Pacers 49-32 42-39 30-11 19-21 38-42 94.7 90.7

Atlanta Hawks 44-38 37-43 25-16 19-22 42-39 98 97.5
2012-13 Head to Head Meetings

Date Results Total
Nov. 7, 2012 Atlanta (+1) 89 vs. Indiana 86 UNDER 192

Dec. 29, 2012 Atlanta (-2.5) 109 vs. Indiana 100 OVER 182

Feb. 5, 2013 Indiana (-6) 114 vs. Atlanta 103 OVER 184

Mar. 25, 2013 Indiana (-6.5) 100 vs. Atlanta 94 OVER 184.5

Skinny: Both teams limp into the postseason but it’s debatable if that matters. Indiana was basically locked into the No. 3 seed before it dropped five of its last six games. Atlanta tanked its last two games in order to fall to the sixth seed. The thinking had to be that there wasn’t much difference between the Nets and Pacers and in this scenario, the Hawks wouldn’t have to face mighty Miami in a potential second-round matchup. Remember, Atlanta hasn’t made the Eastern Conference finals in franchise history.

Indiana isn’t packing quite the punch it had when it led the Heat 2-1 and had an eight-point halftime lead in Game 4 of last season’s East semifinals. Danny Granger, who has averaged 18.2 points per game during his eight-year career, played only five games this year and remains out due to a knee injury.

However, Granger’s absence has allowed Paul George to become the focus of the offense. George responded with a career year, averaging 17.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.8 steals per game. Veteran power forward David West remains one of the league’s top weapons on the low post, averaging 17.1 points and 7.7 rebounds per contest. George Hill and Roy Hibbert are averaging 14.2 and 11.9 PPG, respectively.

Hibbert is fourth in the NBA in blocked shots, averaging 2.6 rejections per game. Lance Stephenson (8.8 PPG) and Gerald Green (7.0 PPG) provide the Pacers with athleticism off the bench.

Atlanta has been plagued by injuries all year long. Lou Williams, who was averaging 14.1 points and 3.6 assists per game, went down with an ACL tear before the All-Star break. Zaza Pachulia, the veteran big man whose bruising style is made for the postseason, is out for the year with an Achilles injury.

If the Hawks are going to have success in this series, they will need their horses to produce. I’m talking about Al Horford and Josh Smith. Horford enjoyed another banner campaign, averaging 17.4 points, 10.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.1 seals and 1.0 blocked shots per game. Horford is extremely efficient, draining 54.3 percent of his shots from the field.

Smith is most likely making his final appearances in a Hawks uniform. The soon-to-be free agent has had a very solid nine-year run with his hometown organization, but it has been a tortured existence the last few years.

Smith has as much talent as any player in the league. There just aren’t many 6-10 guys that can jump out of the gym, run the floor, penetrate off the dribble and shoot.

On his best nights, Smith scores by getting to (or tearing down) the rim, dishes to open teammates for easy buckets, dominates the boards and saves his teammates on defense by altering shots and blocking others. He can pull down a rebound, dribble the length of the floor and dunk on anyone’s face – and make it look easy.

But on other nights, his shot selection and body language are awful. Going on 3-4 years now, the home crowd at Philips Arena groans every time he misses a jumper from beyond 18 feet out.

There have been feuds with former coach Mike Woodson and current head man Larry Drew. There have been multiple suspensions and trade rumors galore.

To his credit, though, Smith has never been in trouble with the law. I only point that out because it’s not as if Smith is J.R. Rider (or even Michael Vick). He is soft spoken and hides his frustrations with the home crowd (rather than flicking them off like Vick once did) if they even exist.

Smith has indicated that he wants a ‘max contract,’ but GM Danny Ferry isn’t going that route. Unless Smith is a monster in this series, there won’t be a long line of teams ready to pull that trigger, either.

Kyle Korver is second in the NBA in 3-point shooting and he has to rain 3’s for the Hawks to push the Pacers. Jeff Teague and Devin Harris must play well, too.

Head-to-Head Matchups: These teams split the season series with the home team winning outright in four meetings. Atlanta won an 89-86 decision but failed to cover the number as a four-point ‘chalk’ on Nov. 7. Horford scored 16 points and grabbed nine rebounds, while Teague finished with 15 points, six boards, six assists and three steals. Hill and West scored 20 points apiece in the losing effort. The 175 combined points fell ‘under’ the 192-point total.

On Dec. 29 at Philips, the Hawks captured a 109-100 win as 2.5-point home favorites. The 209 combined points soared ‘over’ the 182-point tally. The catalysts for Atlanta were Williams and Pachulia, both of whom won’t be available in this series. Williams had 21 points and 12 assists, while Pachulia produced 17 points and 14 boards. West scored a game-high 29 points for the Pacers.

Indiana beat Atlanta 114-103 as a six-point home favorite on Feb. 5 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. George led seven players in double figures with 29 points. The 217 combined points coasted ‘over’ the 184-point total.

On March 24, the Pacers bested the Hawks 106-100 as 6.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Atlanta outscored Indy 31-15 in the final stanza to post the backdoor cover. The 206 combined points went ‘over’ the 194-point tally. Hibbert paced the winners with 17 points, 13 rebounds and three blocked shots.

The home team has won outright in nine of the last 10 head-to-head meetings.

Betting Notes: When listed as an underdog of six points or more this season, Atlanta has compiled a 5-5 spread record. As for the Pacers, they own a 15-15 spread record in 30 games as favorites of six points or more.

The ‘over’ is on a 6-2 run in Indiana’s last eight games. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five outings.

Sportsbook.ag has the Pacers with 30/1 odds to win the NBA title. The Hawks have the second-longest odds at 250/1.

Series Outlook: ESPN.com took a poll of 10 of its writers/analysts and each predicted the Pacers to advance. Only one had the series going the seven-game distance.

With the exception of Horford and Teague, none of these Hawks are signed beyond this season. But they are all playing for their next contract(s) and this is the playoffs. Therefore, I expect Atlanta to give a quality effort and that should equate to a competitive series. I think the Pacers advance with a Game 6 victory at The Highlight Factory.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Sportsbook.ag has the Heat as the -180 ‘chalk’ to win the NBA title. The Thunder own the second-shortest odds at +550 (risk $100 to win $550).

--On Thursday, Doug Collins resigned as the head coach of the Philadelphia 76ers. Indeed, the dude has had a hard-luck career. Collins was robbed of a gold medal at the 1972 Olympics. He was a four-time All-Star as a player for the 76ers, but they won the NBA title two years after injuries forced him into retirement. The Bulls didn’t win their NBA championships until the organization forced him out in favor of Phil Jackson. Then last season, Collins was lauded for his work with a young Sixers squad that knocked out the top-seeded Bulls (albeit sans Derrick Rose) in the first round of the playoffs. But when Philadelphia traded for Andrew Bynum this past off-season and then got zero minutes of playing time from him, Collins’s ****-poor luck surfaced once again. Clearly his exit comes from frustration with the move that resulted in a lost season and, unfortunately for Collins, it most likely signals the end of a career that was always successful but never tasted the ultimate prize.

--Also on Thursday, the Cavs fired Byron Scott after three disastrous campaigns that were predictable with LeBron’s exit from Cleveland. Plus, the Pistons handed Lawrence Frank a pink slip.

-- Quote of the Week: After suffering through Tuesday’s TNT games (Raptors-Hawks and Clippers-Trail Blazers), Charles Barkley remarked, “All I’m going to do tomorrow is sit around and watch basketball… I hope they got hi-definition in the club.”




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-19-13 05:32 PM
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Heat-Bucks Outlook

April 18, 2013


No. 1 Miami Heat vs. No. 8 Milwaukee Bucks

Series Price: Miami -6500, Milwaukee +3500

Series Format: Miami, 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 - Sunday, April 21 (7:00 PM EST, TNT)
Game 2 - Tuesday, April 23 (7:30 PM EST, NBA TV)
Game 3 - Thursday, April 25 (7:00 PM EST, TNT)
Game 4 - Sunday, April 28 (3:30 PM EST, ABC)
Game 5* - Tuesday, April 30 (TBD)
Game 6* - Thursday, May 2 (TBD)
Game 7* - Thursday, May 4 (TBD)

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS

TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG

Miami Heat 66-16 46-36 37-4 29-12 42-39-1 102.9 95.0

Milwaukee Bucks 38-44 37-45 21-20 17-24 39-41-2 98.9 100.4

2012-13 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total

04/09/13 Milwaukee 83 @ Miami 94 (-6.5) UNDER 197.5

03/15/13 Miami 107 (-5.5) @ Milwaukee 94 UNDER 202

12/29/12 Miami 85 @ Milwaukee 104 (+4.5) UNDER 199.5

11/21/12 Milwaukee 106 @ Miami 113 (-9.5) OT OVER 202.5

Skinny: The Heat cruised through to the best record in the regular season with a 66-16 mark, as Miami looks to defend its title. The question for the Heat at this point is not if they will make the Finals again, but in how many games? Miami takes on the only sub-.500 team in the playoffs as Milwaukee qualified with a 38-44 mark.

Since Super Bowl Sunday, Erik Spoelstra's team has lost just twice, while putting together a remarkable 27-game winning streak that stretched from February 3 through March 25. The two defeats in this stretch came to Chicago and New York, two teams the Heat can possibly face in the next two rounds. Miami is currently riding a nine-game hot streak, as LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh have each sat out a handful of times in this stretch.

The Bucks are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2010, when Milwaukee was bounced in seven games by Atlanta. The task will be significantly tougher this time around, the Bucks stumbled down the stretch by losing 13 of their final 16 games. Due to the mediocrity in bottom of the conference, Milwaukee was able to clinch a playoff berth in spite of this awful stretch. The Bucks' defense allowed at least 100 points in 16 of the final 21 contests, but Milwaukee hit the 'under' in seven of its last nine road games.

Head-to-Head Matchups: Miami captured three of four meetings in the season series, including both at the American Airlines Arena. In late November, the Heat held off the Bucks in overtime, 113-106, as Milwaukee managed to cash as 9 ½-point underdogs. The game was set to finish 'under' the total, but a James layup in the final minute forced overtime, erasing a seven-point deficit with five minutes remaining in regulation. The Heat squandered an early 18-point advantage, but James, Wade, and Bosh combined to score 90 points.

The Bucks dealt the Heat a 19-point whipping on December 29 at the BMO Harris Bradley Center, 104-85 as 4 ½-point home 'dogs. Miami played with no rest following a loss at Detroit, as its legs went out in a 35-14 fourth quarter surge by Milwaukee. The Bucks shot just 40% from the floor, but Brandon Jennings led Milwaukee with 25 points for their fourth win in the past six meetings with the Heat dating back to 2011.

Miami dominated Milwaukee in the final two meetings, including a 107-94 thumping of the Bucks in Wisconsin in mid-March. The Heat limited the Bucks to just 37% shooting, while taking a 16-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. In the last matchup of the season, Wade and Bosh sat out for Miami, but the Heat cruised to a 94-83 home triumph as 6 ½-point favorites. For the exception of 30 points by Jennings, not one other Buck scored in double-figures.

Betting Notes: The Heat lost just four times at home this season, while posting an 8-8 ATS record at the AAA since the All-Star break. Miami will likely be a double-digit favorite each time at home, as the Heat put together a 7-11 ATS record in that pointspread role. Since the start of February, Miami compiled a solid 9-4 ATS record as road 'chalk,' while winning 17 of its past 18 on the highway.

The Bucks were awful when receiving points at home this season, going 3-7 ATS in 10 opportunities. One of those covers came against the Heat in December, but the scheduling situation favored Milwaukee greatly. As a road 'dog, the Bucks were an average 10-10 ATS since the start of January, while losing nine of the last 10 straight-up away from Wisconsin.

Series Outlook: The Heat will advance to the second round, but will it be a sweep? Since the Big Three came together in 2010-11, Miami has not pulled off a four-game sweep in eight playoff series. This may be the time where the Heat won't mess around and let Brooklyn and Chicago slaughter each other in the 4/5 matchup. Miami moves to the second round with four wins in four games.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-19-13 05:34 PM
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Knicks-Celtics Outlook

April 19, 2013

No. 2 New York Knicks vs. No. 7 Boston Celtics

Series Price: New York -380, Boston +315

Series Format: New York, 2-2-1-1-1

Game 1 - Saturday, April 20 (3:00 PM EST, ABC)
Game 2 - Tuesday, April 23 (8:00 PM EST, TNT)
Game 3 - Friday, April 26 (8:00 PM EST, ESPN)
Game 4 - Sunday, April 28 (1:00 PM EST, ABC)
Game 5* - Wednesday, May 1 (TBD)
Game 6* - Friday, May 3 (TBD)
Game 7* - Sunday, May 5 (TBD)


HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU ATS HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER PPG DPPG

New York Knicks 54-28 46-34-2 31-10 23-18 39-41-2 100.0 95.7

Boston Celtics 41-40 36-42-3 27-13 14-27 42-38-1 96.5 96.7

2012-13 Head to Head Meetings

Date Results Total
03/31/13 Boston 89 @ New York 108 (-6.5) UNDER 197.5

03/26/13 New York 100 (+2.5) @ Boston 85 UNDER 194

01/24/13 New York 89 (-1) @ Boston 86 UNDER 189

01/07/13 Boston 102 (+7.5) @ New York 96 OVER 191.5

Skinny: These teams saw each other to open the preseason. They didn't care for each other very much then and certainly won't be holding back any venom now that only one of them can move forward.

If there's a bench-clearing affair to be seen in the first round, it's likely to come here. That Metta World Peace lurks in another potentially physical series out West has been taken into account in that opinion, but there isn't even half as much bad blood between long-time rivals like the Lakers and Spurs as there is here. One of the more memorable images of a season filled with them was Carmelo Anthony waiting around for Kevin Garnett outside where the team buses were parked following the first regular season meeting on Jan. 7. Anthony felt Garnett had crossed the line during in-game verbal jarring and originally went toward Boston's locker room before being restrained by security.

The situation blew over and the teams have faced each other three times since, but you just know the pressure of these playoffs are going to emotions simmering on high. It won't take much to reach full boil. Beyond Anthony and Garnett's beef, there are also known agitators Paul Pierce, Kenyon Martin, Jason Terry and J.R. Smith to watch in a series where head games will be as much of the equation as defensive adjustments.

In fact, Boston's best bet is actually to try and get inside Anthony's head in an effort to add to the enormous pressure he'll be under from long-suffering Knicks fans who expect to get out of the first round for the first time since 2000 and are relying on the franchise's first NBA scoring champion since 1985 (Bernard King) to deliver the goods.

Anthony says he's feeling no pressure, but this series requires him to put the Knicks on his back. The last few weeks have spoiled everyone. He averaged 36.9 points through eight April games to lock up the Atlantic Division and a No. 2 seed, shooting 54 percent from the field and 47 percent from 3-point range. After notching just four double-doubles in New York's first 70 games, Anthony put together six in his last 10 games, demonstrating a drive that has him entering this postseason in beast mode. If he's unable to meet newly inflated expectations, it will be labeled a choke job. Amar'e Stoudemire is unlikely to play in the series. The stage is Melo's alone. No excuses.

Boston coveted the spoiler role here, coasting down the stretch to wind up in seventh once it became apparent the Knicks would finish No. 2. Expectations plummeted when Rajon Rondo tore his ACL, but the Celtics can't afford to wallow given the limited shelf life of Garnett and Pierce. Jeff Green and Courtney Lee have picked up their level of play down the stretch, while Avery Bradley's defense has been effective in helping replace Rondo at the point. With Doc Rivers pushing buttons, the Celtics feel they have a fighting chance in the Eastern Conference's most compelling first-round series.

Head-to-Head Matchups: New York won three of four meetings with the Celtics, but Garnett and Chandler only played twice, missing both March matchups. Rondo was a part of the first Boston loss, Stoudemire also saw time and the teams that will take the court Saturday afternoon will be dramatically different. Chandler and Garnett will match up in the middle coming off plenty of rest. New York's center has played four times since March 14 and has sat since April 7. Garnett has played 70 minutes since March 22, storing energy once it was clear the Celtics would be a playoff team. How both fare and whether they can get back in rhythm while avoiding foul trouble is essential since they will be anchoring the defense and typically expertly patrol the paint.

At the point of attack, Avery Bradley's ability to pressure and harass could spell trouble for Raymond Felton and Jason Kidd, especially with normal starter and deft ball-handler Pablo Prigioni out for Game 1 with an ankle injury. Mike Woodson is likely to find minutes for Iman Shumpert's energy and perimeter defense, while Chris Crawford's late surge could earn him more time. The unheralded rookie could be an x-factor to make Paul Pierce work on the defensive end with Jeff Green likely to be on Melo detail. The Celtics have done a great job forcing Anthony into tough shots in the four meetings, limiting him to sub-.500 shooting every time. He shot 35 percent (36-for-103) from the field, including 9-for-30 from 3-point range. J.R. Smith averaged 20 points per game and participated in all four meetings, but shot just 39 percent against Boston. He'll see plenty of Pierce and Lee.

Betting Notes: Boston swept the last playoff series between these teams in 2011, but with Stoudemire likely a scratch for the duration of it due to is ailing right knee, Anthony, Pierce and Garnett are the only players left from either roster. New York has won three playoff games since its 2000 Eastern Conference finals loss to Indiana, failing to advance to the second round in four appearances. Boston has gotten out of the first round five straight years, but have been the favorite in that opening series each time. The Celtics join No. 8 Milwaukee as the only playoff teams to have a negative scoring margin. The Knicks join only top-seeded Miami as Eastern Conference teams that averaged 100 or more points for the season. New York is sizzling against the number down the stretch, covering nine of their last 11.

Series Outlook: With TNT playing such a large role in playoff coverage, we'll be hearing a lot of "we know drama" tags. This series should fit that billing best of all. Having defeated the Celtics twice at TD Garden this season, the Knicks are confident they can make this series a brief one. Meanwhile, Pierce is the type that relishes Spike Lee's presence and antagonizes the New York crowd by blowing kisses after key buckets. Pushing the Heat the past few years have this Boston nucleus comfortable in an underdog role, so testing the Knicks' will and mental toughness will be key to their approach. If they force Anthony and Smith into sub-40 percent shooting like they did in the regular season and get contributions from the supporting cast, they can win this series. If Melo stays hot and keys a 3-point barrage that makes New York the East's most dangerous team not named the Heat, he'll lift a massive burden off his shoulders. However it goes, this is too juicy a matchup not to want it to go the distance.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-19-13 05:37 PM
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NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, April 20

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BOSTON (41 - 40) at NEW YORK (54 - 28) - 4/20/2013, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) in road games this season.
BOSTON is 73-102 ATS (-39.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs since 1996.
BOSTON is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 47-34 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games this season.
NEW YORK is 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) in home games this season.
NEW YORK is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) second half of the season this season.
NEW YORK is 377-320 ATS (+25.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 9-7 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 11-5 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
8 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (47 - 35) at DENVER (57 - 25) - 4/20/2013, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
DENVER is 49-33 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games this season.
DENVER is 19-3 ATS (+15.7 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
DENVER is 34-24 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
DENVER is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in home games this season.
DENVER is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
DENVER is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) second half of the season this season.
DENVER is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against Pacific division opponents this season.
DENVER is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
DENVER is 28-19 ATS (+7.1 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.
DENVER is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
DENVER is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
DENVER is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
DENVER is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 7-3 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 6-4 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (45 - 37) at BROOKLYN (49 - 33) - 4/20/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 36-45 ATS (-13.5 Units) in all games this season.
CHICAGO is 45-31 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 50-75 ATS (-32.5 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
BROOKLYN is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in home games against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BROOKLYN is 14-24 ATS (-12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BROOKLYN is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 6-5 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 8-3 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (56 - 26) at LA CLIPPERS (56 - 26) - 4/20/2013, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 47-32 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games this season.
MEMPHIS is 52-35 ATS (+13.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 61-40 ATS (+17.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
MEMPHIS is 77-58 ATS (+13.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 64-34 ATS (+26.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 69-96 ATS (-36.6 Units) against Southwest division opponents since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 185-246 ATS (-85.6 Units) after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 146-200 ATS (-74.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 74-105 ATS (-41.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=91 points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 10-7 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 11-7 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
12 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, April 21

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ATLANTA (44 - 38) at INDIANA (49 - 32) - 4/21/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 46-69 ATS (-29.9 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=91 points/game since 1996.
INDIANA is 43-65 ATS (-28.5 Units) in home games in April games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 7-4 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 7-4 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (45 - 37) at SAN ANTONIO (58 - 24) - 4/21/2013, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 34-47 ATS (-17.7 Units) in all games this season.
LA LAKERS are 21-33 ATS (-15.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 89-68 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 73-54 ATS (+13.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 121-88 ATS (+24.2 Units) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 47-30 ATS (+14.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 162-119 ATS (+31.1 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 112-80 ATS (+24.0 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 136-103 ATS (+22.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) second half of the season this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 6-4 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 6-4 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MILWAUKEE (38 - 44) at MIAMI (66 - 16) - 4/21/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 36-45 ATS (-13.5 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 29-47 ATS (-22.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 46-36 ATS (+6.4 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) second half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 6-5 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 7-4 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (45 - 37) at OKLAHOMA CITY (60 - 22) - 4/21/2013, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 46-29 ATS (+14.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 27-14 ATS (+11.6 Units) in home games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 80-49 ATS (+26.1 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-5 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-4 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-19-13 05:41 PM
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NBA
Short Sheet

Saturday, April 20

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
Boston at New York, 3:00 ET ABC
Boston: 1-8 ATS off a loss by 15+ points
New York: 19-7 ATS at home after winning 3 of their last 4 games

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
Golden State at Denver, 5:30 ET ESPN
Golden State: 1-10 ATS away off BB ATS wins
Denver: 12-1 ATS at home with a total of 210+ points

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
Chicago at Brooklyn, 8:00 ET ESPN
Chicago: 16-6 ATS away with a total of 180 to 189.5 points
Brooklyn: 2-10 ATS at home playing with revenge

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
Memphis at LA Clippers, 10:30 ET ESPN
Memphis: 20-10 ATS off a home win
LA Clippers: 7-0 Over as a home favorite of 6 points or less


Sunday, April 21

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
Atlanta at Indiana, 1:00 ET TNT
Atlanta: 5-14 ATS playing their second game in five days
Indiana: 13-2 Under off 4+ ATS losses

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
LA Lakers at San Antonio, 3:30 ET ABC
LA Lakers: 5-15 ATS as a road underdog
San Antonio: 10-1 ATS off a home loss

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
Milwaukee at Miami, 7:00 ET TNT
Milwaukee: 7-15 ATS revenging a loss by 10+ points
Miami: 27-13 ATS off a home game

First Round, Game One (Series Tied 0-0)
Houston at Oklahoma City, 9:30 ET TNT
Houston: 0-8 ATS away off BB SU losses
Oklahoma City: 15-6 ATS off a SU loss
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Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-19-13 05:42 PM
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Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NBA

Saturday, April 20

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Trend Report
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3:00 PM
BOSTON vs. NEW YORK
Boston is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Boston is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing New York
New York is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
New York is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

5:30 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. DENVER
Golden State is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Denver
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State

8:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. BROOKLYN
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Chicago's last 15 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
Chicago is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games
Brooklyn is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago

10:30 PM
MEMPHIS vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
Memphis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 7 games when playing at home against Memphis
LA Clippers are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against Memphis




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-19-13 05:43 PM
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NBA

Saturday, April 20

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NBA Eastern Conference playoff preview: Round 1
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The Eastern Conference playoffs are a complicated sandwich of sorts. On top you have the Miami Heat and on the bottom the Milwaukee Bucks. But in between is one of the tightest and most competitive groups in years.

Teams seeded No. 2 through No. 7 have just as much of a chance to make the conference finals as the clubs ranked above or below them. The Knicks, Pacers, Nets, Bulls, Hawks and Celtics are all capable of beating each other on any given night. That parity should open up value in the series prices and Eastern Conference futures market.

No. 1 Miami Heat vs. No. 8 Milwaukee Bucks

Season series: Heat won 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U

Series prices: Miami -6,000, Milwaukee +4,000

Why bet Miami: Why not? The Heat are hands down the class of the NBA and have been waiting for this moment since hoisting last year’s Larry O’Brien Trophy. Miami continued to build on its NBA-best record despite resting LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh over the final weeks of the schedule, and kept covering thanks to a deep and experienced bench.

Why bet the Bucks: Milwaukee has known its first-round opponent for some time now and has had plenty of tape to hammer out a game plan for the Heat. In their one win over Miami, the Bucks were able to force 22 turnovers. They rank second in the NBA in forcing turnovers (16.1) while the Heat coughed the ball up 14 times a night – fourth most in the league.

No. 2 New York Knicks vs. No. 7 Boston Celtics

Season series: Knicks won 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U

Series prices: New York -400, Boston +300

Why bet the Knicks: The Celtics were one of the few Eastern Conference playoff teams the Knicks beat up on, with N.Y. going 3-1 SU and ATS. New York defeated Boston by an average of more than 13 points in its three wins over the Celtics. The Knicks are also expected to have Tyson Chandler and Kenyon Martin back for the playoffs.

Why bet the Celtics: Boston has used a platoon of athletic guards – Avery Bradley, Courtney Lee and Jordan Crawford – to replace Rajon Rondo, giving the Celtics scoring depth off the bench. Boston also heads into the postseason with a heavy heart following the bombings at the Boston Marathon. The Celtics could step up as inspiration for a city in need of some good news.

No. 3 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 6 Atlanta Hawks

Season series: Split 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U

Series prices: Indiana -600, Atlanta +400

Why bet the Pacers: Indiana earned the No. 3 seed in the East despite having its star forward Danny Granger for just five games all season. The Pacers are a tough out at home, where they went 30-10 SU (22-18 ATS). They rebound well and play tight defense – two key components for any successful postseason run.

Why bet the Hawks: Indiana limped into the postseason with just one win in its final six games. The Hawks, who are a tough road team - 23-18 ATS - could steal a game or two in Indianapolis. The teams split their four games SU and ATS this year but Atlanta has been the better wager, going 10-4 ATS in their last 14 head-to-heads.

No. 4 Brooklyn Nets vs. No. 5 Chicago Bulls

Season series: Bulls won 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U

Series prices: Brooklyn -165, Chicago +145

Why bet the Nets: Brooklyn is peaking at the right time and a lot of that is due to Deron Williams. After playing much of the season injured, Williams is feeling good and was filling it up down the home stretch. The Nets were stellar in tight games this season, boasting a 9-4 SU record in games decided by three points or less and were 5-0 in overtime affairs.

Why bet the Bulls: Chicago has played its best ball against Eastern Conference playoff teams. The Bulls were 12-7 SU and 14-5 ATS versus teams seeded No. 2 through No. 7. The case isn’t completely closed on Derrick Rose’s possible return, but Chicago has managed to get along without him. The grimy Bulls are more than comfortable playing at the Nets’ slow-motion pace.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-19-13 05:44 PM
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NBA

Saturday, April 20

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NBA Western Conference playoff preview: Round 1
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It was a wild ride in the Western Conference and the fun won’t end with the regular season. Oklahoma City edged out San Antonio for the top seed while the L.A. Lakers, expected to run the table in the conference, squeaked into the No. 7 spot on the final night of the season.

The L.A. Clippers, Denver and Memphis have all looked like title contenders at times this year and Golden State and Houston are as dangerous as any team with their high-powered offenses. Needless to say, there are more surprises in store for the West during the postseason.

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 Houston Rockets

Season series: Thunder won 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 3-0 O/U

Series prices: Oklahoma City -2,000, Houston +1,200

Why bet the Thunder: Oklahoma City lost just seven games at home and went 27-14 ATS as a host this season. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are a handful for Houston’s porous defense and combined to average just under 50 points in the three games with the Rockets. Houston’s up-and-down game leads to a league-high 16.4 turnovers a game.

Why bet the Rockets: Houston can explode offensively and finished second in the NBA with 106 points per game. The Thunder have struggled in close games, going just 3-6 SU in contests decided by three points or less. And don’t forget about former OKC guard James Harden, who averaged more than 29 points in the three games versus his former club, including a 46-point performance in their last meeting.

No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers

Season series: Spurs won 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 0-3 O/U

Series prices: San Antonio -1,600, Los Angeles +1,000

Why bet the Spurs: San Antonio lost only six games at home all season while L.A. was terrible on the road, going 16-25 SU and 15-25-1 ATS. Spurs PG Tony Parker is going to be a handful for the Lakers’ unathletic duo of Steven Blake and Steve Nash, who is less than healthy. San Antonio shoots better than 79 percent from the foul line, L.A. shoots an NBA-worst 69.2 percent. No Kobe. Who makes the tough shots?

Why bet the Lakers: Pau Gasol and Dwight Howard is the best frontcourt tandem in the league and should push the Spurs around under the basket. Los Angeles was the second-best rebounding team in the NBA while San Antonio finished second last on the glass in the West. Lakers get Games 3, 4 and 6 at Staples Center, where they have lost just once since the All-Star break (13-1 SU, 7-6-1 ATS).

No. 3 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 6 Golden State Warriors

Season series: Nuggets won 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U

Series prices: Denver -600, Golden State +400

Why bet the Nuggets: Denver was the best home team in the NBA, going 38-3 SU and 28-13 ATS inside the thin air of the Pepsi Center. The Nuggets dominate the boards, ranking tops in the league in rebounding, especially on the offensive glass. Denver is tough to game plan for with seven active players averaging nine or more points. The Nuggets rolled into the postseason, losing only two of their final 10 games.

Why bet the Warriors: Golden State can bust a game wide open with its 3-point threats, topping the NBA from distance at 40.3 percent. Stephen Curry has been insane since his All-Star snub, averaging 26 points since the break. Andrew Bogut is getting back into shape and could be a problem for Denver down low, especially if Kenneth Faried continues to miss time.

No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies

Season series: Clippers won 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U

Series prices: Los Angeles -185, Memphis +145

Why bet the Clippers: Los Angeles brings momentum into the postseason, having won seven straight to end the year (5-2 ATS). The Clippers have the mental edge over Memphis, having won the season series and eliminated the Grizzlies in last year’s playoffs. L.A.’s athletic frontcourt of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan made life tough for Memphis leading scorer Zach Randolph last spring. The Clips thrive on turnovers, leading the league in steals and forcing opponents to cough the ball up 16.1 times per game.

Why bet the Grizzlies: Memphis’ slowed-down pace could keep the Clippers’ fastbreak in check and limit turnovers. The Grizzlies were the best team in the West at limiting turnovers, coughing the ball up just 14 times a game. Memphis has excelled in tight games, going 4-1 in overtime and 6-4 in games decided by three points or less. The Clippers were 0-2 in OT and just 3-5 in games decided by three or less.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-19-13 05:45 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NBA

Saturday, April 20

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NBA betting review: Best and worst wagers of the season
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The 2012-13 NBA regular season has come to a close, so it’s time to review the best and worst bets in the Association prior to the playoffs.

Best ATS

Overall: Oklahoma City Thunder (49-31-2 ATS) – The Thunder had massive expectations heading into the 2012-13 campaign and they sure didn’t disappoint bettors.

Home: Denver Nuggets (28-13 ATS) – Bettors cashed on the Nuggets all season long, especially at home where they had an astounding 38-3 straight-up record.

Road: Dallas Mavericks (27-14 ATS) – The Mavericks aren’t playoff bound, but bettors loved their performances away from Dallas this year.

Worst ATS

Overall: Charlotte Bobcats (31-50-1 ATS) – The Bobcats struggled to win 21 games and bettors shouldn’t be surprised by their awful ATS record. Better luck next year.

Home: Chicago Bulls (13-28 ATS) – The Bulls were a fade all year long at the United Center, but were 23-18 ATS on the road.

Road: Charlotte Bobcats (14-26-1 ATS) – The Bobcats were seemingly double-digit dogs in every road game, but they still couldn’t cover the points.

Best over

Overall: Sacramento Kings (48-32-2 over/under) – The Kings allowed 105.1 points per game, which made them an awesome over play.

Home: Sacramento Kings (26-13-2 O/U) – The Kings averaged 95.9 points per game on the road this season, but put up 104.6 per contest at the friendly confines of Sleep Train Arena.

Road: Denver Nuggets (26-14-1 O/U) - The Nuggets averaged 103.9 points per game on the road and gave up 104.4 - the perfect recipe for an over play.

Best under

Overall: Memphis Grizzlies (31-50-1 over/under) – Memphis was the only team in the league not to surrender more than 90 points per game (89.3).

Home: Memphis Grizzlies (14-27 O/U) – The Griz held opponents to only 87 points per game at home.

Road: Washington Wizards (12-29 O/U) – The Wiz put up almost 98 points per game at home but went cold away from the Verizon Center, averaging 88.6 points.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 04-19-13 05:46 PM
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