let's start a nice run with matches the next 8 days !
GL

Not much rest for Burnley and Manchester United when they clash on Tuesday night in what should have been their opening Premier League game of the season. Both sides were involved in FA Cup 3rd round action on Saturday and have had just over 48-hours to recover for their postponed fixture that could see Manchester United move to the top of the table if they pick up points at Turf Moor.

Burnley avoided a shock defeat against MK Dons at the weekend thanks to a 94th-minute equaliser from Matej Vydra to take the game to extra time. Nothing separated the teams after the additional 30 minutes of football either, and Sean Dyche’s men had to advance through to the FA Cup fourth round on penalties.

Man Utd looked like they might have been in the mood for a high scoring encounter when Scott McTominay’s fourth minute header went in on Saturday, but that proved to be the only goal of the game.

Watford did cause the Red Devils some problems, with Adam Masina’s excellent chance being blocked by Dean Henderson shortly after the Scottish midfielder’s opener, and the Hornets had to settle for a defeat even with just one fewer shot than Man Utd’s 19 across the match.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will be relieved to advance unscathed in that competition and without extra time too in order to keep his men fresh over this busy period.

Usually, a run of three road games would be a concern, but for Man Utd it is their bread and butter, winning 10 of their 13 trips this term, as their only two such defeats came in the Champions League.

Of course, their main focus will be their trip to Anfield at the weekend, and with that sandwiched by this encounter and a visit to Fulham, you’d imagine Solskjaer will look to rotate his charges in the latter of the three outings.

The Clarets have started to build some form at Turf Moor, winning three of their last four unbeaten outings since the start of November.

The Red Devils have netted at least twice in each of their last 11 trips since their 3-0 win against Brighton back in late June last season, scoring a total of 31 times across those game (2.82 goals for per game).

They’ve also netted at least twice now in three of their four trips to this stadium since 2017, and we’re confident they can continue that run.

Since the start of last season, Wolves have only won 10 of 41 Premier League games when excluding the bottom-five.

That includes just 5 triumphs in 22 at Molineux in matches against teams from 1st to 15th in the table.

Lazio vs Roma | Friday 15th January 2021, 2:45

Friday night in the Eternal City and it's time for Derby della Capitale, arguably the fiercest rivalry in Italian football with the only disappointment being that this mouthwatering clash will of course be played behind closed doors in front of the usually packed empty curvas.

Let's hope the lack of hostility in the stands of the stadium these two great rivals share doesn’t dim the fiery intensity of battle which usually comes as standard but with both sides coming in to this one in good heart we shouldn’t have to worry on that score.

Lazio come in to this clash on the back of successive wins for the first time this season with the victory over Parma on Sunday also providing their fourth clean sheet in the league and a first since a 2-0 win over Napoli in Stadio Olimpico – curiously the same score line as in all the other shut outs.

However, third placed Roma will “visit” in great heart, having salvaged a late point against Scudetto rivals Inter Milan at the weekend to extend their unbeaten run to four and mean they have lost just once in the last eight Serie A games (W5, D2, L1) also safe in the knowledge le Aquile will have to make do without one of their most influential assets – their 12th man – the notorious Curva Nord.

The last four home matches for Simone Inzaghi’s team have seen a positive result (W2, L2) with the eventual winner on each occasion leading “to nil” at half time – a trend which ties in fairly well with the last five league head to heads which have seen a first half winner – with that team going on to claim all three points at the final whistle.

Exploring that angle of attack further it was interesting to note that the Giallorossi have not conceded a goal in the opening 45 minutes in any of their last six games, scoring themselves in five of them, netting eight times in total.

Their impressive form has seen them score three or more goals in four of the last seven league fixtures, opening the scoring in all of them securing a half time lead in six so therefore I like the look of the odds of 31/10 with Bet Victor for a Roma Half Time/Full Time result in what is even more of a level playing field than in recent clashes.

Wolves v West Brom | Saturday 16th January 2021, 7:30

The opening fixture of the Premier League weekend sees a Black Country derby as Wolves face West Brom at Molineux.

The appointment of Sam Allardyce with the Baggies was supposed to quickly see an up-turn in both results and performance. It has done neither. Since he took charge of his first match on Matchday 14, no side has worse form with Albion picking up just one point in this time.

WBA take on a Wolves team also bereft of any form and consistency as they have three defeats in their last five. It’s hardly a surprise their goals and points have dried up, after the injury to star-man Raul Jimenez, picking up just one win. They have conceded first in every game since his absence which is mightily worrying.

I can’t imagine this will be a thriller with goals flowing, so I’ll take an angle that isn’t usually shared in the 0-0 Half Time result at 13/8 across the majority of bookmakers, I’m taking it at Bet365 (also the same price at SkyBet, Betfair and BetVictor to name a few).

I do fancy Wolves to be the most likely winners but given their poor first half record, I’ll take this market instead of the Draw/Wolves in the Half-Time/Full-time market at 16/5. Both sides sit in the bottom half for first half results, with Wolves conceding and scoring 10.

The home side here have only been winning at half-time in 4/18, that’s just 22%. I don’t expect West Brom to open up until late which could see this bet land. West Brom have conceded 22 goals in the second half of matches but only 14 in the first half.

Considering Wolves have conceded the first goal in every game since Jimenez’s injury in late November, I can’t foresee them scoring early. Allardyce will set up his team to frustrate the Old Gold and take the chances when they come their way.

Wolves are without Daniel Podence and Willy Boly for this game, with Adama Traore also suffering from a hamstring strain. But one man’s return from injury could see a return to winning ways for Wolves.

Torino vs Spezia | Saturday 16th January 2021, 12:00

I want to trust Torino on Saturday afternoon Serie A.

The home side have clearly improved after their disastrous start, with a draw against Napoli and Verona and a clear 3-0 win at Parma. On paper, the Granata should deserve more than what their table suggests – they are a mediocre team, but should avoid relegation easily.

Torino's last defeat on penalties against AC Milan in Coppa Italia could be hampering in terms of fatigue, but enough rotation should guarantee a team fit to beat Spezia at home.

Leeds vs Brighton | Saturday 16th January 2021, 10:00

A Leeds side reeling off the back of a 3-0 defeat away to Crawley of League Two in the FA Cup host Brighton and will be looking to bounce back. Graham Potter’s Seagulls needed penalties to get past Newport County also of League Two with the cup competition once again showcasing the undeniable strength and quality of the English Football League.

The Whites come in as fairly strong favourites despite the visitors outstanding sustained process so far this season, Brighton are just three points above the relegation zone with Fulham immediately below them having two games in hand. It is worrying times for the visitors, but I for one still fully expect them to stay up.

Process
We have seen an overwhelming underperformance by the Seagulls who rank fifth in the division for expected goals compared to 17th. They have scored just 21 from 27.5 expected and conceded 29 from 24.1 expected, their form will turn around at some point if they can sustain those numbers, it is just a matter of whether it will turn around in time to take them clear of the relegation picture.

Leeds have also slightly underperformed and have caught the eye in the entertainment of their fixtures so far this term. They have a top six attack and a bottom three defence, so it does make for good viewing.

Marcelo Bielsa’s men have scored 30 from 30.5 expected goals, ranking fourth for that metric and conceded 33 from 34.4 expected goals, sitting 19th for both measures. They must improve defensively if they are to gain any consistency, but going forward they look excellent, a country mile the best promoted team in the division.

The betting angle
Definitely goals for me, both sides creating plenty of chances and particularly Leeds are leaky at the back. If Brighton have their shooting boots they have more than enough to take all three points.

Leeds have scored in seven of 10.
Leeds have conceded in six of 10.
Leeds have seen both teams score in four of 10.
Leeds have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of 10.

Brighton have scored in six of 10.
Brighton have conceded in nine of 10.
Brighton have seen both teams score in six of 10.
Brighton have seen over 2.5 goals in four of 10.

the rest of the major European leagues have a full slate of matches on deck. Here is a snapshot of what we saw the last time each of these leagues was in action:

Manchester United earned a 1-0 win at Burnley, which moved it to the top of the Premier League table.
Manchester City defeated visiting Brighton 1-0, to push it into the top four for the first time this season.
Tottenham Hotspur was held to a 1-1 draw at home against relegation-zone side Fulham, keeping it outside the top four.
Borussia Mönchengladbach erased a two-goal deficit in its 3-2 win over Bayern Munich. It was Bayern Munich’s first Bundesliga loss since September.
Borussia Dortmund captured a 3-1 victory over host RB Leipzig, moving it into fourth place in the German top flight.
American teenager Matthew Hoppe notched a hat trick for Schalke, delivering the clubs its first win of the season.
Roma and Inter Milan ended in a 2-2 stalemate, which wound up pushing AC Milan’s lead to three points in the Italian biggest league.

Premier League Notes
Liverpool vs. Manchester United: England’s top teams square off, with first place on the line. Liverpool’s unbeaten league run at Anfield sits at a crazy 67 consecutive matches. In fact, the last time the Reds lost at home was April of 2017. Manchester United has been the best team away from home this season, going 7-1-0 with a plus-11 goal differential.
Aston Villa vs. Everton has been postponed due to a COVID outbreak at Aston Villa.

Bundesliga Notes
Union Berlin vs. Leverkusen: The Bundesliga’s surprise team of the season looks to move into the top four Friday when it takes on Bayer Leverkusen. Union Berlin has yet to lose versus the top half of the table, plus it’s unbeaten in its last seven home matches. Leverkusen has been on fire on the road, winning five of its last six matches away from home.

Wolfsburg vs. RB Leipzig: Wolfsburg is unbeaten at home this season, currently on a five-game winning streak at the Volkswagen Arena. In contrast, RB Leipzig has struggled against the top seven teams and winless in four matches.

Serie A Notes
Lazio vs. Roma: The 175th iteration of the Derby della Capitale takes place Friday when Lazio battles Roma. Lazio has struggled this season and finds itself near the middle of the table. However, the club only has one loss in its last six matches, so things are looking up for Biancocelesti. Roma is having a good season, sitting in third after winning five of its last seven matches. It also have the best expected goal differential in Italy at +20.80.

Inter vs. Juventus: Derby d’Italia takes place in Milan on Sunday, as second-place Inter Milan hosts fourth-place Juventus. Inter has stumbled in its last two matches, but has won five consecutive matches at the San Siro. Juventus is starting to return to its top form, winning six of its last eight tilts. Juventus is unbeaten in its last seven matches against Inter in Serie A.

Things could get pretty intense Saturday at London Stadium when West Ham United hosts Burnley in a Premier League showdown.

Both sides have been in relatively decent form as of late, which really makes this an intriguing fixture on a busy weekend in England’s top flight.

The Hammers, unbeaten in their last four games, are coming off two wins on the bounce. Most recently, West Ham earned a 1-0 victory over fifth-division Stockport County on Monday in the third round of the FA Cup.

On the other side, the Clarets have gotten things pointed in the right direction, with just two losses in their last eight contests. That string of tilts has allowed Burnley to get away from the relegation zone, with the focus now on making sure it doesn’t make a return visit to the league cellar.

This really should be one of the better matches on the weekend card, despite the fact it doesn’t feature any marquee names. You just have two teams that play hard going at it in what I believe will be a very even contest.

That said, I am taking a swing at this game ending in a draw and back it at the ripe price of +245 on the line. I just can’t see either getting too risky moving forward, which should thwart any counter-attacking opportunities.

I will also back the total to stay under the number. Burnley and West Ham have combined to play seven consecutive matches across all competitions that have finished with two goals or less, which has me feeling confident.

Bottom line: This should be a low-scoring, hard-fought affair in East London.

Clubs coming off tough defeats last time out go at it Saturday when Leeds United hosts struggling Brighton & Hove Albion in a Premier League affair.

The Peacocks, fresh off a stunning 3-0 loss to League Two side Crawley Town in a Sunday FA Cup meeting, sit in 12th place on the table with 23 points.

On the other side, the visiting Seagulls suffered a frustrating 1-0 defeat to Manchester City during the midweek fixtures in England’s top flight. Anything but a victory in this contest would make it 10 matches in a row without a win for Brighton, which is near the relegation zone in 17th place on 14 points.

Leeds, which has a shot to climb into the top 10 with a victory, has to be licking its chops facing a Brighton side whose only positive showing in almost two months is an FA Cup shootout win over League Two outfit Newport County.

As far as possession goes, the Peacocks hold a sizable advantage over the Seagulls when looking at their respective last three league affairs.

Leeds — 53% | 74% | 62%
Brighton — 50% | 55% | 35%

The Peacocks are the slightly more rested coming off that shock FA Cup exit, plus they possess a ton of firepower the Seagulls simply cannot match.

I will also play the total to go over the number as well. There have been at least three goals in six of Leeds’ last seven league matches, which has me feeling confident in this angle.

Chelsea make the short trip to Fulham on Saturday evening in need of the points following a festive schedule that saw them register just the one win from their last five league games. Frank Lampard will be well aware of the ruthless streak Roman Abramovich possesses when it comes down to managers not producing results, and one expects he will be feeling the pressure. The hosts are unbeaten in their last five, although all have been stalemates and results that have kept them in the relegation places.

Fulham fought back well to claim a point away at Spurs midweek, despite only having 48 hours’ notice for the game.

That result means it’s now six draws on the bounce for the whites in all competitions, and their eight points from their last nine games isn’t bad considering seven of those have come against current top-half opponents, so they certainly have enough about them to cause this Chelsea side some issues, especially with the Blues needing to iron out some issues of their own.

Frank Lampard’s men got back to winning ways in the cup at the weekend with a convincing 4-0 win over Morecambe.

There were many positives to take from that game, with Hakim Ziyech, Kai Havertz, Timo Werner and Callum Hudson-Odoi all making meaningful contributions, though they’ll now want to carry that over to the league.

The Blues are currently on a run of W1-D1-L4 in the league after a very promising start to the campaign, and they now sit down in 9th.

There’s no hiding the fact that this is a must-win game for the visitors if they want to catapult themselves back into the hunt for the top four, and it would set the tone as they enter a run of five out of seven games against current bottom half outfits.

Chelsea certainly have history on their side here, going unbeaten in their last 19 meetings with Fulham in all competitions dating back to March 2006, winning each of the last five and.

In fact, the Cottagers have won just one of 28 Premier League meetings between these sides, so it’s difficult to see them coming away with maximum points here.

While Fulham have put in impressive displays, they still lack a cutting edge up top with Aleksander Mitrovic seemingly out of favour at the moment.

That’s shown by their lack of goals this year, especially at home, as they’ve scored just four goals in seven games at the cottage against teams above them, and with the squad that Chelsea have it’s hard to see them failing to register.

Fulham have proven time and time again that they can take the game to the bigger sides, though that will take their toll on the squad and the simple fact that Chelsea have had nearly two weeks since their last league outing will benefit them hugely here, and they should outlast their local rivals in this one.

Narrow wins aren’t really part of Chelsea’s routine this season, and when they come out on top it tends to be convincing with 12 of their 13 victories across all competitions this season coming by more than a single strike.

This is an extremely important game for the visitors, and we’d expect them to rise to the occasion.

Just eight miles separates these two teams in West London but the gulf in the Premier League table is much wider with Chelsea sitting nine places higher and 14 points better off in the standings. On current form, there is little between the two sides, though, and at a huge price like + 550, I give Fulham a real chance of getting the win in this one. At those odds, the Cottagers are well worth a bit of pizza money to emerge victorious.

Scott Parker's side started the new season poorly and look destined for an immediate return to the Championship, but after some very astute transfer business Fulham are holding their own in the Premier League and were much the better side in Wednesday's 1-1 draw at Tottenham.

The point at Spurs' was Fulham's six successive draw and that is a concern if taking either side to win and at + 300 the tie in this match will be a popular choice with Bettors.

After a bright start to the season, Chelsea have gone backwards in recent weeks. The Blues have just one Premier League win in their last six matches, which has seen them fall off the pace in the race for the title. The poor run has seen rookie manager Frank Lampard installed as the bookies’ favorite in the UK to be the next manager to lose his job.

This is a huge match for both sides for different reasons and it looks the perfect time to face Chelsea. My best wager in this match is to take Fulham + 1 goal on the Asian handicap with the match a push if Chelsea win by a one goal margin and the only way of losing is on Chelsea to win by a two goals or greater. All other match outcomes and we cash.

We broke the rule of betting the unders in the total goals market a fortnight ago when Brighton and Wolves played out a 3-3 classic, but with Fulham's last seven matches all going under the 2.5 goal line and nerves around Chelsea the unders are likely to make an unwelcome return. Of the two options, I would take under 2.5 goals which certainly is the value at + 110 rather than the minus money on the over.

Leicester vs Southampton | Saturday 16th January 2021, 3:00

Danny Ings being ruled out with coronavirus has certainly changed my angle here. I was originally trying to find a way to oppose Leicester but with Southampton missing him, I am reluctant to side with the Saints.

That being said, I still can’t find a way to back Leicester. The Foxes certainly have decent players but I can’t help but feel that their results and points return has been hugely boosted by the volume of penalties they have received this term.

Brendan Rodgers’ side have received a league high 10 spot kicks and have scored eight of them meaning that 26% (eight of 31) have come from 12 yards. You probably couldn’t argue with the majority of the decisions but they were mostly very minor offences that were very unlikely to have resulted in a goal had the foul not taken place.

Additionally, their goal return of 31 is five more than would be expected and having watched them in a number of games recently, I can see why they struggle to break teams down and rely on excellent finishing to win tight games.

Aston Villa, West Ham and Fulham have all won at The King Power stadium this season and Leicester have scored just a single goal in those three fixtures; surely Southampton will adopt a similar strategy on Saturday night: a low block to minimise the space in behind for Jamie Vardy.

With all this in mind, despite the fact that just six of Leicester’s 17 games have seen two goals or fewer, I am going to back Under 2.5 Goals, which is available at 19/20 with Betfair. Such a bet has obliged in Southampton’s last five matches and with their talisman Ings out, I don’t expect them to throw caution to the wind here.

Crotone v Benevento | Sunday 17th January 2021, 9:30

Very interesting price for goals in this game, and someway not justified by the stats.

11 out of 17 Crotone matches have finished with more than 2 goals, with the hosts having the 4th highest number of goals in a game (3.4).

Benevento love a battle, and despite having performed a run of 8 consecutive Under 2.5 games, they seem to be back on goals with their last two result. Moreover, many of their games seemed ‘damned’ with the third goals not coming for unexplainable reasons (just look at their 2-0 defeat against Milan with a missed penalty and open chances wasted).

Atalanta v Genoa | Sunday 17th January 2021,

Again on Atalanta’s carousel this week, where I expect another clear win from the Bergamaschi. Yet, the odds for a home win are really too short, and this team have shown to be a little erratic against small teams, sometimes.

So, I see the best chance in backing both teams to score and more than 2 goals in the game.

Atalanta have conceded in 14 of their 16 Serie A games this season, and I do expect an improved Genoa to fit into those stats.

Inter v Juventus | Sunday 17th January 2021,

Lastly, I am backing on Inter to execute Juventus in the San Siro showdown. The Sunday match should be absolutely a cracker and it will say a lot about the Serie A future of these two teams.

Inter are 4 points ahead from Juve, but they have played one game more so potentially the bianconeri could overcome their rivals in this thrilling match.

Nevertheless, they are missing key central defender Matjis De Ligt and they are very vulnerable at the back, with the Italian international Leonardo Bonucci being one of the most overrated players in the recent years, imho.

We backed on Juve’s vulnerability against Sassuolo last time and this has paid dividends, with Juve conceding even down to ten men. I really can’t see Inter not scoring here with the likes of Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez. Plus, Juventus midfield is far from top quality and all their hopes should rely on the two flanks.

I am pretty confident that Inter can win this game, pushing their rivals to -7 points. There are various options to be on the safe side. One is to bet on the DNB market; another one on the Double chance for Inter and more than 1 goal in the game.

Sheffield United have a spring in their step following their first win of the season and they will look to build on that against Tottenham. For the visitors, there have been questions asked about their ability to kill matches. They can’t afford to drop points against the bottom-placed team. In the corresponding fixture from last season, the Blades ran out 3-1 winners with goals from Sander Berge, Lys Mousset and Oliver McBurnie. A similar result this weekend will give them belief that they can perform a miracle escape.

The last seven days have been positive for Sheffield United and they may have lit an ember beneath the current squad. They have performed well at times this year, but the lack of goals in attack have caused them problems and prevented them from picking up points. Despite the improvement against Newcastle United, they had to rely on a penalty to get on the scoresheet. Chris Wilder will know that there is a lot to improve on before they can reach the levels of last season, but the three points were a positive. They have nothing to lose on Sunday and that makes them a dangerous opponent for Tottenham.

Tottenham have continually dropped points from losing positions. It is a habit that they can’t break and it will be playing on the minds of the players in the latter stages of matches. Against Fulham, Spurs deserved to take the three points, as they created several clear cut chances. Son Heung-min had a rare off day in front of goal and the team dropped points as a result. It is unlikely that the South Korean will be as wasteful this weekend if afforded similar opportunities. The title remains a long way off, but a victory will stabilise their position in the top four.

Interesting stats

Sheffield United’s clean sheet against Newcastle United was their first in 21 Premier League matches.

Tottenham have failed to win in their last four league matches away from home, scoring just three times during this time.

Key men

Fleck

The Scottish international will be looking to have a much better and more impactful second half of the season. He started in midfield against Newcastle United and there were signs that the Blades were getting back to their best in these areas. The combination of Oliver Norwood, Fleck and John Lundstram worked well for the first half of last season. Chris Wilder brought the three back together in midweek and it worked well for the team. Against Newcastle, Fleck completed 97% of his passes, two of which were key passes. He was very good at recycling possession in the week and he will be key to their hopes of breaking down Tottenham.

Kane

The England captain got on the scoresheet during the week with an excellent header. He looks set to have his best season in the final third, both in terms of goals and assists. Kane has 11 goals and 11 assists in the Premier League. His returns have slowed down recently, but he looks set for another rich period in front of goal with two goals and one assist in the last two Premier League matches. Sheffield United will be tough to break down. Despite their lowly league position, they are rarely dominated and it will be tough for Tottenham to create clear cut openings on Sunday. This is why Kane will be vital as he can create chances for others and he has the clinical edge himself. Against a side that won’t push up too high, he is the one more likely to cause damage.

Team news

Enda Stevens, George Baldock, Oli McBurnie and Jack Robinson are all doubts for the home side.

Steven Bergwijn is available for the visitors. Gareth Bale will be hoping to feature after a minor squad role in recent weeks, while Giovani Lo Celso remains on the sidelines.

Verdict

Sheffield United come into the match with confidence and that will be the first time this season. That makes them a dangerous opponent for Tottenham, especially if Wilder manages to get the players to match the intensity they showed against Newcastle. That said, the Blades still have issues in attack as they had to rely on a penalty to win during the week. Tottenham will be tougher to break down and they will come with a point to prove. Spurs should have enough to take three points.

Sheffield United 0-2 Tottenham