StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

The FoxDen Forum : Powered by vBulletin version 2.3.0 The FoxDen Forum > Sports Handicapping, Trends, and Stats > Premier League, Bundesliga, Weekend Soccer
Search The Fox Den Forum:

Subscribe to this Thread
Pages (3): « 1 [2] 3 »

Last Message   Next Message
    
Author
Message    Post A Reply
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

La Liga

It’s first against third in Spain as Barcelona aim to bounce back from the heartache of their Champions League exit against a Valencia side with five wins in a row. There’s a battle for Europa League spots too when Sevilla host Villarreal in Saturday’s early-kick, with just two points and one place separating the sides in seventh and sixth, while Deportivo and Las Palmas must win to avoid being well and truly cut adrift at the bottom with Malaga.

Old Post 04-14-18 02:40 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Bundesliga

Bayern may have wrapped up a sixth successive title last week but there’s still plenty to play for beneath them, not least between Schalke and Borussia Dortmund, who face off in the Revierderby on Sunday. Elsewhere Leverkusen vs Frankfurt is the pick of the bunch the day before, between fourth and fifth in the scrap for a Champions League berth.

Old Post 04-14-18 02:40 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

GOOOOAAAALLLLLLLLL

keep rolling Southampton

Old Post 04-14-18 02:48 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

following the money here

SOC [200094] CRYSTAL PALACE -112
SOC [200090] HUDDERSFIELD TOWN +168

Old Post 04-14-18 03:04 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

not a good last 5 for me

Old Post 04-14-18 03:04 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
isdativan
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 1328

Germany

Koln o2.5
Leverkusen o2.5

Englang

Watford o2

Russia

Zenit -1.5




I'm like a walking accident.
Everywhere I go, I wreck.

Old Post 04-14-18 03:11 PM
isdativan is offline Click Here to See the Profile for isdativan Click here to Send isdativan a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Traderpro
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 4375

Saturday Premier League

5* Swansea vs Everton O 2.5 (+140)

Swansea has perception of being punchless,but a good part of that perception is based on early season results.Swansea is actually averaging 2.2 GPG in last 10 overall home matches and if you extract 2 shutouts to Tottenham in that span,its much better.Plus,if you are looking to ramp up offensive numbers, Everton is perfect target.Everton has allowed close to 2 GPG in last 10 road games and has scored 1+ goals in 7 of last 10 road games.I think we see 2-2 or 3-2 here. GL

Old Post 04-14-18 03:13 PM
Traderpro is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Traderpro Click here to Send Traderpro a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

isdativan

i'm on both Bundesliga totals
GL

Old Post 04-14-18 03:18 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

this is getting hammered

SOC [202489] TOTAL o3-114 (HAMBURG SV vrs HOFFENHEIM)

Old Post 04-14-18 03:23 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

gut punch

SOC [200082] SOUTHAMPTON +½ +104......L
SOC [200094] CRYSTAL PALACE -112
SOC [200090] HUDDERSFIELD TOWN +168
SOC [202489] TOTAL o3-114 (HAMBURG SV vrs HOFFENHEIM)

Old Post 04-14-18 03:24 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

for those that have asked , we'll be back at the South Point April 27-29

Old Post 04-14-18 03:28 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
HoustonFan
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 6159

I will join in on Huddlesfield, CP and the Swansea/Everton Over




"Just Got Paid" -- ZZ Top
2008,2009 NCAA HOF Battle of the Brackets Champion

Old Post 04-14-18 03:49 PM
HoustonFan is offline Click Here to See the Profile for HoustonFan Click here to Send HoustonFan a Private Message Edit post   Report post
isdativan
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 1328

England
Manchester City o3

Spain
Real Sociedad -111




I'm like a walking accident.
Everywhere I go, I wreck.

Old Post 04-14-18 05:36 PM
isdativan is offline Click Here to See the Profile for isdativan Click here to Send isdativan a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Traderpro
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 4375

Down the stretch they come in Premier, some really good draw potential for all these games .

Old Post 04-14-18 05:41 PM
Traderpro is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Traderpro Click here to Send Traderpro a Private Message Edit post   Report post
HoustonFan
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 6159

Two out of three. Thanks gents.




"Just Got Paid" -- ZZ Top
2008,2009 NCAA HOF Battle of the Brackets Champion

Old Post 04-14-18 06:08 PM
HoustonFan is offline Click Here to See the Profile for HoustonFan Click here to Send HoustonFan a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

2-2 +0.54

SOC [200082] SOUTHAMPTON +½ +104......L
SOC [200094] CRYSTAL PALACE -112...........W
SOC [200090] HUDDERSFIELD TOWN +168...W
SOC [202489] TOTAL o3-114 (HAMBURG SV vrs HOFFENHEIM)....L

YTD
44-30-6 +36.72

Old Post 04-14-18 06:40 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

LA Galaxy at Chicago Fire (Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Chicago +126, LA Galaxy +232, Draw +255

The Galaxy lost last weekend but public bettors are hopping right back on board with nearly 60% of the moneyline wagers. Despite the lopsided ticket action, books like Pinnacle and 5Dimes have slightly shifted the line toward Chicago.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic has come off the bench in both games for LA thus far and it’s likely that will be the case on Saturday, too. The Galaxy still have plenty of issues defensively and I’m not keen on backing a side that hasn’t figured that out yet. I like Chicago to win here but don’t love the odds– if public bettors can move this line up to Fire +150 then I’d bite.

Old Post 04-14-18 08:02 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

For English fans, the concept of Saturday night football is a real novelty, so make sure you pencil this one into your diaries, at 2:45 p.m. ET Tottenham host Manchester City with the aim of delaying the title celebrations for at least another week.

Even though City are on the verge of wrapping up the Premier League title, it’s the home team that enters this weekend’s headliner in higher spirits — and by some margin — after a catastrophic week for the leaders in what was undoubtedly the most important string of matches in the club’s season.

The chance to not only progress to the final four of the Champions League but also to reclaim their league crown on home soil against fiercest rival Manchester United were both passed up by Pep Guardiola’s side. It’s a period that, for all of their previous dominance, will live long in the memory of the fans and manager in particular.

It seems unthinkable that the Citizens would bottle the title now, but it has been a damaging spell nonetheless, and this particular fixture has come at a very bad time. Indeed, while a defeat would surely only set back the inevitable, a fourth loss in a row would still put a real damper on what has been a truly remarkable campaign.

It’s not an unprecedented position for their esteemed manager to be in either. Guardiola lost four matches in succession while he was in charge at Bayern Munich in 2015, and the odds indicate that a repeat is by no means out of the question.

Tight Odds
While most bookmakers have the visitors to London this weekend as very marginal favorites, William Hill can’t split the sides — both priced at 2.62 (+162) — which is all but unheard of when Manchester City are involved.

There’s a reason why Tottenham shouldn’t be written off, that’s for sure, with Mauricio Pochettino’s men on their longest league winning streak all season (six games) and they are unbeaten in their last 14 league matches. It’s a long time since the words “Wembley hoodoo” were uttered after all, with Spurs taking to their temporary surrounds in superb fashion following a poor start to the season.
Spurs Are Hot
Ten wins and two draws, a run that includes seven clean sheets, in their last 12 league matches at the historic national stadium prove that Tottenham have well and truly adjusted to the hallowed turf. Over that span, Spurs have defeated Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal, and the defeat to Chelsea in their first home game of the campaign remains their only home loss in the league.

Factor in that Tottenham are actually fighting for positions as opposed to the runaway leaders, along with the fact that City would have preferred to be crowned champions at The Etihad, and Tottenham’s narrowed underdog status might be a little unwarranted.

Spurs players certainly represent better value in the goal-scorer markets, with Harry Kane — fresh from being awarded the most dubious of goals from the dubious goals panel — the obvious choice. However, with odds as far out as 4.20 (+320) and 4.40 (+340) on Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen, respectively, both in good form, there’s potentially a tasty profit to be made in exploiting a fragile defense.

City Are Not
There’s a sense that Manchester City’s hectic schedule is catching up with them, and their lapse in recent weeks has been a result of dips in concentration, energy and performance levels within matches. Indeed, while their goal threat has dwindled somewhat of late overall, with 13 goals in eight games since winning the Carabao Cup back in February, Guardiola’s men have scored just two second-half strikes in that time, with the latest of those coming in the 50th minute at relegation-bound Stoke courtesy of David Silva. Their second-half goal difference over said matches is -5.

Betting Angles
Moreover, over the last 12 meetings between these sides, 15 of Tottenham’s 20 goals have been scored after the interval, and in contrast to their visitors, Spurs have been ending matches strongly for some time.

Indeed, up to and including a late, late show at Anfield at the start of February, 12 of the Whites’ last 15 league goals have come in the second half.

With all that in mind, the second-half markets would be my tip for this one, with no shortage of late drama and goalmouth action when these two have come to blows. There have been 34 second-half goals in their last 12 meetings (2.83 per game), so a price of 1.86 (-116) on over 1.5 goals after the interval looks like a smart bet to me.

Meanwhile if it’s a higher price you are after, while I’m not quite brave enough to back a fourth consecutive Manchester City defeat outright, odds of 2.88 (+188) with Unibet on Tottenham to win the second half are long enough to take my fancy.

Old Post 04-14-18 08:08 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Tottenham vs. Manchester City stats: What you need to know
Time: Saturday, April 14, 19:45 GMT

Venue: Wembley Stadium

Manchester City have scored at least two goals in 21 of their last 25 matches in the Premier League
Tottenham have won their last six Premier League matches
Manchester City have not lost back-to-back Premier League games this season
Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in their last four home matches in the Premier League
Team News:

Tottenham: Harry Kane returned to the starting lineup at the weekend after nearly a month sidelined due to an ankle injury. Harry Winks (ankle) will also miss the game.

Manchester City: Sergio Aguero (knee) returned last week after missing out for a month. Benjamin Mendy closes in on a first-team return, having been out since September due to a cruciate knee ligament injury.

Inwhat has been a blue period for Manchester City recently after what has been overall a very successful season.

Their away humiliation to Liverpool in the Champions League followed by their loss to local rivals Manchester United was the first time that Pep’s men had lost two games in a row all season.

Yet whilst their European loss has put a major dent in their chances of making a Champions League semi-final, it would be foolish to write City off.
Depending on how you look at it, they could also count themselves unlucky against Manchester United. A 3-2 loss after being 2-0 up sounds like a side who capitulated, particularly as it would have won them the title against their fiercest rivals.

Yet Manchester City’s expected goals tally stood at 3.42 to Manchester United’s 0.98. If it wasn’t for some clinical finishing from United, and how wasteful City were in the first half, City could be going to Wembley already crowned as champions.

Most believed that the last few weeks would be Tottenham’s biggest test of the Premier League season, as 24 goal man Harry Kane sat on the sidelines due to injury.

They seemed to be thin for alternative options up top, particularly after how disappointing Fernando Llorente has been since making the move to the capital in the summer.

Three wins without their star man, including an impressive 3-1 away win against London rivals Chelsea is a testament to how well Tottenham have reacted without their goalscorer. Creative midfielder Christian Eriksen has hit form in front of goal, scoring five in his last three games, meanwhile Dele Alli has notched two of his own.

A concern For Mauricio Pochettino may be the form of his number one. Only Petr Cech (6) has made more errors leading to goals than Hugo Lloris (5), with two coming in the last two weeks against Stoke and Chelsea.

Tottenham vs. Manchester City betting: Where is the value?
Whilst Manchester City have conceded the fewest goals in the Premier League this season, their recent efforts against Manchester United and Liverpool have highlighted holes in their defensive lines.

Their best defensive skill is their possession stats; on average they have 66.4% of the ball in the Premier League. With the ball, the need to defend diminishes.

When their defence is tested however, the last few weeks have shown how little protection it has. With Kane back in the side, Tottenham will fancy their chances of testing that defence on Saturday.

It is at the other end of the pitch that Manchester City can be so lethal however. The Citizens have scored at least two goals in nine of their last 11 Premier League games. Meanwhile, Tottenham have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last three games. The game most certainly points to goals, and over 2.75 odds of 1.800* could offer value.

Tottenham have been drawing at halftime in five of their last six Premier League matches and with City’s focus on the Champions League game in the week, could catch Pep’s men weaker than usual. Spurs first half handicap at 0 of 1.869* covers a first-half draw and if Tottenham can use their extra break to their advantage.

Old Post 04-14-18 08:08 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Columbus Crew at DC United (Saturday 7 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Columbus +164, DC United +183, Draw +243

Columbus were a bit unlucky last week to lose at Chicago, 1-0, since they conceded only one shot on target the entire match. It resulted in the second loss for the Crew this season, but they still boast a healthy 3W-1D-2L record.

DC United had very low expectations heading in to the year, and they haven’t even met those yet. They’re one of three winless teams (along with Seattle and Portland) and have just two points in five matches.

To no surprise, all the early betting action came in on the Crew in this one — Columbus opened +203 but have been bet down to +164. While there’s tons of public support on Columbus, it’s clear they’ve attracted sharp action as well.

DC United will have the desperation factor working for them, as well as being at home. They’ve been a bit unlucky this year but still aren’t a great team and I can’t back them to win. The value play to fade the public here is the draw at +245 odds, one of the better chances for DC United to get a point this season.

Old Post 04-14-18 10:54 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Post A Reply
  
Pages (3): « 1 [2] 3 »   Last Message   Next Message

Quick Links: