Like this guy's draw play.

Minnesota United at Portland Timbers (Saturday 10:30 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Portland -236, Minnesota +657, Draw +424

After a couple of early wins, Minnesota United have not been good, and haven’t scored in their last two games. Portland had high expectations before the season but they’re still searching for their first victory (two draws, three losses). In a match between two disappointing clubs, oddsmakers clearly favor Portland to get the win.

Although -236 seems like a high line, it’s certainly justified in this case. Public bettors are taking the bait on Minnesota (+657) with more than 40% of moneyline tickets, so this is a prime spot to fade the masses. I wouldn’t bet Portland -236 straight up, but they’re worthy of including in a parlay.

Houston Dynamo at San Jose Earthquakes (Saturday 10:30 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: San Jose +123, Houston +224, Draw +272

San Jose had a 1-0 lead in the first half at Philadelphia last weekend but couldn’t hang on and drew, 1-1. They come into Saturday’s match healthy but will be missing defender Harold Cummings due to a red-card suspension.

Houston benefits from having last weekend off, but they’ll also be without a defender due to a red-card suspension (DaMarcus Beasley).

Around the betting market, there’s been a little bit of line movement toward Houston, but nothing significant.

Newcastle have come alive at just the right time. The Toon have won three matches in a row moving them into the top half of the table and 10 points off relegation with six matches to play. This hot streak has comfortably pushed Rafa Benitez’s men out of the relegation picture and into the safety of mid-table. At this point, Benitez’s side can relax, but they would love a win against Arsenal to push them over the 40 point mark.

Arsenal advanced through to the semi-finals of the Europa League on Thursday after a 2-2 draw on Thursday led to a 6-3 aggregate win over CSKA Moscow. The Gunners focus is squarely on the Europa League at this point, so that could affect their performance on this match against Newcastle. They have also been completely incompetent away from home this season. Arsenal have lost their last four away matches in the Premier League and have only taken 13 points from 15 Premier League away matches all season.

TEAM NEWS
Newcastle will continue to be without Jesus Gamez with an ankle injury. Outside of that, Newcastle should have a totally fit side, according to transfermarkt.com

Arsenal will be without David Ospina, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, and Santi Cazorla with ankle, knee, and Achilles injuries respectively, according to Physioroom.com. They could also be without Granit Xhaka after he missed the trip to Moscow through illness. The Gunners will have Mohammed Elneny after his red card against Southampton was overturned by the FA.


KEY PLAYERS
Newcastle United: Ayoze Perez

Newcastle’s last two matches have both been decided by one goal and Perez has got the winner in both of them. The Spaniard has contributed to eight goals this season, tied with Dwight Gayle for the team lead. The big problem with Newcastle this season has been that they have lacked offensive firepower, but Perez has been about as close to an offensive threat as they have and him coming into form is great for them.

Arsenal: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

Arsenal’s focus may be on the Europa League, but Aubameyang’s ineligibility for the competition means he is only focused on the Premier League. He has got off to a red-hot start in the competition, scoring six goals in his first seven appearances. Aubameyang earned a reputation as one of the best strikers in Europe at Borussia Dortmund and is proving himself to be just that at Arsenal. The Gunners may be incompetent away from home, but a great striker can cover up a lot of problems.

PREDICTION
Arsenal are a more talented team than Newcastle, but their away record over the last 12 months or so indicates that they cannot be trusted to beat teams away from home at this point in time. Combine that with the Toon’s good run of form and it makes it difficult to pick the more talented team to win this one.

Prediction: 2-1 win for Newcastle

Arsenal at Newcastle betting breakdown

19% on Newcastle (+210)
67% on Arsenal (+140)
14% on Draw (+255)

There are a number of huge games across Europe on Sunday, including in Italy’s Serie A, where the top two teams — Juventus and Napoli — face tough matchups against sides chasing top-six finishes in Sampdoria and A.C. Milan, respectively. There is, however, no doubt that the biggest game in Italy is the Derby della Capitale (2:45 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff) between Lazio and Roma at Stadio Olimpico.

Clubs Going in Opposite Directions
The two Rome rivals are tied with 60 points, with Lazio in third place, one spot ahead of Roma in goal differential. And while the standings are tight, the contrast in morale between the two camps couldn’t be more stark after the sides were on opposite ends of huge upsets this week.

On Tuesday, Roma came back from a 4-1 first-leg deficit against Barcelona to reach the Champions League semifinals with a 3-0 win that will go down in the club’s history. Lazio, on the other hand, were on the wrong end of an unexpected late rally from Austrian club Salzburg, which knocked them out of the Europa League. The Italian side led 4-2 after an eventful first leg and stretched their advantage in the second half before Salzburg netted four goals in 20 minutes to complete a remarkable comeback.

It’s not just the psychological implications that Lazio must overcome in the derby this weekend, but the extra physical fatigue of playing two days later than their neighbors. The outright odds haven’t quite taken both factors into account, and while Roma — nominally the away side despite sharing a home at the Stadio Olimpico — are narrow favorites, odds of 2.65 (+165) from Marathon Bet on Roma to win still represent good value.

Big Stage
Roma have had the better of the most recent meetings between the sides, winning five of the last six in the league. And while neither is in particularly sparkling form in Serie A in general, Roma have fared far better in big matches such as this one.

Indeed, Lazio are winless in their last five against fellow top-six sides, losing four, and they’ve won just once at home against sides currently in the top half of Serie A. Roma, by comparison, have won five of their eight away games against teams in the top 10 thus far, and four of their last five away from home in total.

Prop Markets
For a more specific market, I would look into the goal times between two sides that will be emotionally and physically drained. Both clubs know the way to goal, that’s for sure. Lazio are actually the league’s top scorers with 75 goals going into the weekend, and tired defenders will surely leave spaces to exploit late in the game.

The fixture has featured plenty of late excitement in recent years, with drama assured until the very end. Ten of the last 22 meetings between the two have seen goals scored in the 85th minute or later, while only two have failed to see a goal scored after the hour mark.

Of the 63 goals scored in said matches, 44 (70%) have been scored after halftime, while 18 (29%) have been scored in the 75th minute or later. Betway offers a market for the final goal to be scored from that point onwards, and even money is certainly a tempting bet. However, the best option in my mind, given the recent record between the two and the circumstances heading into this game, is on the highest-scoring half being the second, with an excellent price of 2.10 (+110) with both Paddy Power and Betfair.

this is getting some nice movement

SOC [201329] TOTAL o2½-115 (BENEVENTO vrs SASSUOLO)

YTD
44-30-6 +36.72

Champions League hangover for Roma? They're getting 75% of public bets but have moved from +146 to +196 since opening at Lazio.

Can cellar dwellers West Brom pull off the upset over Manchester United at Old Trafford? They opened +2060, now +1700

SOC [201329] TOTAL o2½-115 (BENEVENTO vrs SASSUOLO)............W

YTD
45-30-6 +37.72

for the heads up on west brom

2* Seattle +418 vs Sporting KC

Ok,I am clearly not advocating a large wager here on a team as miserable in form as Seattle.But I am largely a situational type handicapper and Seattle I am sure will play with some desperation and Sporting KC has had some defensive issues and 3 of 4 wins are against teams with a cumulative record of 2-8-5.I also lean Under here, but +418 is too hard to pass here. GL

Seattle Sounders at Sporting Kansas City (Sunday 4 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Sporting KC -135, Seattle +432, Draw +281

Sporting KC just beat LA Galaxy on the road and are coming off back-to-back clean sheet victories. With four wins and 13 points, they sit atop the table in the Western Conference. However, they needed goalie Tim Melia to make a plethora of big saves against the Galaxy and could have easily conceded multiple goals.

The Seattle Sounders are still pointless this year and have lost all three matches without scoring a goal. They’ve also been red carded three times already, which is almost unheard of. Surely no reason to back the Sounders here, right?

This line should be in the -200 range, but MLS is a strange league that doesn’t always make sense. Sporting KC at -135 seems too easy, especially with Seattle missing some key components (Jordan Morris, Clint Dempsey, Osvaldo Alonso, Kelvin Leerdam). All signs point to Sporting KC getting the win, but I’m going ultra-contrarian and taking Seattle +0.5 goals (+125).

West Brom (+1700) over Manchester United is the biggest Premier League upset that we've tracked in our database since 2012.

At least I did not get skunked. Not a good soccer weekend

Fri
LAFC/Vancouver O3 -109..L

Sat
Columbus/DC - Draw +240...L
Houston/San Jose U3 -121...L

Sun
NYFC/Atl O3 -125...W

Total
10-14
-3.08 units

Monday Bundesliga

4* Mainz vs Freiburg Draw +225

This in my opinion is best Draw prospect of weekend. These 2 teams have putrid attacks as they have combined for 4 goals over last 12 combined goals with 6 of those 12 concluding in Draws! That is 50% Draws over that span,so this number is generous as this game could easily end 0-0 or 1-1. Under -165,so shows strong suspicion scoring will be low.I usually only go 2* on Draws ,but Draws are about 30% of results in this league and these teams are trending Draw quite heavily. GL