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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Premier League teams are still making player transfers before the season kicks off, but sportsbooks around the market have released O/U point totals for all 20 clubs.
Last season went as expected with Manchester City winning the league and Manchester United finishing second, both going over their preseason point totals. Arsenal and Chelsea fell below their preseason point totals but both finished in the top six, while Tottenham and Liverpool slightly exceeded expectations to finish third and fourth, respectively.
Based on the expected point totals, the top six in order should be:
Manchester City
Liverpool
Manchester United
Tottenham
Chelsea
Arsenal
Manchester City are -150 favorites to win the league, and their season point total is listed at 84.5, eight higher than Liverpool’s.
The gap from the top six to everyone else is significant, but that’s been the trend over the last 10+ seasons. Arsenal’s point total is listed at 69.5 while Newcastle are Leicester City are next on the list at 52.5.
Newly promoted Cardiff City (32.5) have the lowest expectations, and they’re also the favorites to be relegated. They’re projected to be joined by Huddersfield and Fulham.
Oddsmakers are far more confident in newly promoted Wolverhampton’s ability to stay in the Premier League with an O/U of 39.5 and juice heavily on the over (-230). I do like their chances of getting 40+ points this season if you can find a better number.
One club that I think could struggle to reach their total is Burnley (44.5). A lot went their way last season and they still got to only 54, and with an added Europa League schedule on tap, they look like a solid bet to land under the total.
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07-28-18 08:22 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Arsenal 2018-19 Premier League Betting Odds
To Win Title: +2500
To Be Relegated: +50000
Point Total: 69.5 (over -155/under +125)
Arsenal enter the 2018-19 season with a new manager for the first time in 22 years, with Unai Emery replacing Arsene Wenger. A popular comparison to the current situation is when Manchester United’s longtime manager Sir Alex Ferguson retired after 26 seasons, but it’s not quite the same. Arsenal have been long overdue for a change, while United were still winning titles upon Ferguson’s departure.
Arsenal’s upper management also made a bunch of early and necessary player signings over the summer, which is another change of pace from recent seasons:
Tranfers IN: Lucas Torreira (midfielder from Sampdoria), Stephan Lichtsteiner (defender from Juventus), Bernd Leno (goalie from Bayer Leverkusen), Sokratis Papastathopoulos (defender from Borussia Dortmund), Matteo Guendouzi (midfielder from Lorient).
Torreira will be the most vital signing to the success of the club. He’s a young, tough and tenacious defensive midfielder who made a big impact for Uruguay at the World Cup. Lichtsteiner and Papastathopoulos will provide experience, leadership and depth on the backline, while Leno will aim to compete for the starting goalkeeper spot. Guendouzi may not get into the first team, but he’s a confident young player to keep an eye on for the future.
Over the summer, Arsenal only lost Jack Wilshere (to West Ham) and Santi Cazorla (to Villarreal) from the main squad. Wilshere had been a longtime Gunner despite being just 26, but injuries hampered him throughout his career. Unfortunately for Cazorla, another fan favorite, he’s also dealt with serious injuries, and his career has been stalled for two years due to 11 operations on his Achilles/foot.
Expectations
The existing Arsenal squad is full of talent with the likes of Mesut Özil, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Alexandre Lacazette, Alex Iwobi, Héctor Bellerín and Henrikh Mkhitaryan, to name a few. If there’s a glaring weakness, it could be at center back, with longtime stalwart Laurent Koscielny (Achilles) already set to miss a big portion of the season.
Fans should be optimistic heading into the year and not as divided as they were toward the end of Wenger’s reign. Even staunch fans of the longtime manager can recognize that the club needed to make a change to really start pushing forward again. Methods became stale, especially against top clubs, and the Gunners even fell out of qualification for Champions League for the first time in 19 years. The arrival of Emery will force opponents to adjust against Arsenal, something they’ve rarely had to do lately.
Expectations should be a top-four finish, which would qualify for Champions League the following season, even though the odds of that happening are +200. The other two goals should be to win a major trophy in the Europa League and/or FA Cup. Arsenal’s odds to win the Europa League are +900 and FA Cup +1000, so they should be right in the thick of both.
A more counterattacking and pace-driven style, rather than just holding possession and condensing the field, should keep opponents on their toes in all competitions. Emery also likes his teams to press hard, and they brought in the right players to do that.
The Bet To Watch
As much as I’d love to have a future bet at plus-money to offer, I think the real value on Arsenal is to finish in the top six at -350 odds (SkyBet). Arsenal lost 13 league matches in a difficult 2017-18 campaign, yet they still finished nine points ahead of Burnley for sixth place in the table.
This season, Arsenal’s point total is listed at 69.5, which would land them in sixth place again, but consider the gap. Next on the list is Leicester City at 51.5, a full 18 points and six wins behind. I don’t envision another surprise title run from them, and even an overperformance from another middle-of-the-pack squad likely won’t crack the top six.
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08-04-18 12:40 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Chelsea 2018-19 Premier League Betting Odds
To Win Title: +1400
To Be Relegated: +50000
Point Total: 70.5 (Over -170/Under +140)
Chelsea are a very different team than they were last season. Antonio Conte is out and Maurizio Sarri is in. The two Italians couldn’t be further apart on the tactical spectrum. Conte was all about defense and strict positioning. He built a side that maintained their defensive structure at all costs. They were difficult to break down, but, as they often left attacking to only two players, could struggle to score. In Conte’s first season, that problem didn’t rear its ugly head, and they won the title. In his second it did, and the team finished fifth.
Sarri, on the other hand, joins Chelsea from Napoli, where he managed a swashbuckling attacking side, one that was committed to moving the ball in midfield and building attacks that pulled opposing defenses out of position. His defensive line played high, his midfielders had freedom to move all over the field — both vertically and horizontally — and his forwards relentlessly attacked the opponent’s goal. It’s a complete stylistic 180.
At the moment, Chelsea are favored to do a little better, with the price on over 70.5 points coming in at -170 (5Dimes). That probably has something to do with the addition of Jorginho, who followed Sarri from Napoli.
Chelsea struggled at times to find a solid pairing for defensive superstar N’Golo Kante last season. Cesc Fabregas didn’t bring enough defensive work to the table, and Tiemoue Bakayoko didn’t bring enough skill on the ball. Jorginho fits the complementary role perfectly. He’s both a metronomic passer and a defensive presence, able to help a team exert control over a game with or without the ball.
Chelsea’s midfield might be more settled than those of past seasons, but their attack remains very much in flux. The transfer rumors are swirling around star winger Eden Hazard as Real Madrid look to replace Cristiano Ronaldo. Hazard’s opposite, Willian, is apparently sought after by his old manager Jose Mourinho at Manchester United, and Chelsea have been making eyes at Juventus striker Gonzalo Higuain, hoping that the 30-year-old star, who was managed by Sarri at Napoli, has a few great years left in him.
Bet to Watch
A front three of Hazard, Alvaro Morata and Willian is formidable. And it’s certainly reasonable to take the short odds and the over on Chelsea based on the assumption that those three will power the attack. But the more that attack gets upended, the more uncertain Chelsea’s future becomes. If Chelsea hold onto those three players, I would take the Over 70.5 points.
Despite Higuain’s track record, it’s not at all clear that he will be better this season than Morata will be at 25. Hazard could fetch Chelsea a lot of money, but it seems unlikely they’d be able to reinvest it before the transfer window closes on opening day. Willian, who turns 30 on Aug. 9, is the best candidate to leave, but as with Hazard, as the deadline approaches it gets harder and harder to replace lost talent, even if a sale makes sense on its own merit.
Ultimately, while it’s clear Chelsea will be very different this season, whether or not they will be better is still a very open question. If Sarri can deploy Hazard, Morata and Willian, then it’s a good bet to expect them to improve on last season. If they don’t, they’ll struggle to match even last season’s somewhat disappointing results.
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08-05-18 07:04 PM |
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