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Rebel Stakes Betting Odds
Location: Oaklawn Park, Hot Springs, Ark.
Purse: $1 million
Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Post time: 6:23 p.m. ET
TV coverage: Fox Sports 2

Everything has pretty much gone quiet around the sports world, but the road to the Kentucky Derby continues Saturday with the running of the $1 million Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

The Grade II race is worth 50 points to the winner and a place in the starting gate for the annual “Run for the Roses” on May 2 at Churchill Downs in Lexington, Ky. The runner-up will get 20 Derby points, followed by 10 points for third and five for fourth.

The day’s racing coverage will begin at 3 p.m. ET on America’s Day at the Races on Fox Sports 2, with post time for the Rebel scheduled for 6:23 p.m. ET.

Several top 3-year-old horses and their connections are taking a shot in Oaklawn’s featured race, highlighted by the entry of California shipper Nadal. The Bob Baffert-trained charge has won both of his career starts out west and opened as the 5-2 morning-line favorite.

Baffert has won the Rebel six times during his illustrious career, with his most memorable triumph coming with 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh.

1 — Nadal (5-2): The race favorite triumphed in his maiden debut back in January and followed up that convincing victory in the San Vicente Stakes ai Santa Anita Park. Most impressive was the fact he improved on his Equibase Speed Figures in those wins, going from 102 to 107 in those sprint races. Cream of the crop.

2 — Excession (30-1): Trainer Steve Asmussen has three horses in the field and this is the weakest of the group. Tyler Baze will ride this horse, who finished seventh and eighth in his only two stakes races. Look elsewhere.

3 — Basin (3-1): Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano will climb aboard the colt, who is making his 3-year-old campaign debut. Basin won the Runhappy Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga Race Course back in September, but has been on the shelf since. Basin should be part of the pace at the start for Asmussen and could be in the mix.

4 — Silver Prospector (7-2): The most-battled tested horse in the field, Asmussen’s best chance to win the Rebel has run eight times so far in his career. He is coming off a win over this course in the Southwest Stakes, which was the second stakes win of his career. Both of those wins have come around two turns and he boasts a win over the Oaklawn Park course. Live contender.

5 — No Parole (8-1): The Louisiana shipper won his last three starts by a combined 34 lengths, but looks to be up against it here. Expect him to go to the front at the start and battle Nadal and Basin for the early lead. Probably in too deep.

6 — Three Technique (7-2): Trainer Jeremiah Englehart sends out his contender, who gets Luis Saez in the reins. Saez, who recently won the $20 million Saudi Cup aboard Maximum Security, has a mount who has been laying the weeds and is primed for a big effort. He needs things to set up for him, but finding the winner’s circle for the sixth time in his career is not out of the realm of possibility.

7 — Coach Bahe (30-1): The longest shot on the board and rightfully so. He enters this race of a maiden score, but this is a whole different level of competition. The addition of Lasix could improve his chances.

8 — American Theorem (6-1): The bloodlines are with this horse, who is the son of American Pharaoh. Another one who seems to be up against it, but his family lineage will generate some action at the betting windows.

Nadal 3.80 4.00 3.20

Excession 37.00 10.60

Basin 4.40

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$1 Exacta 1 & 2 78.20

$0.10 Superfecta 1-2-3-6 139.24

$0.50 Trifecta 1-2-3 151.95

America's Day at the Races is on FS1 now

We have a great card at Fair Grounds, concluded with the Louisiana Derby. The Louisiana Derby is another prep race for the Kentucky Derby, which has been moved to the first Saturday of September.

Before we dive into Louisiana Derby Day, I want to quickly talk about why I’m focusing on Fair Grounds, other than the obvious presence of the Louisiana Derby.

When I’m deciding on where to focus my time, the first thing I look at is the stakes racing calendar. Stakes races are typically the classiest of all races, so it makes sense to start there. When not looking at stakes races, I try to avoid maiden claiming and low-level claiming races as much as possible and look for races that have higher purses (anything above $20K). A good indicator of an individual horse’s class or potential class, is the sire, dam and dam’s sir, as well as the previous race types.

We have a great card at Fair Grounds, concluded with the Louisiana Derby. The Louisiana Derby is another prep race for the Kentucky Derby, which has been moved to the first Saturday of September.

Before we dive into Louisiana Derby Day, I want to quickly talk about why I’m focusing on Fair Grounds, other than the obvious presence of the Louisiana Derby.

When I’m deciding on where to focus my time, the first thing I look at is the stakes racing calendar. Stakes races are typically the classiest of all races, so it makes sense to start there. When not looking at stakes races, I try to avoid maiden claiming and low-level claiming races as much as possible and look for races that have higher purses (anything above $20K). A good indicator of an individual horse’s class or potential class, is the sire, dam and dam’s sir, as well as the previous race types.

Louisiana Derby Betting Picks and Preview
The Louisiana Derby is the 12th and final race on Saturday’s card at Fair Grounds, with a 5:49 p.m. ET post time.

Sixteen horses have been entered into the race with two of them being ‘also-eligibles’ (AE). The Louisiana Derby is interesting because the prep race that leads up to it, The Risen Star, was split into two races, therefore we have to look at both of those races to really understand this field.

No. 10 Enforceable
Odds: 7-2

Enforceable is trained by Mark Casse, and Julien Leparoux gets the mount for the third time. Sired by Tapit, Enforceable has eight lifetime starts with two wins, two seconds and two thirds. In his most recent start, one of the two versions of the Risen Star, he finished second behind Mr. Monomoy by 2.5 lengths. He was caught wide the entire race and just didn’t have enough to get to the winner.

No. 3 Wells Bayou
Odds: 8-1

Wells Bayou is trained by Brad Cox with Florent Geroux aboard. These two have teamed up 35 times over the last 60 days and are winning at a 29% clip.

Wells Bayou is sired by Lookin at Lee, who won the 2010 Preakness Stakes and is out of a Hard Spun dam. He finished a length back of Silver Prospector in the G3 Southwest Stakes in his last start. He has the fastest speed rating in the race and both of his wins have come over an off track, which is important to note as the forecast calls for scattered thunderstorms.

His front running style should help him, especially if it’s an off track, though the question is, will he get in a speed duel. He is also tied for the high race rating and racing speed average.

Similar to Enforceable, Wells Bayou has significantly improved in his two starts since his layoff. Look for him to continue to improve here based on his running style, the Cox/Geroux combo and a horse who has shown he can run, regardless of the surface type.

No. 13 Silver Slate
Odds: 6-1

With Silver Slate we have the team of Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. and owner Winchell Thoroughbreds. Asmussen and Winchell have had numerous successful horses, but none more successful than champion Gun Runner.

As for Silver Slate, he has never missed the board having one win, two seconds and one third-place finish from four career starts. He has also been the post-time favorite in three of his four starts and has never gone off at odds higher than 3-1.

This is important to note as Asmussen wins at 26% when sending out a beaten favorite and Silver Slate was the post-time favorite in the Risen Star.

Silver Slate ran in the more competitive Risen Star, finishing third behind Mr. Monomoy and Enforceable, in his most recent start. He had plenty of excuses though as he was caught 3-wide on the first turn and 3-5 wide on the second turn.

Looking at the workout tab, he’s worked four times since the Risen Star, putting up a bullet 6-furlong work in 1:11.6 on March 9. Silver Slate is sired by Hard Spun and is out of a stakes winning Empire Maker dam.

No. 4 Chestertown
Odds: 15-1

Another Asmussen horse, Chestertown was an expensive purchase for West Point Thoroughbreds, going for $2M in the OBS March Sale in 2019. He is sired by Tapit and out of stakes winning dam.

Similar to Silver Slate, Chestertown has never missed the board in his four career starts. Just like his stablemate, he has one win, two seconds and one third, but has not faced the competition up to this point that Silver Slate has.

His lone win came in a state-bred maiden victory back in December at Aqueduct. Since then he has two second-place finishes in OC50K non-winners of 1 races at Fair Grounds, missing by just a neck in his most recent start.

Although it’s a big step up in class, with the amount of pace expected in this race, his running style fits well here. He has been the post-time favorite in each of this four career starts, which has a lot to do with his purchase price.

But as we noted with Silver Slate, Asmussen has a 26% win percentage with beaten favorites. In addition, Chestertown gets the Hall of Famer, Johnny Velazquez aboard and similar to his stablemate, he put up a bullet work over 6F on March 9th.

At 15-1 he’s definitely one to include in both horizontal and vertical exotics.

No. 11 NY Traffic
Odds: 15-1

NY Traffic got passed late in the Risen Star that was won by Modernist.

He won’t have to get the same distance that he tried for in the Risen Star and is getting blinkers on, suggesting that they want to ensure he gets the lead and stays focused.

Additionally, NY Traffic will be getting Luis Saez back aboard, after Javier Castellano had the mount in the Risen Star. Saez road NY Traffic to a six-and-three-quarter length win in his first start for trainer Saffie Joseph.

NY Traffic has posted three stellar workouts, the most recent being a bullet, since his last start. What he has going against him is his outside post position. Only 6% of horses breaking from outside of the 8-post have won during this meet at Fair Grounds.

Because of how hot the Saffie Joseph barn has been, the fact that he gets Saez back aboard and with the addition of blinkers, NY Traffic has a real chance to pull off a major upset if he can control the tempo up front.

Race 9: Sand Springs Stakes
Time: 3:34 p.m. ET

The race will be run at a mile over the turf course with the rail set at 60 feet.

My top pick for this race is the fittingly-named No. 12 Valedictorian (8-1). She’s trained by Kelly Breen and will have Paco Lopez in the irons. Paco had a record seven wins on last Saturday’s card at Gulfstream.

Valedictorian has 12 starts over the Gulfstream turf course with four wins, two seconds and a pair of thirds. Additionally, she has eight starts at the distance with three wins, one second and a third-place finish. One of her wins came in this exact race last year.

In her most recent start, the G3 Honey Fox, Valedictorian finished sixth to No. 7 Getmotherarose (6-1) by 5.5 lengths. That was Valedictorian’s first start after a five-month layoff and she showed some early speed, but faded late.

Breen sends out winners 22% of the time in their second start off the layoff and has a 23% win percentage in non-graded stakes races. Her early running style, combined with Breen’s good numbers in this spot earns Newspaperofrecord my top spot in this race.

Getmetotherarose is sired by Get Stormy and has five wins, two seconds and a pair of thirds from 14 career turf starts. As previously mentioned, she won her most recent start in the G3 Honey Fox right here at Gulfstream over the same distance.

Getmotherarose was able to overcome a troubled start to win by 1.5 lengths over Silver Kitten, who won easily on this track on Friday. An interesting stat is that Getmothertherose has only won in back-to-back starts once in her career and that dates back to June 2019, when she broke her maiden and then won next out in an allowance race. Since that time, she has won every other start, which would suggest that this isn’t going to be her race. That said, I am having too hard of a time throwing her out, so I’m going to include her.

With there being so much pace in this race, I have to include No. 2 Zofelle (9-2). She is the deep closer in the field, so she will need as much pace as she can get to run into. Since shipping over to the US in October of 2019, she has three wins from four career starts. Her only loss came in her most recent start where she finished fifth by 2.5 lengths in a non-graded stakes event at Fair Grounds.

Zofelle is trained by Brendan Walsh, who has won 27% of his races during the current meet. While I’m a fan of jockey Joel Rosario, who has the mount here, I don’t like the fact that Florent Geroux picks up another mount rather than staying with Zofelle, who he has rode the last three times.

Race 10: G3 Orchid
Time: 4:17 p.m. ET

The G3 Orchid is the first graded stakes race of the day and will be run over the turf course at 1 3/8 miles. While there are 12 runners, I’ve narrowed it down to three horses to consider for the Pick 6.

No. 6 Mean Mary (3-1) is the favorite and my top choice. She has four career turf starts with three wins and a second-place finish. Mean Mary is 2-for-2 over the Gulfstream Turf.

Trained by Graham Motion, Mean Mary will have Luiz Saez aboard. That’s good news as Saez has guided her to wins in her last two starts. She will compete for the pace with No. 12 Elizabeth Way (9-2), but if Mean Mary gets the lead and is able to control it, she should win as she’s continually improved her speed figures in each of her starts.

While she’s coming off a layoff, she won by five lengths in her most recent start against graded stakes company and in her win two back, beat No. 7 Cap de Creus (10-1) and No. 1 Beale Street (15-1). An argument could be made to single Mean Mary if you’re looking to cut down the price of your Pick 6 ticket.

Elizabeth Way is a perfect 2-for-2 since coming over to the US in January. She has shown versatility, winning from off the pace and in front-running style, but was made to run on the turf. Bred in Ireland, sired by the great Frankel out of a stakes winning Giant’s Causeway dam, Elizabeth Way has posted two workouts since her last start, both of them being bullet works. She’s one to include in the Pick 6.

Finally, we will look at No. 5 Gentle Ruler (7-2). She hasn’t been in the starting gate since finishing out her 2019 campaign with a record of six wins from seven starts and has been well-bet in every race of her career.

Trained by Ian Wilkes and ridden by his son-in-law, Chris Landeros, Gentle Ruler is coming off a five-month layoff. She has posted seven works since the beginning of February with a bullet workout over 5 furlongs in a blazing 57.45 seconds.

Her speed figures suggest that she’s going to need to take a step up in order to be competitive here and while there may be a family connection between trainer and jock, they haven’t teamed up for a win in their last 26 races together.

Race 11: G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks
Time: 4:49 p.m. ET

Similar to how the Florida Derby will guarantee the winner a spot in the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby, the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks will guarantee a spot in the Kentucky Oaks.

This is a rematch for No. 5 Spice Is Nice (3-1) and No 9. Tonalist Shape (5/2) after their battle in the G2 Davona Dale. Spice Is Nice is trained by Todd Pletcher and was supposed to have Javier Castellano aboard, but with him being out, will most likely have Luis Saez up. She finished a hard fought second, by 1 1/4 lengths, in the Davona Dale. It was only her second start, coming after an impressive maiden victory by 12 lengths.

Spice Is Nice is Triple Crown nominated and with the Kentucky Derby being pushed back, she will have additional opportunities to try and qualify if she so pleases, but first she will need to take care of business here. Sired by Curlin, Spice is Nice was purchased for $1.05M at the Keeneland 2018 sale. With the added experience of the Davona Dale under her belt, Spice Is Nice is going to be my top pick.

No. 9 Tonalist Shape comes into the Oaks a perfect 5-for-5. Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr.and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, she already has two graded stakes victories to her name. Other than the Davona Dale, she also won the G3 Forward Gal right here at Gulfstream and also put up the highest speed figure of any horse in the race, but it came back in November in a non-graded stakes race.

Saffie Joseph Jr. has had an incredible meet and Gaffalione has been his go-to jock. If there’s a knock against Tonalist Shape, it’s that she’s never stretched out past a mile, and while an extra 1/16th isn’t a lot of ground to add, it could change her approach.

Next we will take a look at the Godolphin homebred, No. 4 Lake Avenue (9-2). The Bill Mott trainee comes in with two wins and a second from four career starts. After breaking her maiden in her second career start, she stepped up to run in the G2 Demoiselle at Aqueduct where she drew clear by four lengths in the end.

Lake Avenue then had a three-month layoff, coming back earlier this month in a non-graded stakes event at Aqueduct where she ran a disappointing fourth. Bill Mott always finds a way to have his horses ready for the big races and this is no exception. While I’m sure it wasn’t always the plan to run her here, she stands a big chance at decent odds.

Finally, we have the longshot that I’m including, No. 7 Lucrezia (8-1). She is also a homebred by Edward Seltzer and Beverly Anderson. She is the daughter of Into Mischief out of a stakes-winning Rahy dam, Lucrezia has three wins and a second from five career starts. Two of her starts, including one win, came over the turf course, leaving her three starts with two wins and a second over the main track. This will be her first start at Gulfstream, but her early-running style should fit nicely here. Since her most recent start, a win in a non-graded stakes event at Tampa Bay Downs, she has posted four workouts, the two most recent being bullets.

Although she’s stepping up in class, her running style, paired with her speed figures and recent works, give her a real shot here.

Race 12: G2 Kitten’s Joy Pan American
Time: 5:26 p.m. ET

The G2 Kitten’s Joy Pan American will be run at a distance of 1.5 miles over the turf course, with the rail set at 60 feet.

We have to start with the heaviest morning line favorite of the day, No. 9 Zulu Alpha (3-5). Trained by Mike Maker with Tyler Gaffalione aboard, Zulu Alpha has four wins from five starts over the Gulfstream turf course. He’s coming in on a two-race win streak, both of which came against graded stakes company.

Although I’m including him in my ticket, at 3/5 I’m going to hope that we can beat him with one of our other selections as many will single him in this spot because there’s not much against Zulu Alpha.

One of the other two horses that I’m hoping can beat Zulu Alpha is No. 1 Channel Cat (9-2). A Calumet Farm homebred, sired by English Channel, Channel Cat is out of a Kitten’s Joy dam. In his seven starts at Gulfstream, he has two wins, a second and a pair of thirds. While he’s run in some of the classiest races and against top competition, Channel Cat hasn’t won a race since the G2 Bowling Green at Saratoga on July 27.

He has the highest speed figure in today’s race. That combined with his versatile running style are the reasons why he has a big chance to score the upset over Zulu Alpha.

The last horse we will take a look at is No. 10 Focus Group (8-1). After being in Chad Brown barn for his entire career, Focus Group was moved to the Christophe Clement barn after his most recent start, back in October. He is 1-for-1 at Gulfstream, but hasn’t seen the winner’s circle in about a year. Ironically enough, that win came in this very race last year.

In his five starts since then he has struggled, only hitting the board once, but with the layoff, the barn change and getting red hot Luis Saez in the irons, he’s one that I’m going to include at a price.

Race 13: G3 Appleton
Time: 6 p.m. ET

The G3 Appleton is another deep field of 12 that will be run over the turf course at the distance of 1 mile. We have my longshot play of the day in here.

Let’s first look at the favorite, No. 10 Sombeyay (7-2). Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Luis Saez, the son of Into Mischief tried the turf for the first time in July at Saratoga. That was the only time in four starts that he hasn’t hit the board on the grass.

Since then, he’s rattled off two second-place finishes, losing by a combined one length, and one win. That most recent start was right here at Gulfstream going the same distance in the G3 Canadian Turf. Saez is very familiar with Sombeyay, riding him in three of his four turf starts, but interestingly enough, not to his lone turf win. With his early running style and having Saez, one of the best jockeys from the front end, he stands a big chance in here.

Another Todd Pletcher trainee is the No. 7 Social Paranoia (10-1), who has eight starts over the turf course, tallying two wins, two seconds and three thirds. He was able to get up in the final strides in his most recent start, but that was back in September at Kentucky Downs. The only other time in his career when he’s come back off the layoff, he won in convincing fashion by eight lengths, albeit his maiden victory.

The amount of time he was away from the track though, was the same amount of time as this layoff, so we know he can fire first time back. His competitive nature always allows him to be in the mix and with his speed figures he looks to have a real shot in here at a great price.

I’ll also include No. 3 March to the Arch (8-1). Trained by Mark Casse, March to the Arch is a homebred for Live Oak Plantation with five wins, one second and a pair of thirds from 17 career turf starts. Additionally, he has two wins from four starts over the Gulfstream turf course.

In his most recent start, March to the Arch just missed as the 5/2 favorite, finishing third by a neck against graded stakes company at Tampa Bay Downs. He’s going to stalk the pace and if Tyler Gaffalione can work out the right trip, March to the Arch stands a big chance and is a horse that I just couldn’t overlook.

No. 7 Tiz the Law
Odds: 6/5

Tiz the Law is the heavy morning-line favorite for the Florida Derby. He is owned by Sackatoga Stable, who also owned 2003 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Funny Cide, and is trained by Barclay Tagg, who also represents Sackatoga at the sales. Manny Franco will have the mount for the fourth consecutive time.

Tiz the Law has three wins and one third-place finish from 4 career starts. That third-place finish was only by three-quarters of a length in the G2 Jockey Club at Churchill Downs back in November. It’s important to note that this was the only race that Tiz the Law has run that wasn’t over a fast main track, the Churchill track was sloppy for the Jockey Club.

Tiz the Law likes to sit just off the pace and make his move as they come out of the turn. He put up his best speed figure (Brisnet), and the best speed figure in the field, last time out with a 108. In his last start at the G3 Holy Bull right here at Gulfstream, Tiz the Law put away rival Ete Indien in the stretch, although he looked a little green in doing so, diving down to the rail after being out in the 3-path, forcing Ete Indien to come off the fence.

Tiz the Law is the classiest horse in the race, but Barclay Tagg’s win percentage sits at just 6% in graded stakes races. You must include Tiz the Law in your exotics, both horizontally and vertically

No. 12 Ete Indien
Odds: 4-1

The Patrick Biancone trainee has had an interesting career up to this point. Ete Indien broke his maiden in his first race right here at Gulfstream but it was on the turf. From there his connections tried him in the G3 Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland back in October. He finished eighth.

Ete Indien was then given some time off and upon returning to the track has been spectacular. His first start off the layoff, his first race on dirt, came in an OC75K non-winners of 1, where he put away his competition with ease. After that, Ete Indien took a big step up in class by running in the G3 Holy Bull where he ran into Tiz the Law. He was clearly second-best finishing 4.5 lengths ahead of the third-place finisher.

Ete Indien followed that up by absolutely dominating the G2 Fountain of Youth beating Candy Tycoon by 8.5 lengths. In his last start, Ete Indien also had Florent Geroux aboard for the first time and the jockey seemed to make a big difference. Geroux is hot, coming off big wins in the Fair Grounds Oaks aboard Bonny South and in the Louisiana Derby aboard Wells Bayou. Interestingly, Wells Bayou was also a front-running type in a deep field, which should be an advantage for Geroux, although this is a much different field.

Ete Indien has been extremely consistent since switching surfaces. All three of his starts on the dirt have resulted in speed figures of over 100. He will need to continue his streak here if he has a chance against Tiz the Law, but with the additional experience and Geroux in the irons, Ete Indien is a serious contender. If we get anywhere near his morning-line odds (4-1), he’s worth a win bet.

No. 5 Gouverneur Morris
Odds: 8-1

Gouverneur Morris was sired by Constitution, who also sired Tiz the Law, and purchased for $600K in the Fasig Tipton March 2019 sale. Owned by Team Valor and Winstar Farms, he is trained by Todd Pletcher and will have hall of famer John Velazquez in the irons.

Gouverneur Morris was the favorite in all three starts of his career and has two wins and one second-place finish. His second-place finish came at the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in October, losing to Maxfield by 5.5 lengths. Gouverneur Morris’ first start off the layoff was an OC75K non-winners of 1 at Tampa Bay Downs in mid-February. He was placed forwardly and had a steady bid throughout the stretch to win by a length and a quarter.

Gouverneur Morris’ speed figures have improved in each start and he will need to step them up again in this field. He’s had four workouts since his start in Tampa, with one of them (March 15th) being a bullet, finishing 5F in 1:00.67.

Gouverneur Morris’ improving speed figures and the combination of Pletcher and Johnny V make him a must-include for the Florida Derby.

No. 3 Disc Jockey
Odds: 20-1

Disc Jockey is trained by the red hot Saffie Joseph Jr. and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. Joseph Jr. and Gaffalione have won 24% of their races over the last 60 days (24 starts).

Disc Jockey has two wins and a second-place finish in three career starts, all over the fast main track at Gulfstream. He was claimed after his first start and maiden victory.

Coming off a three-month layoff, and making his first start for the new barn, Disco Jockey won an OC50k race going away by 5 3/4 lengths. In his most recent start, a non-graded stakes race, he was the heavy favorite and missed by one and a quarter lengths, but at a distance of 7F. He was caught wide, but that shouldn’t be an issue here since he’s starting from the 3-hole.

The additional distance should help this son of Bodemeister. Since switching to the Joseph Barn, Disc Jockey has put up big speed figure numbers, although they will need to get even better for him to contend against the horses above him on this list.