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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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The 2018-19 Champions League group stage begins on Tuesday, Sept. 18 and concludes on Wednesday, Dec. 12. There are eight groups with four teams apiece, and each club will play the three other teams home-and-away for a total of six games.
The Champions League Final will take place on June 1, 2019 at the Wanda Metropolitano in Madrid, Spain, home of Atletico Madrid.
Last year it was Atleti’s local rivals, Real Madrid, lifting the trophy for the third time in a row after a 3-1 win over Liverpool in the final. They’ll be looking to make it four in a row with a new head coach (Julen Lopetegui) and without Cristiano Ronaldo (sold to Juventus).
Group A is one of the more intriguing from top to bottom with the likes of Atletico Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, AS Monaco and Club Brugge.
Atletico Madrid will be looking to bounce back after a poor Champions League showing in 2017-18, but they did make some amends by winning the Europa League last season. They’re also contending for a Spanish La Liga title this year along with Barcelona and Real Madrid.
Out of Germany, Dortmund are always a fun team to have in the group stage since they tend to play a more open and attacking style. This approach is far different than that of defensive-minded Atletico Madrid, and the clash of styles will be must-see TV when these teams meet.
As for Monaco, they’re no slouches despite early season results not going their way in France’s Ligue 1. They’re clearly the darkhorse in this group.
The biggest underdogs in Group A, Club Brugge, could play the role of spoiler but they’re overmatched. The club out of Belgium will be moneyline underdogs in all six of their group-stage matches but won’t really have any pressure to get results.
In the first group matches, Atletico Madrid will host Monaco while Dortmund takes on Club Brugge. Atletico Madrid are getting more than 80% of moneyline bets and have moved from -110 to -130. The public is also heavy on Dortmund, with more than 80% of bets, but their line has remained at -125.
I’m expecting Atletico Madrid to win the group, and although I like Monaco to potentially steal a second-place finish, the value at +110 just isn’t there. However, If Monaco end up losing the opener at Atletico, it may be worth buying low on the French side before their second match.
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09-18-18 12:22 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Group B consists of some heavy-hitters with Barcelona, Tottenham, Inter Milan and PSV Eindhoven all vying for two spots in the knockout round.
Barcelona are one of the favorites to win the entire tournament and should be able to advance from the group stage despite some tough matchups.
The club to watch here is Tottenham because they haven’t been great historically in European competition. They’ll need to make sure they get positive results in their matches against Inter Milan, and Spurs will host the Italians in the opening group game on Tuesday, Sept. 18.
The three-way moneylines for that matchup are very tight: Tottenham +155, Inter Milan +208, Draw +230. If Spurs can get a win or draw, their odds to advance from the group will increase. If Spurs happen to lose, you’ll be able to get a much better price on them to advance.
PSV Eindhoven of Netherlands will be underdogs in all six of their matches, but they shouldn’t be completely ignored. They comfortably qualified over the summer and have been rolling teams so far in the Eredivisie, the top Dutch league. A 7-0 thrashing of Den Haag over the weekend will have them feeling confident.
Public bettors may be enticed by seeing a name such as Inter Milan at plus-money, but the only real value in this group is to take Barcelona and Tottenham to advance.
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09-18-18 12:22 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Despite advancing to the Champions League final last season, Liverpool aren’t even the favorites to win their group this year, which is surprising considering how solid they’ve looked in the EPL so far.
Instead, bookmakers believe PSG are the clear favorites here.
The opening group game will set the stage for the rest of the campaign, as PSG travels to Liverpool. The current odds for the match are Liverpool +130, PSG +207, Draw +288.
Napoli will be hoping that one of those top clubs will slip up, but they have a tough opener themselves, traveling to Serbia to take on Red Star Belgrade. The Italians are heavy favorites (-220), but early public bettors think the home side can spring an upset.
PSG and Liverpool seem like the obvious choices here, but something seems fishy. If Napoli can win their opener on the road and also beat/draw Liverpool at home in the second game, they’ve got a real chance to surprise people.
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09-18-18 12:23 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Group D is perhaps the weakest group ever assembled in the Champions League. When group play ends, two of these clubs: FC Porto, Schalke, Galatasaray or Lokomotiv Moscow, will advance to the knockout rounds.
Despite the lackluster teams, I think there are a couple of value bets to make.
First is for FC Porto to win the group at +125 odds. I believe they’re the best team overall in this group, so getting plus-money is worth it. Even though FC Porto have a tough opening match in Germany, a win would put them at around -200 to win the group. Schalke just don’t seem to be the same club as last year’s squad and are already in the relegation zone in early Bundesliga action.
So who will join FC Porto in the group stage? I’m going with the biggest underdogs, Lokomotiv Moscow, at +160 odds. They’ve improved from last season by bringing in more offensive talent, and all three home matches will be incredibly tough for their opponents.
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09-18-18 12:24 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Liverpool v PSG | Tuesday 18th September 2018, 20:00 | BT Sport
Goals are expected here. With that in mind, it’s no surprise to see Over 2.5 Goals as short as 4/9.
Last season, 46 of 96 Champions League group stage matches saw Over 1.5 first-half goals – that’s 48%. It landed in five of Liverpool’s seven home matches en-route the final.
Under Thomas Tuchel, PSG have scored three or more goals in all six games, scoring in the first-half in five of those. They’ve conceded in three of their last four.
Goal frenzies are nothing new for Tuchel sides. Augsburg II averaged 3.7 goals per-game under his reign. It was 2.94 at Mainz and then 3.31 at Dortmund.
Eight of 10 Champions League games during his time at Dortmund went Over 2.5 Goals, including an 8-4 win versus Legia Warsaw, 2-2 draws home and away against Real Madrid, and 3-2 and 3-1 loses in the quarter-final defeat to Monaco.
He certainty wasn’t conservative when his Dortmund side lost 4-3 to Klopp’s Liverpool at Anfield in the Europa League quarter-final back in 2016, either.
Tuchel teams tend to adopt a gung-ho, all-out-attack approach. He himself suggested this when stating,”There’s definitely a style that’s been attributed to me, that we brought to the table at Mainz: pace going forward and attack-minded football.”
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09-18-18 08:07 AM |
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