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dwight007
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Aug 2003
Posts: 771
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Las Vegas Sharps Report-NFL Week 2
Sharps won big with Cincinnati over the Ravens last night. Time to look at how the Wise Guys have been betting the rest of this weekend’s NFL.
SUNDAY
INDIANAPOLIS AT WASHINGTON:
An opener of Washington -4.5 has been bet up to -5.5. Stores testing six (a key number, though not as important as three or seven) do see Colts money come in. That could mean a tug-of-war between Washington -5.5 and Indy +6 through the weekend. Sharps who liked the Redskins got in early at -4.5 and -5. Dog lovers will take the full six whenever they see it. Some interest on the Over which has been bet up from 47 to 48.5.
CAROLINA AT ATLANTA:
Atlanta has been bet up from -5.5 to -6. Sharps like that the Falcons have had 3 more days to prepare for this divisional matchup, while Carolina looked less than impressive in beating Dallas and is dealing with injuries to key starters Luke Kuechly and Greg Olsen. The public usually likes taking favorites under a touchdown, but it’s tougher in spots where the underdog has a quarterback who can move the ball. We’ll have to see if there’s interest in Carolina now that the six is in play.
MINNESOTA AT GREEN BAY:
This one is off the board pending the status of Aaron Rodgers. It would be crazy to play him against a physical defense that probably wouldn’t mind taking a 15-yard penalty to take a shot at a one-legged quarterback. Most in the markets assume the Vikings would be around -7 as a road favorite over DeShone Kizer if he gets the start.
LA CHARGERS AT BUFFALO:
This one opened at Chargers -7 as a road favorite because Buffalo looked so awful last week. Only interest on the Chargers so far. We’re now seeing -7.5 at most places, and -8’s are out there. The Chargers are going to be a popular choice in six-point teasers with Sharps. You long-timers know that the Wise Guys like crossing both the three and the seven in one move. You can do that with the Chargers at -7.5 or -8, taking them down to -1.5 or -2 in two-team teasers. Sharps also like the Under here, which has been bet down from 44.5 to 42.5.
HOUSTON AT TENNESSEE:
Took awhile for this one to go up because of the injury to Marcos Mariota last week. Stores opened either Houston -2 or -2.5. Some interest on the two for the favorite. Tennessee would likely get hit hard at +3. Houston was less than impressive at New England last week. Tennessee disappointed at Miami, but would likely bring more intensity to a divisional home game. Some Under sentiment here has dropped the line from 45 to 43.
KANSAS CITY AT PITTSBURGH:
An opener of Pittsburgh -4 has been bet up to -4.5 or -5. Different stores are getting different reads from their clientele. Some Sharp syndicates like getting points with the Chiefs high-powered offense for value. It’s not likely the public would drive the line as high as -6 given Pittsburgh’s sluggish play at Cleveland last week. HUGE move on the The Over here from 49.5 to 53.5. Sharps are definitely expecting a lot of points and yards from both offenses. KC played a high scoring game against the Chargers. Pittsburgh posted a bunch of yards at Cleveland, but turned the ball over six times.
MIAMI AT NY JETS:
Looks like a tug-of-war all weekend between Jets -2.5 and Miami +3. Differing syndicates LOVE their bets at the varying lines. Jets fans (and some Sharps who like Sam Darnold) want the hosts below a field goal. Old school guys who don’t trust rookie quarterbacks as favorites can’t believe they can get a full three with the Dolphins. Could be a very heavily bet game now that money from New Jersey has joined the sphere of influence.
PHILADELPHIA AT TAMPA BAY:
Philadelphia is clearly the popular betting choice at -3, although stores that test -3.5 do see Tampa Bay money come in from Sharps. Some stores have decided not to test the hook and just go head-to-head against squares (the public). At least so far. Shaping up as a tug-of-war Sunday between Eagles -3 and Bucs +3.5.
CLEVELAND AT NEW ORLEANS:
New Orleans has been painted -9 most of the week. Sports books wouldn’t dream of dropping to -8.5 because that would bring in a million six-point teasers at Saints -2.5. The public would normally love the Saints here, but they took a bath on New Orleans -10 vs. Tampa Bay last weekend. I still believe New Orleans will get the square money over the weekend, at least bringing -9.5 into play. The total has been bet up from 47.5 to 49.
ARIZONA AT LA RAMS:
Openers of Rams -12.5 or -13 have hung around that range all week. Not a heavily bet game. Some shops will move the line just to see if that generates any action. Stores don’t want games with no betting because then there’s no chance to make money. Old-school Sharps who like double digit dogs have already taken the Cardinals at +13, and will take more if the public plays the chalk here before kickoff.
DETROIT AT SAN FRANCISCO:
Another game around six, with an opener of SF -5.5 now painted -6 everywhere. Detroit looked awful last week vs. the Jets. San Francisco was competitive at a tough road site. Still, I don’t think the public is ready to lay the full six with the Niners Sunday, but I could be wrong. SF is a “local” team in Nevada in terms of TV games and media coverage. My guess is that Sharps who want to bet San Francisco will do so in money line parlays and teasers.
NEW ENGLAND AT JACKSONVILLE:
A rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game in Foxboro that should have been won by the Jaguars. New England opened at -2 and was bet down to -1.5. Patriots have an inconsistent recent history on the road against teams that play good (or great) defense, and it's notable that Sharps didn’t even wait to see if squares would drive the line higher. Wise Guys jumped in on the Jags at +2, and will take some more if it comes back into play.
OAKLAND AT DENVER:
Tough game here that has been sitting on Denver -6 all week. Nobody wants to bet the Raiders. That was true even before last Monday’s blowout loss to the Rams. More true now, given their complete no-show in the second half of that game. Still, Denver's not yet ready to lay this many points in the minds of Sharps and squares alike. Also, Sharps really don't like Denver's coach, but aren't sure what they'll get from Gruden and Carr either. Still, it’s a late game, so people will find a reason to bet it Sunday. Like SF, the Broncos will show up in a lot of money line parlays and teasers because people figure they’ll at least win the game.
NY GIANTS AT DALLAS:
An opener of Dallas -3.5 was bet quickly down to Dallas -3. It’s stayed there all week. I know some Sharps who like the Giants because New York did get some yards and points on the board against Jacksonville’s great defense last week. What can look ugly to the naked eye can be pretty to a Wiseguy. Dallas was real ugly all the way around in its 16-8 loss at Carolina. Sharps love the Giants at +3.5, and some still like them at +3. Dallas would definitely draw interest at -2.5, though that doesn’t seem likely to come into play.
MONDAY
SEATTLE AT CHICAGO:
Da Bears opened -3 (which would have seemed crazy in the recent past), and still got bet UP to -3.5! A lot of respect from Sharps for this new head coach, and even though they blew the lead last week at Green Bay they still got the cover, while Seattle’s fallen off the map of late in terms of Wise Guy respect AND public sentiment. The Seahawks do get the largest share of interest at +3.5 however. It'll be interesting to see what happens in the markets on this one all weekend. It’s going to be a heavily bet game because the public (and the media) is excited about the Bears again, and because this is the Monday-nighter where those bettors who are ahead will press and those that are behind will try to recoup their losses.
That's it for this week, as always Good Luck to All in the Den!!!
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09-15-18 12:42 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Sharp angle: Bills (moved from +8 to +7)
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
Public bettors are victims of recency bias. If a team played well and posted an impressive victory the week before, Average Joes will bet on them the following week, no questions asked. If a team got blown out and looked terrible, they’ll automatically fade them.
With the Bills getting demolished 47-3 in Week 1, the public sees an easy layup with the Chargers laying a touchdown on the road. However, wiseguys are buying low on Buffalo.
In one of the most lopsided games of the week, the Bills are only getting 19% of spread bets, yet they’ve moved from +8 to +7 across the market .
Why would the oddsmakers drop the spread to give public Chargers backers a better number? Because sharps at ABC, Buckeye, CRIS, 5Dimes and GTbets all hammered Buffalo, triggering eight separate steam and reverse line moves.
The Bills also find themselves in a profitable historical spot. They fit the 80/20 Rule: teams getting 20% or less bets have gone 113-91 ATS (55.4%) since 2005.
Additionally, dogs off a blowout of 20 points or more have gone 266-218 ATS (55%) the following week. Buffalo also fits the profitable Bet Labs system Against the Public After Bad Offensive game (61.7% ATS since 2005).
An added bonus for wiseguys in the Bills Mafia: the Chargers are a West Coast team traveling East for an early 1 p.m. game, a difficult spot historically (fading road favorites in this spot has gone 61% ATS since 2005).
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09-16-18 12:02 PM |
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