let's get it going !
GL

Manchester City just cannot be stopped and have now won a record 15-straight Premier League matches after easily dismantling Swansea 4-0 on Wednesday night. My value plays (+22.83 units this year) were also successful again after Crystal Palace scored two late goals in the 88th minute and stoppage time to stun Watford 2-1. Here’s a quick look at last week’s results, season trends, biggest payouts, title odds and value plays for Week 18.

Week 17 Results:
Home 4 of 10 (-2.81 units)
Away 4 of 10 (+1.08 units)
Draw 2 of 10 (+2.06 units)

Road teams finally had a positive week and draws earned over +2 units despite cashing just two of 10 games.

Season Results:
Home 78 of 170 (+3.59 units)
Away 51 of 170 (-20.96 units)
Draw 41 of 170 (-3.07 units)

Road teams have still struggled overall this season at nearly -21 units. Blindly betting every home team has earned over +3 units while betting every draw has resulted in about -3 units lost.

Season’s Biggest Payouts:
Burnley (+1125) at Chelsea in Week 1
Huddersfield (+875) vs. Man Utd in Week 9
Crystal Palace (+695) vs. Chelsea in Week 8
Tottenham/Swansea Draw (+695) in Week 5
West Ham (+655) vs. Chelsea in Week 16

It had been a while since we saw a big payout in the Premier League, but West Ham’s upset over Chelsea in Week 16 cracked the Top-5. Three of the five biggest payouts this season have been outright wins over Chelsea. They could sure use those nine extra points right now, but would still be well behind Man City in the table.

Title Odds via Paddy Power:
Man City -2500 (49 points)
Man Utd +1800 (38 points)
Chelsea +6000 (35 points)
Liverpool +8000 (31 points)
Tottenham +10000 (31 points)
Arsenal +12500 (30 points)
Burnley +200000 (31 points)
Leicester +100000 (26 points)

Man City and Man United were the most popular picks to win the title before the season, but many believed Tottenham would be in the hunt as well. They’re now 18 points off the pace, and even a win at Man City this weekend leaves them 15 points behind. In a way, I’m almost glad that Spurs have struggled lately because you can get a generous price this weekend on the road– Tottenham are +500 on the moneyline while the draw is listed at +360. Unfortunately, public bettors are on the same wavelength and are also taking Tottenham or the draw, but I can’t let that sway me too much. With a total of 3 goals, I expect both teams to be able to score, and at +350 I think the draw is worth betting.

Another draw I really like this weekend is between West Brom and Manchester United at +313 odds. West Brom have been the best ‘draw’ team this season, with 8 of their 17 matches finishing all square. When looking at just their home record, 5 of 8 matches have ended in a draw. For Sunday’s tilt against Manchester United, you’ll be hard-pressed to find many people willing to bet West Brom or the draw– currently more than 80% of moneyline bets have jumped on Man United. However, their odds have gotten worse, from -179 to -167, so the market has no problem offering a better price on Man United knowing that bets would still pour in on them. I’m not feeling bold enough to pick a West Brom upset at +555, but I think the draw has tremendous value at +313 odds.

Let’s make it a trifecta of draws this weekend with the last value play on Brighton/Burnley +195. You won’t find many draw lines this low, and the total sits at just 2 goals with heavy juice on the Under. Everyone and their mother is betting on Burnley to somehow escape with another win, but I just can’t get myself to jump on the bandwagon. There’s no doubt they’ve been the most impressive team in terms of exceeding expectations but now’s the time to sell high. On the other side of things, Brighton’s season appears to be crumbling and they’ve been outscored 9-1 in their last three matches. Now’s a great time to buy low, especially since they’re actually the ‘favorites’ for Saturday’s matchup. On paper, this looks like an easy bet on Burnley but that’s why so many casinos and sportsbooks exist. Take the draw at +195 odds and hope to see a scoreless game.

Most Lopsided Action:
87% on Leicester (-113) vs. Crystal Palace
83% on Watford (-127) vs. Huddersfield

Biggest Line Moves:
West Ham (+270 to +247) at Stoke
Southampton (+895 to +778) at Chelsea

As the games are coming thick and fast, the Champions are all set to entertain an unsettled Southamption side at t he Stamford Bridge on Saturday.

Chelsea are probably the best inconsistent team in the Premier League this season. On the surface, their campaign is not a disaster by any means. The Blues are only 3 points off second in the league – wining 11 out of 17 games – losing 4, but the inability to hit the heights they did – underpinned a remarkably consistent run of performances backed up by results – particularly this time last season, has somewhat weighed down on Antonio Conte.

Following a narrow yet ultimately disappointing defeat to rivals West Ham United, the Champions bounced back with a fine victory against Huddersfield Town but it’s time they went on a streak now in the next few weeks, if they were to climb up that table any further.

11th placed Southampton have been massively uninspiring themselves – winning only 4 games so far – same as Newcastle United who are 16th in the league. The Saints will make the short trip to West London on the back of a demoralising defeat against former Southampton manager Claude Puel’s Leicester City at home.


Having failed to win once in the last five games on the road, Pellegrino’s side face an uphill task on Saturday at the home of the defending Champions although the manager is hoping that they could repeat their performance against another top six side in Arsenal on Saturday. He said,

“Three days before [against Arsenal] we showed a completely different face, and Chelsea is a difficult side but we want to bounce back.”

TEAM NEWS
David Luiz again misses out for Chelsea, with the Brazilian still struggling with a knee problem. Alvaro Morata will be assessed by Antonio Conte closer to kick off.

Southampton have a full squad to choose from ahead of their visit to Chelsea.

INTERESTING NUMBERS
Antonio Conte has the best win percentage of any permanent Chelsea manager in league history (74.6%).
Southampton have kept one clean sheet in their last 24 PL meetings with Chelsea, a goalless draw on Boxing Day 2002 with Antti Niemi in goal.
Charlie Austin has scored eight goals in his last 12 Premier League starts for Southampton, including four in his last four matches.

Leicester City getting hammered right now

SOC [200082] LEICESTER CITY -106

YTD
26-17-3 +14.64

foxes are gonna need a big comeback

caught in the henhouse

345889829
SOC Stoke City +143