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msudogs
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Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga

let's get started with another week of action folks !
GL

Old Post 04-20-21 08:30 AM
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Bayern Munich is three wins away from their ninth consecutive Bundesliga title. The season has five matches to play, and the Bavarians have been eliminated from the Champions League and DFB-Pokal, meaning all of their focus is on retaining their league title.

When these two teams last met in December, Bayer Leverkusen came flying out of the start of the season and was atop the league table. Bayern beat them 2-1 on a last-minute Robert Lewandowski goal that day and it began Leverkusen’s collapse down the table. Leverkusen is unlikely to make top four and it’s looking to secure a Europa League spot for next season.

Leverkusen’s inevitable regression came hard and they’ve dropped into sixth place. They have won just five of their last 17 contests in the league and their underlying numbers suggest they are barely an above average side in this league.

Paris Saint-Germain ended Bayern’s campaign to repeat as European champions last week, and the injuries continue to come for the inevitable German champions as they head into the final stretch of the season.

Prolific striker Robert Lewandowski is unlikely to return from his injury in time for the match on Tuesday, and he is vital to the attack. While he offers very little in terms of pressures on the defensive end, Lewandowski is the leading goal scorer in Germany and Bayern is +0.98 xG difference per 90 when he’s on the pitch vs. when he’s not.

He’s also not the only player Bayern is missing. Leon Goretzka is a valuable central midfielder and his likely replacement should be more defensive than Goretzka, who loves to get forward. Bayern’s best winger, Serge Gnabry, is unlikely to feature, in favor of an out-of-form Leroy Sané.

Although Bayern is an offensive juggernaut with defensive liabilities, the total is too high for its shorthanded attack. Backup striker Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting is both worse in attack than Lewandowski and much better at pressing and tackling defensively, which improves Bayern’s defense.

Leverkusen’s attack succeeded early in the season because of significant over-performance of their expected goals numbers. Teams also tried to play Leverkusen’s pressing style with them, which hasn’t worked for any team in the COVID-19 soccer era. Because of tired legs and tight fixture congestion, former manager Peter Bosz was fired following a downturn in results.

Hannes Wolf is in charge now and Leverkusen’s defense has improved since his arrival. They’ve allowed 1.8 xGA combined in their last three matches, two wins and a draw. Bosz’s pressing style wasn’t suited at all to this current era of COVID and their attack wasn’t successful enough at winning the ball high up the pitch and turning that into chances and goals.

The result is a defense that’s top three in xGA and just 10th in xGF. Leverkusen doesn’t really play a direct style of attacking through the middle, which is the best way to get after this leaky Bayern defense. For that reason, it will be difficult for Leverkusen to create high-quality chances.

Their improved defense should keep Bayern at bay enough to keep this game under 3.5 goals.

Old Post 04-20-21 08:40 AM
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Bayern Munich vs. Leverkusen: The league leaders look to move closer toward their 10th straight Bundesliga title against Leverkusen on Tuesday. Bayern Munich are in a great run of form in the Bundesliga at the moment, winning six of their last seven matches by a combined score of 21-7. Leverkusen on the other end have been struggling with only three wins in their last eight matches and have only one win in their last seven away matches.

Old Post 04-20-21 08:42 AM
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Serie A Notes
Roma vs. Atalanta: This is a huge match with major top-four implications. Roma is in a really bad run of form, which has seen them fall eight points off the pace for the top four. On the flip side, Atalanta is in a fantastic run of form, winning nine of their last ten matches in Serie A. Roma has really struggled versus teams ahead of them in the table, going 0-6-3 in nine matches. Atalanta is also unbeaten in their last six meetings against Roma.

Napoli vs. Lazio: Another huge match for Champions League qualification, as the fifth- and sixth-place teams square off. Napoli is two points off Juventus for fourth, while Lazio is only four points off the pace of the reigning champions. Napoli is in fantastic form at home, winning six of their last seven matches. Lazio is also in fantastic form, having won five straight.

Old Post 04-20-21 08:42 AM
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Nothing like having to play a tough Premier League match after the biggest win of your season. Right, Chelsea?

Well, that’s the scenario Tuesday when the west London club hosts everyone’s favorite Premier League underachiever — Brighton & Hove Albion — in an important matchup at Stamford Bridge.

The Blues enter this game fresh off a stunning 1-0 victory over Manchester City in Saturday’s FA Cup semifinal showdown at Wembley Stadium. Hakim Ziyech’s goal in the 55th minute was all they needed to earn a spot in the May 15 championship.

On the other side, Brighton is coming off of a scoreless draw against Everton the last time out. Once fixed members of the relegation crew, the Seagulls have picked up seven points in their last four contests, which has steered them clear of most drop-zone chatter.

Historically, Chelsea has dominated Brighton in the lifetime series. The Blues are unbeaten in their last 14 meetings with the Seagulls, winning 12 of them. The two other games ended in draws. You have to go all the way back to 1933 to find the last time (and only time) Brighton defeated its host.

The Blues pulled off their biggest win of the season as huge underdogs in that massive win over Manchester City. It was the signature moment in manager Thomas Tuchel’s reign at the club since taking over for Frank Lampard.

The Blues now face Leicester City for the tournament hardware at one of soccer’s most hallowed grounds. The Foxes punched their ticket to the title match with a 1-0 victory over Southampton in Sunday’s second semifinal.

With all that excitement surrounding the Blues, it wouldn’t be hard to imagine them walking on the pitch a little less focused then usual. However, this match is pivotal in the race for the league’s top-four positions. A win over the Seagulls would vault the Blues into third place, leapfrogging West Ham United and Leicester City in the process.

The last time these sides squared off was their season opener, with Chelsea earning a 3-1 victory. The Blues won the match, but lost the expected-goals battle by a 1.4-1.2 margin

The Seagulls were flirting with disaster much of their disappointing campaign, but have since come alive with some big results to all but ensure a return to England’s top flight.

Prior to a hard-luck 2-1 loss against Manchester United two games back, Brighton earned important victories over Southampton (2-1) and Newcastle United (3-0) to move into 16th place in the table. The Seagulls’ 33 points put them six clear of 18th-place Fulham, which suffered a gutting 1-1 draw against Arsenal over the weekend.

Now, Brighton is all about finishing the season strong and moving up the standings. I’m not sure it’s going to gain any ground facing this Chelsea outfit, but getting past the likes of Crystal Palace, Southampton and Newcastle should be the goal the rest of the way.

Old Post 04-20-21 08:48 AM
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Manchester City look to put the disappointment of being dumped out of the FA Cup by Chelsea when they take on Aston Villa midweek in the Premier League. Pep Guardiola will be hoping for a better week with the League Cup Final against Spurs looming on Sunday and victory at Villa Park will provide the tonic needed ahead of the final showpiece.

Man City’s quadruple hopes were slashed by Chelsea in their FA Cup exit on Saturday, with Pep Guardiola criticized for being a little too gung-ho with his rotation, even if it had served the Spaniard well up until that point.

The likes of key performers Phil Foden and Ilkay Gundogan were only utilized from the bench, while Ederson, John Stones and Riyad Mahrez were amongst the unused substitutes, though it would be a surprise if a full-strength team was deployed here with the League Cup final around the corner.

The visitors should have the quality to bounce back here regardless, as they still possess 28 wins from their past 31 appearances, as Man Utd and Leeds were the only other sides to beat them.

They haven’t however been typically pummelling teams as Man City and under 3.5 goals has landed in nine of their past 14 appearances, as only two of these games saw four goals or more in total.

City have won all four encounters with Villa since the latter’s promotion, with all but one of these games featuring fewer than four goals, including a 2-0 win in the reverse fixture this season.

We can’t see Aston Villa taking the game to City in the best of circumstances, let alone when missing talisman Jack Grealish following his setback, while fellow attacker Trezeguet has seen his season ended after sustaining a knee injury against Liverpool.

Villa have now won just once in six appearances, with Grealish missing each of these, as they failed to register against Sheffield Utd, Wolves and Spurs.

That doesn’t bode well for them here and in fact, Villa are a disappointing W2-D2-L6 in the absence of their talisman since the start of last season, as they only scored more than once on a single occasion when taking on struggling Fulham recently.

There have been fewer than three goals in seven of Villa’s past 10 matches now, and just one strike or less in half of these, so there would be no raised eyebrows if they were to fail in scoring here.

Man City hold by far the best defensive record in the division with just 23 goals conceded from 32 league games, while it’s worth remembering that five of those came on the same day as they suffered a 5-2 defeat to Leicester early on in the campaign.

That was before the arrival of key centre-back Ruben Dias, who was absent in the recent defeat to Leeds as Guardiola wrang the changes.

Old Post 04-21-21 08:25 AM
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Life after Jose Mourinho begins for Tottenham when they take on Southampton in the Premier League on Wednesday night. With a League Cup Final against Manchester City taking place on Sunday, the timing of the decision seems a bit odd, however the players have a job to do if they want to keep their slim hopes of a top-four finish alive.

Jose Mourinho has been sacked just six days before the League Cup final, coming off the back of the announcement that Spurs will form part of a new Super League, though the two may well not be related as their form under the Portuguese coach has warranted criticism.

They’ve now won just five of their past 14 league games, losing seven of these, while in addition they’ve crashed out in Europe unexpectedly to Dinamo Zagreb.

Across all competitions, they’ve shipped at least two goals in five of their past six appearances, as only an Aston Villa side missing talisman Jack Grealish failed to net past them.

With apparent disgruntlement amongst the squad under Mourinho, the host’s fans will hope for a reaction here.

However, caretaker Ryan Mason lacks any managerial experience at this level, while he’ll surely omit Harry Kane from his plans with the striker limping off at the end against Everton last time out.

The England captain underlined his importance to his club side with both goals in that 2-2 stalemate, and the focus must surely be getting the 27-year-old fit for the League Cup final.

Still, they’ll struggle without him, as Spurs have won just three of 11 league games that Kane has failed to start since the start of last season, as they’ve scored 38% fewer goals in his absence.

Southampton appear to have little left to play for as they’re nine points ahead of 18th-placed Fulham with two games in hand, while they lost their FA Cup semi-final to Leicester this weekend.

Ralph Hasenhuttl’s men are a poor W4-D1-L11 in all competitions since late January, with the victories picked up over Wolves, Sheffield Utd, Bournemouth and Burnley, so it’s difficult to see them making waves here.

In particular, Southampton’s away form has been alarming. They’ve taken maximum points just once across their past 10 league trips, losing seven of the last eight as they conceded at least three goals against each of Man Utd, Newcastle, Leeds, Man City and West Brom.

Moreover, they’ve failed to score in six of their past nine away league games, though should have opportunities against Spurs’ porous backline.

Indeed, 11 of 12 head to heads between the two sides since the start of 2016 have seen both sides register on the scoreboard, with the two most recent encounters sharing 12 goals overall. Kane may be absent, but the likes of Heung-min Son, Lucas Moura and Erik Lamela are all capable of adding goals, while with Mourinho gone, it’s possible that either Gareth Bale or Dele Alli will be handed a chance to impress.

Neither defence has convinced so far this term, and both teams to score looks a steady bet

Old Post 04-21-21 08:28 AM
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Life with José Mourinho at the Tottenham Hotspur helm came to a sudden end Monday when the club sacked its manager. Now, former Spurs youth footballer and first-teamer Ryan Mason has taken the reins at a time with a wild stretch of matches coming up.

Mason will take Mourinho’s spot on the Tottenham sideline Wednesday when his lads face struggling Southampton in a Premier League fixture. The 29-year-old, who was part of Spurs soccer as a player from 2008-15 before joining Hull City during the 2016 season, will hope he can lead a side chasing a top-four finish.

Tottenham sits in seventh place with 50 points in England’s top flight, putting it five points behind fourth-place Chelsea and fifth-place West Ham United. Spurs are only six points back of Leicester City, so cracking the top four and securing a Champions League berth is not out of the question.

In contrast, the Saints are seemingly going through the motions as the season winds down. Not in jeopardy of being relegated, Southampton is in 14th place on 36 points. The visiting side is coming off a brutal 3-0 defeat at the hands of drop-zone resident West Bromwich Albion in its most recent contest.

I thought it was kind of interesting (and somewhat odd) Tottenham fired Mourinho at this point in the season, especially since it plays Manchester City in Sunday’s Carabao Cup final. One would think Spurs would have waited to make the change at season’s end, but that obviously wasn’t the case.

Tottenham earned a 2-2 draw against Everton this past weekend, with Harry Kane bagging the brace in the come-from-behind victory. If we’re being honest, Spurs were lucky to leave Goodison Park with a point. They were dominated in the expected-goals battle by the Toffees, who held a 2.3-1.2 xG at the final whistle.

Now, Kane (who picked up a knock in the Everton stalemate and could be rested) and teammate Son Heung-min must rally their teammates. Tottenham must put in an efficient performance against Southampton that won’t come at a price ahead with the huge showdown with Manchester City on the horizon.

This really has become a lost situation in the final third of the season for the Saints, who have one win and three points in their last four outings. That lone victory — albeit an important one — during this stretch came via a 3-2 victory over Burnley on April 4 at St Mary’s Stadium.

Prior to the shellacking Southampton endured against West Brom at The Hawthorns, the offense was doing its part to at least give it a chance. Unfortunately, it has been the defense that hasn’t held up its end of the bargain. The Saints have conceded a whopping 12 goals in their last four league fixtures, which simply won’t cut it any level in professional soccer.

The Baggies, who scored twice in the opening half, put the game away on Callum Robinson’s goal midway through the second 45 minutes to close out the win and leave the Saints looking for answers during this recent slide. West Brom held a sizable edge in xG, finishing with a 2.9-2.1 advantage.

Tottenham has absolutely dominated Southampton on home soil, winning nine of the last 10 meetings at its north London stadium. Combine that with the fact the Saints have lost seven of their last eight road league affairs, and you have to like your chances of hitting this wager.

Old Post 04-21-21 08:32 AM
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West Brom is all but certainly going to be relegated from the Premier League after its first season back in the top division, but that hasn’t stopped them from dramatically improving since the hiring of manager Sam Allardyce.

At the other end of the table, Leicester City has fallen off a bit in recent weeks and is now fighting for a spot in the top four and a place in next year’s Champions League. That turns this match into a must-win for the Foxes. They’ve lost their last two league matches and seen their top-four odds fall to 68%, per FiveThirtyEight.

WBA enters this match nine points from safety with just seven matches to play, a nearly insurmountable deficit to try to make up. But their improved performances of late create value on them in this matchup.

It’s been really difficult to gauge how good Leicester City is this season because injuries and penalties have skewed their season-long numbers significantly. Early in the year, the Foxes benefitted from an unusual and unsustainable number of penalties that masked over very mediocre underlying numbers. They survived an extensive period of injuries, too, and it appeared their performances were improving once those players came back.

But they really haven’t improved and haven’t gotten much production out of their attacking players. The emergence of Kelechi Iheanacho has saved their attacking output, but James Maddison and Jamie Vardy have underperformed in the second half of the season. Harvey Barnes is out for the year.

Leicester are eighth in the league in non-penalty xG difference since Dec. 23. In their last 10 games, they rank seventh in NPxGD. Simply put, this Leicester team has been efficient at getting results from lackluster performances all year and it’s why they rank third in the league despite these underlying numbers.

In terms of shots, LCFC is the ninth-best attack and fifth-best defense, and their numbers are average in both ends in terms of quality of shot allowed. There’s nothing all that impressive about this Foxes team right now, and the number is showing too much disrespect to West Brom.

Since Big Sam was hired in late December, West Brom hasn’t been the worst team in the league. They haven’t even been in relegation form. The Baggies struggled when he was first hired but they are much better than the “one of the worst teams in league history” pace they had set in the first half of the year.

WBA is the 17th-best team in non-penalty expected goal difference in their last 17 matches, which is about -0.55 xGD per 90. In the opening 14 matches, West Brom was -1.32 xGD per 90, by far worst in the league. Allardyce has mostly improved the defense, but the attack has improved too. They showed their ability to play direct, effective attacking football in their stunning upset of Chelsea.

The emergence of Mbaye Diagne as a striker and Matheus Pereira as a creative midfielder has unlocked this West Brom attack and enabled them to get a few high quality chances per game. Diagne and Pereira are combining for 0.57 and 0.42 xG + xA per 90 this year, which is solid attacking numbers for an otherwise bad team.

Old Post 04-22-21 08:32 AM
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Napoli and Lazio are within two points of one another entering Thursday’s Serie A clash, turning their matchup into a Champions League six-pointer. If Lazio is able to win, they’d leapfrog Napoli into fifth with a game in hand as the closest challenger to AC Milan, Atalanta and Juventus for the top four.

A Napoli win at home would extend their gap over Lazio to five points and keep them within striking distance of all three teams above them. Lazio’s top four odds sit at 23%, while the hosts sit at 43%, per FiveThirtyEight. This game, if it has a winner, will be a huge pivot game with six matches to go after Thursday (seven for Lazio).

Lazio has the tougher run in of games on their schedule, but the sixth-placed side has been in excellent form in the league. Five consecutive wins and they’ve been impressive in most of them on expected goals, too. But they’ve benefitted from a weak schedule of opponents, while Napoli has been almost as good, albeit against much better opponents.

The hosts have been better than Lazio all year and are undervalued to take all three points on Thursday.

Napoli salvaged a point out of a pretty lackluster performance against Inter Milan in a game that didn’t have a whole lot in it at the weekend. 1.6 combined expected goals and a 1-1 draw is a pretty fair result. Playing the eventual Italian champions even is a good result and performance though, and it’s been a recent trend for Germano Gattuso’s side.

They were marginally better than Roma and Milan in wins over both. Napoli lost to Juventus in a pretty mediocre performance, but also handled Serie A bottom feeders Sampdoria and Crotone easily in the last month. The result is a pretty good team with good underlying metrics deserving of a top four spot.

AC Milan is maintaining its spot in the top four from a hot start to the year, but Napoli’s been one of Italy’s four best since the opening month of the campaign. Lazio is a good matchup for them generally because Lazio will cede possession and space to the hosts.

Napoli wants to keep the ball, pass it around and take shots from distance. They get most of their ball progression from the wings but don’t rely a ton on crosses into the penalty area for offense. Napoli’s attack leads the league in shots per match, even more than Atalanta.

The result is lots of patterns of possession for Napoli, which becomes a problem if the hosts get up early and force Lazio to come out of their countering style.

Lazio has done well in recent weeks to vault themselves back into the Serie A top-four race, but this is a tough matchup for a team that has struggled against the class of the division all year. Take away second-leading scorer Felipe Calceido, and it becomes difficult for Simone Inzaghi’s side to create chances against an excellent Napoli defense out of possession.

Lazio is great at quick strike transition and counters, but Napoli is pretty good at forcing teams to break them down and possess the ball. The White and Sky Blues are ninth in shots per 90, bottom half in xG per shot and allow plenty of shots themselves. They’ve had success at scoring off set pieces, but Napoli is among the best at set piece chance prevention because of elite center back Kalidou Koulibaly.

Old Post 04-22-21 08:34 AM
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AC Milan’s loss on Wednesday opened the door for Atalanta to move alone into second place, if La Dea can beat fading Roma on Thursday in the Italian capital.

Atalanta picked up a crucial three points at home against Juventus on Sunday on a late goal from Ruslan Malinovskyi in an otherwise even game. The win pushed them four points ahead of Napoli, who sit in fifth place.

Roma’s quest for a Champions League place via the league ended last weekend with their loss to Torino. They sit in seventh place, 10 points off of Atalanta with seven matches to go. However, Roma is into the Europa League semifinals. Winning that competition is now their best chance to get into Europe’s elite competition.

Injuries and regression has defined the second half of the Roma season. They’ve been successful in the Europa League but have fallen out of the top-four race in Italy. Before discussing Roma, we have to discuss who won’t be playing in this matchup.

Leonardo Spinazzola, Chris Smalling and Amadou Diawara are all key players who will not be available for Roma in this game on Thursday. Their defense is really shorthanded and a major reason they’ve defended so poorly in recent weeks. Napoli, Sassuolo, Bologna, Ajax and Torino all ripped apart Paulo Fonesca’s team.

They’ve struggled all year against the other top teams in the league as well. Roma has taken three points from nine games against the top six in Serie A. No wins, three draws and six losses. They’ve only won the expected goals battle in one of those games too.

Atalanta’s win against Juventus was historic for many reasons. One, it came on the same day that Juventus planned to join the European Super League, which has already come and left since those teams played on Sunday. Two, it was their first win in Serie A over Juve since 2001. Third, it pushed La Dea above the Old Lady in the standings.

Manager Gian Piero Gasperini’s side won’t be winning the Serie A title, but their run over the last three seasons, given their budget and club size, is nothing short of remarkable. Atalanta is second in non-penalty xG difference, per Understat. They’re dominant in pressing statistics, create more big chances than any team in the league and average the second most shots and most shots on target in Italy.

Roma struggled to prevent Ajax from creating chance after chance in both leagues, and Atalanta is a much better version of the Dutch side. Roma’s pretty good at crossing defense, but they’ve vulnerable at being passed through. Atalanta is head and shoulders above the whole division in key passes, passes into the penalty area and progressive passes. Atalanta won the reverse fixture, 4-1 and won on xG 2.0-0.8 that day too.

Atalanta is focused on Serie A, while Roma will have one eye on its upcoming fixtures with Manchester United in the Europa League. This game is a much lower priority for them, and my numbers make this line Atalanta -125. For that reason, I’ll back the boys from Bergamo to take all three points away from home.

The away side is a nightmare matchup for Roma and should be able to easily pass through them and create big chances. Given the defensive regression from Roma, Atalanta is the last team they’d want to play right now.

Old Post 04-22-21 08:38 AM
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Arsenal vs Everton | Friday 23rd April 2021, 3:00

Everton Football Club, one of the original founder members of the Football League in 1888, travel to Arsenal Football Club; the first southern member of the Football League, in the Premier League, of which both were inaugural members, on Friday night.

It is six without a win for the Toffees, although the last three in succession have been draws, and whilst Mikel Arteta’s side have won just twice in their last seven in all competitions, that did include progression to the UEFA Europa League semi-finals, plus they didn’t lose a single game in the 48-hour European Super League! 😉

Both clubs are seemingly up against it if they are to potentially gate-crash fourth-spot in the Premier League, and it would appear Arsenal are very much throwing all of their eggs into winning the Europa League based upon their team selection against Fulham last week, which even included rotating goalkeepers.

Everton do at least have a game in hand or two over most of their rivals, so they’re not completely out of the European picture, which of course includes fifth spot making the Europa League group stage for next season.

Determining this game is very much dependent on how Arsenal approach it. They will have had five days since the Fulham draw going into this one, and then another six before taking on Villarreal in the first-leg of their massive European semi-final.

That is still the best part of a week, and after coming under scrutiny for making so many changes, which backfired, last weekend then I suspect Arteta may recruit a few more regular starters to face his former club. That Fulham game made it four in a row without winning at the Emirates, and fans or not, they need to end that rot sooner rather than later.

Everton actually possess one of the best away records in the league. Only the current top three of Man City, Man Utd and Leicester have achieved more points on their travels. In fact, since losing in Newcastle on November 1st last year, only Chelsea have beaten them away, so odds of around 3/1 on an Everton win here does strike as quite generous.

However, the Toffees have never won at the Emirates, and they’ve actually not won an away fixture at Arsenal since January 1996. For the record, they won 2-1 with Andrei Kanchelskis scoring a late winner.

The fitness of Dominic Calvert-Lewin will likely be key to making any betting decisions ahead of this game, as well. He has sat out the past two matches with an abductor problem, and Carlo Ancelotti wants him back in his side to try and add to his 14 goal Premier League return.

A trio of his teammates are tied second with six goals for team top scorer, which highlights the importance of the England international to the Merseyside club. Watch out for team news on Thursday when Ancelotti speaks to the press.

I will however put up a selection for the purposes of the article, and I just for the life of me can’t be having Arsenal right now, or at any point this season really. They are arguably the most frustrating team in the league, with the exception of Brighton, given that you don’t really know what you’re going to get.

I do feel as though both teams will go to win this one, almost to the point where if this was a draw late on then bodies would be thrown forward. Conceding first would be likely costly, especially with Arsenal winning only three of 16 when doing so, and Everton winning just one of 14. Knowing that, both will be slightly cautious to begin with, before opening up in the second period.

The first selection is Half Time Draw at 61/50 (Sporting Index), and secondly Over 1.5 Second Half Goals at 6/5 (Unibet). I’m also happy to throw forward Gylfi Sigurdsson Anytime Goalscorer at 11/2 (Betfair).

Old Post 04-23-21 08:22 AM
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Premier League Notes

West Ham vs. Chelsea: This is a huge match in the top-four race, as both teams are tied on points for fourth place in the table. The Hammers have beenin incredible form at home winning seven of their last eight matches at the Olympic Stadium. Chelsea, too, has been in incredible form under Thomas Tuchel in the Premier League with only one loss in 12 matches. Chelsea has a Champions League match with Real Madrid on Wednesday, so this is a precarious spot for them.

Old Post 04-23-21 08:26 AM
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Bundesliga Notes

Wolfsburg vs. Dortmund: This is a huge match that could decide who finishes in the top four. Wolfsburg is currently sitting in third place and is five points ahead of Dortmund with four matches left in the season. Dortmund has found their form, as they’ve won their last three matches. Wolfsburg has been almost unbeatable at home, going 9-4-1 this season. Dortmund has dominated Wolfsburg over the past decade, as they’ve won 13 of their last 15 meetings with Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga.

Old Post 04-23-21 08:26 AM
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Serie A Notes

Lazio vs. AC Milan: Lazio looks to keep their top four hopes alive when they host second place AC Milan. After losing 5-2 to Napoli on Thursday, Lazio is now seven points off the top and in desperate need of all three points. AC Milan is barely clinging onto hopes of winning the title, but likely need to win out if they want any shot at catching Inter. Lazio is the hottest team in Serie A at home, winning nine straight matches at the Stadio Olimpico.

Old Post 04-23-21 08:26 AM
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After a poor run of form in the winter, Liverpool have started to right the ship with three wins in their last four matches. The Reds find themselves two points behind Chelsea and West Ham for the fourth and final Champions League spot. West Ham and Chelsea play one another on Saturday, so a showdown with 15th-place Newcastle is a prime opportunity for Liverpool to get back into the top four.

The Magpies are sitting eight points above the drop zone and have recently hit a good stretch of form, winning two straight matches, including a 3-2 win over West Ham last weekend. Newcastle is finally starting to get healthy on offense, with Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson returning to the lineup.

The Reds also have a major tactical problem at the moment. Usually, Klopp plays an all-out, high press that gives teams fits. Liverpool’s high line at the back also keeps opponents from playing long balls up the field, which means that the opposition typically spends less time with the ball as they try to string together quick passes. However, Liverpool’s top three centerbacks are out for the rest of the season, so the Reds have been forced to back off Klopp’s patented high press so their fill-in defenders aren’t exposed.

With Newcastle finally getting some of their attackers healthy, they could take advantage of Liverpool’s weakness in the center of the defense.

The Magpies are showing signs of life as they try to secure their survival for next season. They are also getting some of their key attackers healthy, as Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin will hopefully finally be on the field together for the first time in more than a month. That will be huge for Newcastle since the pair combines to create 0.69 xG per 90 minutes.

Newcastle’s offense has sparked into high gear over their last three matches, generating 8.10 xG in that span. That is more than they created in their previous seven matches, so things are starting to trend upward offensively for the club.

While the offense is ticking up, Newcastle’s defense has been dreadful all season. The Magpies rank 17th in the Premier League with an average of 1.54 xGA per match. They have particularly struggled against stronger opposition as Newcastle has allowed 23.03 xG in 11 matches against the top seven clubs in the Premier League this season.

Old Post 04-24-21 08:50 AM
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Liverpool and Newcastle continue their respective bids for a top four finish and securing Premier League status when they square-off in the early Saturday Premier League clash. Liverpool conceded an 87th minute goal to draw 1-1 with Leeds last time out, a result that sees them remain in 6th place three points off the Champions League spots, while an impressive 3-2 win for Newcastle over West Ham have put them on the brink of securing their Premier League future for next season

A late equalizer for Leeds on Monday night has cast further doubt over Liverpool’s top four hopes, though with West Ham suffering defeat to Newcastle at the weekend, the Reds are still in the hunt.

Victory here is crucial, assuming the proposed European Super League doesn’t take immediate effect to save their skin, but Liverpool are rather on the short side for a team that hasn’t exactly clicked this term.

Jurgen Klopp’s men have won just six times across 18 league fixtures since Christmas, and even if they’ve currently won three of four unbeaten games, their last outing before drawing with Leeds saw them snatch victory over Aston Villa late on at Anfield.

Home form in particular has been a major concern, where Liverpool are just W1-D2-L6 over this period, while they’ve managed just the solitary clean sheet from their last 10 there.

Newcastle could well prove dangerous opponents having found some form at the right time, as they appear to have put enough distance between themselves and the bottom three, with 18th-placed Fulham eight points adrift having played a game more.

That uptick in form has unsurprisingly coincided with the return of star players Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin.

The former has 10 goals and five assists this term and has featured from the bench in their last two games, though it’s the latter who has really led Newcastle’s charge to safety.

Newcastle have won 42% of the 36 games where Saint-Maximin has started since the start of last season, compared to just 15% of the 34 where he hasn’t, as even one of their five victories without him in the initial line-up saw him assist the equalizer and then score the winner from the bench in their recent clash with Burnley.

Having those two players back will undoubtedly help Newcastle’s output, while on-loan Arsenal midfielder Joe Willock has chipped in with recent strikes to ease the burden.

Steve Bruce’s team have now seen at least three goals in each of their past four outings, while both teams have scored in four of their last five, and they should be able to trouble their host’s backline.

That’s especially the case with Saint-Maximin often lining up on the left wing, where he’ll be sure to get opportunities to take advantage of the defensively suspect Trent Alexander-Arnold.

Old Post 04-24-21 09:42 AM
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Cádiz ML (+330) vs. Real Valladolid

Day | Time: Saturday | 10:15 a.m. ET
Real Valladolid should not be favored in this match, because when you compare its expected-goals differential with Cádiz, they are essentially the same. The numbers say Real Valladolid has a -13.46 xGD, which isn’t much better than the -18.30 xGDiff for Cadiz entering this contest.

Real Valladolid has also been one of La Liga’s worst teams at home this season, taking only 14 of a possible 45 points. Not to mention Real Valladolid only has one win in their last 14 league matches.

Cádiz has actually been in pretty decent form for a team in the bottom half of the table, winning three of its last seven matches. The Pirates have also taken the eighth-most points on the road this season, which is impressive for a newly promoted club.

The previous meeting between these two clubs ended in a scoreless draw, but Cádiz won the xG battle by a 0.87-0.43 advantage, with Real Valladolid only registering seven shots in the match.

Additionally, Real Valladolid is going to be without one of its main strikers in Shon Weissman, who has created the third-most xG on the team this season.

Old Post 04-24-21 12:52 PM
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Leeds look to extend their unbeaten Premier League run to six games when they welcome Manchester United on Sunday. With three wins, one being over Manchester City, and two draws with Liverpool and Chelsea, Marcelo Bielsa’s team have shown they are worthy of their Premier League status and will be confident they can add Man United to their list of wins at Elland Road.

Leeds are on their most successful run of the season having gone unbeaten in five matches, winning three of the last four, with their last two games demonstrating their ability to trouble the top sides as they beat Man City with 10 men and then took a point off Liverpool.

This unbeaten streak also began with a stalemate when taking on Chelsea, so Marcelo Bielsa’s men will hope to put up a better showing than when they were downed 6-2 by Man Utd at Old Trafford back in December.

That will be no easy task however as the Red Devils are in good form themselves. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s charges have lost just once in 20 matches across all competitions, and are currently enjoying a five-game winning streak that has seen them safely through to the Europa League semi-finals, as well as cement their grip on second place domestically.

In the league alone, Man Utd are unbeaten in 12 now since late January, also winning each of their past five outings, which includes victories over Man City, West Ham and Tottenham.

However, a couple of cracks have begun to show in their defence as they’ve kept just two clean sheets from their last six in all competitions, both coming against Granada in Europe.

With that in mind, their hosts will certainly fancy their chances of registering on the scoreboard, especially after forcing Alisson into a string of fine saves last time out.

Leeds might only be W2-D3-L7 against the top seven this season, but as their recent results demonstrate, they’re certainly capable of turning in a performance.

Both teams scored in nine of those 12 encounters and in fact, at Elland Road they’ve drawn three of five such matches and although the other two ended in defeats, both teams scored in four of these.

Pascal Struijk should keep his place at centre-back with Liam Cooper still suspended, while Raphinha remains sidelined through injury.

The latter’s absence is of course a major blow, with the winger contributing six goals and six assists from 26 appearances this term, though Leeds have other potential goalscorers and managed alright without him in their draw with Liverpool last time out.

Man Utd are unbeaten away from home in the league all season, though after winning their first six road trips, they’ve since drawn six of 10.

Notably, they’ve been slow starters, as they’ve actually conceded more first half goals than they’ve scored themselves.

They’ve been level at the break in eight of their past 10 on their travels, while excluding their four goalless stalemates this term, they’ve conceded first in nine of 12 away matches.

Leeds have opened the scoring in three of their last four fixtures, and a strong start should help them make it to half time very much in the game.

Old Post 04-25-21 02:16 PM
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Leicester vs Crystal Palace | Monday 26th April 2021, 3:00

Leicester welcome Crystal Palace to the King Power as they look to strengthen their grip on a Champions League spot. The Foxes were ruthless in the first half against West Brom on Thursday, scoring three times in a 13-minute spell to put the game to bed.

Brendan Rodgers will have been delighted by the way they saw out the game, while he’ll be equally as happy with Jamie Vardy, who scored his first goal in 11 games against the Baggies.

The Northern Irishman will be fairly wary of the threat Crystal Palace possess ahead of this one. We’ve seen a few times this season where teams sitting deep with a low block have managed to keep the Foxes at arms-length and that’s something the Eagles will look to do here.

Palace have won more Premier League games against Leicester than they have facing any other side (8). So, with Wilfried Zaha and Eberechi Eze likely to be in the starting line-up, they’ll possess plenty of threat on the break. Although they’re safe in 13th, I still doubt how expansive Roy Hodgson’s side will be because that could see them get picked off.

Part of the quandary before heading into the angles, is what Palace will turn up? We’ve seen capitulations in London derbies, losing 4-1 to both Spurs and Chelsea, while they’ve held Everton and Man Utd to draws. They are an enigma!

The betting angles
I’m expecting Palace to sit deep and soak up pressure, the early thoughts were to look at players shots from outside the box. But the bookies have cottoned on with that one. Youri Tielemans was one I considered – it’s EVS for 2+ efforts outside the box on Pokerstars. Not appealing enough.

That could see Leicester chancing their arm with a few shots from distance, so I did look at 16 or more shots for the Foxes at 5/4 with Paddy Power. They average 12 in the league this term and have hit that mark 11 times – six of those at the King Power. According to Fbref.com, the Foxes had exactly 16 shots in the reverse fixture.

Although Palace have been able to trip Leicester up in recent meetings, I just expected the hosts to have far too much quality and find a way to break through what can be a stubborn backline.

Looking at Infogol for their expected goals model, Leicester’s is the sixth-best in the top-flight at 51.6xG, while Palace have the worst at just 28.8xG. In terms of breaking that down per game: Leicester 1.61xG v 0.93xG Palace – comfortable in favour of the hosts.

At the other end, it’s a similar story. Only Leeds, Sheffield Utd and West Brom have the worst expected goals against (xGA) than Palace’s 56.1xGA. Again, Leicester’s is the sixth-best at 40.8xGA. Again, breaking it down per game: Leicester 1.28xGA v 1.81xGA Palace.

Old Post 04-26-21 08:20 AM
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