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CNOTES
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Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

CFL Betting Recap - Week 4

July 22, 2013


League Betting Notes

-- Favorites went 4-0 straight up in Week 4
-- Favorites went 4-0 against the spread in Week 4
-- Home teams notched a 3-1 record in Week 4
-- The 'over' went 3-1 in Week 4

Team Betting Notes

-- Saskatchewan (4-0) continued to roll right along, as they drummed visiting Hamilton (1-3) by a 37-0 score. The Roughriders have allowed a league-low 67 points (16.8 ppg) through the first four weeks.

-- The East Division has been outclassed by the West Division to this point, but Toronto (2-2) appears to be the class of the East. The Argonauts hit the road and scored an impressive 35-19 win at Winnipeg (1-3), moving into sole possession of first place. The Argos, who have 118 points (29.5 ppg) through the first four games, are the only team in the East with more than 91 total points scored.

-- The BC Lions (3-1) and Calgary (3-1) kept Saskatchewan within one-game in the standings, as each team scored double-digit victories at home in Week 4.

-- Montreal (1-3) might have lost in Calgary, but they were part of the week's highest scoring game. The Alouettes and Stampeders combined for 65 points.

-- Edmonton (1-3) fell for a second straight week to BC, and they have now lost three of four games to start the season. In their three losses, the Eskimos are averaging just 14.0 ppg, and they have managed 18.0 ppg overall, making them the CFL's lowest scoring team.

-- The West is where bets are won. Saskatchewan is 4-0 ATS, while BC and Calgary are each 3-1 ATS. Hamilton, in the East Division, has failed to cover in each of their four games.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 07-25-13 07:54 AM
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Posts: 10543

CFL
Dunkel

Edmonton at Montreal
The Eskimos look to take advantage of a Montreal team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 home games. Edmonton is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+5 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

THURSDAY, JULY 25

Game 121-122: Edmonton at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 110.064; Montreal 111.772
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 1 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Montreal by 5 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+5 1/2); Over

FRIDAY, JULY 26

Game 123-124: Calgary at Winnipeg (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 115.532; Winnipeg 115.035
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Calgary by 5 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+5 1/2); Under

SATURDAY, JULY 27

Game 125-126: Saskatchewan at Hamilton (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 114.623; Hamilton 112.135
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 2 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 4 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+4 1/2); Over

Game 127-128: BC at Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 117.398; Toronto 113.894
Dunkel Line: BC 3 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A




CFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, July 25

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EDMONTON (1 - 3) at MONTREAL (1 - 3) - 7/25/2013, 7:30 PM
MONTREAL is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 3-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 4-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, July 26

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CALGARY (3 - 1) at WINNIPEG (1 - 3) - 7/26/2013, 8:00 PM
WINNIPEG is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1996.
WINNIPEG is 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
CALGARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 2-1 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, July 27

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SASKATCHEWAN (4 - 0) at HAMILTON (1 - 3) - 7/27/2013, 7:30 PM
SASKATCHEWAN is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 48-25 ATS (+20.5 Units) in July games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday, July 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BRITISH COLUMBIA (3 - 1) at TORONTO (2 - 2) - 7/30/2013, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Edmonton (1-3) @ Montreal (1-3)-- Alouettes lost last three games, as offense struggles in first year without QB guru Trestman (new coach of Bears); Montreal led 24-0 last week in first quarter at Calgary, lost 38-27, biggest blown lead in CFL history. Als were outscored in second half of all four games (total of 59-33); they're 1-3 despite having turnover ratio of +6, a red flag. Montreal won last six series games, with five of six wins by 10+ points; Eskimos lost their last six visits here, by 36-10-34-17-23-2 points. All three Edmonton losses are by 10+ points. Over is 5-3-1 in last nine series games, 3-1 in Edmonton games.

Calgary (3-1) @ Winnipeg (1-3)-- Bombers allowed 38-35 points in losing both their home games this year, by 5-16 points; they're already -9 in turnovers, coughing ball up 12 times in four games. Stampeders won last seven series games, winning last three visits here by 3-1-11 points, with four of last five visits here going over total; Stamps split their two road games, scoring 21-22 points (they're scoring 41 ppg at home). Calgary has injury issues at QB; SMU alum Mitchell was third Stamp QB to play last week, as they won 38-27 after trailing 24-0 in first quarter. Road team covered all four Winnipeg games this year.

Saskatchewan (4-0) @ Hamilton (1-3)-- Roughriders (-7.5) crushed Hamilton 37-0 in last week's game at Taylor Field, Riders' 16th win in last 19 series games; they're 7-2 in last nine visits here (Hamilton, not Guelph), dogs covered four of last six series games, with five of last seven at Hamilton going over total. Riders are 4-0 this year, with all four wins by 11+ points; they're +7 in turnovers, +10 in sacks and run balll for 155.5 ypg. TiCats allowed 30+ points in all three losses; they're got only two takeaways in four games (-3)- Burris has already been sacked 16 times. In the NFL, this would be a trap game.

BC Lions (3-1) @ Toronto (2-2)-- Knee injury to Argo QB Ray has this game off board; even with Ray, Toronto (+7) lost 24-16 in Week 2 at BC Place, as Lions outrushed Argos 160-34, outgained them 417-249 (led 14-3 at half). BC has beaten Toronto six games in a row and 16 of last 17, winning seven of last eight visits here, last two 29-16/18-9. Six of last eight series games stayed under total, eight of last nine played here. Toronto scored 39-35 points in its two wins, 16-28 in its losses; Lions allowed average of 13.3 ppg last three weeks, in wins by 8-14-10 points. CFL home dogs are 1-3 vs spread this year.




CFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, July 25

7:30 PM
EDMONTON vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Edmonton's last 11 games
Edmonton is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Montreal
Montreal is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Montreal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton


Friday, July 26

8:00 PM
CALGARY vs. WINNIPEG
Calgary is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games on the road
Winnipeg is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
Winnipeg is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games


Saturday, July 27

7:30 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. HAMILTON
Saskatchewan is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing Hamilton
Saskatchewan is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Hamilton is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
Hamilton is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan


Tuesday, July 30

7:30 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of British Columbia's last 10 games when playing on the road against Toronto
British Columbia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




CFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Eskimos at Alouettes: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Edmonton Eskimos at Montreal Alouettes (-5, 48.5)
The Montreal Alouettes are scrambling for a way to bounce back after blowing a 24-0 lead and suffering their third straight defeat. Perhaps they will find it Thursday when they host the Edmonton Eskimos - a team the Alouettes have not lost to since July 30, 2009. Montreal is 6-0 against Edmonton over the last three years but has not looked like the same dominant team under new coach Dan Hawkins, who faces issues with consistency on offense and discipline on defense.

The Eskimos should be happy to head east again after dropping back-to-back games against the BC Lions to fall to 0-3 against West Division opponents. Edmonton’s only victory came in Week 2, when it defeated the Hamilton Tiger-Cats 30-20 in Guelph, Ont. The biggest problem for the Eskimos has been their offense, which has produced a league-low 72 points with starting quarterback Mike Reilly (56-for-100 passing, 644 yards), whose job is likely on the line.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TSN

ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (1-3, 1-3 ATS): Reilly has been effective on the ground, running for 151 yards and one touchdown on 19 carries. Backup quarterback Jonathan Crompton looked good filling in for Reilly in the late stages of Week 4, finishing 4-for-5 for 76 yards and a touchdown. Crompton is 10-for-16 in his first CFL season and has yet to throw an interception. Linebackers JC Sherritt and Damaso Munoz lead Edmonton’s defense with 27 and 26 tackles, respectively.

ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (1-3, 1-3 ATS): Quarterback Anthony Calvillo is off to an uneven start, completing 76-of-129 passes and throwing as many interceptions as touchdowns (four). Calvillo has connected with slotback S.J. Green for 307 yards and three of his four touchdown tosses, while only two other receivers - slotbacks Arland Bruce and Jamel Richardson - have more than 100 receiving yards. Linebacker Chip Cox has two sacks and an interception to add to his league-leading 36 tackles, while safety Kyries Hebert has a team-leading five sacks.

TRENDS:
* Eskimos are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Eskimos are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Montreal.
* Eskimos are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Alouettes are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.

EXTRA POINTS:
1. Hebert, living up to his “Angry Bird” nickname, was flagged twice for unnecessary roughness in Week 4, extending key drives in the early stages of the Calgary Stampeders’ 38-27 comeback victory.

2. Edmonton RB Hugh Charles leads the team with 454 total combined yards.

3. The Alouettes have not lost a home game against the Eskimos since Sept. 23, 2007, but are 0-2 playing at home in Molson Stadium to begin the season.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




CFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CFL Rankings: Week 5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Last week's ranking in parentheses.

1. Saskatchewan Roughriders (1) The Riders look like a CFL juggernaut right now. I guess the only concern is, are they peaking too early? Remember, they'll host the 101st Grey Cup in Regina this fall. A loss is coming, but I'm certainly not interested in standing in Saskatchewan's way right now.

2. B.C. Lions (2) B.C. has benefited from a rather soft schedule over the last few weeks, hosting the Argos before a home-and-home set with the Eskimos. Things will get a little tougher this week (or should I say next week - the game will be played on Tuesday) as they head to Toronto for their toughest road test of the young season.

3. Calgary Stampeders (3) Drew Tate is hurt. Now Kevin Glenn is banged up as well. No big deal. The Stamps have more QB depth than any team in the league, with third-stringer Bo Levi Mitchell more than capable of holding his own as we saw last weekend against Montreal. We'll see if the Stamps can avoid a letdown against a hungry Bombers squad in Winnipeg on Friday.

4. Toronto Argonauts (4) Toronto desperately needed a strong showing in Winnipeg last week and got just that, rolling to a 35-19 victory. Unfortunately, they'll have to soldier on without RB Chad Kackert for the next few weeks, and to make matters worse, QB Ricky Ray is nursing a knee injury but should be good to go by Tuesday night when the Argos host the Lions.

5. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (5) The Bombers aren't doing anything to instill much confidence in their home faithful, but with that being said, neither are the teams below them. Despite winning only once in four games this season, Winnipeg still finds itself just one game back of the East-leading Argos. The Bombers have dropped seven in a row against the Stampeders but will try to reverse that trend on Friday.

6. Edmonton Eskimos (8) I'm going to give the rebuilding Eskimos the benefit of the doubt and bump them up a couple of spots this week. They're just 1-3, but those three losses have come against Saskatchewan and B.C. (twice), arguably the league's two best teams. They didn't quit last Saturday at B.C. Place, and have a winnable game on deck in Montreal on Thursday night. Obviously, QB Mike Reilly's injury status will be key.

7. Montreal Alouettes (7) The Als looked great last week. For a quarter. It was all downhill from there as the offense couldn't punch back once the Stampeders made the necessary defensive adjustments. QB Anthony Calvillo and offensive coordinator Mike Miller are saying all the right things, but body language during games seems to indicate otherwise. Needless to say, the Dan Hawkins era is off to a miserable start in Montreal.

8. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (6) Until the Ti-Cats can get healthy, there will continue to be a few stinkers here and there. We certainly saw one on Sunday as they were trounced 37-0 by the Riders in Saskatchewan. Hamilton won't have to wait to get a shot at revenge as it will host the Riders on Saturday night in Guelph. The good news is, Saskatchewan hasn't swept the season series since 2010.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 07-25-13 03:54 PM
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CNOTES
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Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

Thursday, July 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Edmonton - 7:30 PM ET Edmonton +5.5 500 POD # 2

Montreal - Over 48.5 500 POD # 1




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 07-25-13 03:57 PM
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

CFL
Dunkel

Calgary at Winnipeg
The Blue Bombers look to bounce back from last week's 35-19 loss to Toronto and build on their 8-0 ATS record in their last 8 games following an ATS defeat. Winnipeg is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+5 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, JULY 26

Game 123-124: Calgary at Winnipeg (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 115.532; Winnipeg 115.035
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Calgary by 5 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+5 1/2); Under

SATURDAY, JULY 27

Game 125-126: Saskatchewan at Hamilton (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 114.623; Hamilton 112.135
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 2 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 4 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+4 1/2); Over

Game 127-128: BC at Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 117.398; Toronto 113.894
Dunkel Line: BC 3 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A




CFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Friday, July 26

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CALGARY (3 - 1) at WINNIPEG (1 - 3) - 7/26/2013, 8:00 PM
WINNIPEG is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1996.
WINNIPEG is 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
CALGARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 2-1 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, July 27

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SASKATCHEWAN (4 - 0) at HAMILTON (1 - 3) - 7/27/2013, 7:30 PM
SASKATCHEWAN is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 48-25 ATS (+20.5 Units) in July games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday, July 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BRITISH COLUMBIA (3 - 1) at TORONTO (2 - 2) - 7/30/2013, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Calgary (3-1) @ Winnipeg (1-3)-- Bombers allowed 38-35 points in losing both their home games this year, by 5-16 points; they're already -9 in turnovers, coughing ball up 12 times in four games. Stampeders won last seven series games, winning last three visits here by 3-1-11 points, with four of last five visits here going over total; Stamps split their two road games, scoring 21-22 points (they're scoring 41 ppg at home). Calgary has injury issues at QB; SMU alum Mitchell was third Stamp QB to play last week, as they won 38-27 after trailing 24-0 in first quarter. Road team covered all four Winnipeg games this year.

Saskatchewan (4-0) @ Hamilton (1-3)-- Roughriders (-7.5) crushed Hamilton 37-0 in last week's game at Taylor Field, Riders' 16th win in last 19 series games; they're 7-2 in last nine visits here (Hamilton, not Guelph), dogs covered four of last six series games, with five of last seven at Hamilton going over total. Riders are 4-0 this year, with all four wins by 11+ points; they're +7 in turnovers, +10 in sacks and run balll for 155.5 ypg. TiCats allowed 30+ points in all three losses; they're got only two takeaways in four games (-3)- Burris has already been sacked 16 times. In the NFL, this would be a trap game.

BC Lions (3-1) @ Toronto (2-2)-- Knee injury to Argo QB Ray has this game off board; even with Ray, Toronto (+7) lost 24-16 in Week 2 at BC Place, as Lions outrushed Argos 160-34, outgained them 417-249 (led 14-3 at half). BC has beaten Toronto six games in a row and 16 of last 17, winning seven of last eight visits here, last two 29-16/18-9. Six of last eight series games stayed under total, eight of last nine played here. Toronto scored 39-35 points in its two wins, 16-28 in its losses; Lions allowed average of 13.3 ppg last three weeks, in wins by 8-14-10 points. CFL home dogs are 1-3 vs spread this year.




CFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, July 26

8:00 PM
CALGARY vs. WINNIPEG
Calgary is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 6 games on the road
Winnipeg is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Calgary
Winnipeg is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games


Saturday, July 27

7:30 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. HAMILTON
Saskatchewan is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing Hamilton
Saskatchewan is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Hamilton is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
Hamilton is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan


Tuesday, July 30

7:30 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of British Columbia's last 10 games when playing on the road against Toronto
British Columbia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




CFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stampeders at Blue Bombers: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Calgary Stampeders at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+5, 48.5)

The Calgary Stampeders emerged from their record-setting comeback against the Montreal Alouettes with their third-string quarterback at the helm. Bo Levi Mitchell may see his first career CFL start when the Stampeders visit the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Friday. Starting quarterback Drew Tate suffered an injury to his throwing arm in Week 2 and backup Kevin Glenn left last week’s game in the third quarter with an injury - also to his throwing arm - leaving Mitchell to toss two touchdown passes and seal the 38-27 victory.

Winnipeg also has issues with the health of its quarterback as Buck Pierce is questionable to start this week after being hit hard in the abdomen during a 35-19 loss to the Toronto Argonauts. Pierce, who has thrown five interceptions and two touchdowns, will likely be replaced by backup Justin Goltz, who completed 13-of-15 passes for 170 yards in the second half against Toronto. The Blue Bombers would not elaborate on the severity of Pierce’s injury, which adds more uncertainty to an offense that has not scored more than 20 points in a game since Week 1.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TSN

ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (3-1, 3-1 ATS): Running back Jon Cornish had 109 yards and one touchdown on 11 carries against the Alouettes and is second in the league with 413 rushing yards, behind Saskatchewan Roughriders running back Kory Sheets. No other player has more than 300. Cornish, who led the league with 1,457 rushing yards last year, was limited to 42 yards against the Roughriders in Week 2 - the only time he has been held to fewer than 100 combined yards this season. Defensive lineman Charleston Hughes leads Calgary with four sacks but missed last week’s game because of a wrist injury.

ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (1-3, 2-2 ATS): Pierce is one of many players questionable to play Friday. Wide receiver Chris Matthews and defensive tackles Bryant Turner and JT Gilmore are all suffering from various ailments. Defensive end Alex Hall has six of Winnipeg’s 19 sacks, including the only one against Toronto. Linebacker Henoc Muamba leads the team with 22 tackles and added a sack, but the potential loss of Turner could leave a big hole that the third-year tackle - who is second on the team with three sacks - would need to fill. Running back Chad Simpson was limited to 50 rushing yards last week and is fourth in the league with 256 through four games.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Winnipeg.
* Stampeders are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Winnipeg.
* Stampeders are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.
* Blue Bombers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Stampeders are second in the CFL Power Rankings (behind Saskatchewan) following their home-and-home sweep of the Alouettes. The Blue Bombers are seventh.

2. Winnipeg is the only East Division team not to face a West Division opponent yet.

3. Calgary K Rene Paredes still has a shot at reaching the CFL record for 30 straight made field goals after officials decided that last week’s blocked kick happened behind the line of scrimmage, ruling it a fumble instead of a missed kick. Paredes, named Special Teams Player of the Week, has made 29 consecutive field goals.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




CFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CFL betting: Fade material in home dogs
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Canadian Football league enters Week 5 Thursday night with the Edmonton Eskimos at Montreal Alouettes.

One trend that has jumped out is that of the home underdog.

Of the 16 games played thus far heading into the Week 5, the home dog is 0-4 ATS. Both the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Eskimos are 0-2 ATS as home dogs.

The fifth week of the CFL calendar has a couple of opportunities to visit this trend. The Calgary Stampeders are in Winnipeg to face the Blue Bombers Friday. Winnipeg is currently a 5-point home dog.

Also, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats are 4-point home underdogs with the unbeaten Saskatchewan Roughriders in town Saturday evening.

The final matchup of the week, the BC Lions at Toronto Argonauts, is currently off the board.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 07-26-13 06:54 PM
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

CFL

Friday, July 26

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CFL faves cashing in at better than 70 percent
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It's early in the Canadian Football League season, but favorites have an overwhelming edge so far in terms of betting.

The favorite has posted a record of 13-4 straight up (76.4 percent) after the Montreal Alouettes beat the Edmonton Eskimos Thursday night and covered as 4-point home faves 32-27. Favorites are also 12-5 against the spread.

Faves had a perfect 4-0 ATS opening week to the season and a spotless 4-0 ATS record in Week 4, making it five straight covers for the chalk heading into Friday's action.

Week 5 action continues Friday with Calgary as 5-point road faves against Winnipeg. Saturday sees the Riders travel to Ontario and face the Hamilton Tiger-Cats. The Riders are currently 4-point road faves.

The week concludes Tuesday with the Toronto Argos hosting the B.C. Lions. This matchup is currently off the board with Argos starting QB Ricky Ray hobbling due to a knee injury.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 07-26-13 06:57 PM
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147

Jake The Snake Roberts has been clean and sober for nearly a year.


The former professional wrestler recently updated his Twitter account with the message: “254 days coke free. 33 with out a drink!”

The message was posted six days ago and since there hasn’t been any reports of a relapse that means that Jake The Snake has gone 360 days without touching cocaine.




Bleacher Report notes that Roberts has struggled with substance abuse since his days in the WWE. Some believe that the wrestler’s addiction problem is the main reason why he hasn’t been inducted into the hall of fame.

Thankfully, it looks like Jake the Snake has turned over a new leaf and is committed to staying sober.

Jake’s wrestling days may be long gone but he isn’t done performing. The Snake is currently working on a new film, Heavy Water, which is looking for funding on Kickstarter.

Jake plays a homeless man named Jed in the new movie who offers the protagonist protection has he is introduced to “the family.”

The Kickstarter page reads: “Jake’s experience as a professional wrestler translated into strong performances and brought a powerful presence to his character. His ability to improvise, take direction, and become the character shines through in his

Old Post 07-27-13 12:20 AM
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Most popular NFL prop bets of the offseason

One of the best ways to scratch that football itch in the offseason is betting on the long list of available NFL props.

From the top QBs to which WRs and RBs will rack up the most yards, football fans can wager on just about anything and anyone in the NFL. We talked to sportsbooks to see which props and players are drawing the most action as NFL training camps kick off:

Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos – Total Passing Yards (Under 4,750.5)

Even with the addition of Wes Welker and another camp to fine tune timing with the receivers, prop bettors expect Manning to throw for less than 4,750.5 yards in 2013. Last year, in his first season with the Broncos, Peyton posted 4,659 passing yards.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys – Total Passing Yards (Under 4,725.5)

There was a coup in Arlington this offseason, with Cowboys owner Jerry Jones ripping the playbook out of head coach Jason Garrett’s hands and leaving the offense to Bill Callahan. That could lead to less deep looks for Romo and a more balanced attack. Dallas is even utilizing a pistol offense in camp this summer.

Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks – Total Rushing Yards (Under 1,475.5)

With Russell Wilson’s expanded role in the offense after such a great rookie campaign, prop bettors are expecting a swing in the offense. Seattle added speedster Percy Harvin and the ground game could suffer. Lynch rushed for 1,590 yards, so oddsmakers are already adjusting for a demotion.

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings – Total Rushing Yards (Over 1,750)

So what is “All Day” going to do for an encore? After flirting with the single-season rushing record, Peterson isn’t expected to get close to the 2,097 yards he rumbled for last year. But bettors believe he’ll at least get more than 1,750, with 82 percent of this prop’s action leaning over.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – Most TD Passes

Rodgers connected for 39 TD passes in 2012 and had 45 throws find pay dirt in 2011. He’s involved in as many as eight QB-versus-QB matchups for most TD passes and is drawing the major of action in most of those props. Rodgers is a 3.5-TD fave over Tom Brady, a 1.5-TD fave vs. Drew Brees and a 7.5-TD fave against Eli Manning.

E.J. Manuel, Buffalo Bills – NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year

Action on the former FSU star has move Manuel from +1,200 to +600 to win the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2013. Buffalo has a QB battle on its hands with Manuel trying to win the No. 1 gig over Kevin Kolb. Rams rookie WR Tavon Austin is the RoY fave at +300.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 07-28-13 03:19 PM
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How to Middle NFL Halftime Lines

Articles, NFL by Dave S on July 26, 2013
↔ While the popularity of teasers and parlays has grown over the past several years, NFL bettors still predominantly bet on the spread when placing a wager. With more and more sportsbooks offering live, in-game odds in addition to both 1st and 2nd half lines, bettors have more options than ever. But is there any value betting on these NFL halftime lines?

For those of you who are unfamiliar with halftime betting, many sportsbooks will post odds for the 2nd half of games once they’ve approached the half. This creates a unique betting opportunity for a number of reasons, starting with the fact that you have only around 15 minutes to handicap each game and shop for the best line. It also creates potential surebet or arbitrage opportunities.

For example, let’s say the New York Jets are 14-point underdogs against the New England Patriots but enter halftime with a 14-7 lead. A sportsbook could then post a 2nd half line in which the Pats are 10-point favorites. A bettor could sit back and ride out their current bet — not a bad idea considering you would have a 21-point cushion to work with. However, a risk-adverse bettor could set up a low-risk situation by placing a bet that runs in direct contrast with their original bet.

If that bettor took New England -10 for the 2nd half, they would guarantee that at least one of their bets will win. If New England outscores New York by more than 21 points in the 2nd half, that bettor would win their halftime bet but lose the bet on the game — risking the vig or juice on the bet. If New York either maintains their lead or is outscored by 9 or less, the bettor would win their wager on the game but lose their 2nd half bet. However, if New York is outscored by between 11 and 20 in the 2nd half, that bettor would win both of their bets.

Also known as hedging, placing bets on the opposite side after you have already placed a wager on one side can be used to either cut your losses, or guarantee a profit. Many bettors will want to let their bet ride when it’s looking like an easy winner at halftime. Others know that football is an unpredictable game and will try to minimize risk. Either way, it’s important to figure out whether or not your potential halftime hedge falls between key numbers.

If you’ve already bet Team A at +11 for the game and have the option to take their opponent at an adjusted +3 for the 2nd half, you have created a 14-point middle. This covers key numbers like 3, 7, 10 and 14 and would certainly be worth considering. If your middling opportunity is between 3.5 and 6.5, there is a reduced chance of hitting your middle since it does not contain any common point differentials.

Another advantage to halftime betting is that no sportsbook can watch every game and adjust their lines accordingly. Instead, the halftime lines are typically based on a comparison of the game lines, so if you are watching an event where the score is not indicative of the play, you may be able to take advantage of the soft lines to find a value play.

Will you try to middle NFL halftime lines or would you prefer to ride out your bet when it performs well in the 1st half? Do you like betting halftime lines immediately when they are released, or do you wait until the sharps pick a side?

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Why is a 70% Win Rate Unrealistic When Betting on the NFL?
Articles, NFL by PJ on June 21, 2013 Las-Vegas-Sportsbook
↔ The sports betting industry is one that lacks regulation, meaning anyone can start a company, website or used car salesman persona to start selling picks. Because there is no regulation, handicappers can tout false records and promises of unimaginable wealth in order to obtain business.

While there are many legitimate and transparent handicappers in the industry, there are also an overwhelming amount who use fake names, flashy cars, women of questionable clothing and morals (we’re guessing) and unachievable records to convince new or uneducated bettors to buy their picks.

While this may sound a bit over the top, we often get calls asking why we don’t hit 70% of our games like many of the other services out there. Our response is always that a 70% win rate isn’t attainable over the long-haul.

To explain this in more detail, we analyzed the probability that a sports bettor can win 70% of all wagers to illustrate just how unrealistic this is.

For the purposes of this article, we chose the z-ratio (also known as z-score) to show how many standard deviations away from “expected” an event is.

Example 1: No Edge

This example assumes a handicapper who historically hits 50% of his games, meaning the handicapper does not have any edge when picking games. The data assumes 1,000 plays against the spread (with a vig of -110) over a calendar year, across all major US sports.

Desired Win Rate Odds of Win Rate Probability of Win Rate Z-Ratio
50.0% 1 in 2 50% 0.0
51.6% 1 in 6.3 15.9% 1.0
53.2% 1 in 44 2.3% 2.0
54.8% 1 in 700 0.1% 3.0
70.0% < 1 in a trillion < .0000000001% > 10.0


As you can see, a sports bettor with no edge has only a 2.3% chance of winning 53.2% of his games, which is just above the break-even point of 52.4%.

That same bettor has less than a one in a trillion chance of hitting 70% of his games over the course of 1,000 plays.

Example 2: Good Handicapper

We ran the same analysis above but this time assumed a skilled handicapper who historically hits 55% of his games. The data assumes 1,000 plays against the spread over a calendar year, across all major US sports.

For the record, we do believe there are good handicappers out there that are able to achieve 55% over the long-term, which is a very good win rate.

However, even in the case of a handicapper with a long-term expected winning percentage of 55%, a 70% win rate over a whole season (with 1,000 plays) would still be a hugely unexpected event.

In fact, this is still an almost-impossible “9 standard deviation event” with the odds of a 70% or better win rate occurring less than one in a billion (.0000001%).

Old Post 07-28-13 05:19 PM
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Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

How last ten defending Super Bowl champs did in their first game the next season; notice the last nine all played their opener at home.........

2003-- Buccaneers W17-0 at Philadelphia, +3
2004-- Patriots W27-24 vs Indianapolis, -3
2005-- Patriots W30-20 vs Oakland -7.5
2006-- Steelers W28-17 vs Miami -1
2007-- Colts W41-10 vs New Orleans -5.5
2008-- Giants W16-7 vs Washington -4.5
2009-- Steelers W13-10 vs Tennessee -6.5
2010-- Saints W14-9 vs Minnesota -5
2011-- Packers W42-34 vs New Orleans -5
2012-- Giants L17-24 vs Dallas -5 (6-2-2 vs spread)
2013-- Ravens, +8.5, 49.5 at Denver.

How last ten Super Bowl losers did in their season opener the next year:
2003--Raiders L20-25, @ Tennessee, +3
2004-- Panthers L14-24 vs Green Bay -3
2005-- Eagles L10-14 @ Atlanta -1
2006-- Seahawks W9-6 @ Detroit -6
2007-- Bears L3-19 @ San Diego +7
2008-- Patriots W17-10 vs Kansas City -16
2009-- Cardinals L16-20 vs San Francisco -5
2010-- Colts L24-34 @ Houston -1.5
2011-- Steelers L7-35 @ Baltimore +1
2012-- Patriots W34-13 @ Tennessee -5 (1-9 vs spread)
2013-- 49ers, -5, 50.5 vs Green Bay




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Old Post 07-29-13 03:45 PM
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NCAAF Games of the Year: Spread could flip with Boise at Fresno

Odds are out for the biggest and best games of the upcoming college football season. Covers Experts' Doc's Sports gives you their insight into these marquee matchups and predicts where the odds could move before kickoff.

NCAAF Week 4: Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs (-2)

Past history: The last time Fresno State won or covered against Boise State was 2005. Since then, the Broncos are 7-0 straight up and ATS.

Early look at the Broncos: This game and a season-opening trip to Washington (the Huskies are favored by 2.5 points) are the toughest games standing between the Broncos and another undefeated season. The season-win total sits at just 9.5, though, so oddsmakers aren’t as optimistic as in the past.

Early look at the Bulldogs: Head coach Tim DeRuyter enters his second year with the program off a surprising nine win campaign last year. Senior QB Derek Carr chose to put the NFL on hold to return, so expectations are high.

Where this line will move: The public knows Boise State and has forgotten about the Bulldogs. If the Broncos can beat Washington for the second straight game and enter this game unbeaten then the Broncos will be favored at kickoff.




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Old Post 07-29-13 03:48 PM
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Pac-12 Conference college football preview

Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2013 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine. Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Potential designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

North Division

CALIFORNIA (7/6)

Team Theme: PLUGGING A HOLE IN THE DYKE

After witnessing a losing effort for the 2nd time in three seasons, the Berkeley brass was resolute that the end of an 11-year era with Jeff Tedford was at hand. Enter Sonny Dykes, an instant offense-expert, whose three-year tenure with Louisiana Tech witnessed a spike in offense each season. Unfortunately the only ‘D’ in his playbook is the first letter of his last name as his Bulldogs ranked dead-last in team defense last season while allowing an average 455 YPG in his three-year tenure in Ruston – not good news for a Cal team that slipped 91 YPG on defense in 2012. Dykes will be on the spot to earn every penny of the big fat five-year $9.7M contract he inked with the Bears, as he inherits a squad that lost its starting QB, leading RB and top WR. Even worse, the itinerary is filled with 9 winning teams. Get the super-glue ready.

Stat You Will Like: Sonny Dykes is 14-1 SU and 11-3-1 ATS versus sub .500 opponents.

PASS


OREGON (*8/7)

Team Theme: ADDICTED TO QUACK

After watching Chip Kelly’s big green machine rip the Pac-12 to shreds, going 34-3 in conference play with 31 wins by double-digits (and by an average winning margin of 25 PPG), defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti was asked how in the world does new head coach Mark Helfrich, Oregon’s offensive coordinator under Kelly, improve on that? “It’s kind of, like, not fair,” replied Aliotti. ESPN’s Ivan Maisel adds, “To raise the bar, Helfrich has to raise the crystal trophy above his head. That would be a tall order for any head coach, much less a guy who has never run a program.” Once again, Helfrich will rely on QB Marcus Mariota, RB De’Anthony Thomas and a cast of 11 wide receivers who saw playing time last season.

Stat You Will Like: The Ducks appeared in a BCS bowl game each of Chip Kelly’s four years with the school, the longest current streak in the nation.

PLAY ON: as a dog at Stanford (11/7)


OREGON STATE (*9/8)

Team Theme: RE-BEAVED

The reward for the largest one-year turnaround in school history? Three new retrofit uniforms from the mad scientists at Nike, and a new Beaver logo. That is about the only new look to the OSU football program as they return loaded in 2013 with 294 combined starts back from the 2012 squad (332 if you count the kickers). Head coach Mike Riley, the winningest coach in the program’s history, was forced to play freshmen in 2011 and it paid off in spades last year. He’ll welcome 60 returning lettermen, including starting QBs Sean Mannion and Cody Vaz, to a team suddenly long on experience. A loss to Washington, following a 6-0 start to last year’s campaign, figures to be the circled game on this year’s schedule. We’ll be there.

Stat You Will Like: DC Mark Banker (11) and OC Danny Langsdorf (10) have by far the longest combined tenure (21) of coordinators in the Pac-12.

PLAY ON: vs. Washington (11/23) - *KEY as dog


STANFORD (*6/9)

Team Theme: RULE OF TREE

To say the Cardinal have advanced this program to an exceptional level would be an understatement. Starting with Jim Harbaugh and moving forward under David Shaw, the Cardinal shook a 7-year losing skid to become one of only five teams to score double-digit wins each of the last four seasons, keeping company with the likes of Alabama, Boise State, LSU, and Oregon. Thankfully, with QB Josh Nunes retiring from a bicep injury that was worse than expected, Kevin Hogan (started final six games last season) will be under center. With the graduation of four-year RB Stepfan Taylor, Hogan is also the team’s leading returning rusher. To top it off, the Tree ruled the FBS in sacks last year and returns five of its top six tacklers.

Stat You Will Like: Stanford recorded its first Rose Bowl win in 40 years last season.

PLAY ON: vs. Notre Dame (11/30)



WASHINGTON (*10/7)

Team Theme: PRICE IS RIGHT

The Huskies entered the 2012 season filled with promise off back-to-back 7-win bowl seasons with a quarterback on the verge of stardom. Keith Price was behind center after being recognized as the 7th-ranked signal caller in pass efficiency. Instead, Price regressed and UDub settled on a 3rd straight 7-6 season. Due to a litany of injuries, they force-fed a bevy of sophomores who this year become experienced juniors. Star RB Bishop Stankey, who rushed for 1,439 yards while also hauling in 33 passes, combines with WR Kasen Williams and TE Austin Sefrian-Jenkins to form a lethal trio of skill players – all of whom will find more touches behind a new no-huddle look in 2013. If Price is right, this team can become the conference surprise.

Stat You Will Like: The Huskies beat two Top 10 ranked teams at home last season.

PLAY ON: vs. Boise State (8/31) - *KEY as a dog


WASHINGTON STATE (*8/8)

Team Theme: SNAPPED WINNING STREAK

A streak of 10 winning seasons – and 10 bowl appearances – in 10 years as a collegiate head coach came to a screeching halt for Mike Leach in his debut with the Cougars last year. A 2-1 start dissolved into a 1-8 finish despite the fact that Wazzu led the Pac-12 in passing, while also finishing 9th nationally. Leach’s ‘Air-Raid’ attack welcomes back QB Connor Halliday and his four starting wide receivers. An offensive line that allowed a nation’s-worst 57 sacks last year must step up in order for the team to improve. Meanwhile, look for the forced experience of 17 freshmen that played last year to pay dividends in 2013. After all, Leach has NEVER suffered back-to-back losing seasons.

Stat You Will Like: Leach is 21-3 SU and 20-2-2 ATS at home in lined games when his team owns a .600 or less win percentage.

PLAY ON: vs. Stanford (9/28)


South Division

ARIZONA (7/10)

Team Theme: UPS AND DOWNS

Like the choice of floors on an elevator, the Wildcats have seen offensive and defensive production go up and down the past few seasons. With Rich Rodriguez on board last year, the Cats totaled 6,840 yards (526 YPG), shattering the former school record by over 1,100 yards in 2012 and making it three straight seasons of increased offensive production. On the other side of the coin, the team has witnessed defensive decline over each of the last four years. Thus, the task of shoring up the ‘D’ becomes priority-one this season. Replacing 20 seniors, nine of who were starters at one point or another last season, means Rich Rod will need to push the right buttons in 2013. Let’s hope it’s not the emergency button.

Stat You Will Like: Rodriguez is 11-15 SU and 7-18 ATS from Game 11 out, including 1-13-1 ATS when off an ATS loss.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Washington State (11/16)\


ARIZONA STATE (*6/8)

Team Theme: INSTA GRAHAM

When the Sun Devils ended the season with three straight wins for the first time since 1978, a bevy of ‘firsts’ were suddenly in the books. First-year head coach Todd Graham acquainted 29 players, including 17 true freshmen, with their first action at this level. In addition, Graham became the only coach in FBS history to record 60-plus points in a bowl game multiple (3) times. And to top it off, RB Marion Grice led the nation in TDs per touch (7.5), helping lead ASU to more rushing yards in a season than it has had in the last 25 years. With returning quarterback Taylor Kelly ranked 3rd actively in the nation in pass efficiency, the Devils are the favorites to win the Pac-12 South.

Stat You Will Like: Last season, the Sun Devils led the nation in tackles for a loss, and the P12 in fewest penalties.

PLAY ON: at UCLA (11/23)


COLORADO (*8/9)

Team Theme: YABBA DABBA DOO

If, as they say, you have to hit rock bottom before climbing back up, then Boulder is likely the home of the Slate Rock & Gravel Company these days. No, you won't find Fred or Barney or much of a football team, for that matter. Instead, Mike McIntyre, who went from 1-12 to 10-2 with San Jose State, enters looking to wipe some of the pterodactyl egg off the face of a once-proud program that went winless at home for the first time since 1920, suffering its first shutout home loss in 20 years. Meanwhile, McIntyre inherits 17 returning starters and a team owning the 4th highest returning starts of all FBS squads this season. To which he was last heard muttering, “Don't toy with me, Barn.”

Stat You Will Like: The Buffaloes are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS as favorites versus Pac-10/12 foes since 1999.

PLAY ON: at Utah (11/30)


UCLA (*6/5)

Team Theme: PASSING TEAMA IN PASADENA

After being the first bowl team in NCAA history to end a season two games under .500 two years ago, the call went out to Jim Mora Jr. He responded with nine wins, matching the school record for wins by a 1st-year coach (Terry Donahue, 1976). Sophomore QB Brett Hundley leads the charges in 2013. Hundley set numerous school records, including total offense, passing yards and completions. He also became the first UCLA quarterback to toss for 300-plus yards in three straight games. While a tad short on returning starters, the Bruins feature 26 players with starting experience last season. Coupled with a coaching staff returning virtually intact, less is Mora this season as the Bruins look to claim a third-straight PAC-12 South division title.

Stat You Will Like: The Bruins are 0-9 SU the final three games of the season during the last three years.

PLAY ON: at Stanford (10/19)


USC (8/7)

Team Theme: DRIVING DOWN THE WRONG LANE

In three years with the Trojans, head coach Lane Kiffin has lost 13 games. That’s as many as Southern Cal lost the previous eight years combined. And last year’s defense allowed one of the highest totals of yards and points in school history. Not exactly Pete Carroll numbers… if you get our drift. Kiffin’s first call for help was to Clancy Pendergast, his new defensive coordinator. Despite the key losses of Barkley and Woods, plenty of talent returns in 2013, headlined by Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year Marqise Lee, the team’s first-ever Biletnikoff Award winner. With 61 players back that saw action last year, including 7 of the top 9 RB’s and 5 of the top 6 tacklers, Kiffin needs to get his troops back on the right track – pronto.

Stat You Will Like: The last time USC lost 6 games in a season (2001) they rebounded by going 10-2 the following year, capturing the league title and winning a BCS bowl game.

PLAY ON: vs. UCLA (11/30)


UTAH (*7/6)

Team Theme: BOOK OF MORMON

Mormons in Utah are oftentimes committed to serving on religious missions. This year’s entire Utes team will be on a football mission – a long-time winning program that suffered a rare losing season in 2012 is looking to return to their winning ways. The first thing head coach Kyle Whittingham did was secure the services of Dennis Erickson, who will serve as offensive coordinator with former Ute QB Brian Johnson. Sophomore QB Travis Wilson (6’6” and 240 lbs) will target WR Dres Anderson and TE Jake Murphy, who led the team in receptions and receiving yards last season. They are the sons of former NFL WR Willie ‘Flipper’ Anderson and MLB star Dale Murphy. Look for it to be ‘mission accomplished’ in 2013.

Stat You Will Like: Whittingham is 6-1 ATS as a dog off a double-digit spread loss.

PLAY ON: vs. Oregon State (9/14)




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 07-29-13 03:50 PM
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Cnotes 2013 NFL Preseason Profit Report

Preseason Report - Part I

July 26, 2013

Betting on the NFL preseason is one of the most profitable endeavors you can partake in this football season. The secret to making money in the preseason is the ability to know which coaches are trying to win and which coaches are just going through the motions. That factor in itself will give you a huge edge over the sportsbooks year after year.

Also, I can't say it enough but you also need to be familiar with the history of each team in August. Plus, keeping an eye out on each team's preseason quarterback rotations will also make you turn a nice profit in the preseason. Without further adieu, let's start handicapping!

Preseason has taken on a new look recently

The recently signed collective bargaining agreement means more than stability for the next 10 years. The NFL game is undergoing a change because of the new CBA that will change the quality of play in the preseason.

New rules have modified practice schedules and forced coaches to make changes to their preparation, in these two ways:

Gone are the grueling two-a-day practices that have long been a staple of training camps. In their place, teams are able to have one full contact padded practice per day accompanied by a walkthrough period.
Saying this here are some old and new preseason trends we now have to focus on.

Teams like the Steelers and Ravens that have shown a strong tendency towards playing under games in the preseason with their aggressive play have now seen this neutralized with the new training rules.
The oddsmakers have not incorporated this into their posted totals yet for these teams, and have continued to post ultra-low line totals on the Steelers and Ravens – So keep a look out for some value plays on the over this preseason. If I see any spots that stand out I’ll post them in my plays.
Here are some of my old favorite trends for this upcoming preseason.

New England – Let’s start off with one of my top rated preseason plays, and it focuses on coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots – Belichick has never liked to give anything away to his opponents – just look at one of his press conferences to see what I mean – well something shows up in the preseason every year from New England that we can take advantage of. Week 3 of the preseason is when all teams do their dress rehearsal for the season with all starters on both sides of the ball playing into the third quarter. Well again Belichick doesn’t want his regular season Week 1 opponent to get any films to look at so he doesn’t take this game seriously – and it show shows up in the point spread logs as the Patriots over the past five seasons are a perfect 0-5 against the spread in this situation. So mark down Aug. 22 on your calendar as the Patriots pay a visit to Detroit in their dress rehearsal game.

Tampa Bay - Every year I wait for the Buccaneers opening preseason game as no matter who the head coach is Tampa Bay always comes out ready to play as in Game 1. In the last 7 years they are a huge money maker going 6-1 against the spread to start the preseason. This year the Buccaneers open up against the Ravens on Aug. 8 - What really makes this a solid play this year is that we all know how the Super Bowl champions really don't give a damn about preseason games - so keep an eye out on this match-up this year.

Kansas City Chiefs - Kansas City has been one of the best fade teams in the preseason going an incredible 4-21 (16%) against the spread over the past six years. I definitely look for more of the same this year as I look for new head coach Andy Reid to continue the tradition in Kansas City of not giving a dame about these preseason games. Take a close look at the Chiefs first preseason game this year as Reid was 1-7 against the spread in his last eight opening preseason game in Philadelphia. Kansas City opens up this year at New Orleans on Aug. 9.

Atlanta Falcons - One of my favorite preseason plays goes here on the Falcons as in their 'dress rehearsal' game the last eight years the Falcons have gone a perfect 8-0 outscoring their opposition 187-61 not counting the 2011 abnormal preseason. This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on Aug. 24 when they play Tennessee on the road.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Jacksonville has emphasized offense in his opening preseason game as the Jaguars have seen the Over go a perfect 7-0 in their preseason opener since 2006. This year another high-scoring game can be on tap here as the Jaguars with be playing a Dolphins squad coming in off of a short week of preparation as they play in the Hall of Fame game this preseason against the Cowboys on Aug. 5. Just a heads up their new head coach is defensive minded.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

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Preseason Report - Part II

July 26, 2013

In my first installment, I touched on some great angles that I’ve been following and cashing for plenty of seasons. In this piece, I’ve listed some new developing trends from the last few preseasons.

Baltimore Ravens – The usual letdown from the Super Bowl champs should be apparent this preseason, and add in of what I spoke about above with the training camp rule changes – I can see the Ravens playing higher scoring games this preseason. This trend showed up big time last year with three of the four preseason Baltimore games going Over the posted total.

Buffalo Bills - The Bills have started a money making preseason trend the last three years having seen the Over be the winning side in their last three dress rehearsal games with 38-7, 35-32, and 35-20 finals. This year’s dress rehearsal game is against the Redskins on Aug. 24th. I have to add here that Washington in their last 2 dress rehearsal games have seen a combined 112 points scored - So this play can turn into a preseason double unit play here on the Over.

Carolina Panthers – The Panthers have started a solid trend to look for in their first preseason game – it’s apparent that their coaching staff thru the years has put less emphasis on this first game as Carolina is on a five-year run going 0-5 ATS to start the preseason. This year’s opening game will be against a Bears team on Aug. 9 whom will have a new head coach in Marc Trestman who may be looking to impress with a win in his first career game as head coach.

Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals used to be a team that always played hard in their last preseason game – however maybe it was because they just were playing against a Colts squad back then that just didn’t try in these meaningless preseason games. However in the past three years the Bengals have gone 0-3 against the spread. Something to watch for as once again Cincinnati finishes up with Indianapolis on Aug. 29 as Pagano seems like he wants to win these games.

Dallas Cowboys - We have some history to look back on here as in 2010 the Cowboys played against the Bengals in the Hall of Fame game. The Dallas offense could just manage three field goals and were held out of the end zone. Romo just played part of the first quarter and threw for just 59 yards. So I look for another conservative game plan from the Cowboys here - What really makes me like another lower scoring game in this spot here is that head coach of the Dolphins Joe Philbin came out last year in the Dolphins first preseason game and also used a vanilla offense game plan as Miami could only put up seven points on the scoreboard. This game has Under written all over it.

Plus one last think to mention here is that the last time the Cowboys played in the Hall of Fame game and played five preseason games – they sure didn’t try defensively in their final and fifth preseason game as 52 points were scored. Again something to look for this year as they play a Texans team on Aug. 29 that tends to play higher scoring games in their last preseason game.

Denver Broncos – Since coming over to Denver – John Fox has definitely had the Broncos ready to start the preseason as the result of both of his opening games had the Broncos and the Over being the winning sides - with Denver scoring a combined 55 points and both of these games were on the road. Denver opens up again on the road this year against the 49ers – So the Broncos will be a very live ‘dog in this spot.
However Fox sure hasn’t cared if the Broncos won in their dress rehearsal games as both have been losing efforts against the San Francisco and Seattle. This year’s dress rehearsal game will be on the Aug. 24 against the Rams.

Detroit Lions – The Lions have been a solid play in the preseason as of late going a solid 9-3 over the last three seasons – Plus if we get a closer look Detroit has finished the preseason strong going a perfect 3-0 in Game 4 of the preseason. This season the Lions finish up at Buffalo on Aug. 29th.

Green Bay Packers - Under head coach Mike McCarthy a solid trend has been in effect for years that has seen the Packers incorporate a wide-open game plan over the past six years that has seen the Over go an impressive 16-8 in the preseason. Last year this trend showed a backward trend – which I feel is good for us as I see the oddsmakers lowering these Green Bay totals some this year. You just watch have the Packers come out to start the preseason this year on both sides of the ball.

Houston Texans – The Texans seem to be fitting in nicely with the new CBA restrictions for the preseason as in the last two years the Kubiack lead Texans have gone 6-2 against the spread. Plus they are a perfect 4-0 in their first two preseason games of the year. This year Houston’s first two games will be against Minnesota on Aug. 9, and then against Miami at home on Aug. 17.

Indianapolis Colts – The Colts always never tried in these preseason games going back to when Dungy was the head coach, and were a definite fade candidate every year. However when Chuck Pagano was hired as head coach last season things sure changed – as the Colts went 3-1 against the spread while scoring 114 points in the process – which also saw the Over go 3-1. Something to watch this preseason as I feel the oddsmakers will still be releasing lines based on the Colts prior losing ways in the preseason.

Miami Dolphins – As always when a new head coach is hired we take a step back to see if we can find any preseason trends that we can make some money on. Well with Joe Philbin taking over as the Dolphins coach last season – we sure may have found a strong trend to watch for this preseason – as the Philbin lead Dolphins went a perfect 0-4 both straight up and against the spread last year. Strong watch here especially if the Dolphins start the preseason slow again.

Minnesota Vikings - With Leslie Frazier now settled in as head coach of the Vikings an early preseason trend has developed with the new CBA rules now in effect. Frazier’s style seems to not put much into the first preseason game for the Vikings – however in game #2 it looks like he tries to win this game – as in the past 2 preseason the Vikings are 0-2 in game #1 – while going 2-0 in Game 2. This year the Vikings open up against Houston on Aug. 9th – then head to Buffalo for Game 2.

New York Giants – A solid money-making trend has shown up for the Giants as of late as Tom Coughlin in the past three years has seemed to want to get the Giants last preseason done with in a hurry, which has produced three straight low-scoring games and the undergoing a perfect 3-0. So let’s look for the same result here as Bill Belichick seems very happy to play this kind of game in this scenario when the Giants and Patriots hook up on Aug. 29.

New York Jets – For the other New York team we have another strong trend that can make us some money this preseason – however this one is in the Jets first preseason game of the year – as head coach Rex Ryan has never liked playing this first preseason game, and I feel the new CBA rules have really effected the Jets a lot – as with reduced hitting in workouts it hurts the Jets physical style especially in Game 1 where the Jets under Ryan are a perfect 0-4 against the spread. Look for more of the same here this year as the Jets open up against a Lions team that likes to win their preseason games.

New Orleans Saints – Strong preseason trend we can follow with the Saints as their high-octane offense sure gears up as the preseason progresses. In the past three seasons the Saints have seen the over go a perfect 6-0 in their last 2 preseason games of the year with 51, 57, 60, 41, 51, and 61 points scored. This year the Saints finish up Houston on Aug. 25 and Miami on the Aug. 29.

Oakland Raiders – This Raiders write-up really should be in my favorite preseason trends – however I’ll leave it in this section for now – Oakland no matter who the head coach is always seem to finish the preseason on a down note – as in the past six years they are a perfect 0-6 against the spread in their last preseason game of the year. This year’s finale for the Raiders is on Aug. 29 against the Seahawks. Just to show you how bad the Raiders have been in this scenario lately the Seahawks have outscored them 41-6 the past two years.

Pittsburgh Steelers –In Part I of my report, I talked about how the new CBA preseason rules would affect the physical teams in the league, and the Steelers definitely fit into this mold. The change in style was apparent in last year’s preseason as the usually lower-scoring Pittsburgh games – showed a complete turnaround as the Steelers played three high-scoring games and ended the preseason seeing the Over go 3-1. With the oddsmakers still leaning towards the old trends for the Steelers will give us some solid value plays on the over this preseason.

San Francisco 49ers – With the 49ers just falling short in last year’s Super Bowl we may see a lackluster effort from them this preseason. However with Jim Harbaugh their head coach a repeat of last year’s preseason may be on the horizon where the 49ers went 3-1 both straight up and against the spread. Just watch how San Francisco comes out of the gate this preseason to get a gear on what mindset they have.

Seattle Seahawks - The new rules sure haven’t affected Pete Carroll and the Seahawks – as Seattle over the past two preseasons have gone 7-1 against the spread. Only thing to watch out for this year is that they will be without their sharp defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.

St. Louis Rams – The Rams will be a team to watch this preseason as Jeff Fisher always took the preseason seriously when he was with the Titans, and this sure carried over to the Rams in his first season with them as the Rams went 3-1 against the spread last year. Plus I also have to note here is that St Louis saw the Over go 3-1 in their four preseason games a year ago.

Tennessee Titans – Not too much to look at in Mike Munchak’s start of his coaching career in Tennessee – However I did find that the Titans as a underdog under Munchak have gone 3-1 against the spread the past two years.

Washington - Mike Shanahan has always taken these preseason games seriously, and a strong trend has developed since his return with the Redskins, and that is that Washington is a perfect 3-0 in their dress rehearsal game since Shanahan has returned dominating their opponent in all three of these games. Washington’s dress rehearsal game this year is against the Bills on Aug. 24.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 07-29-13 04:09 PM
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Preseason Report - Part III

July 26, 2013


In Part I and II of the Preseason Report, we discussed trends for teams and more importantly, their coaches. As mentioned before, coaching is a key factor in the preseason and you should be aware of this year's head coaching changes. This season we have eight coaching changes coming into the 2013 season.

Here is this year's list:

Arizona - Bruce Arians - was the former Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator - Arians filled in for head coach Chuck Pagano while he battled leukemia, and went 9-3 in his absence.

Buffalo - Doug Maronne - Syracuse head coach for the past 4 years - his prior NFL experience was with the New Orleans back in 2008 as the Saints offensive coordinator.

Chicago - Marc Trestman - Former coach of the Montreal Alouettes - NFL experience as an Offensive coordinator for the 49ers and Raiders.

Cleveland - Rob Chudzinski - Offensive coordinator of the Carolina Panthers - however the offense will be turned over to Norv Turner.

Jacksonville - Gus Bradley - Former defensive coordinator the last four seasons of the league-leading Seahawks defense.

Kansas City - Andy Reid - head coach of the Eagles the last 14 years.

Philadelphia - Chip Kelly - head coach of the Oregon Ducks - offensive genius of the Ducks high octane offense - first NFL coaching job.

San Diego - Mike McCoy - is the former Broncos offensive coordinator for the Broncos and helped lead Denver to the playoffs the past two seasons with two totally different quarterbacks' styles.

Here are each teams Quarterback Rotations for this Preseason (R - Rookie):

Arizona - Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Ryan Lindley, Caleb TerBush (R - Purdue)

Atlanta - Matt Ryan, Dominique Davis, Sean Renfree (R - Duke), Seth Doege (R - Texas Tech)

Baltimore - Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Caleb Hanie

Buffalo - Kevin Kolb, EJ Manuel (R - Florida State), Jeff Tuel (R - Washington State)

Carolina - Cam Newton, Derek Anderson, Jimmy Clausen, Colby Cameron (R - La. Tech)

Chicago - Jay Cutler, Josh McCown, Matt Blanchard

Cincinnati - Andy Dalton, John Skelton, Josh Johnson, Zac Robinson

Cleveland - Brandon Weeden, Jason Campbell, Brian Hoyer

Dallas - Tony Romo, Kyle Orton, Aaron Corp

Denver - Peyton Manning, Brock Osweiler, Zac Dysert (R - Miami, OH), Ryan Katz (R - San Diego State)

Detroit - Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill, Kellen Moore

Green Bay - Aaron Rodgers, Graham Harrell, B.J. Coleman

Houston - Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, Stephen McGee, Case Keenum

Indianapolis - Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Chandler Harnish

Jacksonville - Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne, Mike Kafka, Matt Scott (R - Arizona)

Kansas City - Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray (R - Tennessee), Ricky Stanzi

Miami - Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Pat Devlin

Minnesota - Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, McLeod Bethel-Thompson, James Vandenberg (R - Iowa)

New England - Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Tim Tebow

New Orleans - Drew Brees, Seneca Wallace, Luke McCown, Ryan Griffin (R - Tulane)

New York Giants - Eli Manning, David Carr, Ryan Nassib (R - Syracuse), Curtis Painter

New York Jets - Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith (R - West Virginia), Greg McElroy, Matt Simms

Oakland - Matt Flynn, Terrelle Pryor, Tyler Wilson (R - Arkansas)

Philadelphia - Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley (Rookie - USC)

Pittsburgh - Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski, John Parker Wilson, Landry Jones (R - Oklahoma)

San Diego - Philip Rivers, Charlie Whitehurst, Brad Sorensen (R - Southern Utah), Mike Hermann (R - RPI)

San Francisco - Colin Kaepernick, Colt McCoy, Scott Tolzien, B.J. Daniels (R - South Florida)

Seattle - Russell Wilson, Brady Quinn, Tarvaris Jackson

St. Louis - Sam Bradford, Kellen Clemens, Austin Davis

Tampa Bay - Josh Freeman, Mike Glennon (R - N.C. State), Dan Orlovsky, Adam Weber

Tennessee - Jake Locker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Rusty Smith, Nathan Enderle

Washington - Robert Griffin III (Will not play in preseason), Kirk Cousins, Rex Grossman, Pat White




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 07-29-13 04:12 PM
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CFL
Dunkel

BC at Toronto
The Argonauts look to take advantage of a BC team that is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 road games. Toronto is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+5 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.
TUESDAY, JULY 30

Game 127-128: BC at Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 117.398; Toronto 113.894
Dunkel Line: BC 3 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A




CFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Tuesday, July 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BRITISH COLUMBIA (3 - 1) at TORONTO (2 - 2) - 7/30/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 56-34 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games off a division game since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 35-19 ATS (+14.1 Units) in road games off a win over a division rival since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1996.
TORONTO is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in home games in July games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-1 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 5-0 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

BC Lions (3-1) @ Toronto (2-2)-- Knee injury to Argo QB Ray has this game off board; even with Ray, Toronto (+7) lost 24-16 in Week 2 at BC Place, as Lions outrushed Argos 160-34, outgained them 417-249 (led 14-3 at half). BC has beaten Toronto six games in a row and 16 of last 17, winning seven of last eight visits here, last two 29-16/18-9. Six of last eight series games stayed under total, eight of last nine played here. Toronto scored 39-35 points in its two wins, 16-28 in its losses; Lions allowed average of 13.3 ppg last three weeks, in wins by 8-14-10 points. CFL home dogs are 1-3 vs spread this year.




CFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:30 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of British Columbia's last 10 games when playing on the road against Toronto
British Columbia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Toronto is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




CFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lions at Argos: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
B.C. Lions at Toronto Argonauts (5.5, 49.5)

The Toronto Argonauts might be without some key pieces on offense when they host the BC Lions on Tuesday. Toronto, which dropped a 24-16 decision at BC in Week 2, lost CFL leading passer Ricky Ray and running back Chad Kackert to knee injuries last week in a road win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Kackert, the leading rusher for the Argonauts, will miss at least a month while Ray is listed as day-to-day for the top team in the East Division.

Following a home-and-home sweep of the Edmonton Eskimos, the Lions have won three straight and have allowed just 40 points in that span after yielding 44 in their Week 1 loss to the Calgary Stampeders. Running back Andrew Harris is driving the offense with 296 yards and four touchdowns on the ground to go with 129 receiving yards and one touchdown reception. Lions quarterback Travis Lulay is enjoying a strong start to the season - with 974 passing yards, seven touchdown passes and only three interceptions.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TSN

ABOUT THE LIONS (3-1): Slotback Nick Moore appears to have taken the place of Geroy Simon in BC’s passing schemes. Moore, who had 449 receiving yards in his first two seasons, has caught 17 passes for 241 yards in 2013 - good for second on the team behind wide receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux. Lulay, who has 173 rushing yards on 19 carries, is on pace to surpass last year’s career high of 477 yards. First-year cornerback Cord Parks has a team-leading two interceptions and shares the club's top honours with 19 tackles. Linebacker Adam Bighill, who has missed two games due to an ankle injury, participated in drills with the starting defensive unit at practice on Friday.

ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (2-2): Toronto signed running back Chris Jennings to replace the injured Kackert. Jennings was released by the Montreal Alouettes last week after rushing for 29 yards on eight carries in one game. The Argonauts released veteran linebacker Brandon Isaac, leaving their defense under the leadership of linebacker Robert McCune (team-leading 27 tackles) and defensive end Jonathan Williams (team-leading two sacks). Slotback Chad Owens is tied with Montreal running back Noel Devine for the league lead with 802 total combined yards.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* The over is 6-0 in Argonauts last six home games.
* The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Toronto.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Toronto is 0-2 against West Division opponents.

2. The Lions have scored 73 of their 104 points in the second half.

3. Argonauts backup QB Zach Collaros, who will likely start if Ray is sidelined, has completed 7-of-10 passes for 112 yards in spot duty this season. He also has 24 rushing yards and two touchdowns.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 07-30-13 05:42 PM
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CFL Betting Notes - Week 5

July 23, 2013

The new CFL season is only four weeks old and the balance of power in the league has already shifted to the West Division with a combined straight up record of 11-5 as opposed to a combined 5-11 record in the East.

Last Friday night, Toronto beat Winnipeg 35-19 as a 3 ½-point road favorite in an East Division matchup but the following day Calgary stormed past Montreal 38-27 as a 7 ½-point home favorite in an inter-divisional showdown. British Columbia went on to hammer Edmonton 31-21 as a nine-point home favorite in this past Saturday’s second game.

Sunday’s game was another lopsided win for the West with Saskatchewan remaining undefeated on the year by posting a 37-0 shutout of Hamilton as a 7 ½-point favorite at home. The West is now a perfect 6-0 SU in inter-division matchups against the East this season.

The following is a brief betting preview for Week 5 of the CFL regular season with the opening pointspread and ‘over/under’ lines provided by TopBet.

Thursday, July 25

Edmonton Eskimos vs. Montreal Alouettes
Point-spread: Montreal -5
Total: 48.5

Edmonton’s loss to BC on Saturday in the back-end of a home-and-home series dropped its overall record to 1-3 both SU and against the spread. Its only win of the year was a 30-20 victory over Hamilton in Week 2 as a seven-point road underdog. The Eskimos have given-up the second most points in the West while scoring the fewest.

The Alouettes continue to struggle on offense as the loss of former head coach Marc Trestman to the NFL could be taking its toll. Montreal has now lost its last three games to fall to 1-3 SU and ATS on the year. The total has stayed UNDER in two of its last three games. Quarterback Anthony Calvillo has thrown four touchdowns and four interceptions in the first four games.

Montreal has won eight of the last nine meetings SU and is 7-2 ATS. It is a perfect 3-0 SU in the last three meetings at home including a tight 27-25 victory last October as a five-point favorite. The total ended as a PUSH on a closing line of 52 in that contest after going OVER in the previous two meetings.

ESPN2 will provide national coverage of this game at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Friday, July 26

Calgary Stampeders vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Point-spread: Calgary -4
Total: 56

Calgary is averaging 31.3 points a game which is the second-most in the CFL, but its defense has also allowed an average of 27.3 points in its first four games. The net result is a 3-1 mark both SU and ATS with the total going OVER in three of the four games. Quarterback Drew Tate remains questionable with a lingering arm injury, but Kevin Glenn has done a good job in relief.

The Blue Bombers have some injury concerns of their own with quarterback Buck Pierce listed as ‘doubtful’ with an abdominal strain. Last Friday’s loss to Toronto dropped them to 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in two of their last three games.

The Stampeders bring a seven-game SU winning streak over Winnipeg into this Friday’s matchup. However, they are just 3-5-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Calgary covered the spread in both games last season and the total has gone OVER in five of the last eight meetings in this series.

Saturday, July 27

Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -4
Total: 56

The Roughriders will put their four-game winning streak both SU and ATS on the line this Saturday night. This followed a five-game SU losing streak (0-4-1 ATS) to close-out the 2012 season. The total has gone OVER in three of their first four games this season and they lead the CFL in scoring with a total of 151 points (37.8 PPG).

Hamilton is 1-3 SU on the year and it has failed to cover in all four games. It also failed to score a single point in the first game of this home-and-home series this past Sunday after averaging 26.3 points in its first three contests this season. The Tiger-Cats are now the lowest scoring team in the East Division while allowing the most points of any team in the CFL.

Saskatchewan has now won five of the last seven meetings SU and is also 5-2 ATS over the same stretch of games. The total stayed UNDER the 59 ½-point line in last Sunday’s game and it has stayed UNDER in three of the last five meetings between the two. One of the teams in this series has scored 30 points or more in six of the last seven meetings.

Tuesday, July 30

British Columbia Lions vs. Toronto Argonauts
Point-spread: OFF
Total: OFF

BC will get an extended break into early next week after this past Saturday’s win over Edmonton which should go a long way towards getting a few of its banged-up players off the current injury list. The Lions have won their last three games both SU and ATS after a disappointing 44-32 loss to Calgary on opening day as 3 ½-point road underdogs.

Toronto quarterback Ricky Ray leads the CFL in total passing yards with 1,203 while completing 75.4 percent of his throws. He has also tossed eight touchdowns against zero interceptions. The defending Grey Cup champs are 2-2 SU and ATS on the year with the total going OVER in three of the four games. Unfortunately Ray left last week’s game early with a knee injury and his status is ‘questionable’ for Sunday, which is why there is no early opening number on this matchup. Also injured last week for the Argos was running back Chad Kackert, who is ‘questionable’ as well for Week 5.

BC has won the last six meetings SU including a 24-16 victory on July 4 as a seven-point home favorite. It is 5-1 ATS during this run and the total has stayed UNDER in five of the last seven games. The Lions’ defense has allowed the second-fewest points in the league this season while the Argonauts come in as the highest scoring team in the East.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 07-30-13 05:46 PM
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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

07/27/13 2-_0-_0 100.00% +_1000 Detail
07/26/13 2-_0-_0 100.00% +_1000 Detail
07/25/13 2-_0-_0 100.00% +_1000 Detail
07/21/13 2-_0-_0 100.00% +_1000 Detail
07/20/13 1-_2-_1 33.33% -_600 Detail
07/19/13 1-_1-_0 50.00% -_50 Detail
07/13/13 1-_2-_1 33.33% -_600 Detail
07/12/13 1-_1-_0 50.00% -_50 Detail
07/11/13 2-_0-_0 100.00% +_1000 Detail
07/07/13 0-_2-_0 0.00% -_1100 Detail
07/05/13 1-_1-_0 50.00% -_50 Detail
07/04/13 2-_2-_0 50.00% -_100 Detail

Totals 17-_11-_2 60.71% +2450

Tuesday, July 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

BC Lions - 7:30 PM ET BC Lions -6.5 500 POD # 2


Toronto - Over 50 500 POD# 1




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 07-30-13 05:50 PM
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NCAAF Games of the Year: Spread could grow when Huskers visit Ann Arbor

NCAAF Week 10: Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines (-3.5)

Past history: The home team has won and covered in both meetings since Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2011. The O/U is 1-1.

Early look at the Cornhuskers: The season-win total sits at 9.5, so expectations are high. With QB Taylor Martinez finally a senior, though, it’s a make-or-break year for coach Bo Pelini. If he doesn’t put together a strong season, especially after last year’s Big Ten Championship game debacle against Wisconsin, his seat will be extremely warm.

Early look at the Wolverines: Coach Brady Hoke is dominating recruiting. Now he needs to show it on the field. QB Devin Gardner fits the system much better than Denard Robinson ever did and the talent is raw but certainly present. With a favorable schedule this could be the year the Wolverines surprise people.

Where this line will move: With a season-win total at just 8.5, expectations are not that high for Michigan. Heading into this one, they have six comfortable wins, a home game against Notre Dame that they can win, and a game at underwhelming Michigan State. The Wolverines will have a strong record and will recapture the public expectations. This line will climb.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 07-31-13 04:07 PM
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NFL preseason betting: Teams with the most QB depth

Handicapping preseason NFL action is a lot like picking winners on the baseball diamond. So much of your wager is riding on one position. In MLB, it’s the starting pitcher. In the NFL preseason, it’s the quarterback – or should we say quarterbacks.

Finding teams with starting experience on the depth chart is key to cashing in during the preseason. Starting QBs may only see a handful of tosses through the first two tune-up games, leaving passing duties to the second, third and sometimes fourth-string pivot.

Here are four teams who hold their preseason betting value long after the No. 1 QB takes off his helmet:

Philadelphia Eagles

QBs: Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley, Dennis Dixon

New head coach Chip Kelly has been working out his platoon of passers this summer, trying to find which QB best suits his up-tempo offense. Vick and Foles split time as the No. 1 last year and there is a movement lobbying for Barkley to take over the offense. Dixon could actually slide into the No. 3 spot if the Eagles drop Vick or Foles following camp.

Cincinnati Bengals

QBs: Andy Dalton, Josh Johnson, John Skelton, Zac Robinson

Dalton is maturing into one of the AFC’s best passers and has some experience behind him on the depth chart. Johnson has starts under his belt, going back to his days with Tampa Bay, and Skelton started 17 games in three years with Arizona. Robinson is currently out of action due to injury, so the preseason load could be spread amongst the top three QBs on the depth chart.

Seattle Seahawks

QBs: Russell Wilson, Brady Quinn, Tarvaris Jackson

Wilson’s sublime rookie campaign has the Seahawks looking to air it out a little more in 2013. However, Seattle may be without offseason addition WR Percy Harvin for the year and will use the preseason to fill that void in the WR corps. Quinn had 12 starts during this tenure in Cleveland and was the No. 1 for eight games in Kansas City last year. Jackson has 34 career starts, including 14 with Seattle in 2011.

Houston Texans

QBs: Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, Case Keenum, Stephen McGee

Schaub passed for more than 4,000 yards, starting all 16 games for the Texans last year. Yates picked up starting stripes when Schaub got hurt in 2011, taking first-team snaps in five regular season games and two postseason performances. Keenum hasn’t seen any regular season action but has a stud passing pedigree, breaking records during this college days. McGee was buried on Dallas' depth chart for a few seasons but was actually impressive when he did get time under center.
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