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lippsman
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Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 10835

History lesson for TB at Pens game 7

Well here it is, the game we all hope for, a game 7 to decide on who goes to the cup. You would think that home team would be a slam dunk with a high winning percentage, but lets see what history tells us.

Not as high as you would think, the home team in this situation is hitting at a 57.5% and with a very low sample of 30 games for the Semifinal round it hits at a much better 63.3 %. But the Pens are a huge -210 for tonight, so that's a huge no go !!!! Even with using the Semifinal numbers it's still not enough to cover that line.

Now the public is all over the Pens like you would expect and the oddsmakers have opened the line to show that, but no way in hell should they be favored this high. The public has moved this line at least .20 across the board.

Remember home doesn't mean squat in the NHL and you are going to pay the premium price if you take the Pens, but once again that huge payback on TB is the play in my opinion and the opinion of history. But if you just gotta take Pens and you think they will win, make sure to play them on the -1 line instead of the -.5

BOL

Old Post 05-26-16 05:56 PM
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dg84


Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 1178

I believe Tampa is 5-1 all-time in game 7's with the Pens sitting at 7-7, but Pittsburgh is only 2-7 at home in game 7's, which I found surprising.

Old Post 05-26-16 10:43 PM
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Showstoppa
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Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 4829

I am playing the under 5' expecting a lot of checking and some solid D

Old Post 05-27-16 12:22 AM
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usc1990
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Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 6863

I'll tail you Showstoppa. You know I love me the unders.

Old Post 05-27-16 12:52 AM
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Showstoppa
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Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 4829

One period down......just hope we don't have a 3 goal second period and we are looking pretty good USC

Old Post 05-27-16 03:24 AM
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usc1990
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Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 6863

$$$

Nailed it. Great job my brother.

Old Post 05-27-16 06:00 AM
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lippsman
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Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 10835

Very nice pick !!!!!

Old Post 05-27-16 02:58 PM
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