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RDTrains
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Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 12050

MNF 11/30

I have a system in the NFL when the outright winner is predicted with at least 50%-49% edge and they are a dog. These plays are 15-4-1 ATS YTD. Tonight's game has Balitimore with a 60% chance and these plays are 2-0-1 this season with Houston the last outright winner vs the Jets in Week 11.

The Ravens have disappointed this year going 3-7 SU and 1-7-2 ATS. Yet they have been in every game, their worst loss this year was by 8. Sure they are missing their starting QB & RB but what has Cleveland done exactly? The Browns cannot run the ball, their rushing offense is 31st and their rush defense is 29th. Harbaugh is 13-2 SU in this series (6-1 in Cleve) and Balt is 10-2 SU in their last MNF appearances.

And then there is this ...

Ravens-Browns is biggest Monday night decision of year

Tonight's matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns may lack national interest, but it's drawing big money in Las Vegas. The Browns opened as 1.5-point favorites, but have been bet all the way up to -3.5 (-115) at the MGM. Rood said Sunday night that he had taken less than $500 in bets on the underdog Ravens. One hundred times more money had been bet on the Browns, he added.
"It'll easily bet the biggest Monday night decision of the year," Rood said. "It's just a huge, huge decision. " CG Technology was in a similar position and reported taking a six-figure bet on the Browns on Sunday morning. "We have a ton of money on Cleveland," Simbal said Sunday night. "In fact, 99.3 percent of the money is on Cleveland so far."

My play: Balt +5

Old Post 11-30-15 09:21 PM
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ronnie111
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very confusing....why is this dog the highest betting game on MNF so far this year. i wouldn't bet this game with counterfeit money. no wonder i'm losing my a$$ on NFL plays.

Old Post 12-01-15 12:05 AM
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
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heck i'll join in, will add to the Prime Time 1H under sitting at 28-8 on the season, also McCown is 1-6 as a favorite with 5 outright losses

Old Post 12-01-15 12:10 AM
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usc1990
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Registered: Sep 2005
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Ronnie,

I think what he's trying to say is that it's the biggest game in terms of how one sided the money has been coming into the books. Why everyone is unloading on the Brownies is only a question the sharps can answer.

Old Post 12-01-15 12:40 AM
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tonyvegas
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Registered: Dec 2003
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They should of asked Rood about the Dal/ Car line on Thanksgiving. Would of loved that response. Still resonating within the gambling community.

Old Post 12-01-15 12:44 AM
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RDTrains
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Ronnie

You are reading it wrong. In the system I use it has Baltimore with a 60% chance to win. That has nothing to do with any betting percentages on this game.

And tonyvegas, I dont care what the actual betting precentages were in Carolina/Dallas, my system had Carolina winning 65% of the time so the system got it right. That's all I'm counting on this time.

Old Post 12-01-15 01:33 AM
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tonyvegas
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..."These plays are 15-4-1 ATS YTD. Tonight's game has Balitimore with a 60% chance and these plays are 2-0-1 this season. "...

If I may ask, How many years for the 13-4-0 record ?

Old Post 12-01-15 01:41 AM
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tonyvegas
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Keep hitting your percentages. That is what counts.

Old Post 12-01-15 01:44 AM
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BIG BAD BILL
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I am in with Baltimore!




2008-2018
2691-2398
53%

You Miss 100% of the Shots You Never Take.

Old Post 12-01-15 01:45 AM
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RDTrains
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tonyvegas

These plays are 15-4-1 ATS YTD. That's this season, no idea why you are asking aboout years.

Within that 15-4-1 ATS record if it predicts a dog to win outright when the percentage is 60% or greater it is 2-0-1 (2-1 SU).

Old Post 12-01-15 01:50 AM
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tonyvegas
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I see now. I miss understood. I thought you were hitting 15 out of 20 plays as dogs.
Thanks.

Old Post 12-01-15 01:54 AM
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ronnie111
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that makes more sense,,,gl rd.

Old Post 12-01-15 02:07 AM
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wimpy


Registered: Oct 2003
Posts: 456

Long time for me

If y'all don't mind I am gonna jump on your stat.

Old Post 12-01-15 02:20 AM
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wimpy


Registered: Oct 2003
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Thanks

Nice call.

Old Post 12-01-15 05:50 AM
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diamondjim
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I {heart} Ray




@1diamondjim (twitter)
Location : Boston, Mass

Old Post 12-01-15 06:01 AM
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RDTrains
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Winna Winna

Matt Schaub sux balls. Guess what, if the Ravens are a dog next week I'm on them again ...

Old Post 12-01-15 06:47 AM
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Bromoe
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Baltimore +5 1/2

Some books put up Miami -4.5 and the sharps pushed it to -5.5

Old Post 12-01-15 07:37 AM
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RDTrains
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Bromoe

Oh boy!

Old Post 12-01-15 07:38 AM
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Bromoe
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FYI

About ten minutes ago the books pulled down..

New England -9.5
Miami -5.5
Pittsburgh -4.5

New England line was pulled down twice today. Gronk is out?

No clue about Pittsburgh and Miami.

Injuries?




They call Alabama the "Crimson Tide." Call me Deacon Blues.

Old Post 12-01-15 08:03 AM
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RDTrains
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NE line is down because Philly QB is Undecided. No idea about Miami.

Old Post 12-01-15 11:20 AM
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