tonyvegas 4-5 (8-6 run, up +1.2 units)xx
Brutus5775 0-1 (90-50 run)
Zac 1-1 (4-2 run +1.35)x
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GS over means all 8 games. NJ is not one of the games I'm counting on a total of 8. The line of 5 looks accurate. I'm just looking for a total of 5 in this game.
NJ under - last 5 games NJ 1.4-2.6 ANA 2.8-3.6
ANA had a big loss to NYR. If I remove that game they're avg is 2.8-2.8. I see a 3-2 ANA win. I think un5+100 is ok, but very likely to push. If the line had enough plus money it would have better value to me.
NJ is out of it. How much are they going to try? I've watched games on TV this season where NJ tried real hard until that 3rd period goal put them behind by 1 with only 5 minutes to play. At that point they've given up and let another 1-2 in the net. ANA is in the playoffs. They do have home ice to play for. I just don't trust NJ to play hard at the end of the 3rd if they are out of it. ANA in the past month is 5-3-5 to 5 goals.
Other possibilities: NJ TT un2.5-150. In the past month this bet would be 8-5. But a lot of those lost TTu2.5 were against bad teams. Against playoff teams NJ 5-1 in the past month. NJ is a sold under TT 2.5. -150 is a lot of chalk but I like this bet. Against a playoff team like ANA NJ will not likely get a 3rd goal.
NJ u5.5-165. You win those 3-2 or 4-1 games. But you only get 61 cents on the dollar. The cost of 65 cents for the hook is fair price.
If I bet this game.... my choices in order:
ANA-155 (stay under -170)
NJ un5.5-140 (if it gets that low)
NJ TT un2.5-150 (under -150)
CHI/WIN
Chi numbers do not great over the last month. Their average game is 2-3. Losing too games to not great teams. Offensive scoring is down for CHI. Crawford in net, but he's 1-3 in his 4 games. Save pct down 3% in those games. But the offense isn't scoring like it did.
WIN has a hard 7 games in a row. So far 1-1 with 5 to go. They win 3/5 in this series they can make the playoffs. In the past 5 games their avg is 3-2 games. If WIN offense keeps the scoring pace they are on, they'll blow past a 5 total. I like the line of ov5-122 better than un5+112.
Better than the OU I would like a side. WIN has better value to me here. I'd like to play it safe with a WIN+1, but that line is now -196. Too high. The game is later, so if the line moves I might bet the WIN+1 at -180. I also think they's a little value in WIN TT ov2.5-105.
Brutus - I think NJ un5 is ok. I don't like WIN un5.