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wildcat76
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Registered: Dec 2005
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VR Steam Read and Market Analysis

The Panthers are currently receiving 22% of bets, the most lopsided playoff game since Jan. 3, 2009. (SD beat IND w/ 21% of bets)

Yet CAR has moved from +2.5 to a pk. Panthers are receiving 22% of bets, most lopsided playoff game since 1/3/09.

Old Post 01-12-14 03:23 PM
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jtsachs
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Posts: 1444

Sounds like a Carolina play to me...

Thanks Wildcat!

Old Post 01-12-14 03:49 PM
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wildcat76
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Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)

I have the ultimate respect for the Panthers defense, however, we've seen Colin Kaepernick take his game to another level in the playoffs time and time again, and I expect that to be the case again on Sunday afternoon.

Cam Newton has played on the big stage before (in SEC and BCS Championship Games), but the NFL playoffs are another animal. He'll be up against a 49ers defense that is playing 'angry' right now (credit that quote to former 49er and NFL Network analyst Eric Davis) - a unit that should be able to control a good, but not great receiving corps.

Take: Kaepernick

Most rushing yards

Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers) vs. DeAngelo Williams (Carolina Panthers)

I supported Frank Gore last Sunday against Green Bay, but I'm switching gears this week.

I believe we'll see the 49ers take a more pass-heavy approach against an aggressive Panthers defense on Sunday. Gore will get his share of carries, but I'm not sure he'll create a lot of 'splash' plays.

While DeAngelo Williams hasn't been all that consistent, he does boast big play potential and could rip off a couple of big runs if the 49ers come in a little too focused on Cam Newton.

Take: Williams

Most pass receptions

Keenan Allen (San Diego Chargers) vs. Julius Thomas (Denver Broncos)

If this were a play on which receiver would have a bigger impact on the final result, I might be inclined to back Julius Thomas, as he likely has greater touchdown potential. However, when it comes to receptions, I'll go with Keenan Allen.

Allen was a virtual non-factor in last week's win over the Bengals, but that only serves to give us better line value here. The Chargers know that he needs to play a bigger role in the offense this Sunday if they're going to pull off another shocker in Denver. If they're playing from behind and Philip Rivers is forced to sling it all over the field, that suits our purposes even better.

Take: Allen
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Old Post 01-12-14 03:56 PM
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wildcat76
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NFL DUNKEL

SUNDAY, JANUARY 12

Game 115-116: San Francisco at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 139.663; Carolina 140.790
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1; 46
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+2); Over

Game 117-118: San Diego at Denver (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 142.848; Denver 140.518
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Denver by 10; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+10); Under

Old Post 01-12-14 03:57 PM
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Capping NFL rematches

What to keep, throw away for the Divisional Round

Another week, another round in the NFL Playoffs and another slate of three rematches from the regular season as Wild Card Weekend breaks way into the AFC and NFC Divisional Playoffs.

Once again, we will be looking at what to keep from the previous meeting and what to throw away as team collide for a second time this weekend.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (Pick, 42)

Original meeting: 10-9 Panthers (Week 10)

What to keep: Both of these teams are built from defense and it was evident during their Week 10 clash when they failed to combine for more than 20 points in one of the lowest scoring matchups of 2013. Carolina gives up 15.1 points per game while the 49ers aren't too far off allowing just 17.2. It was no surprise that their original meeting was a drag em' out, low-scoring affair, and this is a game that once again could be reminding us all of when NFL playoff games were won with defense.

What to throw away: Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree were both non-factors in the Panthers' 10-9 win in Week 10. Davis left the game early from concussion and Crabtree has recently returned to peak form after being injured at the start of the regular season. Both were big contributors in the Niners road win in Lambeau with Crabtree catching eight passes for 125 yards and Vernon Davis hauling in a TD pass. If those two can continue to produce, the Niners will likely have a higher chance of success against a stingy Panthers defense.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-10, 54.5)

First meeting: 28-20 Denver (Week 10)
Second meeting: 27-20 Chargers (Week 15)

What to keep: Sweeping the Kansas City Chiefs and beating the Indianapolis Colts this season, the Chargers have shown up when playing top teams during the regular season, and showed up again last week in their win over the Cincinnati Bengals. They defeated the Broncos on the road and they only lost by one score in their loss to Peyton Manning at home. If their previous encounters are any indication this game should be decided by single digits based on the numbers.

What to throw away: Denver's rushing game was non-existent in their loss as the Broncos could only muster 18 rushing yards in their last meeting. Denver manages 117 rushing yards per game so expect that trend to reverse, especially with a rested offensive line/backfield that is motivated to help Manning lead the Broncos to redemption after their shocking upset to the Ravens in this game last season at home.

Old Post 01-12-14 03:58 PM
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Wayne Root

SUNDAY NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF GAMES

INNER CIRCLE---DENVER
On Sunday, the San Diego Chargers will invade Mile High Stadium to take on the Denver Broncos. The Chargers ended the season playing some great football. They ended the season beating the Broncos and the Chiefs. They are coming off of a game in which they dominated the Cincinnati Bengals. The Broncos will be well rested and sporting the league’s most potent offense. This year, Peyton Manning threw for 5,477 yard and 55 touchdowns. Running back, Knowshon Moreno, rushed for more than a thousand yards on the season, even being out several weeks an injury. The Denver defense will have to be able to stop the running game of the Chargers if they are to give the offense a chance to get going. After defeating the Bengals 27-10, the Chargers will be looking forward to upsetting the Broncos one more time. However, it is very difficult to beat the same team the same season especially when they last played about 3 weeks ago.Defense used to win in playoff games but not any more. With the rule changes made to the QB's, WR's and the restraints placed upon the defenses, it's all about scoring!! Peyton Manning knows after last season brutal loss against Baltimore that time may be running out. TAKE DENVER
________________________________________
____

Pinnacle---CAROLINA....DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR
The San Francisco 49ers will invade Bank of America Stadium in order to take on the Carolina PanthersThey played their first playoff game against the Green Bay Packers, who were more than game for this one but did manage to move to round 2. The 49ers had a great season by most standards, but suffered the
consequences of being in the same division with the Seattle Seahawks. This meant that the Niners had to enter the playoffs by way of wildcard birth. Wild Card teams that win their first game and then hit the road for game 2 almost never cover the pointspread.The Panthers got off to slow start this season, but they picked up steam with an 8 game winning streak that placed them on top the NFC South. They have played great on the defensive end of the ball. Quarterback, Cam Newton, has had a solid season, throwing for 3,379 yards and 24 touchdowns. Smart money lit up the Sportsbooks after hearing that Steve Smith is ready to play. Public perception is the 49ers have advantage on defense and maybe even at the QB spot but if you watch the games this year or have looked at the numbers neither are true. Just as dominant will be the Carolina defense, since week 6 Panthers have only given up over 20 points once and they keep it going this week. TAKE CAROLINA

Old Post 01-12-14 04:00 PM
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Jason Sharpe

*** January Game of the Month ***

6 Unit Play Take #115 San Francisco -1 over Carolina (1:00pm est):
The San Francisco 49ers offense that we have seen in the post-season these last two years looks nothing like their regular season version of it. We seen a much more explosive 49ers offense, one that averaged almost 35 points per game last year during the playoffs while riding the arm and the legs of their young quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Though he had a decent season overall this year, you could tell early on that San Francisco's head coach Jim Harbaugh (a former quarterback himself) didn't want to put the young qb at risk of an injury during the regular season. Last weekend we saw again that the 49ers were saving the best Kaepernick for the post-season.

San Francisco is probably the most complete team in the NFL as they are solid on both the offense and defensive lines. They also have strong special teams units and are extremely well coached with arguably the fewest weaknesses of any team in the NFL. The one area of concern for them has to be with their passing game but that now looks to have gone up another level with the return of wide receiver Michael Crabtree who has slowly been working himself back into shape after returning from an injury late this season. Add in the new and improved San Francisco offensive game plan focusing on Kaepernick's strengths and what you have is a 49ers offense that matches the rest of this very good team.

Carolina turned their season around after a 1-3 start to the year. This was a team who was looking like they would be firing their head coach but instead they ended the season with just one loss in their last twelve games. A lot of the credit goes to a defense that played at high levels for most of the year. They did seem to catch some breaks scheduling wise as they didn't face many of the top quarterbacks this season. In fact they only played five games this year versus teams with a winning record and went 3-2 in those contests. San Francisco on the other hand played eight such games going 4-4 overall.

They say championship teams turn it up in the playoffs. You could see the extra intensity last week on the San Francisco sidelines from head coach Jim Harbaugh, to quarterback Kaepernick and all the way down. This is a veteran group who expects to go on the road and win. The moment here in this one won't be too big for this team. With a line around pick'em that means all they have to do is find a way to win this game for us to cash our ticket. I am not sure I trust another team or coach more so than I trust the the 49ers and Harbaugh to take care of business.

Take San Francisco here.

Old Post 01-12-14 04:02 PM
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Prediction Machine

Against the Spread Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):

115 1:05 PM SF @ CAR -1 3.1 55.3%

117 4:40 PM SD @ DEN 10 -8.3 54.5%

Straight-Up Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):

118 4:40 PM @ DEN SD 33.9 25.6 69.0%

115 1:05 PM SF @ CAR 21.1 18.0 58.1%

Over/Under Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):

118 4:40 PM SD @ DEN 54.5 59.5 Over 56.6%

116 1:05 PM SF @ CAR 42 39.2 Under 55.1%

Old Post 01-12-14 04:03 PM
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LA Syndicate - CBB Oregon, Utah, Arizona State

Pinnacle Syndicate-Carolina Panthers

LA Syndicate - NFL Playoff Game of the Year - 49ers pk (-110)

Chicago Syndicate-San Fran 49ers ML (-130) 2.6units

Chicago Syndicate - NFL Broncos Game & 1st Half, NBA Grizzlies, CBB Purdue, Ohio State, Illinois

Old Post 01-12-14 04:16 PM
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#801 CLEVELAND @ #802 SACRAMENTO
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, FSN Ohio (Cleveland), CSN California (Sacramento) - Line: Kings -3, Total: 204) - The Sacramento Kings finally turned in a solid effort against a sub-.500 team and will look for another when they host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday. The Kings knocked off contenders such as Miami, Houston and Portland in the past two weeks but had trouble with the likes of Philadelphia and Charlotte before defeating the Orlando Magic 103-83 on Friday. The Cavaliers took the opener of their five-game road trip at Utah 113-102 on Friday.

The win over the Jazz improved Cleveland’s NBA-worst road mark to 3-15 but provided a more complete picture of the team as Luol Deng made his debut after being acquired from Chicago. Deng scored 10 points in 21 minutes as he settled into a faster-paced offense than the one the Bulls ran post-Derrick Rose. “I’m really excited,” Deng told reporters after his first game with the Cavaliers. “I see the way guys are setting a screen, where we are scoring from. I just want to bring in something that we don’t have, whether it’s posting up or defensively getting the guys going.”

•ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (13-23 SU, 17-19-0 ATS): Cleveland has won back-to-back games - not coincidentally the two games since Kyrie Irving’s return from a three-game absence due to a knee injury. Irving collected 25 points and eight assists against Utah and stands to benefit from Deng drawing some attention from the defense. “I know that (Deng’s) going to continue to get better every single game,” Irving told reporters. “I’m looking forward to continuing to play with him.” Deng drew praise from coach Mike Brown for his presence on the bench. “I like the stuff he was saying to our guys at halftime, before the game, in the huddles and during the flow of action,” Brown told reporters.

•ABOUT THE KINGS (12-22 SU, 14-19-1 ATS): Sacramento made its big trade last month when it acquired Rudy Gay from the Toronto Raptors. Gay is proving to be a solid scoring compliment to DeMarcus Cousins and Isaiah Thomas and is averaging 20.6 points on 51.4 percent shooting in 14 games with the Kings after struggling to 19.4 on 38.8 percent from the field in the first 18 games with the Raptors. Sacramento tends to struggle is on the defensive end, where it had yielded at least 100 points in 10 straight games before clamping down against the Magic.

•PREGAME NOTES: The Kings took both meetings last season by a total of nine points.... Cleveland F Tristan Thompson has recorded a double-double in three straight games and four of the last five.... Sacramento rookie G Ben McLemore lost his starting spot and has totaled seven points on 3-of-19 shooting in the last four games.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, SACRAMENTO covered the spread 581 times, while CLEVELAND covered the spread 394 times. *EDGE against the spread =SACRAMENTO. In 1000 simulated games, SACRAMENTO won the game straight up 652 times, while CLEVELAND won 328 times. In 1000 simulated games, 491 games went over the total, while 482 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In 1000 simulated games, SACRAMENTO covered the first half line 558 times, while CLEVELAND covered the first half line 442 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 501 games went under first half total, while 463 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SACRAMENTO is 16-14 against the spread versus CLEVELAND since 1996.
--CLEVELAND is 16-15 straight up against SACRAMENTO since 1996.
--18 of 30 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--SACRAMENTO is 17-13 versus the first half line when playing against CLEVELAND since 1996.
--17 of 31 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Cavaliers are 2-8-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
--Underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
--Road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
--Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
--Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.

--Kings are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
--Under is 6-1-1 in Kings last 8 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
--Over is 5-1 in Kings last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
_______________________________

#803 ATLANTA @ #804 MEMPHIS
(TV: 6:00 PM EST, SportSouth (Atlanta, Memphis) - Line: Grizzlies -4, Total: 193.5) - The Atlanta Hawks look to follow up an impressive homestand with a road win when they visit the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday. The Hawks went 2-4 after star center Al Horford's season-ending injury before rebounding at home this week with wins over Eastern Conference-leading Indiana and Western Conference standout Houston. Atlanta posted its best defensive effort of the season in an 83-80 triumph over the Rockets on Friday.

Memphis is also surviving without a key player as it has gone 2-1 since a hand injury sidelined guard Tony Allen, who joined center Marc Gasol on the list of absent starters. Point guard Mike Conley picked up the slack with 31 points in a 104-99 victory over Phoenix on Saturday, the team's sixth win in 10 games following a 1-7 stretch. The Hawks swept the two-game series last season and have won three straight in Memphis.

•ABOUT THE HAWKS (20-17 SU, 21-16-0 ATS): Horford ranks among the franchise's all-time leaders in blocked shots and rebounds, among other categories, but Atlanta has managed to step up its game on the defensive end in his absence. After limiting the Pacers in a 97-87 victory, the Hawks held the usually hot-shooting Rockets to a 41.4 percent mark from the floor while forcing 16 turnovers. Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver scored 20 points apiece as Atlanta survived some poor shooting of its own (37.2 percent) in improving to 14-5 at home.

•ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (16-19 SU, 15-19-1 ATS): When Memphis made its rise last season, it did so largely on the strength of dominance on the glass and some solid interior defense, both of which were aided by the presence of Gasol. Without one of their big men in the fold, forward Ed Davis has begun to step up, recording 10 points and a career-high 17 rebounds against the Suns. Davis has three double-doubles this month after recording just one in his first 30 games and gives the Grizzlies a better chance to weather the storm until Gasol returns, possibly before the month is out.

•PREGAME NOTES: Hawks PF Mike Scott averaged 14.5 points on 12-of-19 shooting in 17.5 minutes off the bench during the 2-0 homestand.... Atlanta entered Saturday ranked fourth in the NBA in 3-point attempts per game (25.3) while Memphis was last (14.2).... Memphis is 16-10 against teams outside its division, compared to 0-9 versus divisional opponents.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS covered the spread 500 times, while ATLANTA covered the spread 470 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS won the game straight up 605 times, while ATLANTA won 375 times. In 1000 simulated games, 599 games went over the total, while 401 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

--In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS covered the first half line 492 times, while ATLANTA covered the first half line 472 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 555 games went over first half total, while 445 games went under first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ATLANTA is 19-10 against the spread versus MEMPHIS since 1996.
--ATLANTA is 21-11 straight up against MEMPHIS since 1996.
--16 of 30 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--ATLANTA is 19-13 versus the first half line when playing against MEMPHIS since 1996.
--18 of 30 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Hawks are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
--Hawks are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Memphis.
--Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

--Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Under is 6-0 in Hawks last 6 overall.
--Under is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Hawks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

--Over is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 overall.
--Over is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
_______________________________

#805 MINNESOTA @ #806 SAN ANTONIO
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, FSN North (Minnesota), FSN Southwest (San Antonio) - Line: Spurs -6, Total: 211.5) - Kevin Love took the unusual step of calling out his teammates publicly after a tough loss and the tactic seemed to work - at least for one night. The Timberwolves will try to carry that momentum to a second straight triumph when they visit the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday. Love was upset that certain reserves did not join the huddle or encourage teammates down the stretch of a 104-103 loss to Phoenix on Wednesday but had no complaints after trouncing Charlotte on Friday.

The 119-92 victory over the Bobcats brought Minnesota back to .500 at 18-18, and it will take its ninth shot at going above the even mark. The Spurs will try to make it 0-9 as they aim for a fourth straight win despite Manu Ginobili (hamstring) and Tiago Splitter (shoulder) dealing with injuries. San Antonio won six of its last seven games to take over the top record in the Western Conference and overcame 42 points from Love to post a 117-110 home victory over the Timberwolves on Dec. 13.

•ABOUT THE TIMBERWOLVES (18-18 SU, 20-16-0 ATS): Love recorded 19 points and 14 rebounds Friday before sitting on the end of the bench and watching the second unit he had chastised earlier close out the win. J.J. Barea was one of the targets of Love’s comments and he ended up with seven points and five assists against the Bobcats. “You just got to stay with it,” Barea told reporters. “It’s a long season. You’ve got to keep getting better. We’re going to have a chance. You gotta take advantage.”

•ABOUT THE SPURS (28-8 SU, 19-17-0 ATS): Ginobili could be ready to go Sunday, though San Antonio did not have much need for the veteran swingman while crushing Dallas 112-90 on Wednesday. The Spurs are averaging 111.4 points in their last seven games and got 17 points off the bench from Marco Belinelli out of Ginobili’s usual spot Wednesday. Tim Duncan is on a roll with three straight double-doubles and is averaging 19.7 points and 13.7 rebounds during that stretch while Splitter has been out of the lineup for the last two.

•PREGAME NOTES: The Timberwolves snapped a 16-game losing streak in San Antonio in the regular-season finale last year, but fell short of two straight despite Love going 8-of-9 from 3-point range in the Dec. 13 meeting.... Love has been held to less than 20 points in two straight games after hitting the mark in 14 in a row.... San Antonio and Minnesota had a scheduled game in Mexico City on Dec. 4 postponed when smoke from a damaged generator outside filled the arena. It will be made up April 8 in Minneapolis.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

--In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 658 times, while MINNESOTA covered the spread 318 times. *EDGE against the spread =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 782 times, while MINNESOTA won 210 times. In 1000 simulated games, 506 games went over the total, while 494 games went under the total. *No EDGE.

--In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 584 times, while MINNESOTA covered the first half line 382 times. *EDGE against first half line =SAN ANTONIO. In 1000 simulated games, 531 games went under first half total, while 469 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN ANTONIO is 35-34 against the spread versus MINNESOTA since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 48-25 straight up against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--35 of 67 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--SAN ANTONIO is 36-32 versus the first half line when playing against MINNESOTA since 1996.
--38 of 63 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Over is 7-1-1 in Timberwolves last 9 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

--Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
--Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
--Over is 6-0-1 in Spurs last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400

Old Post 01-12-14 04:30 PM
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Pointwise

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
ILLINOIS over Northwestern (Sun) RATING: 3

(12:00) PURDUE 63 - Nebraska 56 (BIG10) _____ _____

(1:00) OHIO STATE 70 - Iowa 64 (CBS) _____ _____

(1:00) Southern Mississippi 67 - TULSA 66 (FOX1) _____ _____

(1:00) LOUISVILLE 95 - Smu 69 (CBSC) _____ _____

(2:00) Wisc-Green Bay 71 - WISC-MILWAUKEE 63 _____ _____

(2:30) LaSalle 82 - DUQUESNE 77 (NBCS) _____ _____

(3:00) CREIGHTON 78 - Xavier 70 (CBSC) _____ _____

(3:00) WASHINGTON 67 - Colorado 65 (FOX1) _____ _____

(4:00) San Diego State 66 - AIR FORCE 57 _____ _____

(4:30) BOWLING GREEN 62 - Northern Illinois 46 _____ _____

(5:00) OREGON 79 - Stanford 61 (FOX1) _____ _____

(6:00) Akron 69 - OHIO U 68 _____ _____

(7:00) WRIGHT STATE 57 - Illinois-Chicago 54 _____ _____

(7:00) Utah 74 - WASHINGTON STATE 73 _____ _____

(7:30) Illinois 70 - NORTHWESTERN 57 (BIG10) _____ _____

(8:00) FLORIDA STATE 78 - Maryland 69 (ESPNU) _____ _____

(9:00) Arizona State 75 - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 74 _____ _____

(10:00) UCLA 77 - Arizona State 72 (ESPNU) _____ _____

BEST BETS
WISC-GREEN BAY
ILL-CHICAGO
ILLINOIS (3)
ARIZONA STATE

Old Post 01-12-14 04:32 PM
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Winning Points

***BEST BET
Cleveland over *Sacramento by 7
Certainly there are better teams to trust on the road than Cleveland, but the Kings
must be faded when chalk. Sacramento has been favored 10 times this season through
this past Thursday and has failed to cover each time, including losing at home to
Philadelphia by nine points 10 days ago and to Charlotte also by 10 eight days ago.
The Kings have shown a repeated failure at home, too, failing to cover in 13 of their
first 19 home contests.
CLEVELAND 103-96.

*Memphis over Atlanta by 5
The Hawks are capable of spreading the floor and frustrating opponents, but have
been much weaker on the road and lack any star power with Josh Smith and Joe
Johnson both gone and Al Horford likely out for the season.
MEMPHIS 98-93.

*San Antonio over Minnesota by 7
The Timberwolves covered in their last visit to San Antonio losing 117-110 on Dec.
13 and have been on a scoring spree putting up at least 116 points in five of their past
eight games through last Sunday.
SAN ANTONIO 119-112.

Old Post 01-12-14 04:33 PM
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NCAAB DUNKEL

Maryland at Florida State
The Terps head to Tallahassee to face a Florida State team that is coming off a 56-41 win at Clemson and is 14-3-1 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Florida State is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Seminoles favored by 12 1/2.
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-6 1/2)

SUNDAY, JANUARY 12

Game 807-808: Nebraska at Purdue (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 58.342; Purdue 67.257
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 9
Vegas Line: Purdue by 6
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-6)

Game 809-810: Iowa at Ohio State (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 73.008; Ohio State 78.309
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+7 1/2)

Game 811-812: Southern Mississippi at Tulsa (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 60.697; Tulsa 55.858
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 5
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-2 1/2)

Game 813-814: SMU at Louisville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 65.137; Louisville 74.931
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 10
Vegas Line: Louisville by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (+13 1/2)

Game 815-816: WI-Green Bay at WI-Milwaukee (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 62.687; WI-Milwaukee 54.627
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 8
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-5 1/2)

Game 817-818: LaSalle at Duquesne (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 57.140; Duquesne 56.686
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 4
Dunkel Pick: Duquesne (+4)

Game 819-820: Xavier at Creighton (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 65.940; Creighton 76.104
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 10
Vegas Line: Creighton by 8
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-8)

Game 821-822: Colorado at Washington (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 67.072; Washington 67.129
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Colorado by 3
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3)

Game 823-824: San Diego State at Air Force (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 67.404; Air Force 59.025
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+11 1/2)

Game 825-826: Northern Illinois at Bowling Green (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 46.330; Bowling Green 57.284
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 11
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (-8 1/2)

Game 827-828: Stanford at Oregon (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 62.909; Oregon 76.082
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 13
Vegas Line: Oregon by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-6 1/2)

Game 829-830: Akron at Ohio (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 56.563; Ohio 58.656
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 2
Vegas Line: Ohio by 5
Dunkel Pick: Akron (+5)

Game 831-832: Illinois-Chicago at Wright State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois-Chicago 47.783; Wright State 61.871
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 14
Vegas Line: Wright State by 11
Dunkel Pick: Wright State (-11)

Game 833-834: Utah at Washington State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 63.421; Washington State 63.298
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Utah by 3
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+3)

Game 835-836: Illinois at Northwestern (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 63.416; Northwestern 60.965
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+5 1/2)

Game 837-838: Maryland at Florida State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 60.141; Florida State 72.843
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida State by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-6 1/2)

Game 839-840: Arizona at USC (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 73.983; USC 63.847
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 10
Vegas Line: Arizona by 12
Dunkel Pick: USC (+12)

Game 841-842: Arizona State at UCLA (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 62.035; UCLA 73.695
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: UCLA by 6
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-6)

Game 843-844: Monmouth at Canisius (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Monmouth 47.348; Canisius 59.421
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 12
Vegas Line: Canisius by 10
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (-10)

Game 845-846: Rider at Niagara (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 52.651; Niagara 50.586
Dunkel Line: Rider by 2
Vegas Line: Even
Dunkel Pick: Rider

Game 847-848: Marist at Manhattan (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 54.087; Manhattan 61.667
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 12
Dunkel Pick: Marist (+12)

Game 849-850: Iona at Siena (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 56.258; Siena 50.173
Dunkel Line: Iona by 6
Vegas Line: Iona by 3
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-3)

Game 851-852: Quinnipiac at St. Peter's (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Quinnipiac 51.048; St. Peter's 50.604
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Quinnipiac by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Peter's (+4 1/2)

Old Post 01-12-14 04:34 PM
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Nebraska (0-3), Purdue (0-2) are both starved for league win; Boilers are 3-1 in this series, winning by 18 in only meeting here- teams split pair of meetings in Big Dozen tourney. Huskers lost last four games, but they were all vs top 20 teams- they're 8-1 vs teams ranked below #30, but are also 0-4 in true road games, with all four losses by 10+. Purdue allowed 80 ppg in losing its first two league games.

Ohio State lost first game Tuesday in OT at Michigan State, after being down 17 with 7:10 left; Buckeyes won last eight games with Iowa- they won last seven meetings here, with six of seven by 9+ points. Iowa lost its two true road games, by 3 at Iowa State, 4 at Wisconsin- their eFG% defense (41.7%) is #6 in country, but OSU's is #5, plus they force TOs 22.9% of time. McCaffery returns to bench after 1-game suspension.

Home side won six of last seven Southern Miss-Tulsa games; Eagles are 0-4 in last four visits here, losing by 9-15-8-8 points. Southern Miss is 5-2 on road with wins at DePaul/North Dakota State- they're forcing a turnover 23.7% of time (#9) but also turning ball over 22.1% (#326 in US). Tulsa won its last five home games after losing to Oral Roberts and Wichita in first two home games this year.

Louisville split its last four games; they're 1-3 vs top 100 teams, routing Southern Miss by 30 for best win. Cardinals are forcing turnovers 25% of time, #3 in US. SMU hasn't played in eight days; they're 2-3 vs top 100 teams, beating Wyoming/UConn- their three losses are by 11-3-8 to Arkansas-Virginia-Cincy. AAC home favorites are 4-5 vs spread, 3-1 if they're laying 7 or more points.

Green Bay was 3-0 vs Milwaukee LY, winning by 20-17-16; home side is 7-2 in last nine series games- Phoenix lost three of last four visits here, with LY's 74-54 win ended 3-game skid here. Green Bay won its last six games since loss at Eastern Michigan- they've got wins at So. Dakota, Chicago State. Milwaukee is 4-2 at home, losing to DePaul/Cleveland State. Horizon home teams are 8-5 vs spread; they were all favored.

Creighton has injury issues; Gibbs is out 4 weeks (knee), McDermott is ?able (shoulder). Bluejays won first three Big East games by 18-13-19 points- they're making 43.3% from arc (#1 in US). Xavier also won its last eight games, winning first three league games by 10-11-7- they're 3-0 SU this year when getting points, beating Iowa-Cincy-Alabama. Single digit home favorites are 4-1 vs spread in Big East play.

Home side won both Colorado-Washington games in Pac-12 play, with Buffs losing by 10 here LY; Colorado is 14-1 in last 15 games after they survived Wazzu in Spokane Thursday- they're 2-0 in true road games, winning by 5 at Colorado State, 24 at Air Force. Huskies won four of last five games with only loss to Arizona- they beat Utah by hoop last game- Utes were only 1-15 from arc.

Oregon won three of last four games with Stanford; Cardinal lost its last two visits to Euguene, by 11 points each- they lost first two games in league by 7-9 points, making just 2-8 from arc in loss at Oregon State on Thursday. Ducks allowed 98 ppg in losing last two games after starting 13-0; three of their last six wins came in OT. Oregon is making 40.1% of its 3's (#21). Pac-12 home favorites are 5-6 vs spread.

Akron was 3-0 vs Ohio LY, winning by 14-7-19 points; teams met in 3 of last 4 MAC tourneys. Zips split their last six visits here, won three games in row, but last two were by combined total of five points against Marshall/Ball State. Ohio is 7-1 at home with only loss to UMass by 12; Bobcats are shooting just 31.2% from arc. Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in MAC games with single digit spread.

Home side won both Utah-Washington State games in Pac-12 play, with Utes losing here by 10 LY; Utah was 6-31 from arc in its two losses in Pac-12, 12-22 in the win over Oregon State- they're #1 in US, making 59% of 2-point shots. Washington State is 0-3 in Pac-12 with its top scorer Lacy having appendicitis; Coogs lost to Colorado by points last game in Spokane- this is their first Pac-12 game on actual home court.

Road team won last four Illinois-Northwestern games; Illini won its last two visits here, by 1-21 points. Illinois is 1-2 in true road games- they got whacked at Wisconsin last game, also lost by 3 at Ga Tech, won by a hoop at UNLV. Big Dozen home teams are 2-7 vs spread in games with single digit spread. Northwestern lost last four games; none of last three was even close. Sitting next to Coach K doesn't make you a head coach.

Florida State won five of last six games, holding Clemson to 41 points in last game; Seminoles are holding teams to 39% inside arc- their eFG% of 41.3% is #4 in US. ACC underdogs of 7 or less points are 8-3 vs spread, 4-0 on road. Maryland has better guard depth with allen back; Terps are 1-2 on road, losing by 16-20 at Ohio State/Pitt, winning at BC- they are making 37.1% from arc, which helps offset FSU's interior defense.

UCLA won seven of last nine games with Arizona State, winning four in row at Pauley Pavilion by 2-18-17-5 points- they beat Sun Devils in OT here LY and then again in Pac-12 tourney, both by five. ASU is 3-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 28 to Marquette, only top 50 foe. UCLA led Arizona by point with 1:44 left Thursday before losing by 4; Bruins are 2-3 vs top 100 teams, beating UCSB by 13, Alabama by 8.

Old Post 01-12-14 04:35 PM
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NBA DUNKEL

Minnesota at San Antonio
The Spurs host a Minnesota team tonight that is coming off a 119-92 win over Charlotte and is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games following an ATS victory. San Antonio is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 8.
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6)

SUNDAY, JANUARY 12

Game 801-802: Cleveland at Sacramento (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 113.411; Sacramento 120.115
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 6 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 3 1/2; 206 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-3 1/2); Under

Game 803-804: Atlanta at Memphis (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 116.965; Memphis 124.264
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 7 1/2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 4 1/2; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-4 1/2); Over

Game 805-806: Minnesota at San Antonio (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 120.831; San Antonio 128.946
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 8; 216
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 211 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6); Over

Old Post 01-12-14 04:36 PM
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Brandon Lang

Brandon Lang
150 Dime Max Wager
Denver Broncos

Bonus 50 Dime Winner
49 ers

Old Post 01-12-14 04:37 PM
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"STEAM READ" Market Update = SD vs DEN
Wiseguys steam SD +10 and +9.5..since then Public $$$ on SD has forced books to drop line to -8..
PARLAYS tied into SD..but TEASERS are split w/ SD & DEN sides..
Wiseguys & Public DISAGREE on TOTAL w/ Steam UNDER..Public on OVER.

Old Post 01-12-14 05:02 PM
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"STEAM READ" Market Update = SF vs CAR
Wiseguys steam BOTH teams at "Plus Money" on ML throughout the week..and UNDER 44.5 thru 43..

Old Post 01-12-14 05:04 PM
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NHL True Steam/Lean = OVER 5 MIN/NASH..
With all of the attention on NFL..wiseguys find some value in OTHER sports..

Old Post 01-12-14 06:00 PM
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Late Market Update :
Books report BRONCOS TICKETS at -8 are starting to be written due to Public..BUT the $$$ is still much HEAVIER on SD.

Seeing smarts under 41.5

Old Post 01-12-14 06:01 PM
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