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wildcat76
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Registered: Dec 2005
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VR Steam Read and Market Analysis

Early NFL Market Update :
BOTH FAVS leave books exposed..especially w/ PARLAYS & TEASERS from today and "Live" pending from Sat results..

Books report good balance on TOTALS w/ Ticket Count & Money Bet..but that could change if movers get involved late

Old Post 01-05-14 05:21 PM
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wildcat76
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CFB Bowl Market Update :
Volume is LOW so far..but that should change since it's a late game..
FAV & OVER getting play from public, Plenty of TEASERS (w/ Ball St) and NFL..
Wiseguys on DOG leave books exposed unless volume increases on STRAIGHTS from public later.

Old Post 01-05-14 05:24 PM
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NFL teams getting 3-points at home have only won 39% of the time outright & 47% against the spread over the past 400 games

NHL STRONG LEAN = UNDER CHI/SJ
The "CANADIAN" went UNDER 6

Old Post 01-05-14 05:25 PM
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Sharps are also on the 49ers -2.5 and the public is still betting them -3

Sharps are on the Chargers +7. Public is on the Bengals -6.5.

Old Post 01-05-14 05:26 PM
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NFL Confirmed TRUE STEAM = OVER SD/CIN

Old Post 01-05-14 05:27 PM
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"Noteworthy" Cappers: Who's on What??

CIN: Gavazzi, Int Picks, Hondo, Colin Cowherd, Platinum Picks, Ben Burns, Cokin, Ferringo, Budin, OSKEIM, Northcoast

SD: Steve Merrill, Exec, Paul Leiner, Mark Lawrence, Allen Eastman, Cappers Access, Ecks, Raw, Chris Berman

Over: Hondo, Northcoast, Chris Berman

Under: Football Crusher, MTI, Platinum Picks

Old Post 01-05-14 05:39 PM
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MTI, Killer Sports

MTI Sports

4.5-Star San Diego at Cincinnati OVER 46

These two met four weeks ago and the Bengals won 17-10 in San Diego. The Bengals were laying a point in that game, but here they are a TD favorite. The score in their first meeting is keeping this line very reasonable, but on the road, the Chargers will have to take it to the Bengals if they are going to win and this should get it over this number.
San Diego is off a 27-24 overtime win over the Chiefs in which they had 186 rushing yards and Philip Rivers had three TD passes to three different receivers - one of whom was Antonio Gates. This is an OVER indicator, as the Chargers are 11-0 OU the week following a win in which Antonio Gates caught a TD pass, as long as he had fewer than ten receptions. The SDQL text is:

0=20081201

Also, San Diego is 8-0 OU on the road after a game in which they had at least 150 yards rushing, going over the total by an average of 12.6 ppg. This was last active in week 12 vs the Chiefs and the Chargers won 41-38 with the OU line at 43.

team=Chargers and A and p:RY>=150 and date>=20090101

The Bengals are VERY confident. They have faith in Dalton and will not rein him in here. We have a couple of trends involving wide receivers working here. The Bengals are 7-0 OU (+12.1 ppg) the week after a win in which Mohamed Sanu did not have a 20-plus yard reception and 6-0 OU (+13.50 ppg) after a game in which AJ Green caught a touchdown pass.

The weather here is indeed an issue, which is why this play was not released last night. The radar this morning indicates that the temperature during the game will be in the forties and there will be scattered showers that will increase throughout the afternoon. If this game was a later kickoff, I would be more concerned.

Yesterday's forecast said, "driving, freezing sleet," so the outlook has improved considerably.

In the Bengals' last five home games, they scored 49, 41, 42, 42 and 34 points. The Chargers cannot be thinking they are going to win this one with 20 points and simply cannot afford to be conservative on offense.

Yesterday's games are a compelling reminder that no lead is safe in the playoffs and the team with the lead will not be trying to burn clock until it is very late. The OVER is the play.

MTi's FORECAST: CINCINNATI 31 San Diego 27

Old Post 01-05-14 05:43 PM
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MTI, Killer Sports

MTI Sports

4-Star GREEN BAY +3 over San Francisco
We'll start the reasoning with a very compelling trend involving the fact that the 49ers are 12-4 and the Packers are 8-7-1. The reason why this one is in Green Bay rather than San Francisco is that the 49ers were the Wildcard behind the 13-3 Seahawks and the Packers were a division winner.
In the NFL playoffs, home teams with fewer wins than their opponent are a 18-8-1 ATS in the history of our database - including 8-2 straight up and 8-2 ATS recently. Even more compelling is the fact that home teams with at least three fewer wins on the season are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS and these are worth checking out with this SDQL text:

playoffs=1 and o:wins - wins >= 3 and H

The four games include: the Patriots' 20-17 win over the Rams as a 14-point dog in the 2001 Super Bowl, the Chargers 23-17 win over the Colts in 2009, the 8-8 Seahawks huge 41-36 upset over the Saints as a double-digit dog in 2010 and The Broncos' 29-23 win over the Steelers as an 8.5-point dog led by Tim Tebow in 2012.

Teams in this spot have covered by an average of 13.4 ppg.

Fitting in perfectly here is the fact that the Packers themselves are 6-0 ATS versus any team with more wins after playing on the road, covering by an average of 15.3 ppg. Two of these wins came in the playoffs, as you can see by running this SDQL text:

team=Packers and o:wins>wins and p:A and date>=20101219

It is also worth mentioning that the Packers are 9-0 ATS at home after a road game in which fullback John Kuhn did not catch a pass, covering by an average of 16.6 ppg. The SDQL text is:

H and Packers:John Kuhn:receptions=0 and p:A and date>=20091201

Green Bay is 0-4 ATS at home after a road game in which John Kuhn DID catch a pass.

The 49ers have a lot of good numbers, and it would be easy to make a case for them by quoting stats. However, but a closer inspection reveals major flaws. San Francisco is 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS on the road after a road win in which they had at least one TD pass. The SDQL text is:

team=Fortyniners and A and p:AW and p:PTD>0 and date>=20020101

In their last four in this spot, they scored 14, 16, 13 and 13 points respectively.

In their last two games, the Niners allowed Matt Ryan to throw for 348 yards and Carson Palmer to throw for 407 yards but won them both because they benefitted for a 2-0 takeaway margin in each. This is not a good sign. The Niners are 0-11 ATS on the road after a win in which they allowed at least 310 passing yards and a completion percentage of less than 75%. The SDQL text is:

team=Fortyniners and A and po:PY>=310 and p:W and po:CP<75 and date>=19981201

Note that the Niners are 0-7 SU their last seven and they scored 6, 3, 16, 14, 7, 13, and 3 points in these seven games respectively, the last of which was their 29-3 loss to the Seahawks this season. On the average, they have fallen short of the linesmakers' expectations by an average of MORE than two touchdowns. Brutal.

It certainly can be argued that the 49ers are better on paper, but this game isn't being played on paper, it is being played in Green Bay. Grab the three points.

MTi's FORECAST: GREEN BAY 23 San Francisco 20

Old Post 01-05-14 05:44 PM
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The Gold Sheet

NFL Wild Card Playoffs
SAN DIEGO (9-7) at CINCINNATI (11-5)
Sunday, January 5, 2014
CINCINNATI 29 - San Diego 16— Perhaps we should check with Al Roker
and the chance of a weather forecast similar to the last time these two met in
the playoffs, a memorable 1981 AFC title game at old Riverfront Stadium, also
referred to as the “Freezer Bowl” when the kickoff temperature was an icy -
9 and wind chill an even more frigid -38. All part of a 27-7 Cincy win that
propelled it into Super Bowl XVI against the 49ers.

There is more recent history between the Bengals and Bolts, who met five
weeks ago at Qualcomm Stadium in a game won by Cincy, 17-10. Off of
their bye, the Bengals ran the ball effectively (164 YR) and held Philip
Rivers and the San Diego “O” to its lowest output of the season. At the
time, the Chargers’ playoff chances appeared about as remote as ice
freezing over Mission Bay, but the Chargers proceeded to win their last
four and barely squeezed into the postseason when the Dolphins and
Ravens both cooperated by losing last Sunday.

This might anger San Diego "homers" like Padres play-by-play voice Ted
Leitner (which is our intent–sort of), but we wonder about the playoffworthiness
of a San Diego squad that, gifted with a “win and in” scenario,
was outplayed much of last Sunday by a K.C. squad using backup QB Chase
Daniel, surviving into OT only because Chiefs PK Ryan Succop missed a 41-
yard FG by inches at the death of regulation. Meanwhile, Cincy enters the
playoffs 8-0 SU and vs. the line this season at Paul Brown Stadium. Which is
an important distinction, as the Bengals suffered wildcard exits the past two
seasons on the road at Houston.

Cincy, which effectively dealt with many injuries TY, appears better
equipped to advance in its third postseason try behind QB Andy Dalton, who
tossed a career-best 33 TDP while WR A.J. Green (98 catches) blossomed
into one of the NFL’s most feared deep threats. Rookie RB Gio Bernard also
added a big-play element absent the past two years. And if there are clues
from the first meeting, the Bengals’ ability to run effectively as the game
progressed and wear down the Bolts (who allowed a hefty 4.7 ypc TY), not
to mention keeping Ryan Mathews and the S.D. infantry in relative check,
appear to be significant indicators for the rematch.

SAN FRANCISCO (12-4) at GREEN BAY (8-7-1)
Sunday, January 5, 2014
San Francisco 29 - GREEN BAY 22—The Packers are delighted to have
back QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Randall Cobb after substantial absences.
The dynamic pair combined for the winning TD last week against the sloppy
Chicago defense. Too bad for G.B. that this has been a nightmare matchup
for the Pack since former Bear QB Jim Harbaugh arrived in San Francisco.
The 49ers out-muscled G.B. 30-22 at Lambeau in 2012’s opener (Alex Smith
at the controls for S.F.). Then, with Colin Kaepernick at QB in the Divisional
Round in 2012, the Niners ran away from Rodgers & Co. 45-31 at
Candlestick, with Kaepernick rushing for an NFL-record 181 QB yards. In
this year’s season opener, with the Pack looking for revenge and determined
to shut down Kaepernick’s runs, the long-limbed QB burned the G.B.

secondary for 412 YP and 3 TDP in a 34-28 win—and that was before
former top target Michael Crabtree had returned from an offseason torn
Achilles. During those three meetings, the Harbaugh 49ers have won the
rushing battle in all three contests, by a cumulative count of 599-222.
Yes, the Pack still wants a piece of Kaepernick and the Niners after LY’s
startling playoff loss in San Francisco. And G.B. now has a ground force of
its own in rookie RB Eddie Lacy (1178 YR), who boasts considerable
seasoning. Aforementioned deep-threat WR Cobb returned just in time last
week from a fibula fracture. But can you count on Rodgers and Cobb to be
at their best vs. the well-balanced S.F. defense, which bends a little, but
rarely breaks? The Packers are still missing a slew of quality players (e.g.,
OLB Clay Matthews, TE Jermichael Finley, DT Johnny Jolly, RB/KR DuJaun
Harris), and their OL and secondary have not exactly been bastions of
consistency.

Meanwhile, the 49ers are getting healthier, regaining WR Crabtree and
powerful G Mike Iupati in recent games to go with the veteran likes of RB
Frank Gore, WR Anquan Boldin, and TE deluxe Vernon Davis. With rookie S
Eric Reid and emerging CB Tramaine Brock now fixtures on defense, S.F.
has won six straight games and 11 of its last 13. Kaepernick (only 4 ints. his
last 13 games)—born in Milwaukee—will have to be at his mistake-free best
to beat the renowned Rodgers. But the same for the latter, who will be
facing a much more conscientious and bruising defense than Aa-Rod saw
last week in Chicago.

Old Post 01-05-14 05:45 PM
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Point Wise

GO DADDY BOWL
AT MOBILE, ALABAMA
BALL STATE (10-2) vs ARKANSAS STATE (7-5)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 5
9:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
ANALYSIS
No, the Red Wolves of Arkansas State are no strangers to this particular bowl,
as they've been one of its participants in each of the last 3 years, going 1-1 both
SU (18-pt loss, 4-pt win) & ATS (19½-pt loss, ½-pt cover) in their previous 2. So
3 straight Sun Belt titles, with their patented late-season runs (9-0, 7-0, 4-1 SU &
6-1, 5-0, 4-1 ATS regular season finishes). As can be seen above, they are a
splendidly balanced array, behind their "do-everything" QB Kennedy (2,349 PYs
& 514 RYs). However, he has tossed only 11 TDs, with 6 picks, & isn't exactly a
world shaker at 3.5 ypr & 4 TDs. And, by the way, his status questionable, as of
this writing (knee). And, as per usual, the Wolves are again in their "musical
coaches" situation, as first-year HC Harsin, has bolted for Boise, to be replaced
for this game by DC Thompson, who also took over for '12's bowl, following the
departure of first-year HC Gus Malzahn, who left for Auburn. And, believe it or
not, Malzahn replaced previous first-year HC Hugh Freeze, who now coaches
OleMiss. Got it? Talk about uncertainty. The Cardinals of Ball State have been
one of our "money" squads this season, with consistency their forte. QB Wenning
has been simply outstanding, with 10 games of >300 PYs (328 PYpg), 65%, &
34/6. For his career, he has thrown for 11,187 yds & 93 TDs. RB Edwards is a
steady 5.2 ypr, while receivers Snead & Williams combined for 165 catches,
2,445 yds, 14.8 ypc, & 24 TDs. A year ago, the Cardinals were no match for
CentFla, in the Beef O'Brady's, with a 222-71 RY deficit, despite a decent 2/0 &
65% from Wenning. And how about 32, 32, & 21 pt SU losses in each of the last
3 recent Card bowl games? Neither team won, nor covered, vs a bowl team TY.
PROPHECY: Ball State 38 - ARKANSAS STATE 33
RATING: 6

NFL WILDCARD PLAYOFFS
SAN DIEGO (9-7) at CINCINNATI (11-5)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 5 -- 1:05 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
LINE: CINCINNATI BY 7½ -- O/U: 46
You have to go back to Jan 6, 1991, to find the last time that Cincy won a playoff
game (41-14 over Houston). Made it this far past 2 yrs, but Dalton tossed 4 picks
in 31-10 & 19-13 losses to the Texans. He has 17 TDs in last 5 gms & 32 for the
year (Bengal record). Cincy is 17-7 ATS lately, & host is 15-2-1 ATS in Bengal tilts
this yr. SD's Rivers a brilliant 32/11 & 68.5%, but, it's been Cincy at home all year.
PROPHECY: CINCINNATI 37 - San Diego 22
RATING: 4

SAN FRANCISCO (12-4) at GREEN BAY (8-7-1)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 5 -- 4:40 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
LINE: SAN FRANCISCO BY 2½ -- O/U: 49
Opening day revenge for '12 playoff embarrassment failed for Pack, in 34-28 loss
(2 Niner FGs in last 5:47). Rodgers: 333 PYs 3/1: but Kaepernick: 412 PYs, 3/0
(Boldin: 13 catches for 208 yds). Remember, Colin had QB record 181 RYs (11.3
ypr) in LY's 45-31 playoff rout. Niners rank 24th on "O", but 3rd on "D", while Pack
has 5th best "O", but 7th worst "D". SF 6-0-1 ATS away lately, but it's a HD setup.
PROPHECY: GREEN BAY 31 - San Francisco 30
RATING: 5

Old Post 01-05-14 05:47 PM
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Winning Points

*Detroit over Memphis by 7
It's the Pistons who now have the dominant big men not Memphis minus Marc
Gasol. Detroit also is well rested having last played on Monday.
DETROIT 102-95.

***BEST BET
*Washington over Golden State by 11
The Wizards are tough enough at home with a backcourt of John Wall and Bradley
Beal to match Golden State's high scoring duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.
The Wizards can take advantage of the Warriors playing in their fifth road game in
eight days and third in four days.
WASHINGTON 113-102.

Indiana over *Cleveland by 7
The teams just met on Tuesday. Prior to that matchup, the Cavs had averaged only
85.1 points per game during the past six meetings versus Indiana.
INDIANA 92-85.

*Miami over Toronto by 8
Be careful with Miami here. Dwayne Wade doesn't always suit up in the second of
back-to-back games because of his troublesome knees and LeBron James was dealing
with a sore groin and ankle coming out of December.
MIAMI 101-93.

*Oklahoma City over Boston by 11
Except for a one-point upset of the Heat in early November, the Celtics have failed to
defeat an elite opponent and lack a defensive stopper to slow down Kevin Durant.
OKLAHOMA CITY 105-94.

*Dallas over New York by 9
Now that Jose Calderon is steadily contributing at point guard, the Mavericks are
much closer to elite level than New York's lowly level. Just when the Knicks get Tyson
Chandler back they lose Carmelo Anthony (check status) while their point guard situation remains highly troublesome.
DALLAS 107-98.

Denver over *Los Angeles Lakers by 3
Entering the final Sunday of December, the Lakers were 9-4-1 ATS at home.
However, the Lakers were no match for the Nuggets when the teams met in Denver
losing 111-99 on Nov. 13.
DENVER 106-103.

Old Post 01-05-14 05:51 PM
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With 72% of bettors taking the over in the Chargers Bengals game, the total has climbed from 46.5 to 48 at CRIS

Old Post 01-05-14 05:53 PM
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Bengals -3.5 for 2H. Cincy has outscored the opposition 130-73 (7.125 per game) during 2H at home in 2013.

Old Post 01-05-14 07:46 PM
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