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wildcat76
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VR Steam Read and Market Analysis

Early NFL Market Update :
VOLUME extremely HIGH..so books try to limit their exposure and create good 2-way action to sweep up all that VIG.

Old Post 01-04-14 04:04 PM
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wildcat76
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So far they'll be a little HEAVIER on KC (Wiseguys & Public) and NOS (Public)..even w/ Sharp $$$ on PHI Caution, plenty of SetUps happen throughout the post-season since public fires enough $$$ to force adjustments.

Old Post 01-04-14 04:08 PM
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wildcat76
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TOTALS = Ticket Count & $$$..is a bit heavier to the OVER when you add in all the Parlays & Teasers..

There is still a TON of money that'll hit the window over the next couple of hours..meaning book's exposure can change by kick-off

Updates throughout the day..

Old Post 01-04-14 04:19 PM
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dvp95
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Thanks again for posting these

Old Post 01-04-14 04:34 PM
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wildcat76
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CFB Bowl Market Update :
Decent 2-way action from Public w/ FAV & OVER getting a little more love like usual..But sharp $$$ on DOG & UNDER.

Old Post 01-04-14 04:38 PM
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wildcat76
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NFL Wild Card Market Update :
Books continue to receive PHILLY money from public..and NOW starting to receive INDY money as Home Dogs.

Old Post 01-04-14 06:07 PM
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Best Weekend wagers with Weekend Warrior January 04, 2014 7:25 AM by Mark Mayer

NCAA Football

109 Towson +14: The monster that is North Dakota State no longer at home. Towson went to Eastern Washington and won. They won’t be intimidated.

Results 2013 NCAA FB (0-1-0) Overall Record: 15-17-3

NFL Football

102 Indianapolis Colts -1½: Kansas City lost twice to Denver, twice to San Diego and once to the Colts. They benefitted from a soft schedule. Andrew Luck and Indy wins big ballgames.

104 Philadelphia Eagles -2½: Take a dome team like New Orleans facing the elements in Philly and you have a problem. Plus the Eagles come in with momentum and belief in Nick Foles.


Results 2013 NFL (0-0-0) Overall Record: 26-31-1

Old Post 01-04-14 06:28 PM
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wildcat76
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MTI Killer Sports, Ed Meyer

5-Star New Orleans +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA - The Eagles have been terrible when hosting a team that does not run the ball much. Philadelphia is 0-12 ATS at home vs a team that has averaged 25 or fewer rushes per game season-to-date. The SDQL text is:
team=Eagles and H and oA(rushes)<=25 and date>=20101003

Note that they were 0-4 ATS in this spot THIS season.

Also, the Eagles are 0-14 ATS at home the week after a game in which they passed for fewer than 350 yards and Riley Cooper did not have a 24-plus yard reception. The SDQL text here is:

H and Eagles:Riley Cooper:longest reception<24 and p:PY<350 and NB and date>=20110101

Note that they have lost each of their last six straight up in this spot.

The Saints' offense is ranked fourth in the league for fewest turnovers this season. This is another poor spot for Philadelphia, as they are 0-10 ATS since the start of the 2011 season when hosting a team that has averaged fewer than 1.35 turnovers per game season-to-date. Check it out using this SDQL text:

team=Eagles and H and oA(TO)<1.35 and season>=2011

They were in just this spot three times this season and they lost all three as a favorite.

We had the Eagles over 7.5 wins for the season and we had LeSean McCoy to win the rushing title at +1800. However, the reason was their weak schedule, not because they were a great team. The Saints outplayed the Patriots in New England and the Panthers in Carolina, but lost both games. Philadelphia played four playoff teams this season - they lost as a home favorite to the Chargers, lost as a home favorite to the Chiefs and were hammered 52-20 by the Broncos. The did beat the Packers, but Green Bay was without Aaron Rogers.

The NFC East was a very weak division - especially on defense. The Redskins were ranked #32 of 32 teams in yards allowed per opponent's pass attempt in 2013. The Cowboys were ranked #32 of 32 teams in total yards allowed this season. It's no wonder that the Eagles' offensive numbers look good as they got each of these teams twice during the regular season. The Eagles also faced the Bears (#30 in total yards allowed) and the Vikings (#31 in total yards allowed). So, the Eagles got to face the three worst defenses in the league and they got the Cowboys twice.

Did the Eagles get to face the team ranked #29 of 32 teams in total yards allowed in 2013? No, because THEY are ranked #29.

Philadelphia started the season 2-5 and needed a huge run to get to the playoffs, including an emotional 24-22 win over the Cowboys in Dallas in the season finale. The Saints started 5-0 and ended the season with a romp over the Bucs. The Saints belong in the playoffs and the Eagles know they were fortunate to get there.

The Saints have so many offensive weapons. They have a raft of excellent receivers and they have running backs that can catch the ball, although Pierre Thomas only had one reception for three yards in their win over the Bucs. This is actually a positive indicator, as the Saints are 8-0 ATS after a home win in which Pierre Thomas had fewer than three receptions.

I'll take Sean Payton over Chip Kelly and I'll take Drew Brees over Nick Foles. The Saints should be able to expose the Eagles as a team that is not a real contender. Grab the 2.5 points.

MTi's FORECAST: New Orleans 31 PHILADELPHIA 17

Old Post 01-04-14 06:30 PM
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wildcat76
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MTI Killer Sports

3-Star Kansas City at Indianapolis UNDER 47
These two teams met two weeks ago with the Colts winning 23-7after trailing 7-0 at the end of the first quarter. The Chiefs suffered a 4-0 turnover margin and converted a total of one first down the entire game. We expect the Chiefs to feature their defense and their running game here and we expect the Colts to adopt a conservative approach and wait for the Chiefs to make the first mistake.
We have a decent league-wide system for which the Chiefs qualify. NFL teams are 0-13 OU when seeking same-season revenge for a TD-plus loss in which they committed at least three turnovers, had less than 31:20 of possession time and fewer than 400 yards of total offense. The SDQL text is:

P:margin<=-7 and 3<=P:TO and P:season=season and P:TOP<1880 and P:TY<400 and date>=20121201

Teams in this situation have stayed under by an average of 12.8 ppg. It makes sense that teams would be cautious in this spot.

The Chiefs themselves are The Chiefs are 0-6 OU (-6.75 ppg) versus any team with the same record after playing on the road. A fresh Jamaal Charles should also make this a low scoring game, as the Chiefs are 0-12 OU the week after a loss in which Jamaal Charles did not rush the ball ten-plus times, as long as they have three-plus days rest. The SDQL text is:

Chiefs:Jamaal Charles:rushes<10 and NB and p:L and rest>3 and date>=20091018

The Chiefs have stayed under by an average of 12.6 ppg in this spot.

The Colts have allowed 3, 7 and 10 points in their last three games, respectively. In their 30-10 win over the Jaguars to close out the season, Ryan Luck completed passes to ELEVEN different receivers and T. Y. Hilton caught eleven passes including a 41-yarder. This points to the UNDER, as the Colts are 0-9 OU (-10.9 ppg) after a home win in which a receiver had a reception of 40+ yards. The SDQL text is:

team=Colts and max:longest reception>=40 and p:HW and date>=20090101

Whenever we investigate trends like these we always look at the "other side" to see if there is a dichotomy. In this case there is, which makes the trend more likely to be a reliable performance indicator. The Colts are 9-1 OU after a home win in which their longest reception was 28 yards or fewer.

All we need to cash this one is for the defense and special teams to stay out of the end zone and good defense in the red zone.

MTi's FORECAST: INDIANAPOLIS 23 Kansas City 20

Old Post 01-04-14 06:33 PM
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wildcat76
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Prediction Machine

Saturday, January 4 at 4:35 PM ET: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 @ Indianapolis Colts (Covers 54.3%), OVER 46.5 (Covers 52.4%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Light
The Vitals:

Projected Score: Kansas City 23.8 - Indianapolis 24.3
SU Pick and Win%: Indianapolis wins 51.7%
Playoffs - Wildcard SU Confidence Rank: #4
ATS Pick and Win%: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 covers 54.3%
Playoffs - Wildcard ATS Confidence Rank: #2
ATS Wager for $50 player: $20
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (46.5) 52.4%
Playoffs - Wildcard O/U Confidence Rank: #3
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0


The Teams: KC IND
Straight-Up Record 11-5 11-5
Against-the-Spread Record 9-7 9-6
Over/Under Record 7-9 8-8
Avg. Points For vs. Against 26.9-19.1 24.4-21.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #5 #3
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #7 #8
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #2 #5
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #4 #5
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #5 #4
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 57.0%/43.0% #60.0%/40.0%
Turnover Margin +18 +13

Injuries to Watch: Tamba Hali/Justin Houston, OLBs, Kansas City Chiefs - While it is impossible to put much stock into what Kansas City did in Week 17, it appears as though the team has done everything it can to get Hali and Houston as fresh and healthy as possible heading into the playoffs. With both star outside linebackers hobbled throughout the second half of the season, the Chiefs defense noticeably diminished down the stretch. This was actually more apparent against the run than the pass, and the competition was certainly tougher late in the year, but beating a below average offensive line to put pressure on Andrew Luck will be important to the Chiefs remaining competitive in this game. Also of note are the health of Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe and Colts cornerback Greg Toler.
Anticipated Line Movement: Three of the four Wild Card weekend games have 2.5 point spreads, including both home teams on Saturday favored by just under a field goal. Neither line has budged all week (not even the juice), so do not expect much to change with this spread as we get closer to the game. Of the three games with 2.5 point spreads, action is most evenly distributed in this game.
The Breakdown: We have tended to fade both of these teams throughout the season. Neither is as good as its best win nor as bad as its worst loss. The rankings above note how each team compares to the other seven teams playing this weekend. Of the Wild Card teams, the Colts are essentially average to below average in everything except for pass offense where they rank as the least efficient team. This is a strong reflection of where this offense has gone since Reggie Wayne's injury. Since Wayne went down against Denver, Luck has completed less than 60% of his passes (59.8%) for just 6.4 yards-per-pass (despite playing Tennessee, Houston and Jacksonville a total of five times in that stretch - against teams with above average defenses in those games, Luck is just 112-of-194, 57.7%, for 1,181 yards, 6.1 yards-per-pass). Kansas City should be as healthy as they have been in two months and appears to actually win every individual matchup. Though playing on the road, the Chiefs figure to fare well with explosive players on both sides of the field getting to play inside on turf. Look for an evenly matched game that's a toss-up straight-up. Value is in the underdog.
Boxscore: Boxscore
KC @ IND NO @ PHI SD @ CIN SF @ GB
Saturday, January 4 at 8:10 PM ET:
New Orleans Saints +2.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles (Covers 51.8%), OVER 53.5 (Covers 58.9%)
ATS Play Type: Not Playable
O/U Play Type: Normal
The Vitals:
Projected Score: New Orleans 29.4 - Philadelphia 31.1
SU Pick and Win%: Philadelphia wins 53.7%
Playoffs - Wildcard SU Confidence Rank: #3
ATS Pick and Win%: New Orleans Saints +2.5 covers 51.8%
Playoffs - Wildcard ATS Confidence Rank: #4
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (53.5) 58.9%
Playoffs - Wildcard O/U Confidence Rank: #2
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $68


The Teams: NO PHI
Straight-Up Record 11-5 10-6
Against-the-Spread Record 8-7 8-8
Over/Under Record 6-10 8-7
Avg. Points For vs. Against 25.9-19.0 27.6-23.9
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #2 #7
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #4 #1
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #7 #1
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #3 #6
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #8 #1
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 63.8%/36.2% #52.6%/47.4%
Turnover Margin 0 +12

Injuries to Watch: Earl Wolff, S, Philadelphia Eagles - These two teams are incredibly healthy at this point in the season. Wolff is the only real question mark in this game. As of Wednesday, he has not practiced this week after re-aggravating a knee injury that cost him five games this season. Without Wolff in the starting lineup, more pressure will be put on slot corner Brandon Boykin, safety starter Pat Chung and cover linebacker Mychal Kendricks to keep tight end Jimmy Graham and running backs Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas in check on passing plays. Wolff would not have been able to stop those guys on his own, but the task is even more daunting with the Eagles likely down a man.
Anticipated Line Movement: After watching a poor performance by the Eagles in a narrow victory over the Tony Romo-less Cowboys, the public seems to like New Orleans in this game. Enough squares and sharps are playing against the Saints given their road woes to keep this line from moving off of the Eagles -2.5. The general public lean on New Orleans means this line is unlikely to shift to Philadelphia -3. No other line movement will have much of an impact on our pick.
The Breakdown: This is the lightest play that we have ever published in an NFL Playoff game and it's technically only worth $3 to a normal $50 player. To put that another way, if $50 is 1% of bankroll (our suggested "normal" play), we recommend putting just 0.06% on New Orleans +2.5. In our Power Rankings, the Eagles are actually the slightly better overall team and are playing at home. While that may sound like a lean on Philadelphia to leverage home field advantage and win by more than a field goal, the matchup keeps this game a little closer than that. The Eagles are much better against the run than the pass, which keeps the pass heavy, Drew Brees-led Saints in what appears to be a very close game. With the total, which is a strong opinion for us OVER 53.5, it's worth noting that weather should not be much of a factor in this contest. The temperature may only be 25 degrees, but no wind or precipitation is expected. Also, while the Saints should be able to put up points against an Eagles defense that struggles against the pass, the Saints are much worse against the run than the pass and running the ball is Philadelphia's specialty. Look for a shootout in a close game.

Old Post 01-04-14 06:36 PM
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Betting NFL dogs?

Amazing trend will have you thinking moneylines

If you’re thinking about taking the points this NFL Wild Card Weekend, you may want to forget the pointspread all together and go all in on the NFL underdog moneylines.

According to Marc Lawrence, the outright winner in NFL opening-round playoff games is 104-11-3 ATS since 1980 – an astonishing 89 percent cover rate. Simply put: Whoever wins, covers the spread in the opening round of the NFL postseason.

Last season, the Houston Texas won and covered versus the Cincinnati Bengals, the Green Bay Packers won and covered against the Minnesota Vikings, the Baltimore Ravens won and covered over the Indianapolis Colts, and the Seattle Seahawks won and cover against the Washington Redskins.

In 2011-12, the Texans, Saints, Giants, and Broncos all came away with the SU and ATS victory. In 2010-11, the Seahawks, Jets, Ravens, and Packers were big for fans and bettors during the Wild Card Weekend. In 2009-10, the Jets, Cowboys, Ravens, and Cardinals were good enough for the win and cover. And in 2008-09, the Cardinals, Chargers, Ravens, and Eagles all won SU and ATS.

In fact, the last Wild Card winners to fall short of the spread were the Jacksonville Jaguars, who beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-29 but couldn’t cover as 2.5-point road favorites in the 2007-08 NFL Wild Card Weekend. The three other Wild Card winners that year – Seahawks, Giants, and Chargers – all managed to exceed the oddsmakers’ expectations.

This weekend, oddsmakers have the Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) priced at +115 to win SU versus the Indianapolis Colts, the New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at +130 moneyline underdogs at Philadelphia, the San Diego Chargers (+7) listed at +250 pups in Cincinnati, and the Green Bay Packers (+2.5) are +130 moneyline underdogs at home to San Francisco

Old Post 01-04-14 06:48 PM
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wildcat76
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Where the action is: Saturday's Wild Card line moves

The NFL postseason kicks off with Wild Card Weekend. Saturday features a pair of matchups on the board with the Indianapolis Colts hosting the Kansas City Chiefs, while the New Orleans Saints must face the elements as they visit the Philadelphia Eagles.

We talk to Mike Perry, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag, about the action on Saturday's games.

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts - Open: -1, Move: -2, Move: Pick

Some markets opened the Colts as slight 1-point home favorites while others reacted to the early movement and opened Indianapolis at -2.5. Sharps hit the Colts early on this week, but money has been coming in on the road team over the past 24 hours.

"Sharp play on Friday morning - on KC +2 - so moved them to +1," Perry told Covers. "Another sharp play on the Chiefs this morning, so the line has moved to a pick ‘em. Sixty percent of cash is on Indy."

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles - Open: -2.5, Move: -3

The Eagles opened as high as 3-point home favorites over the Saints, who have notoriously been two-faced away from New Orleans. There has been little-to-no movement on this line until recently, with sharps backing the home favorites earlier Saturday.

"This morning we got sharp play on Philly so moved game to -3," Perry said. "This was first line move of game. Fifty-two percent of cash backing the Eagles."

Old Post 01-04-14 07:32 PM
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"Noteworthy" Cappers: Who's on What???

KC: Raw, Wunderdog, Docs, Paul Leiner, Mighty Quinn, Kelso, Cappers Access, Seabass, Root

IND: Nelly, Mark Lawrence, Ecks, Norm Hitzges, Int Picks, Platinum Sports, Teddy Covers, Northcoast, Lang

OVER: Seabass, Redsuit

UNDER: Platinum Sports, Northcoast, MTI

Old Post 01-04-14 08:16 PM
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Eight days ago, BetOnline set the over/under for NFL coaches fired before the 1st playoff game at 4.5

Old Post 01-04-14 08:31 PM
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"Noteworthy" Cappers: Who's on What???

NO: MTI, Root, Northcoast, Osk, Seabass

PHI: Nelly, Mark Lawrence, Raw, Norm Hitzges, Cappers Access, Platinum Sports, Marco D'Angelo, ATS Lock, Football Crusher, Exec

also several services selling PHI ml as a pick

OVER: Prediction Machine, Int Picks
UNDER: Norm Hitzges, Northcoast, Seabass, Platinum Sports

Old Post 01-04-14 08:38 PM
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wildcat76
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CBB 2nd HALF STEAM =
Seton Hall pk -110 for 2nd Half..

Old Post 01-04-14 09:03 PM
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CBB TRUE STEAM = UNC-WILMINGTON

Old Post 01-04-14 09:33 PM
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With 65% of bettors taking the over in today's Chiefs Colts game, the total has moved from 46 to 48 at CRIS

Old Post 01-04-14 09:35 PM
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CBB TRUE STEAM "SET-UP" = UNDER 127 VIR/FSU

Old Post 01-04-14 09:43 PM
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CBB 2nd HALF STEAM =
UNDER OSU/UTAH, CENTRAL FLA, & TCU..

Old Post 01-04-14 09:55 PM
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