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brian_n_bama
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Registered: May 2005
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2013 Bowl Computer Simulations

As I have done the last several years, I have played each bowl game 20 times. I will post the results for each game as well as how many times of 20 each team covered.

Old Post 12-17-13 05:42 AM
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brian_n_bama
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Bowl results

Washington State 12-8 over Colorado State (33.2-33.5)
USC 12-8 over Fresno State (27.9-21.1)
Buffalo 13-7 over San Diego State (22.7-22.2)
La-Lafayette 13-7 over Tulane (24.6-19.4)
East Carolina 19-1 over Ohio (30.1-13.3)
Boise State 13-7 over Oregon State (30.9-26.7)
Bowling Green 16-4 over Pittsburgh (32.5-22.4)
Northern Illinois 12-8 over Utah State (25.0-22.8)
Maryland 14-6 over Marshall (26.4-25.5)
Syracuse 11-9 over Minnesota (19.0-18.9)
Washington 11-9 over BYU (23.2-23.0)
Notre Dame 18-2 over Rutgers (30.1-13.6)
Cincinnati 10-10 vs North Carolina (22.3-21.5)
Louisville 17-3 over Miami-FL (31.8-22.1)
Kansas State 17-3 over Michigan (27.6-16.0)
Navy 13-7 over Middle Tennessee (23.0-18.3)
Ole Miss 11-9 over Georgia Tech (24.0-21.2)
Oregon 20-0 over Texas (38.3-14.8)
Arizona State 18-2 over Texas Tech (34.5-16.5)
Arizona 17-3 over Boston College (24.0-15.5)
Virginia Tech 13-7 over UCLA (22.3-17.9)
Mississippi State 14-6 over Rice (23.1-20.5)
Texas A&M 12-8 over Duke (33.3-29.6)
Nebraska 11-9 over Georgia (22.9-28.1)
North Texas 12-8 over UNLV (22.3-19.8)
LSU 16-4 over Iowa (32.5-19.6)
Wisconsin 10-10 vs South Carolina (26.5-24.7)
Stanford 11-9 over Michigan State (17.4-14.1)
Baylor 17-3 over UCF (38.7-22.0)
Alabama 15-5 over Oklahoma (33.3-21.3)
Missouri 13-7 over Oklahoma State (23.8-22.1)
Ohio State 14-6 over Clemson (29.5-21.8)
Houston 12-8 over Vanderbilt (20.0-19.3)
Ball State 13-7 over Arkansas State (32.5-26.3)
Florida State 16-4 over Auburn (35.0-24.3)

Old Post 12-17-13 07:05 AM
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brian_n_bama
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ATS using current lines

Colorado State +4 vs Washington State (13-7)
Fresno State +6 vs USC (11-8-1)
Buffalo Pk vs San Diego State (13-7)
La-Lafayette Pk vs Tulane (13-7)
East Carolina -13.5 vs Ohio (11-9)
Boise State +3 vs Oregon State (13-7)
Bowling Green -5 vs Pittsburgh (11-9)
Northern Illinois -1.5 vs Utah State (10-10)
Maryland +2.5 vs Marshall (14-6)
Syracuse +4 vs Minnesota (14-6)
BYU +3 vs Washington (10-10)
Rutgers +15 vs Notre Dame (11-9)
Cincinnati +3 vs North Carolina (10-10)
LOUISVILLE -3.5 vs Miami-FL (13-7) *** (16-4 at -2.5)
KANSAS STATE -3.5 vs Michigan (15-5) *** (16-4 at -2.5, 17-3 at -1.5)
Middle Tennessee +6 vs Navy (12-7-1)
Georgia Tech +3 vs Ole Miss (10-9-1)
OREGON -13.5 vs Texas (15-5) *** (16-4 at -12.5, but 14-6 at -14.5)
Arizona State -14 vs Texas Tech (12-8)
Arizona -7.5 vs Boston College (10-10)
VIRGINIA TECH +7 vs UCLA (18-1-1)
RICE +7 vs Mississippi State (13-5-2) *** (15-5 at +7.5, but 13-7 at +6.5)
Duke +12 vs Texas A&M (12-7-1) *** (Duke won 8 times, but only covered 12 in 4 of the 12 losses)
Nebraska +8.5 vs Georgia (14-6) *** (Nebraska won 11 times, but were beaten by 20+ in 6 of their 9 losses)
UNLV +6.5 vs North Texas (11-9) *** (14-6 at +7.5)
LSU -7 vs Iowa (12-8)
Wisconsin Pk vs South Carolina (10-10)
Michigan State +4.5 vs Stanford (10-10)
Baylor -16.5 vs UCF (10-10)
Alabama -15 vs Oklahoma (11-9)
Missouri -1 vs Oklahoma State (12-7-1) *** (Okla State was 14-6 at +3.5 as Mizzou won 6 times by 1-3 points)
Ohio State -2.5 vs Clemson (13-7)
Houston +3 vs Vanderbilt (14-6) *** (15-5 at +4.5)
Arkansas State +8.5 vs Ball State (11-9)
Auburn +8.5 vs Florida State (11-9)

Old Post 12-17-13 07:06 AM
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brian_n_bama
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2012 Results (14-6 or better was 9-4)

Nevada +8.5 vs Arizona (14-6) -- WINNER
Utah State -10.5 vs Toledo (12-8) -- WINNER
BYU -3 vs San Diego State (12-8) -- WINNER
UCF -7 vs Ball State (11-8-1) -- WINNER
East Carolina +6 vs La-Lafayette (11-8-1) -- LOSER
Boise State -5.5 vs Washington (14-6) -- LOSER
Fresno State -13 vs SMU (11-9) -- LOSER
Central Michigan +6 vs Western Kentucky (11-8-1) -- WINNER
Bowling Green +7 vs San Jose State (12-8) -- LOSER
Cincinnati -8.5 vs Duke (11-9) -- WINNER
Baylor +3 vs UCLA (13-5-2) -- WINNER
La-Monroe -7 vs Ohio (13-6-1) -- LOSER
Virginia Tech Pk vs Rutgers (18-2) -- WINNER
Texas Tech -13 vs Minnesota (13-7) -- LOSER
Air Force Pk vs Rice (11-9) -- LOSER
Navy +13 vs Arizona State (13-7) -- LOSER
West Virginia -4 vs Syracuse (10-9-1) -- LOSER
Texas +3 vs Oregon State (15-5) -- WINNER
TCU -1.5 vs Michigan State (11-9) -- LOSER
Vanderbilt -7.5 vs NC State (15-5) -- WINNER
Georgia Tech +7.5 vs USC (14-6) -- WINNER
Tulsa -1.5 vs Iowa State (14-6) -- WINNER
LSU -6 vs Clemson (10-10)
Purdue +17.5 vs Oklahoma State (13-7) -- LOSER
Northwestern -1.5 vs Mississippi State (14-6) -- WINNER
Nebraska +9.5 vs Georgia (16-4) -- LOSER
South Carolina -5.5 vs Michigan (10-10)
Stanford -4 vs Wisconsin (11-9) -- WINNER
Northern Illinois +14.5 vs Florida State (13-7) -- LOSER
Florida -14 vs Louisville (9-9-2)
Kansas State +8 vs Oregon (16-3-1) -- LOSER
Oklahoma +3 vs Texas A&M (11-9) -- LOSER
Pittsburgh +3.5 vs Mississippi (17-3) -- LOSER
Arkansas State -3.5 vs Kent State (11-9) -- WINNER
Alabama -9.5 vs Notre Dame (14-6) -- WINNER

Old Post 12-17-13 07:14 AM
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brian_n_bama
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2011 Results (28-7 SU, 19-11 ATS, 13-7 or better was 12-5)

Wyoming +7 vs Temple (13-6-1) -- LOSER
Utah State -1 vs Ohio (10-8-2) -- LOSER
San Diego State -6 vs La-Lafayette (12-8) -- LOSER
Fla International -4 vs Marshall (11-8-1) -- LOSER
TCU -10 vs Louisiana Tech (10-9-1) -- LOSER
Arizona State +14.5 vs Boise State (15-5) -- LOSER
Nevada +7.5 vs Southern Miss (13-7) -- WINNER
Missouri -4.5 vs North Carolina (12-8) -- WINNER
Purdue -1.5 vs Western Michigan (15-5) -- WINNER
Notre Dame +3 vs Florida State (12-7-1) -- LOSER
Washington +8 vs Baylor (12-8) -- LOSER
Tulsa -2.5 vs BYU (15-5) -- LOSER
Rutgers +1.5 vs Iowa State (14-6) -- WINNER
Wake Forest +7 vs Mississippi State (10-9-1) -- WINNER
Oklahoma -14 vs Iowa (10-9-1) -- WINNER
Texas A&M -9.5 vs Northwestern (11-9) -- WINNER
Georgia Tech -1.5 vs Utah (13-7) -- LOSER
Illinois -3 vs UCLA (15-5) -- WINNER
Cincinnati +2 vs Vanderbilt (13-7) -- WINNER
Virginia +3 vs Auburn (16-4) -- LOSER
Houston -6.5 vs Penn State (13-7) -- WINNER
South Carolina -3 vs Nebraska (11-9) -- WINNER
Florida -3 vs Ohio State (13-7) -- WINNER
Michigan State +2.5 vs Georgia (13-7) -- WINNER
Stanford +5 vs Oklahoma State (11-7-2) -- WINNER
West Virginia +3 vs Clemson (15-5) -- WINNER
Arkansas -9.5 vs Kansas State (12-8) -- WINNER
SMU +3.5 vs Pittsburgh (17-3) -- WINNER
Northern Illinois +1.5 vs Arkansas State (13-7) -- WINNER
Alabama -1.5 vs LSU (15-5) -- WINNER

Old Post 12-17-13 07:16 AM
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brian_n_bama
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2010 Results (13-7 or better was 11-5)

Clemson (-6.5) 19-1 over Kentucky -- WINNER
Missouri (-6.5) 16-4 over Navy -- LOSER
Air Force (+4.5) 16-4 over Houston -- WINNER
Central Michigan (-2.5) 16-4 over Troy -- WINNER
Pittsburgh (-1) 14-4-2 over North Carolina -- WINNER
Fresno State (-10) 15-5 over Wyoming -- LOSER
Northern Illinois (+6.5) 15-5 over South Florida -- LOSER
Michigan State (+9.5) 15-5 over Texas Tech -- LOSER
Middle Tennessee (+3.5) 14-6 over Southern Miss -- WINNER
Penn State (+2) 14-6 over LSU -- WINNER
UCLA (-4) 12-6-2 over Temple -- WINNER
Wisconsin (+3.5) 13-7 over Miami-FL -- WINNER
Stanford (+10) 13-7 over Oklahoma -- WINNER
Auburn (-9) 13-7 over Northwestern -- LOSER
Boise State (+7) 11-6-3 over TCU -- WINNER
Connecticut (+4) 12-7-1 over South Carolina -- WINNER

Old Post 12-17-13 07:18 AM
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brian_n_bama
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2009 Results (15-5 or better was 4-2)

Iowa -3.5 vs South Carolina (16-4) -- WINNER
Penn State +10 vs USC (15-4-1) -- LOSER
Florida -3 vs Oklahoma (15-4-1) -- WINNER
Arizona -3 vs BYU (14-4-2) -- WINNER
Notre Dame +1.5 vs Hawaii (15-5) -- WINNER
East Carolina -1.5 vs Kentucky (15-5) -- LOSER

Old Post 12-17-13 07:19 AM
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mikeb104
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Registered: Sep 2006
Posts: 7510

I love these every year.

Thanks for doing it and sharing this as well.

GL this Bowl Season




"Not everything you read on the internet is accurate"- Abraham Lincoln

Old Post 12-17-13 02:26 PM
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RDTrains
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Posts: 10728

Good stuff

Thanks for this. Looking forward to March Madness!




Conroe, TX. Wishing I was retired.

Old Post 12-17-13 02:32 PM
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cwin32
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These are gold. Thanks!

Old Post 12-17-13 03:56 PM
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Toby13
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Thank You.




TOBY

Old Post 12-17-13 04:20 PM
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diamondjim
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Awesome.

Thanks for posting.




@1diamondjim
Location : Boston, Mass

Old Post 12-17-13 04:45 PM
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ballinhj12
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Always look forward to this post! Great work my friend and GL this year

Old Post 12-17-13 08:10 PM
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steveko
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thanks for posting these kc

Old Post 12-17-13 09:02 PM
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Brutus5775
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Thanks as always..NBL




My Goal is to Make Money Not Gamble !!

Old Post 12-17-13 09:12 PM
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dld3151
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Great stuff Brian. Thank you!

Old Post 12-17-13 09:46 PM
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geg1951
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thx brian !!




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED

Old Post 12-19-13 05:38 PM
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brian_n_bama
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Final results based on closing lines

Colorado State +4 vs Washington State (13-7) -- WINNER
La-Lafayette +2.5 vs Tulane (13-7) -- WINNER
Buffalo -1 vs San Diego State (12-7-1) -- LOSER
Fresno State +4.5 vs USC (11-9) -- LOSER

Old Post 12-22-13 05:53 AM
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Birdieman3


Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 107

Totals

Brian, do you know how the totals have done in the past or do you just play the sides? Thanks for posting - always look forward to these! Merry Christmas!

Old Post 12-25-13 04:30 PM
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brian_n_bama
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Birdieman

For some reason, the simulations always come up with scores lower. For example, the sims had something like 27-10 under last year. I pretty much ignore unless it is extremely low or if it projects over(like colo st-wash st). As for the sides I take the sims in account but don't go strictly by them.....too many factors that a statistical simulation doesn't account for.

Old Post 12-25-13 05:47 PM
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