Belmont is still trying to find their way after losing their two best players from a year ago in Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson. So far this year, they snuck by a bad Lipscomb team in their annual rivalry game, and lost by 8 on the road at Richmond. They are extremely well coached and won't beat themselves. The main issue early in the year is rebounding, as they're -9.0 RPG. Indiana State is much bigger and should be control the boards.
When in doubt -- Missouri Valley > Ohio Valley. I'll take the points.