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wildcat76
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DCI Predictions, Horses, & More

11/07/13 Scores/Predictions

L.A. Clippers 102.6 at MIAMI 110.1, 7:00 pm ET
Atlanta 100.2 at DENVER 108.5, 9:00 pm ET
L.A. Lakers 107.3 at HOUSTON 115.4, 9:30 pm ET

Old Post 11-07-13 03:38 PM
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Spot Plays

For Thursday
TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (1st) Rebranded, 4-1
(2nd) Mi Hijo, 3-1

Charles Town (6th) Really Bullish, 3-1
(9th) No More Capers, 3-1

Churchill Downs (6th) Commanding Curve, 4-1
(8th) One Fast Frog, 3-1

Delta Downs (3rd) Afleet Eternity, 3-1
(9th) Orphaned, 3-1

Finger Lakes (6th) Grand Treasure, 7-2
(8th) Colleen's Sailor, 5-1

Golden Gate Fields (3rd) Hostile Waters, 7-2
(6th) Lu's Lalabye, 3-1

Hawthorne (1st) Spikey Italiano, 5-1
(9th) Travel Required, 9-2

Hollywood Park (1st) Londinium, 3-1
(6th) Tuckers Point, 7-2

Laurel Park (3rd) Anea, 3-1
(5th) Jerry Love, 7-2

Penn National (6th) Dragonfish, 3-1
(9th) Seriously Simon, 4-1

Remington Park (1st) Kat Queen Cole, 4-1
(3rd) Heza Smokey, 4-1

Old Post 11-07-13 03:39 PM
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Turf Club Analysts

Golden Gate Race 6 for Thursday, November 07, 2013
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Golden Gate - Race #6 - Post: 3:18pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 54

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 SUSANITA (ML=2/1)


SUSANITA - I predict an idyllic trip. Stalk the pace, and make a powerful surge on the turn. Taking a trip down in class ranks; has the class to make her presence felt. Clearly didn't like the surface of the last affair as much as two starts back on the dirt. Watch out today for a return to a sharp race. EPS (earnings per start) is something that I believe can be a very valuable handicapping aspect. This horse is ranked number 1 in this group. You have to be keen on that recent race speed figure, 36, which is the top latest race speed figure of this field. Has a decent chance to break maiden switching to the main track today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 WIN FOR KRISSY (ML=8/5), #3 LU'S LALABYE (ML=3/1), #5 SOMETIMES A LADY (ML=8/1),

WIN FOR KRISSY - This filly likely won't be really close at the wire. LU'S LALABYE - Showed very little in the last contest. Really don't see any hint of any change today. SOMETIMES A LADY - 8/1 is too short of a reward to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back races.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #6 SUSANITA to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
6 with 7

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

Old Post 11-07-13 03:40 PM
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $8500 Class Rating: 83

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 7 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000. OKLAHOMA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 7 PEARLOFTHEORIENT 6/1

# 10 KIP DEBUT 10/1

# 1A WATERTOWN ROAD 12/1

I think PEARLOFTHEORIENT is a decent choice. She has been running admirably and the speed figs are among the top in this group. With a quite good 76 speed figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this contest. Has been moving in the most competitive company of the group recently. KIP DEBUT - Has garnered formidable Equibase Speed Figs in dirt route races in the past. This conditioner has done well as of late with entries running at this distance and surface. WATERTOWN ROAD - This mare has been consistently running well in her latest outings.

Old Post 11-07-13 03:40 PM
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Laurel Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:28pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $42,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#11 SKY WALK (ML=6/1)
#4 MY T SWIFT (ML=2/1)


SKY WALK - Comparing how the horses in this field have fared under similar conditions, I see this horse has the highest speed fig for the distance & surface. I look for an increased ability in this event with the addition of Lasix for the 2nd time. Have to make this filly a win candidate; she comes off a nice outing on Oct 18th. MY T SWIFT - I like to invest in this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a solid contest within the last thirty days. This beautiful animal is racing on the turf for the first time. She should be tough, coming off a second place finish in her race on October 14th on a sluggish track. This filly's last race was better than looked. She showed good early speed, dropped back a bit but held even through to the finish.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 RACE HUNTER (ML=3/1), #9 JERRY LOVE (ML=7/2), #6 LUNDI GRAS (ML=6/1),

RACE HUNTER - Tough to expect this filly to be in form after the long turnout. JERRY LOVE - This filly won last time, but probably won't win today versus tougher competition. LUNDI GRAS - This mount ran a run-of-the-mill speed rating last out. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably lose in today's race running that fig.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #11 SKY WALK on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,11]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
11 with 4 with [1,2,9] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
11 with 4 with [1,2,3,8,9] with [1,2,3,8,9] Total Cost: $20

Old Post 11-07-13 03:41 PM
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Handicapped by Rick Needham at Betfair Hollywood Park

RACE #2 - HOLLYWOOD PARK - 1:00 PM PACIFIC POST
6½ FURLONGS CUSHIONED TRACK THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD OPTIONAL CLAIMING $52,000.00 PURSE

#2 CYCLOMETER
#3 READY FOR MORE
#1 HEAR THE GHOST
#4 ATTA BOY PETE

#2 CYCLOMETER is the overall speed leader in this O.C. field today sprinting at, or about, today's distance of 6½ furlongs on the "dirt," and and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of his last five outings, hitting the board in a pair. #3 READY FOR MORE takes a slight class drop (-1), and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in each of his last three starts. The morning line favorite is #1 HEAR THE GHOST, who has hit the board in each of his three career starts to date, winning twice, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his last start. I did not consider him for my "top slot" though, since that last race was some 242 days ago.

Old Post 11-07-13 03:42 PM
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 78

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,500.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 TANCREDI 3/2

# 2 THATSATRUESTORY 8/1

# 6 EYE WITNESS 5/1

TANCREDI looks to be a formidable contender. His 82 average has this gelding with among the strongest speed figures in this event. This gelding has a strong win percent in dirt sprint races. With Davila uptop him, this gelding should be able to break out sharply for this event. THATSATRUESTORY - Cabrera has this gelding racing well and is a quite good selection based on the very good speed figures recorded in sprint races lately. Shows sound speed figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this group of animals.

Old Post 11-07-13 03:43 PM
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Aqueduct - Race #5 - Post: 2:16pm - Claiming - 9.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $36,000 Class Rating: 98

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 MAJESTIC JESS (IRE) (ML=6/1)
#5 ALE (ML=6/1)
#1A I'M WIDE AWAKE (ML=7/2)
#1 MORE HUNDRED ACRE (ML=7/2)


MAJESTIC JESS (IRE) - I like when a pony has dropped in class at least five pts like this one did in the last race and then runs against a similar field right back. Rodriguez must've found the right level. Owns the highest speed figure on the turf at this distance. Even though he isn't from around here, when a mount has hit the board at a major foreign racing venue he will usually give a good account of himself soon after shipping. ALE - Just missed hitting the board on Oct 14th at Belmont. With decent morning line odds in this event, he has my interest. The last time he tried this distance he got a fig good enough to win this event. Last out, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. What that tells me is he can close well, and should be right there at the finish in this race. I'M WIDE AWAKE - Solid average class rating on this horse. Should have the capability to run well on the turf. Recent Equibase speed figures show powerful pattern of improvement. MORE HUNDRED ACRE - This race horse should be rocking and rolling in the stretch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 RIVER BOSS (ML=3/1), #14 HOPPY DO (ML=7/2), #6 KISS OF THUNDER (ML=4/1),

RIVER BOSS - Finished fourth last time out of the box. Would have to advance to be there at the wire today. HOPPY DO - Finished second in his most recent race with a most unsatisfactory rating. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this group. KISS OF THUNDER - I'm forecasting a lackluster go of it out of him this time out.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ALE - This gelding will be very focused today. The 'hood' will do the trick.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #8 MAJESTIC JESS (IRE) to win if we can get at least 4/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5,8] Total Cost: $6

Old Post 11-07-13 03:43 PM
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Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #6 - 2:45 PM
8.0 FURLONGS DIRT MAIDENS THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $16,000.00 CLAIMING $27,000.00 PURSE

#6 INMYFATHERSIMAGE
#1 SUNNYINSEABROOK
#5 BUNDLER
#7 FLASHY ROSS

#6 INMYFATHERSIMAGE takes a class drop (-7), and will enjoy a speed advantage on this maiden field racing at today's distance of a mile on the dirt, and has been a "POWER RUN PERFORMER" in four of his last five outings, facing substantially better company in those races than he will face in this field today. #1 SUNNYINSEABROOK, a 5-1 shot, also drops in class (-6), and has turned in "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of his last four starts.

Old Post 11-07-13 03:44 PM
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Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings (+1, 51)

The Washington Redskins may have salvaged their season with a pulsating overtime victory on Sunday, but they cannot afford a misstep when they visit the sliding Minnesota Vikings on Thursday night. The Redskins won their final seven games to win the NFC East title in 2012 and hope Sunday's dramatic win fuels another playoff run. “The way we won the game, I think it can be a turning point for us," quarterback Robert Griffin III said. "It’s definitely a bonding experience."

Washington needed a last-second goal-line stand to hold off San Diego before winning overtime, but Minnesota was unable to do the same in Dallas and allowed the Cowboys to drive 90 yards for the winning touchdown in a 27-23 defeat. It marked the fourth consecutive loss for the Vikings, leading to some grousing from the players regarding the coaching staff. "There’s some things that are going on internally that are not allowing us to close out games," defensive end Brian Robison said.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Washington opened as a 1-point road favorite and has moved as high as -2.5 at some books. The total has climbed from 48 to 50.5 points.

WEATHER: N/A

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Redskins (+2.5) - Vikings (+7.0) + Home Field (-3.0) = Vikings +2.0

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (3-5, 3-5 ATS): Although Griffin received much of the credit for the team's success in his rookie campaign, much of last season's success hinged on a powerful ground game led by Alfred Morris, who rumbled for a season-high 121 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries against the Chargers. Griffin threw for 291 yards and completed a season-high 71.9 percent (23-of-32) of his passes in the most well-rounded offensive performance of the season. "Whenever we’ve been on throughout the season, we’ve done a better job of just mixing things up," Griffin said.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (1-7, 3-5 ATS): Minnesota has already had three different quarterbacks start this season, but Christian Ponder will be under center for a third consecutive game. Ponder was solid against the Cowboys, although he will be without one of his favorite targets in tight end Kyle Rudolph, who suffered a fractured foot against Dallas and is expected to be sidelined for about a month. Running back Adrian Peterson, who had been dealing with a hamstring issue for weeks, tied his season high with 140 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's defeat.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in Redskins last seven road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Vikings last five home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Minnesota has won two of the last three meetings - all in Washington - but the Redskins prevailed 38-26 last season.

2. Griffin ran for a career-high 138 yards in last season's matchup with the Vikings.

3. Minnesota and Washington rank 30th and 31st in points allowed at 31.5 and 31.6 points, respectively.

Old Post 11-07-13 03:50 PM
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Dunkel

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 7

Game 109-110: Oklahoma at Baylor (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 102.886; Baylor 113.839
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 11; 77
Vegas Line: Baylor by 15; 72 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (+15); Over

Game 111-112: Troy at UL-Lafayette (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 69.980; UL-Lafayette 92.563
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 22 1/2; 72
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 13; 67
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-13); Over

Game 113-114: Oregon at Stanford (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 121.452; Stanford 108.334
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 13; 56
Vegas Line: Oregon by 10; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-10); Under

Old Post 11-07-13 03:51 PM
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No. 12 Oklahoma faces No. 5 Baylor Thursday night
by Mark Kern

Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Baylor -14, Total: 74

One of the biggest games in school history takes place on Thursday night as No. 5 Baylor hosts Big 12 rival, No. 12 Oklahoma in Waco.

Last season, the Bears played spoiler as they upset No. 1 Kansas State. This season, they are the team with national title aspirations, and will be looking to avenge last season’s 42-34 loss in Norman. While they were unable to get the victory, they had success running the ball, gaining 252 yards on the ground. However, that offense is not near as electric as this season’s team is, and this game is also in Waco where Baylor is 16-2 ATS at home over the past three seasons. Art Briles has completely turned the program around, and a win over Bob Stoops and Oklahoma would go a long way in cementing their place as legitimate national title contenders. However, the Sooners are playing for a lot as well, as a win here puts them right back into the Big 12 title race. OU quarterback Blake Bell has had his ups and downs, but he can still be very good running the ball. In the victory over Baylor last season, Bell scored the winning touchdown by running 55 yards to the end zone. However, he must have a big game throwing the ball too, because the Sooners are going to have to score a ton to keep up with the Bears who lead the nation in both scoring (63.9 PPG) and total offense (718 YPG). For the Sooners to stay in this game, they are going to have to dominate the time of possession with one of the best rushing attacks in the country.

The Sooners enter Thursday night’s game ranked 14th in the country in rushing, with 234 yards per game. They are the prime example of running back by committee, with four players having rushed for at least 235 yards. Brennan Clay (90 carries, 538 yards, 3 TD) is the leader of the bunch, and is a strong running back that is very patient when hitting the hole. If Oklahoma is going to be able to run the ball, then the playmakers on the outside will have a chance to make big gains all night. One of those guys to look out for is Jalen Saunders (35 catches, 431 yards, 5 TD), who is quickly becoming QB Blake Bell’s go-to receiver, and he is coming off an outstanding performance in the Sooners most recent game, a 38-30 victory against Texas Tech two weeks ago. In that game, Saunders had 153 yards and two touchdowns, providing the big plays that his team needs in order to keep up with Baylor. Sterling Shepard (33 catches, 391 yards, 5 TD) is another guy that has the ability to attack the Baylor defense deep. While the offense is going to have to score some points, the defense is going to have to make some plays too. The Sooners rank 14th in the country in scoring defense, allowing just 18.8 points per game. However, they have not been challenged by an offense like this. Aaron Colvin is an outstanding cornerback, and he is going to be a key in slowing down the Bears' great passing attack. He is also very good against the run, and will be used all over the field. The Sooners defense must play well, because if they don’t, the Bears could turn this game into a rout early.

The Bears offense enters the game ranking first in the country in scoring (63.9 PPG) and passing (417.3 YPG), but they also rank seventh in rushing with 301.1 YPG. What Baylor is doing on offense right now is downright scary. Quarterback Bryce Petty is emerging as a legitimate Heisman trophy candidate, throwing for 2,453 yards and 18 touchdowns, while throwing only one interception. Petty has one of the strongest arms in the country, and has the ability to go deep to receivers Antwan Goodley (38 catches, 894 yards, 8 TD) and Tevin Reese (33 catches, 824 yards, 8 TD). Both of these receivers have elite speed that can take it the distance every time they touch the ball, forcing the safeties to stay back and make sure they don’t get beat deep. This opens up running lanes for Lache Seastrunk, who is one of the elite running backs in all of the country. On the season, he has rushed for 869 yards and 11 touchdowns, on a staggering 9.1 yards per carry. Seastrunk in the offseason was very confident in his team’s ability, and so far he has more than backed up his talk. While the offense gets most of the credit for their incredible production, the defense is quietly putting together an incredible season. The Bears rank 6th in the country in scoring defense, giving up a mere 15.9 points per game. The defense started to show improvements late in last season, and have continued throughout the 2013 campaign. Senior Ahmad Dixon has played very well all season, and is one of the leaders on the Bears defense. He currently has 40 tackles on the year, and is a factor in both the run and the pass. Waco will be rocking like never before on Thursday night, and the key will be whether the Bears can handle the atmosphere in a positive way, or if they come out too emotional and make mistakes.

Old Post 11-07-13 03:55 PM
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Hot teams
-- Miami won its two home games, by 12-10 points. Clippers won three of their last four games.
-- Rockets won four of their first five games.

Cold teams
-- Nuggets are 0-3, losing by 2-15-8 points. Atlanta lost two of three on road, losing by 2-9 points.
-- Lakers lost three of their last four games.

Series records
-- Clippers lost last four visits to Miami by 24-11-18-23 points.
-- Nuggets won five of their last six games with Atlanta.
-- Lakers lost four of last six games with Houston.

Totals
-- Four of five Clipper games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Atlanta-Denver games went over the total. Over is 4-0 in Hawks' games this year.
-- Nine of last eleven Rocket-Laker games went over the total.

Old Post 11-07-13 05:49 PM
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LA Clippers at Miami

The Heat look to take advantage of a Clippers team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games in Miami. Miami is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 7
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 701-702: LA Clippers at Miami (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 116.924; Miami 132.560
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 15 1/2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 5; 210 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5); Under

Game 703-704: Atlanta at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 115.226; Denver 116.190
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 1; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 3 1/2; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3); Over

Game 705-706: LA Lakers at Houston (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 115.033; Houston 123.646
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 8 1/2; 224
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 13 1/2; 219
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+13 1/2); Over

Old Post 11-07-13 06:59 PM
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Montreal at Ottawa

The Canadiens look to take advantage of an Ottawa team that is 0-5 in its last 5 home games. Montreal is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Canadiens favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+105). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 7
Time Posted 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Florida at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 9.630; Boston 11.125
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-260); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-260); Under

Game 53-54: Montreal at Ottawa (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 12.306; Ottawa 11.473
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+105); Over

Game 55-56: New Jersey at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.369; Philadelphia 10.150
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+125); Over

Game 57-58: Minnesota at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.921; Washington 13.423
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-115); Under

Game 59-60: NY Islanders at Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 10.890; Carolina 9.970
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (-110); Over

Game 61-62: NY Rangers at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.097; Columbus 12.522
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (-140); Under

Game 63-64: Dallas at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.483; Detroit 12.906
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Under

Game 65-66: Edmonton at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.945; Tampa Bay 10.805
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-220); 6
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+180); Over

Game 67-68: Calgary at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.454; St. Louis 11.564
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-270); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+230); Over

Game 69-70: Vancouver at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 11.808; San Jose 13.427
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-175); Under

Game 71-72: Buffalo at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 9.655; Los Angeles 11.209
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-265); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-265); Under

Old Post 11-07-13 07:00 PM
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Los Angeles Clippers at Miami Heat (-5.5, 209.5)

Two of the most talented - if underachieving - teams in the league thus far square off when the Miami Heat host the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday. The defending champion Heat have won two straight, but they've hardly looked like a slam-dunk pick to repeat, dropping road games to lowly Philadelphia and banged-up Brooklyn. The Clippers might have been looking ahead to the showdown with Miami when they lost 98-90 at Orlando on Wednesday, snapping a three-game winning streak.

Miami hasn't had trouble finding the basket, topping 100 points in each of its first five contests - a franchise record to start the season. Los Angeles lit up the scoreboard through its first four games before going cold against the Magic. The teams split a pair of matchups last season with the home team winning each; Miami has won four straight at home in the series.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TNT, TSN

LINE: Miami opened 5.5 and went as high as -6. The total opened at 210.5 and is down to 209.5.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Clippers (-12.5) - Heat (-15.0) + Home Court (-3.0) = Heat -6

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (3-2, 3-2 ATS): Los Angeles was red-hot before falling flat in Orlando, posting its two lowest-scoring quarters of the season including a 16-point effort in the fourth. The shots wouldn't fall, as the Clippers went 3-for-19 from 3-point range and shot 37.9 percent overall. The performance certainly was not indicative of a team that shoots 47.5 percent for the season and has four players averaging 17 points or more.

ABOUT THE HEAT (3-2, 2-3 ATS): Miami was impressive in its 104-95 win at Toronto on Tuesday without forward Chris Bosh, who was with his wife for the birth of a child. Bosh will be back against the Clippers, and the Heat seem to have received a wake-up call from their two early losses. They still boast one of the most talented lineups in the league, and LeBron James is again putting up huge numbers with 25.6 points, eight assists and 5.6 rebounds per game.

TRENDS:

* Over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in Miami.
* Over is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings.
* Home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.
* Clippers are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings in Miami.

Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets (-13, 218)

Dwight Howard faces his former team for the first time when the Houston Rockets star center leads his team into a home matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday. Howard had one rocky season with the Lakers before jumping ship and signing an $88 million deal with the Rockets this offseason. He was booed in a return to the Staples Center to play the Clippers on Monday, but is off to a solid start with Houston, including a 29-point, 13-rebound effort in a 116-101 win at Portland on Tuesday.

Without Howard in the fold and still playing without injured superstar Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles has limped out of the gate, giving up an average of 109 points, second-most in the league entering play Wednesday. Lakers starters produced 32 points on 12-of-34 shooting in a 123-104 loss at Dallas on Tuesday. Point guard Steve Nash continued his slow start with five points and four assists in 20 minutes.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE: Houston opened as -13.5 and has come down to -13. The total opened at 217.5 and is up to 218.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Lakers (-4.6) - Rockets (-12.0) + Home Court (-3.0) = Rockets -10.4

ABOUT THE LAKERS (2-3, 3-2 ATS): According to Elias, Tuesday was the first time since the NBA-ABA merger that no Lakers starter scored more than 10 points. It continued an inconsistent start without Bryant that has coach Mike D'Antoni going back to the drawing board. "You can't get blown out and then think now we need to learn to win," he told reporters after the loss to Dallas. "No, we need to learn how to play."

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (4-1, 3-1-1 ATS): Given that it came the night after a blowout loss in Los Angeles, the Houston win in Portland was impressive. The Rockets shot 54.7 percent from the floor, outrebounded the Trail Blazers by a whopping 47-30 margin and seemed to get stronger as the second half of the back-to-back dragged on, outscoring Portland by 10 points following intermission. With Howard leading the way with an NBA-high 14.6 rebounds entering Wednesday's action, Houston ranks second in rebounding differential (10.2).

TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Houston.
* Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.
* Lakers are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Old Post 11-07-13 07:00 PM
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Thursday, November 7, 2013
Oklahoma at Baylor (-15) 7:30 ET FS1
This is one of the biggest value games of the season. Consider the following: in the last 14 games between these two teams, Oklahoma has been favored by an average of 27 PPG. That includes last year when as 21 point favorite, they defeated Baylor 42-34. At the start of the season, Oklahoma would have been favored by as many as 7 points in this game. But because Baylor has put up video game offensive numbers against Wofford, Buffalo, LA Monroe, WVU, Iowa St., and Kansas, this line has soared into the stratosphere. Greatest point of comparison is the Baylor 35-25 victory at Kansas St. (they trailed in the 2nd half) against the only quality team they have faced. In that game, the Wildcats controlled the ball on the ground with a strong running game. Look for Oklahoma to do the same. That is exactly the MO that HC Stoops and the Sooners used in our top rated CFB October GOM winner vs. TTRR, another aerial circus. It means something that Oklahoma has won 21/22 of the recent games in the series. Since that loss to Oklahoma, Baylor has gone 11-0 SU, 10-1 ATS (covering by 18 PPG) and 8-0 SU ATS on this field. That all changes today; when they meet a quality team who can control the line of scrimmage against them.

Troy at LA Lafayette (-13) 7:30 ET ESPNU
It was not that many years ago that Troy was churning out Sun Belt titles like clockwork. But, the rest of the league has caught up to them. Tonight, they enter on an 18-28 ATS slide with a record this year of 5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS. At 6-2 SU for the season, 3-0 SU ATS in league play, Lafayette is the league leader. The Ragin Cajuns enter on a 6 game win streak. The last 4 of which were all by 14 or more points. HC Hudspeth is on a run of 22-12 ATS. The Cajuns have the best OL and DL play in the league. On offense, they average 227/5.0 running and 217/8.6 passing, good for 38 PPG. Note the record of 153-37 ATS (81% to play on any CFB team who runs and passes for 200 or more yards, if there opponent does not). The one dimensional (passing) offense of Troy and inferior defense allowing 35/472 is no match for the league leader.

Oregon (-10) at Stanford 9:00 ET ESPN
Classic matchup of a high-flying Ducks’ spread offense against the ground and pound methodology of Stanford. In the last 2 regular seasons, spanning 20 games, Oregon has scored 42 or more points every game, EXCEPT in their lone loss in that timeframe, a 17-14 home defeat to Stanford which prevented them from playing for the National Championship. Does Stanford have the game plan to shoot down the Ducks? There is a major reason why that may not occur. It is on the defensive side of the ball, where last year’s Stanford defense allowed just 17/336. This year, the Cards are just a bit more permissive at 19/354. Meanwhile, Oregon’s defense has improved from 22 to 17 PPG. You will pay a bit of an inflated price to back Oregon because since that loss to Stanford, they have gone 10-0 SU, 9-1 ATS and have covered 12 consecutive games on the road. This year, they are winning by an average count of 56-17. With the Kansas Jayhawks and Andrew Wiggins not suiting up until tomorrow night (against LA Monroe), best advice for this contest is Rock Chalk, Flock.

Old Post 11-07-13 07:01 PM
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Winning Points

PRO BASKETBALL
*Miami over Los Angeles Clippers by 7
This is the Clippers' first time this season playing in the second of back-to-back
games. The Clippers lost by 22 when they last visited Miami back in February.
MIAMI 103-96.

*Denver over Atlanta by 6
Denver's scoring has been down in the early going minus Danilo Gallinari and Wilson
Chandler, their second and third leading scorers from last season. This is the Hawks'
third road game in five days, though.
DENVER 94-88.

*Houston over Los Angeles Lakers by 9
Dwight Howard won't lack for motivation after a disappointing stay with the Lakers
last season. The combination of Howard and Omar Asik could control the boards
while the Rockets maintain a big backcourt edge with James Harden and Jeremy Lin.
HOUSTON 108-99.

Old Post 11-07-13 07:02 PM
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Coldest offensive starts to the season

The first week of the NBA season often results in some of the clunkiest, clumsiest basketball fans will see all year - and the 2013-14 campaign is no exception.

A handful of teams have had trouble generating much offense and that list includes clubs expected to rank among the highest-scoring units in the league. The sample size may be small, but further struggles may be cause for concern.

Here are four teams that could use some offensive fine-tuning:

New York Knicks (92 points per game; O/U: 2-2-0)

The Knicks are only going to go as far as their up-and-down offense will take them. And through the first four games of the season, that offense has them 1-3 and struggling for answers. Star forward Carmelo Anthony is shooting just 37.1 percent from the field and isn't getting much help from a meager supporting staff. The loss of Tyson Chandler to a fractured fibula will only hamper the Knicks further, since it forces them to either give Amar'e Stoudemire or Kenyon Martin more minutes or play (gasp) Andrea Bargnani in the middle - a move that almost certainly won't end well.

Denver Nuggets (93.3 ppg; O/U: 1-2-0)

The Nuggets look nothing like the team that led the NBA in scoring a season ago, favoring a half-court attack over the up-tempo assault they rode to a 57-win campaign. The departure of Andre Iguodala and a major injury to Danilo Gallinari has severely dampened Denver's ability to run the floor, resulting in far fewer transition baskets. The secondary scoring should improve - no player other than Ty Lawson is averaging more than 11 points per game - but fans hoping for a return to last year's triple-digit explosions will likely be disappointed.

San Antonio Spurs (99.8 ppg; O/U: 2-2-0)

While coming up just shy of 100 points per game is nothing to complain about, it pales slightly in comparison to the 103-point average the Spurs had last season. The explanation for the modest scoring drop is simpler here than in other examples: the Spurs are taking - and making - fewer 3-pointers than they did in 2012-13. San Antonio averaged better than eight 3s on 21.5 attempts last year and are at just 6.5 3-pointers on 17.3 attempts so far this season. If Danny Green (22.2 percent) can find his long-range stroke - and history says he will - the Spurs will be back over 100 soon.

Sacramento Kings (94.5 ppg; O/U: 2-2-0)

This seems more like the real Kings, as opposed to the often-dysfunctional but strangely-effective unit that boasted a Top-10 scoring average last season. With their most accurate perimeter shooter from last season (Tyreke Evans) now playing for New Orleans, guard Isaiah Thomas has actually emerged as a solid No. 1 option, averaging better than 20 points on 49 percent shooting. It's the rest of the key players - aside from all-world center DeMarcus Cousins - that have regressed, resulting in the Kings shooting just 41 percent from the field. Expect it to get worse, as Thomas isn't likely to stay hot all year.

Old Post 11-07-13 07:05 PM
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Where the action is: Sharps, public split on Redskins-Vikings total

The Washington Redskins and Minnesota Vikings duke it out on Thursday Night Football in Week 10. We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this primetime matchup and where the odds could end up come kickoff Thursday night.

Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings – Open: +2.5, Move: +1

Some sportsbooks are dealing this spread as low as Minnesota +1, however, the majority of markets still have this line sitting just under a field goal as of Thursday afternoon. According to Stewart, the early money was on the road favorite but the books were hesitant to jump to Redskins -3, instead adjusting the juice from -110 to -120.

“That's where we've been most of the week,” Stewart tells Covers. “So far 75 percent of the action is on the Redskins. I believe sharps are waiting to see if this line gets to -3, but at this point I doubt we'll get there. “

The total has been the number to watch for this Thursday nighter. The over/under was posted as low as 48 points at some books and took a huge wave of early action on the Over, forcing a move as high as 51. The sharp money bought back the Under and dropped the total to 50.

“We’ve seen this a lot on these bigger primetime games, where the sharps are against the public, and that's what we have on this total. Sharps on the under, public betting it over,” says Stewart. “Our exposure on the Over is getting a bit heavy and I wouldn't be surprised if we get to 50.5, but I doubt we'll get back all the way to 51.”

Old Post 11-07-13 07:07 PM
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