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playtowin
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World Series Game 1***2013

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Playing Game 1 @ H:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team playing Game 1 @ home (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 MLB Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 819-400 (.672)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 162-83 (.661)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 89-71 (.556)
series record, MLB only, Finals round: 60-44 (.577)
Game 1 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 820-399 (.673)
Game 1 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 165-80 (.673)
Game 1 record, MLB only, all rounds: 91-69 (.569)
Game 1 record, MLB only, Finals round: 62-42 (.596)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1219 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 MLB Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

SERIES NOTES:

Pre-series assessment: In the 2013 MLB regular season, Boston finished tied with St. Louis in terms of regular season record (97-65 each). From 1905 through the 2013 MLB Semifinals round, inclusive, the MLB team with home field advantage in such a situation (Boston) posted a 4-1 (.800) best-of-7 series record in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1220 is the 30th best-of-7 MLB playoff series for St. Louis, and the 20th for Boston. In best-of-7 MLB playoff series, St. Louis has a 17-12 series record, an 11-7 Finals-round series record, and a 12-17 Game 1 record (with an active three-Game 1 winning streak), while Boston has a 10-9 series record, a 6-4 Finals-round record, and an 11-8 Game 1 record. Series 1220 is the fourth best-of-7 MLB playoff series meeting between St. Louis and Boston: St. Louis won series 59 (the 1946 MLB Finals) and 186 (the 1967 MLB Finals); Boston won series 938 (the 2004 MLB Finals).

Old Post 10-23-13 06:41 PM
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playtowin
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ADDING

Wainwright has three straight postseason starts of at least seven innings, with one or no runs allowed. Only three pitchers in history had more such consecutive starts in the postseason: Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina and Christy Mathewson.

Old Post 10-23-13 07:36 PM
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St. Louis Cardinals 97-65 (60%) @ Boston Red Sox 97-65 (60%)

A. Wainwright, my #5 ranked SP, starting for St. Louis Cardinals, has a FIP of 2.55 (#4 in MLB), xFIP of 2.8 (#4 in MLB), tERA of 3.22 (#10 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.01 (#7 in MLB), with a BABIP of .305, LOB% of 75%, and E-F of 0.39. He has a K/BB ratio of 6.26, with a WHIP of 1.07, and opponent BA of .244. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 23%, GB%: 49%, FB%: 28% for a 1.78 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.

J. Lester, my #62 ranked SP, starting for Boston Red Sox, has a FIP of 3.59 (#56 in MLB), xFIP of 3.9 (#79 in MLB), tERA of 4.03 (#49 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.97 (#75 in MLB), with a BABIP of .3, LOB% of 74%, and E-F of 0.17. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.64, with a WHIP of 1.29, and opponent BA of .252. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 20%, GB%: 45%, FB%: 35% for a 1.27 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 8%.

St. Louis Cardinals have the #3 bullpen, #10 offense (#6 vs Righties / #20 vs Lefties), and are rated #29 in fielding. They have a road record of 43-38 (53%), ranked #6 in MLB and have Won 6 in a row.

Boston Red Sox have the #11 bullpen, #1 offense (#1 vs Righties / #8 vs Lefties), and are rated #11 in fielding. They have a home record of 53-28 (65%), ranked #3 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.

Odds: STL +114 (47%) BOS -123 (55%) O/U = 7

Old Post 10-23-13 10:38 PM
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playtowin
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ADDING--

St.L is 0-5 Interleague vs LHP this yr.

Old Post 10-23-13 10:59 PM
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playtowin
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ADDING--

Winner of game 1 in World Series has won
9 of last 10 & 21 of last 25 World Series.

Old Post 10-23-13 11:08 PM
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