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RDTrains
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 10583

NCAAF Tuesday 10/22

Ull/ARK ST Under 34 1st H risk 2.5 units

Only 1 of the last 12 games between the two of these teams have gone over 34 points in the first half. Then why the "high" total? Perception is both teams seem to start conservative and run the ball to start the game.

Reality is ULL is averaging 38 PPG and has played 3 Top 55 Defenses. Arkansas State Defense is 94th. WKU was the only Top 50 Offense ULL has faced all season, they gave up 470 yards, and the 2nd straight road trip for ULL against Top 50 Offense, could make them a little vulnerable, especially a 2nd straight Tuesday Night, while ASU has 10 days to prepare.

With two Top 25 Offenses, one thing to consider is both teams are very good in turnover margin.

Play Over - All teams where the first half total is >=31.5 (ARKANSAS ST) - mistake-free team - committing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
(38-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.9%, +28.1 units. Rating = 4*)




The more people I meet the more I love my dogs.

Old Post 10-22-13 11:03 PM
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pshinnamon
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Registered: Apr 2005
Posts: 5573

Like it as well RD

Pete




Terpman

Old Post 10-22-13 11:17 PM
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gregcrtwrght


Registered: Jan 2010
Posts: 462

Call me stupid

but the top of write-up says you are playing under first half and bottom of write-up trend says play the over. So you are going against the write-up?

Old Post 10-22-13 11:43 PM
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RDTrains
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 10583

Correction

Ull/ARK ST Over 34' 1st H risk 2.5 units

So used to betting Unders I couldn't initially even type "Over" ...

Old Post 10-22-13 11:49 PM
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CUBANO
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Registered: Jan 2009
Posts: 12942

Attaboy!

Ray...I was just about to post "ddin't you mean the over?"
Lol




EL CUBANO

Old Post 10-22-13 11:54 PM
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okie


Registered: Oct 2004
Posts: 265

Good luck RD

Old Post 10-23-13 12:03 AM
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RDTrains
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 10583

Adding ...

Teaser risk 1 unit:
[102] ARKANSAS STATE +8-110 (B+6)
[101] UL - LAFAYETTE o63-110 (B+6)




The more people I meet the more I love my dogs.

Old Post 10-23-13 12:42 AM
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playtowin


Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 8218

CFB ATS Trend

Louisiana is 7-0 ATS vs. team's averaging 250 or more passing yards a game the last three seasons.

Old Post 10-23-13 01:00 AM
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