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ebemiss


Registered: Dec 2008
Posts: 257

2013 Tennis projections/picks

I've been working on a Tennis model that will generate a money line based on an estimated win pct from a list of rankings I've compiled. Here are 8 matches today. (4 men, 4 women).

I've been playing any wrong side favorite with positive results. For example player A is -135 in the match, my number has player B -115. Unfortunately there aren't any of those plays today in the matches, I ran, but it's something to look at going forward.

I also don't have a particular cutoff set in stone yet when the line differs from my number to make it a play. As you'll see below, if you compare to the actual line, some of the matches may be off 10 cents or as high as 50 cents. I'm still working on a cutoff I feel comfortable with as I'm trying to narrow the error margin in my rankings.

One play on the women's side shows that it should be about twice as big a favorite as it currently is. 4854 P. Kvitova is -160. My number has her about -300.

I'm going to post the numbers for next week's US open once all the match ups are listed. Thought I'd share. Any feedback or suggestions from guys that play this market is appreciated.

Today's matches.

Men's

R Berankis-Lithuania
S Querrey-United States -202

D Tursunov-Russia -252
J Melzer-Austria

F Verdasco-Spain
G Monfils-France -131

A Dolgopolov-Ukraine -139
Y Lu-Chinese Taipei


Women's


E Makarova-Russia
S Halep-Romania -151

C Wozniacki-Denmark -163
S Stephens-United States

A Pavlyuchenkova-Russia
P Kvitova-Czech Republic -300

K Zakopalova-Czech Republic
E Vesnina-Russia -156

Old Post 08-22-13 07:25 PM
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Kostyan
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Registered: Jun 2003
Posts: 3161

ok so you play all favs?

Old Post 08-22-13 07:34 PM
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ebemiss


Registered: Dec 2008
Posts: 257

where does it say that?

Old Post 08-22-13 08:08 PM
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timande
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 1235

if line is off that much it might be something you bet the other way

A Pavlyuchenkova-Russia
P Kvitova-Czech Republic -300


maybe you should take Pavlyuchenkova

Old Post 08-22-13 11:12 PM
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timande
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Registered: Nov 2006
Posts: 1235

I think Kvitova pulled it off...


will be following this thread


thanks

Old Post 08-22-13 11:19 PM
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Kostyan
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Registered: Jun 2003
Posts: 3161

ok

Old Post 08-22-13 11:19 PM
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ebemiss


Registered: Dec 2008
Posts: 257

No. Going to look for plays that differ from my number and the book. Suggested above the value was on P Kvitova.

I'm just trying to find my comfort zone when the line differs on different price levels.

If a line is off 50 cents and the line is -180 I'll probably look to make a play.

If it's off 50 cents and the line is -300 I may pass.

As I'm starting to feel more comfortable with my rankings and the numbers they are generating I'll set a more rigid criteria for a play.

I just don't think playing against my number at this point in the process is the way I want to grow the model.

Thanks for the feedback.

Old Post 08-22-13 11:22 PM
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ebemiss


Registered: Dec 2008
Posts: 257

8.23 Projections

Men's

S Querrey-United States -268
J Melzer-Austria

A Dolgopolov-Ukraine
G Monfils-France -185

Women's

S Halep-Romania
C Wozniacki-Denmark -125

K Zakopalova-Czech Republic
P Kvitova-Czech Republic -197

Old Post 08-23-13 12:00 PM
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ebemiss


Registered: Dec 2008
Posts: 257

8.24 projections for 2 finals. Both lines moved in the direction of my numbers from last night. (losing some value on the dog) I played:

4861 SIMONA HALEP +110 (BM)

Women's

S Halep-Romania -114
P Kvitova-Czech Republic

Men's

J Melzer-Austria
G Monfils-France -254

Old Post 08-24-13 12:15 PM
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ebemiss


Registered: Dec 2008
Posts: 257

Here are projections for 1st round Monday/Tuesday action. Think I'm missing 1 game didn't have info on a player. Found a few that fit the wrong side favorite profile I've been using so I posted them below. All lines from bookmaker. Treading lightly first 2 days so I can continue to tweak the numbers.

Picks record

1-0 (+1.10)

8.26

Women's

4512 ANABEL MEDINA GARRIGUES +150
4537 ESTRELLA CABEZA CANDELA +125
4554 ALEXANDRA CADANTU +155
4559 CAROLINE GARCIA +115

Men's

4075 KENNY DE SCHEPPER +135
4108 FRANK DANCEVIC +195

Projections

Monday

S Williams-United States -5332
F Schiavone-Italy

G Voskoboeva-Kazakhstan
M Niculescu-Romania -105

Y Shvedova-Kazakhstan -199
O Puchkova-Russia

P Mayr-Achleitner-Austria
M Rybarikova-Slovakia -713

J Hampton-United States -991
L Arruabarrena-Vecino-Spain

K Mladenovic-France
A Medina Garrigues-Spain -139

I Begu-Romania
U Radwanska-Poland -190

M Minella-Luxembourg
S Stephens-United States -1460

K Flipkens-Belgium
V Williams-United States -140

K Bertens-Netherlands
J Zheng-China -115

C Vandeweghe-United States -164
A Krunic-Serbia

L Davis-United States
C Suarez Navarro-Spain -239

K Kanepi-Estonia -442
V King-United States

S Voegele-Switzerland -141
AK Schmiedlova-Slovakia

K Pliskova-Czech Republic
E Bouchard-Canada -331

L Hradecka-Czech Republic
A Kerber-Germany -974

A Radwanska-Poland -3747
S Soler-Espinosa-Spain

M Torro-Flor-Spain
M Erakovic-New Zealand -209

E Cabeza-Candela-Spain -113
A Barty-Australia

V Razzano-France
A Pavlyuchenkova-Russia -247

E Makarova-Russia -320
P Hercog-Slovenia

M Johansson-France
B Mattek-Sands-United States -433

P Ormaechea-Argentina
K Date-Krumm-Japan -111

V Dushevina-Russia
S Lisicki-Germany -440

J Jankovic-Serbia -214
M Keys-United States

M Puig-Puerto Rico -207
A Kleybanova-Russia

K Nara-Japan
A Cadantu-Romania -134

S Fichman-Canada
S Cirstea-Romania -263

L Robson-Great Britain -111
L Dominguez-Lino-Spain

C Garcia-France -116
S Rogers-United States

P Cetkovska-Czech Republic -143
S Arvidsson-Sweden

O Govortsova-Belarus
N Li-China -1189

Tuesday

C Wozniacki-Denmark -1088
Y Duan-China

C Scheepers-South Africa -246
C Simmonds-South Africa

J Cepelova-Slovakia
C Giorgi-Italy -115

S Hsieh-Chinese Taipei
K Zakopalova-Czech Republic -399

E Vesnina-Russia -420
A Beck-Germany

K Knapp-Italy
G Min-United States -130

L Tsurenko-Ukraine
L Safarova-Czech Republic -146

T Babos-Hungary
R Vinci-Italy -704

M Kirilenko-Russia -258
Y Wickmayer-Belgium

M Larcher De Brito-Portugal -208
E Daniilidou-Greece

D Vekic-Croatia -207
M Duque-Marino-Colombia

H Watson-Great Britain
S Halep-Romania -660

S Kuznetsova-Russia -152
M Burdette-United States

S Peng-China -187
Y Meusburger-Austria

N Gibbs-United States
F Pennetta-Italy -117

A Morita-Japan
S Errani-Italy -502

P Kvitova-Czech Republic -1095
M Doi-Japan

B Jovanovski-Serbia
A Petkovic-Germany -391

T Pironkova-Bulgaria
A Riske-United States -174

J Larsson-Sweden
M Barthel-Germany -327

N Petrova-Russia -327
J Glushko-Israel

M Lucic-Croatia -398
S Vickery-United States

M Sanchez-United States
D Hantuchova-Slovakia -185

V Duval-United States
S Stosur-Australia -1249

A Ivanovic-Serbia -807
A Tatishvili-Republic of Georgia

V Lepchenko-United States -178
A Dulgheru-Romania

J Goerges-Germany
C Mchale-United States -167

E Svitolina-Ukraine
D Cibulkova-Slovakia -230

A Cornet-France -366
MJ Koehler-Portugal

C Dellacqua-Australia -105
A Tomljanovic-Croatia

A Wozniak-Canada -158
V Dolonts-Serbia

D Pfizenmaier-Germany
V Azarenka-Belarus -3944


Men's


R Gasquet-France -1071
M Russell-United States

S Robert-France -194
A Olivetti-France

J Struff-Germany
G Rufin-France -130

A Bedene-Slovenia
D Tursunov-Russia -395

F Lopez-Spain -490
F Serra-France

K De Schepper-France -109
B Klahn-United States

A Kuznetsov-Russia
D Sela-Israel -254

P Cuevas-Uruguay
J Tipsarevic-Serbia -575

E Gulbis-Latvia -1633
A Haider-Maurer-Austria

M Kukushkin-Kazakhstan -224
A Martin-Slovakia

R Bautista-Spain -124
T Bellucci-Brazil

N Kyrgios-Australia
D Ferrer-Spain -1722

R Federer-Switzerland -4115
G Zemlja-Slovenia

S Giraldo-Colombia
C Berlocq-Argentina -125

T Robredo-Spain -149
M Matosevic-Australia

R Haase-Netherlands
F Dancevic-Canada -108

A Ramos-Spain
B Tomic-Australia -255

K Nishikori-Japan -874
D Evans-Great Britain

F Verdasco-Spain -156
I Dodig-Croatia

N Davydenko-Russia -396
R Williams-United States

R Dutra Da Silva-Brazil
V Pospisil-Canada -446

R Nadal-Spain -4441
R Harrison-United States

Tuesday


N Djokovic-Serbia -10344
R Berankis-Lithuania

B Becker-Germany -149
L Rosol-Czech Republic

L Kubot-Poland
J Nieminen-Finland -200

J Sousa-Portugal
G Dimitrov-Bulgaria -1179

B Paire-France -145
A Bogomolov Jr.-Russia

B Paire-France -232
A Bogomolov Jr.-Russia

T Smyczek-United States -136
J Duckworth-Australia

M Granollers-Spain -849
J Zopp-Estonia

F Fognini-Italy -544
R Ram-United States

T Haas-Germany -933
P Mathieu-France

Y Lu-Chinese Taipei -175
D Gimeno-Traver-Spain

D Goffin-Belgium
A Dolgopolov-Ukraine -221

M Youzhny-Russia -579
N Mahut-France

J Melzer-Austria -337
E Donskoy-Russia

I Sijsling-Netherlands -107
P Gojowczyk-Germany

L Hewitt-Australia -267
B Baker-United States

JM Del Potro-Argentina -1177
G Garcia-Lopez-Spain

A Murray-Great Britain -4369
M Llodra-France

V Hanescu-Romania
L Mayer-Argentina -186

D Young-United States -157
M Klizan-Slovakia

F Mayer-Germany
J Monaco-Argentina -125

A Seppi-Italy -148
X Malisse-Belgium

L Lacko-Slovakia
S Devvarman-India -262

T Kamke-Germany
S Johnson-United States -141

D Istomin-Uzbekistan
N Almagro-Spain -197

S Wawrinka-Switzerland -309
R Stepanek-Czech Republic

J Blake-United States
I Karlovic-Croatia -111

M Baghdatis-Cyprus -119
G Soeda-Japan

D Brands-Germany
K Anderson-South Africa -385

J Benneteau-France -675
M Przysiezny-Poland

S Stakhovsky-Ukraine
J Chardy-France -106

J Vesely-Czech Republic -140
D Kudla-United States

P Lorenzi-Italy
T Berdych-Czech Republic -2602

P Andujar-Spain
T de Bakker-Netherlands -146

T Fabbiano-Italy
M Raonic-Canada -1083

J Janowicz-Poland -950
M Gonzalez-Argentina

J Sock-United States
P Petzschner-Germany -125

H Zeballos-Argentina -124
A Mannarino-France

G Pella-Argentina
S Querrey-United States -668

F Volandri-Italy
J Isner-United States -1212

A Montanes-Spain -133
E Roger-Vasselin-France

Old Post 08-25-13 09:27 PM
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ebemiss


Registered: Dec 2008
Posts: 257

add

4100 CARLOS BERLOCQ +101

Old Post 08-26-13 06:43 PM
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ebemiss


Registered: Dec 2008
Posts: 257

8.27

Men's

4037 DONALD YOUNG +100
4084 PHILIPP PETZSCHNER +155
4101 HORACIO ZEBALLOS +235
4117 ALBERT MONTANES +210

Women's

4576 GRACE MIN +140
4618 CHRISTINA MC HALE +145

Old Post 08-27-13 12:37 AM
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ebemiss


Registered: Dec 2008
Posts: 257

Picks record

6-7 (+0.65)

Caught a break with PETZSCHNER retiring.

Old Post 08-27-13 11:11 PM
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