I've been working on a Tennis model that will generate a money line based on an estimated win pct from a list of rankings I've compiled. Here are 8 matches today. (4 men, 4 women).
I've been playing any wrong side favorite with positive results. For example player A is -135 in the match, my number has player B -115. Unfortunately there aren't any of those plays today in the matches, I ran, but it's something to look at going forward.
I also don't have a particular cutoff set in stone yet when the line differs from my number to make it a play. As you'll see below, if you compare to the actual line, some of the matches may be off 10 cents or as high as 50 cents. I'm still working on a cutoff I feel comfortable with as I'm trying to narrow the error margin in my rankings.
One play on the women's side shows that it should be about twice as big a favorite as it currently is. 4854 P. Kvitova is -160. My number has her about -300.
I'm going to post the numbers for next week's US open once all the match ups are listed. Thought I'd share. Any feedback or suggestions from guys that play this market is appreciated.
S Querrey-United States -202
D Tursunov-Russia -252
G Monfils-France -131
A Dolgopolov-Ukraine -139
Y Lu-Chinese Taipei
S Halep-Romania -151
C Wozniacki-Denmark -163
S Stephens-United States
P Kvitova-Czech Republic -300
Here are projections for 1st round Monday/Tuesday action. Think I'm missing 1 game didn't have info on a player. Found a few that fit the wrong side favorite profile I've been using so I posted them below. All lines from bookmaker. Treading lightly first 2 days so I can continue to tweak the numbers.