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playtowin


Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 8318

Good Analysis All Star GM**7-17-13

So, who will win?

When you have the best players playing against each other for just one game, this question is a real dilemma that requires a lot of analysis. Looking back at past All-Star games results, there are a few specific elements that will be interesting for predictions:


First, the winning lead is almost always taken before the 6th inning. With the exception of an extra inning game (2008) and a tie before the 6th (2009), this is the case for 5 out of 8 for the last 10 All Star Games. This is due to the quality of the relieving pitchers. Pitchers at the All-Star games are the best in Major League Baseball and they rarely concede runs; the coaches have depth in their bench. Therefore, I will not consider the relief pitcher at the end of this All-Star game in my prediction, as I might normally do in a regular game where the relief pitchers are not as skilled.


Secondly, the starters are selected for their batting skills, not their defense. While the offensive production is a priority in a one-game challenge, a lack of focus on defensive skills could be enough to lose a game. In the last 10 All-Star games, 8 games have seen at least one error. The error factor is not essential but the defensive range is.

Old Post 07-16-13 10:07 PM
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playtowin


Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 8318

ADDING

the defense


It would be too much to give a profound analysis of each of the starters’ defensive skills so i will give a quick overview of the two most important defensive positions: the catcher and the short-stop. The catcher influences the game with his defensive skills and his sense of the game. The short-stop leads the infield defense. His range and skills will determine the strength of the infield.


Catcher fielding:

Joe Mauer (AL - Minnesota Twins) vs Yadier Molina (NL - St Louis Cardinals)


At first, these two catchers seem to have a pretty similar influence on the game: their defensive rating and their ability to catch runners is almost the same except for the range factor. For example, Molina is a better defensive player. The main difference is the ERA of the pitcher while they are catching: Maurer has a 4.07 ERA and Molina a 3.22. This difference seems small but it shows a lot. Molina has better approach and sense of the game and it will help the National League team..


Short-stops fielding statistics

J-J Hardy (AL - Baltimore Orioles) vs Troy Tulowitski (NL - Colorado Rockies)

Old Post 07-16-13 10:10 PM
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playtowin


Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 8318

ADDING

(If you disagree with this selection, look closer at the May, June and July batting statistics. For example, Chris Davis’ statistics are dropping. While he can still drive the ball high over the fence, he often lacks contact, resulting in a lot of strikeouts -he was the MLB leader for strikeouts in June. He can still make home runs with bad pitches, but Tuesday night he will be facing the best pitchers in the League.


If you look at the statistics (all statistics I used come from www.parlayz.com), you will notice that the American League batters are stronger than the National League ones. This comparison derives from a consideration of the statistical differences between AL and NL pitchers. If you look at the overall ERA team ranking, you will notice that a significant number of NL teams are ahead. This means that the batters are stronger in the AL, but the pitchers are weaker. Therefore, we can consider that the batters of the NL and AL have really close performance statistics.

However, my comparison represents 5 out of 9 AL batters against 6 out of 8 for the NL. NL batters are a bit underrated, but more of them are still in their hot period. Considering all this and the chances for a batter to out-perform, I will give half a run to the NL.


So far with this analysis I see the NL winning by 1 run. Now I will develop my reflexion on the starters’ performance and see if the starting pitcher can overturn this result.

Old Post 07-16-13 10:14 PM
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playtowin


Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 8318

ADDING

Tulowitski has a better fielding percentage and made only one error in his last 60 games, whereas Hardy made 7 errors in 90 games. Tulowitski also has a defensive range above league average while Hardy is a bit under. This situation will provide a defensive advantage to the National League, especially against right handed batters. On the other hand, the American League batter will probably be robbed of a couple of hits.


The differences in shortstops will influence the game and will be to the advantage the National League. All the batters selected will face great defense but the batter of the AL will have a harder time showing what they can do against those defence.

I consider this analysis as a half run advantage for the NL.


The first thing I look at with the batter is their consistency and their recent success. Some batters have their numbers drop significantly after a good start early in the season. For this game, I decided to consider the batters’ impact on the game as minor. They might still bring RBIs or runs but the productive at bats and the unproductive situation will cancel each other out in my opinion.


While formulating my analysis, I kept an eye on 5 batters out of 9 for the AL and 6 out of 8 for the NL.

AL: Cano, Cabrera, Trout, Bautista, and Ortiz


NL: Molina, Votto, Tulowitski, Wright, Beltran, and Gonzales

Old Post 07-16-13 10:16 PM
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playtowin


Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 8318

ADDING

Pitching Starters

To compare the starting pitchers of the AL and NL, I looked closely at the batting average against them, the WHIP (walk + hit per inning pitched) and their ERA. I have been considering it already for the season and even more since the 1st of June. According to what I have seen, the NL pitchers are stronger and they bring a more quality start. This will result in a more consistent early game with less production for the offense.For me, that is enough to translate to a full point for the NL.

As a result, my analysis shows me that the NL will win by at least 2 points and take an early lead (before the 5th inning).

Old Post 07-16-13 10:19 PM
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playtowin


Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 8318

ADDING

As of 5:20pm...Sportsbookspy has bet%
at A.L. RL 51% / A.L. ML 63% / O/U 69%
OV

Old Post 07-16-13 10:26 PM
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