- Sports Handicapping Community

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

The FoxDen Forum : Powered by vBulletin version 2.3.0 The FoxDen Forum > Sports Handicapping, Trends, and Stats > Cnotes 2013 Preakness All You Need To Know !
Search The Fox Den Forum:

Subscribe to this Thread

Last Message   Next Message
Message    Post A Reply
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11992

Cnotes 2013 Preakness All You Need To Know !

Preakness Breakdown

May 17, 2013

Part I · Part II

2013 Preakness Stakes Breakdown

PP Horse ML Odds Jockey (Preakness Record) Owner (Preakness Record)

1 Orb 1/1 Joel Rosario (0-1) Shug McGaughey (0-2)

Notes: I almost feel like I’m wasting our time writing about the Derby winner because there really isn’t much left to say, and what is left has been said by Shug, who normally doesn’t say a peep. I’ve had the absolute privilege of knowing and looking up to Shug for the better part of the past 25 years and never, ever heard him use the words “freaky” and “breathtaking” about any other horse. The rail draw doesn’t bother me because he’s going to be coming from off the pace anyway and has the best in the business on his back. Rosario is plenty aggressive enough to not allow any of his fellow riders to keep him trapped down inside because it’s not like Orb has to come from so far back. I think the morning line is a pipedream but if he’s even money or higher, everyone who bets him to win should be arrested for stealing.

2 Goldencents 8/1 Kevin Krigger (Debut) Doug O’Neill (1-1)

Notes: You’d have to say this guy was one of the top three disappointments in the Derby because he ran about three steps. Never got to the front, let alone loose on the lead, and was an afterthought at the half-mile pole. I don’t think he liked the slop at all and Krigger did the right thing by protecting him and pulling him up through the stretch. O’Neill looking for back-to-back wins in this and you’d have to think he’s telling the jock one thing in the paddock: GO!!! Like in the Derby, however, I’m pretty sure he’s not going to be the only one giving those instructions and while the others might not be as emphatic as he should be, it should be enough to take this guy out of the picture at somewhere around the top of the stretch.

3 Titletown Five 30/1 Julien Leparoux (0-5) D. Wayne Lukas (5-37)

Notes: The first of three from the Hall of Fame Lukas’ barn, I have to think this colt will give Goldencents fits on the front end. I know Lukas has said he wasn’t sending but from that draw I don’t think he has a choice. Not only is he inside but he’s right next to the main speed. Look for him to pack it in even earlier than his next door neighbor will.

4 Departing 6/1 B.J. Hernandez (Debut) Al Stall, Jr. (0-1)

Notes: This isn’t much of a spoiler alert but I’m just letting you know that you’re not going to read an excessive amount of positive comments after I finish with this gelding. If Orb falls, it almost has to be at the hooves of Departing. I’ve been known to do goofy things sometimes and they actually work out, like picking Bernardini in the 2006 renewal over the ill-fated Barbaro, and would have tinkered ever-so-briefly with the idea of making him my ttop pick IF he had a rider change. I know Hernandez had ridden him to four wins in five career starts but when the real money, and coveted Derby points were on the line in the Louisiana Derby, he gave this horse a terrible, terrible ride. Jammed up in traffic a bunch, had to start and stop on him….it was a nightmare, yet he still finished third. Crushed them in the Illinois Derby last out when racing in mid-pack from his outside post and could be awfully dangerous should he sit the same trip. A must use on all exotic tickets and the only horse I would save with on a pick three or pick four ticket.

5 Mylute 5/1 Rosie Napravnik (Debut) Tom Amoss (0-1)

Notes: My friend Veronica ALWAYS asks me “who’s the mudder?” before the Derby each year, whether the forecast is for perfect weather or a monsoon. I was ready for her this year with two answers: Oxbow and Mylute. I also told her I didn’t think it would matter with Mylute and it didn’t. Sure he came flying late but he didn’t hit the board and wasn’t in any gimmicks. I honestly believe that he ran the best race he possibly could and still wasn’t relevant. The only reason he’s second choice on the morning line is because he was closest to the favorite at the end of the Derby. He figures to take a lot of “bad” money as Napravnik always gets action and figures to get even more than usual as this is a homecoming of sorts. Plus, I’m not sure what kind of trip he’s going to sit. Too many questions along with zero value translates to a toss for me.

6 Oxbow 15/1 Gary Stevens (2-16) D. Wayne Lukas (5-37)

Notes: “Mudder 2” actually grabbed the lead turning for home in Louisville under his 50 year old rider who wasn’t even riding seven months ago. Got the worst of it at the draw in the Derby but faired much, much better in Baltimore with this pull. He won’t be stuck down along the inside on Saturday like he was at Churchill, a place you rarely want to be, especially over a wet course unless your name is Calvin Borel. He’s outside the two main speeds and should be with the second flight of horses going down the backside. His best races have come against a notch below the best of what we’ve seen of this crop so far but I think the trip he should work out can grab him a minor award. Using on bottom on trifectas and superfectas.

7 Will Take Charge 12/1 Mike Smith (1-14) D. Wayne Lukas (5-37)

Notes: Normally after the Derby, you’ll hear from about half the trainers that their horse encountered trouble or had an overall bad trip. Most of it is hogwash but in such a large field a few usually do get a rough run of it. Apparently, if you’re drinking the Kool=Aid, it was this colt two weks ago. Yes, he got stopped behind a tiring Verrazano and just so happened to be moving with Orb when it happened. But anyone who thinks he’d have hit the board is out of their mind. Lukas ran him in the Derby off a seven week rest and now wheels him right back. The rider change to Smith should help and while I think he can sneak his way into tris and supers if he gets a perfect set-up, I honestly think Lukas is using his last race and this one to have hime primed for the Belmont Stakes in three weeks. I will use him on bottom of tris and supers but it’s more of a knock against the rest of these than a testament to him.

8 Govenor Charlie 12/1 Martin Garcia (1-2) Bob Baffert (5-13)

Notes: Not sure what was going on with him in the weeks leading up to the Derby I just know he didn’t enter and for Baffert to not run in the Derby this horse wasn’t right. So the question is: if he wasn’t right two weeks ago hy should I think he’s right now? Earlier this week Baffert was still saying he wasn’t definite for the race until he stepped on the plane, and he didn’t do that until Wednesday, which was draw day. He’s lightly raced, beat absolutely nothing in his lone stakes try when he set the track record in the Sunland Derby but that was nearly two months ago. Baffert always takes some money on big race days but he won’t take any of mine in the Preakness.

9 Itsmyluckyday 10/1 John Velazquez (0-5) Eddie Plesa, Jr. (0-1)

Notes: On the walk over to the Derby paddock, Plesa was aked about how his horse would like the wet track. He said he’s won over it, trains fantastically over it and it would definitely improve his chances. Plesa must be a big Meatloaf fan because he must think that two out of three ain’t bad because this guy didn’t run two steps. Form has really tailed off since winning back to back stakes at Gulfstream this winter and while he did finish second to Orb in the Fla. Derby someone had to. He gets a huge rider switch to Johnny V but he’s not a magician. Post doesn’t mean anything in the Preakness, but the Preakness is still a horse race and the nine hole is the nine hole. Not sure what type of trip he’ll pull from out there but I’m not sure it will matter. Likely a cut below some of these and not for me.

Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 05-18-13 02:50 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11992

Preakness Countdown - Part II

May 16, 2013

Kentucky Derby winner ORB will try to make it six in a row and add the second jewel of racings’ Triple Crown to his already gaudy resume when he takes on eight rivals in the 138th running of the Preakness this Saturday at Pimlico. Five of his Derby foes are coming back for a second shot at Orb while three new shooters will be running in an American classic for the first time.

It took Orb, by the now fashionable sire Malibu Moon, four starts to break his maiden, which he did going, a mile at Aqueduct last fall. In those first three efforts, Orb encountered some trouble at the start and dealt with some bad gate problems he had early on in his training.

Orb certainly proved the past is the past this winter at Gulfstream, rattling off three straight come from behind victories in three races, including the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, that couldn’t have set up more differently if they tried. Whether they sizzled or dawdled early on it made no difference to Orb who always came running late to take care of his business.

In the Derby they sizzled once again and Orb was probably further off the pace than anyone, including his trainer Shug McGaughey, could have imagined. Once again, though, it mattered little. Over a sloppy track, Orb was kept off the pace and out of any trouble by his rider Joel Rosario and began to pick horses off one by one. In the stretch, Orb stormed to the lead and drew away to a 2 ½ length score.

Beaming with confidence, McGaughey set Orb’s itinerary hours after his Derby tally, announcing the colt would have a work the Monday or Tuesday before the Preakness and would ship soon after. True to his word, Orb worked a sensational half mile in :47 on 5/13 and boarded a van for Baltimore several hours later.

Perhaps the horse with the best chance of stopping Orb’s impressive run is an old friend of his, DEPARTING. You see, like most of Orb’s fellow color-bearers he was born at the storied Claiborne Farm, who in turn is one of Departing’s owners. As yearlings, Orb and Departing shared a paddock for almost a year. Less than three years later, they’ll share a racetrack with Departing trying to stop Orb from making history.

No slouch himself, Departing has won four of his five starts and should be able to work out a pretty nice trip in the Preakness. After winning his first three starts for trainer Al Stall, Jr, including a minor stakes at Sam Houston, Departing tried the big boys in the Louisiana Derby, and in my opinion, got a terrible ride from B.J. Hernandez, who Stall has decided to stick with.

At the Fair Grounds that day, Departing was a bit further off the pace than usual then encountered a couple of blindswitches heading into the far turn. By the time Departng was free and clear of traffic it was over and Departing finished third , beaten 3 ¼ lengths.

Stall abandoned any Derby thoughts and pointed Departing to the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne Park, a race overlooked by the Kentucky Derby Points System, that was now being marketed as a Preakness prep. Sporting Lasix for the first time from post 13, Departing raced wide throughout but rolled to a 3 ¼ length score nonetheless.

Since that race, Stall hasn’t done much with Departing, working him a half mile twice at Churchill, in :49 on 5/2 and :50 2/5 on 5/12.

Trainer Eddie Plesa Jr. has to be hoping the third time’s the charm for his colt ITSMYLUCKYDAY when it comes to toppling the Derby winner. He first tried in the Florida Derby as the 8-5 favorite and actually had the lead turning for home before Orb went by him in mid-stretch then made very little noise as one of those “under the radar” types in Louisville where he finished fifteenth, exactly 22 ¼ lengths behind his rival.

After the race, Plesa said the sloppy track was likely to blame for the poor performance despite having said on the walk over to the paddock that he’d already trained and run well over wet tracks in the past.

In his two starts this year before running into Orb, Itsmyluckyday has been the center of attention, galloping home by six lengths in the Gulfstream Park Derby on New Years’ Day before grinding out a two length score over Eclipse champ Shanghai Bobby in the Holy Bull.

By Lawyer Ron, Itsmyluckyday has won five or his eleven starts overall and will get a huge rider change to John Velazquez on Saturday. After not breezing Itsmyluckyday in the nine days before the Derby, Plesa worked his colt a sharp half mile in :47 1/5 between races at Monmouth Park on 5/12.

One Derby also-ran that did seem to relish the off going was MYLUTE, a fast closing fifth, beaten a shade under four lengths despite having raced wide and encountering some early traffic under Rosie Napravnik, who’ll be riding in her first Preakness after cutting her teeth and first making somewhat of a name for herself on the Maryland circuit.

Napravnik and Mylute, a son of Midnight Lute, teamed up once prior to the Derby and the result was a resounding 10 ¾ length allowance score in the final start of his two-year-old campaign that included a pair of wins and placings in a couple of stakes at Delta Downs, including a third place finish in the Delta Jackpot.

While that allowance win was easily his most visually impressive performance to date, his two fastest have been in his last pair of starts since trainer Tom Amoss removed the blinkers Mylute had worn throughout his career. Two starts back, Mylute just missed capturing the Louisiana Derby when he fell a neck short to third place Kentucky Derby finisher Revolutionary.

Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 05-18-13 02:57 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11992

At the Gate - Preakness Stakes

May 18, 2013

It’s time to get our Preak On.

Kentucky Derby winner Orb will take on eight foes in the $1 million Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico, and I cannot seem to find anyone that thinks the colt will get beat.

In Friday’s early betting the colt was 4-5, down from the even money morning line, and I don’t think his price is going to go up much by post time. In fact if Mother Nature makes an appearance, his price may actually go down.

Yesterday the forecast called for a 30% chance of showers, but as of 1:30am eastern as I write this (I can sleep in on Sunday) the chance of rain has risen to 50%, from early morning right up until post time.

Basically what that means is despite all of that sophisticated equipment, The Weather Channel has no idea whether it is going to rain or not. As I have said before, if the talking heads at The Weather Channel picked and wagered on horses like they predict the weather, Jim Cantore would be living in a cardboard box.

We know Orb will have no problem handling an off-track if the rains do come, but keep in mind the Pimlico surface does dry out rather quickly.

I am hoping the weather does not affect the earlier races on the card which includes five races carded for the grass.

I have attended about a dozen Preakness Days at Pimlico, and have pretty much seen it all. From a drunken fan taking a swing at Artax, to the Running of the Urinals on the infield, to a power outage where I had to spend the afternoon in the jockey’s room to get away from the stifling heat.

This year I will be watching and wagering from the comfort of home in Florida and while I may not have a huge wager on the Preakness itself, the other races on the card are just outstanding. There is going to be a ton of value to be had.

In addition, do not forget that Belmont Park is running today. I have been on a nice roll, with nine winners on top the past couple of days.

With $178,780 in the win pool this is how the early odds for the Preakness shake out:

1. Orb 4-5
2. Goldencents 7-1
3. Titletown Five 23-1
4. Departing 11-1
5. Mylute 7-1
6. Oxbow 14-1
7. Will Take Charge 12-1
8. Govenor Charlie 11-1
9. Itsmyluckyday 9-1

My Multi-Track Report for Saturday includes my nine strongest plays from Belmont Park and Pimlico.

Here is today’s opening from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Clm $20,000B (1:05 ET)
6 Tazered 12-1
13 Loukas 5-2
12 Pocket Cowboys 8-1
10 Yankee Fourtune 3-1

Analysis: Tazered stalked the early pace, made a good middle move by going to the inside in upper stretch and the could not go with the top pair in a third place finish last out at this level in his first go off the claim by the Englehart barn. The gelding s claimed for $20,000 two back and was given a 2 1/2 month break by his new connections. He has run well on turf fin his career, landing in the money in 5 of 8 starts without picking up a win. He has a solid turf pedigree, by Mizzen mast out of a Spinning World mare. We will give him another look here and should catch a decent price in a wide open race.

Loukas returns off a two month break after spending the winter in Florida. He was a decent fifth two back off a 1 month layoff facing Alw-2 optional claimers, then regressed second out, tiring to finish tenth. He drops into a softer spot here and adds blinkers. Note the barn is 32% winners (with a +ROI ) when adding the hood. The gelding is a two time winner on the lawn and is the logical one to beat on the class drop.

WIN: #6 to win at 6-1 or better.
EX: 6,13 / 6,10,12,13
TRI: 6,13 / 6,10,12,13 / 3,6,10,12,13

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 9 The Vagrancy Hcp G2 (5:17 ET)
2 Miss d'Oro 4-1
4 Spectacular Sky 5-2
6 Fantasy of Flight 7-2
3 Withgreatpleasure 5-1

Analysis: Miss d'Oro tracked the early pace from the outside and could not get to the winner last out in the stretch in a runner up finish in the Distaff 'Cap (G2) on the Big A. The filly caught a racing strip that as kind to inside speed that day. She zipped through her first two allowance conditions in her two previous starts and really seems to be putting it all together. Not much separates the top contenders in here but she looks like the value of the race if she goes off near her 4-1 morning line.

Spectacular Sky set the early factions and could not match strides late with the winner in the Inside Information (G2) last out at Gulfstream Park going seven furlongs. The winner was Aubby K who came back to win the Humana Distaff (G1) in her next outing on May 4 at Churchill Downs. The filly owns solid early and mid-pace numbers and is going to be part of a lively early pace.

WIN: #2 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,6
TRI: no play

Today's Featured Race of the Day from Pimlico:

PIM Race 11 The Dixie G2 (5:25 ET)
7 Howe Great 12-1
4 Imagining 5-1
9 Swift Warrior 4-1
5 Doubles Partner 6-1

Analysis: Howe Great looks primed for a good effort here for the Graham Motion barn and Team Valor. The multiple stakes winner is coming off a game win against a really tough group of allowance runners last out at Keeneland going nine furlongs in his second start off a 4 1/2 month break. Among the runner he beat that day were turf graded stakes winners Turralure, Air Support and Al Khali. The colt has landed in the exacta in 7 of his 10 trips and looks pried for another top effort here third off the bench. Solid value if this guy goes off near his 12-1 morning line.

Imagining came off a came off a 8 1/2 month layoff with a sharp win against Alw-3 optional claimers at Keeneland. It was snot as tough a field as our top pick faced, but he finished up well and the lightly raced five year old is Grade 1 placed and has landed in the exacta in 7 of 9 career starts. The Shug barn is 21% winners with runners making their second start off a +180 day layoff. I also like this guy's pedigree. He is by Giant's Causeway out of the stakes winner Daydreaming ($696,680).

Swift Warrior returns off a three month break, last out taking the Tampa Bay (G3) with a good late rally. The five year old has run well off the bench in the past and is in good hands with the Terranova barn that is 20% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. He gets a jock upgrade here to Rosie.

WIN: #7 to win at 6-1 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 4,5,7,9
TRI: 4,7 / 4,5,7,9 / 1,4,5,7,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R1: #6 Tazered 12-1
R1: #12 Pocket Cowboys 8-1
R4: #5 Chardey 8-1
R5: #2 Change At Jamaica 12-1
R7: #2 You Tarzan 8-1
R8: #7 In My Eyes 10-1
R8: #6 Jonrah 20-1
R10: #7 Katmanstu 12-1

Good luck today!

Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 05-18-13 03:01 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11992

2013 Preakness Stakes Odds

2013 Preakness Stakes Odds

Post Position Horse Jockey *Trainer ML Odds

1 Orb Joel Rosario Shug McGaughey 1/1

2 Goldencents Kevin Krigger Doug O’Neill 8/1

3 Titletown Five Julien Leparoux D. Wayne Lukas 40/1

4 Departing Brian Hernandez, Jr. Albert M. Stall, Jr. 6/1

5 Mylute Rosie Napravnik Tom Amoss 5/1

6 Oxbow Gary Stevens D. Wayne Lukas 15/1

7 Will Take Charge Mike Smith D. Wayne Lukas 12/1

8 Govenor Charlie Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 12/1

9 Itsmyluckyday John Velazquez Eddie Plesa Jr. 10/1

* Morning Line Odds are created by Pimlico Race Course oddsmaker Frank Carulli

Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 05-18-13 03:03 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11992

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

-- Ottawa lost 4-3 at Pittsburgh; home teams are now 6-0 in second round of NHL playoffs.

-- Keegan Bradley followed his 60 on Thursday with a 69, leads by three shots at the Byron Nelson tournament in suburban Dallas.

-- Matt Harvey won 3-2 at Wrigley and knocked in winning run in his first win in his last five starts.

-- 17 of the last 19 Tampa Bay games went over the total, and with Price on the DL, they figure to play a lot more high scoring games.

-- Indians are 23-17, tied for first; Terry Francona for Manager of Year?

-- Astros/Marlins are both 11-31, but at least Houston has a plan; they will be a good franchise down the road. Jeffrey Luria is the worst owner in all of sports. Not sure why MLB allows him to be part of their group.


Armadillo: DDLohaus handicaps the Preakness.........

Two weeks sure go by fast….and I bet the horses coming back after mixing it up over the Churchill Downs muck are wishing it went by slower….thus the rationale for my column.

We certainly got our money’s worth from Normandy Invasion in the Derby and his absence only strengthens my position; that race took a lot out of the horses that ran in it! Of the 20 horses entered only six are coming back this weekend in the 138th Preakness.

Orb ran a great race and is strictly the one to beat here. The Derby field was solid and the weather proved to me he is a gomer and I believe this is not a very strong field. The problem is there is no value in betting an even money horse. Those horses that are coming to Maryland from the Derby are sure to be weary AND really never had a shot in the race. The second, third and fourth place finishers are all passing and the newcomers weren’t in the Derby for a reason.

One caveat; Goldencents didn’t really do much running so maybe he bounces back here and gets brave on the front end and holds on for second. He showed more coming into the Derby and I am willing to give him a pass.
As I look at the field and try to come up with a wager I must admit that I am less than enthused and at a loss for how to make a worthwhile wager. I will be rooting for Orb so that we have a shot for a Triple Crown Winner in three weeks in New York.

After much consideration here is my one wager:
$20 Exacta Orb/Goldencents
That’s it….
Good Luck!


Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud........

13) Other NBA owners have to be excited that the Kings sold for $535M; Sacramento mayor Kevin Johnson can now go back to being doing mayorly things. The former NBA star worked his butt off to keep the Kings in town, and he has succeeded. Hope the voters appreciate his efforts and re-elect him.

12) Damn, Bernie Madoff’s victims lost a total of $65B, that’s billion, with a B. Where did all that money go?

Prison is too good for this evil bastard; they should let him loose on the street and let his victims have at him.

11) When Stephen Strasburg went eight innings at Petco Thursday, it was the first time in his big league career he threw eight innings in a game- that took me by surprise.

10) Syracuse is already making noise about wanting the ACC tournament in Madison Square Garden; wonder what Coach K and Roy Williams think about that?

Didn’t the Big East keep MSG as the site of its conference tournament? The ACC is Tobacco Road country; Orange alums better get used to it.

9) New Zealander Steven Adams, who will be a first round draft pick next month, has 17 siblings—17!!!!! No wonder he left Pitt after one year, although one more year would’ve helped his game thrive in the professional ranks.

8) Kentucky’s Nerlens Noel not only is out until at least December with a knee injury, he weighed in at 6-10, 206. Historically, skinny forwards haven’t fared that well in the NBA. Another kid who could’ve used some extra time to let his body mature and his knee heal, but if he’s a top-5 pick, $10M guaranteed is awful hard to turn down. Not sure Adams will get picked that high, but Noel will.

7) One of the underrated difficulties for Japanese baseball players coming over here are the long plane flights. Japan is a smaller country; the teams travel by train. A coast-to-coast plane trip takes some getting used to. Apparently Daisuke Matsuzaka had a real problem pitching on the first day after a long plane trip.

6) Atlanta Braves played 26 of their first 40 games on road, so they’ll have lot of home games coming up-- they got Jason Heyward (appendix) back this weekend, so they’re hopeful of putting a win streak together.

5) Twins pitcher Vance Worley once had a sneaker collection of around 400 pair that was worth $28-30,000; now he’s down to about half that, but he says the collection is still worth $20,000 or so. I have six pairs and haven’t bought a new pair since 2010.

4) 14-year old Guan Tianlang made cut at his first two PGA Tournaments, but he shot 70-77 this weekend and missed his first pro cut.

3) Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel threw out the first ball at Petco Thursday night, after shooting 79 at Pebble Beach earlier in the week; he seems to be getting around an awful lot. The sophomore-to-be at Texas A&M is playing in Marshall Faulk’s charity golf event this weekend; hope he’s not neglecting his football preparation—he’s going to be a marked man this fall.

2) “Always assume you’re being videotaped.” In this day and age, you just might be. If the mayor of Toronto had followed this advice, his life might be a whole lot simpler these days.

1) Dick Vitale hosted his gala for the V Foundation in Florida last night; the V Foundation has raised over $100 million over the last twenty years to combat cancer. Vitale is a tireless, enthusiastic worker for this cause and deserves a lot of credit for doing so much, even if at times, it seems like its all he ever talks about. It’s an important cause, so good for him.

Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 05-18-13 03:06 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11992

Pimlico: Track bias a key to cashing on Preakness Day

Whether they play Pimlico regularly or not, many horseplayers across the country will, for better or worse, make their biggest plays of the weekend on races there Friday and Saturday. Of course, the bigger races, including Friday's Black-Eyed Susan Stakes and Saturday's Preakness, will have fields comprising largely shippers, but most of the races on the undercard will consist of local runners. And to get an edge in those races it helps to have an understanding of recent track trends.

A very dull rail strongly influenced the outcome of races on the main track at Pimlico for a period of about two weeks recently, starting on Thursday, April 25, and running through Sunday, May 5. That period encompasses eight cards, and during that time there were 52 races run on the dirt.

Through the first week, from the 25th through the 28th, there was not a single winner who was on the rail for the duration of the race, outside of a 4 ½-furlong dash for 2-year-olds. The second week of the bias, from May 2nd through the 5th, there were a total of three winners who bucked the trend, racing along the inside for the majority of their trips. But all three of those winners were favored. In fact, two of those runners were odds-on favorites, including Grand Mast at 3-10. When racing resumed last week, on Thursday, May 9, the bias seemed to have disappeared, and there was no apparent edge to any running style or on any part of the track through last weekend.

Granted, part of the reason for the preponderance of wide winners during the time the bias was in effect was because jockeys recognized the bias and made sure to avoid the inside whenever possible, but the fact remains that those horses caught along the rail for any considerable length of time were at a real disadvantage.

The turf course has played fairly for the majority of the meet, whether in sprints or routes. There have been some exceptions, however, including in the early part of the meet, when closers seemed to hold the edge in sprints on the grass.

On two days in particular - April 11 and April 14 - speed-types were at a distinct disadvantage. According to handicapper Brad Thomas, an astute tracker of biases, this is a common occurrence in the spring at Pimlico. According to Thomas, as the temperatures rise, the turf course gets more firm and becomes fairer to all running styles.

Handicappers this weekend might also want to track horses coming out of grass races on April 27 and 28, when those on the rail held the edge on turf course at Pimlico. The bias also served to aid those horses on the lead, as the pacesetters who were on the inside were on the best part of the course. But any runner on the fence, even off the pace, held an advantage. Those runners who were off the inside and ran subpar races can certainly be forgiven.

The long-range weather forecast, according to, calls for a 35 percent chance of rain on Saturday. Pimlico, like most American dirt tracks, tends to favor speed when the track is not fast. But sloppy conditions many times lead to an outside speed bias, where front-runners off the rail hold the advantage. That was certainly the case on April 12, the last time the entire card at Pimlico was run over a sloppy strip. It can be difficult to figure which runners will get that type of trip, but if the rains do come bettors could benefit from trying to plot the race flow and anticipate which horses will be racing with any potential bias.

As far as the Preakness is concerned, Orb is obviously not going to mind some rain, as he clearly relished the off going at Churchill Downs. His running style, however, could be an issue if the track is sloppy and outside speed horses do in fact have an edge, since he clearly will be well off the pace again. A horse like Oxbow, who ran decently in the Kentucky Derby, could be in an ideal spot, as he has some tactical speed and should be right off expected pacesetters Goldencents and Titletown Five. How the earlier races are run will give handicappers a much better idea of how the track is playing, but it's something to keep in mind if the second leg of the Triple Crown is as wet as the first.

Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 05-18-13 03:52 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11992

Steven Crist: Each of Orb's races is better than the last

In many years, a Kentucky Derby winner who won the roses on a wet track with a modest Beyer Speed Figure of 104 would be only a tepid favorite for the second leg of the Triple Crown. On Saturday, however, Orb will be even money or less in the 138th Preakness Stakes – and it’s hard to argue with either his price or his prospects of victory.

There are three good reasons why Orb deserves to be a shorter price than his bare credentials might suggest. First, he probably is an even better horse than he looks on paper, with plenty of room for improvement. Second, he emerges from a Derby that was remarkably clean and trouble-free. Finally, the eight who will line up against him at Pimlico on Saturday are a much less imposing group than he beat at Churchill Downs and do not include the Derby’s second-, third-, or fourth-place finishers.

Orb is not the kind of Derby winner who won the race by default, or because others misfired, or because he ran an uncharacteristically explosive race that you want to see him repeat before believing in him. Every one of his races this year has been better than the last, and each time, he did what he had to do under his own steam. He can stalk and pounce or settle in and make a big run as circumstances dictate.

He leaves the impression that there’s more to him than we’ve seen, and the way he’s trained since the Derby suggests we’ll see yet another career-best performance Saturday. Shug McGaughey, his trainer, usually uses “nice” as a superlative, but he’s called Orb’s recent works “breathtaking” and “magnificent.” Be very afraid.

Nothing about the Derby left you thinking that any of his opponents would have won had the race and the traffic unfolded differently. A few ran so badly compared with their previous form that they deserve another chance, which is why Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday are back for another try.

For the horses who had clean trips, though, including returnees Mylute (fifth) and Oxbow (sixth), it’s going to take a severe reversal of form to put them ahead of Orb. Will Take Charge (eighth) did lose a stride or two when Verrazano stopped in front of him, but he did little running thereafter.

The absence of the 2-3-4 finishers from the Derby continues an unwelcome trend of such horses increasingly skipping the Preakness. If you’re not alive for the Triple Crown, the thinking goes, why not get the extra rest for the Belmont?

This may make sense on a case-by-case basis – Empire Maker, for example, needed the time to get over physical problems that may have cost him the Derby – but it’s a good thing that horses such as Afleet Alex (third in 2005), Curlin (third in 2007) and Shackleford (fourth in 2010) gave it another try in the Preakness and won two weeks after losing in Louisville, Ky.

The defections of Derby runners-up from the Preakness also has something to do with the perceived quality of the Derby winner. The only two recent Preaknesses to lack the 2-3-4 Derby finishers were those won most dominantly, by Barbaro in 2006 and Big Brown in 2008. No one was eager to run back against either of them, and the same goes for Orb.

Goldencents and Itsmyluckyday strike me as the likeliest upsetters, if there is one, because they’re the only entrants to have fired a race in the same league as Orb’s Derby, whereas anyone else will have to take a very big step forward. It’s hard to have much confidence in either, however, as they may have peaked and may prove to be at their best going less than nine furlongs.

Departing is a nice, improving gelding but is taking a huge step up in class. The horses he just beat in the Illinois Derby all hadn’t done enough to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, so Orb beat 18 more accomplished horses in Louisville than Departing faced in Cicero, Ill.

So, let’s try them in that order: Orb, Goldencents, Itsmyluckyday, and Departing, with the added hope that Orb wins with the authority that leaves us talking about him, and not the spotty field that he beat in Baltimore, as the series moves on to Belmont.

Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 05-18-13 03:56 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 11992

This is what am going with:

1,9/2,4,8,9/2,4,8,9 $2 Tri Box

1,9/2,4,8,9, $ 2 Exacta Box

9 Across WPS

Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 05-18-13 04:04 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
Post A Reply
  Last Message   Next Message

Quick Links: