Pens huge overlay for tonight from historical records.
How about when a team that is a higher seed comes back home after being up 3-1.
Minny at Chicago
Ignoring win order the team coming home after being up 3-1 (Chicago) has a game 5 winning percentage of 57.1. All rounds are 65.2%. So pretty high, but nowhere close to the -250 they are laying tonight. So bigtime overlay here, but the Hawks are the better team, but not -250 better.
In the regular season game against Minny at home, the Hawks were just -172 faves. So you can see major juicing here.
How about when the team that is higher seed is coming home down 3-1.
Sens at Habs
Ignoring win order, when the lower seed is on the road for game 5, looking to close out the series they have a game 5 winning percentage 28.6. . Yes you read that correctly, just a paltry 28.6% win rate in the preliminary round. Now if you go by all rounds that jumps to 44.1%. So still very low. The Habs are a very good play at -123