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lippsman
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 7551

5-8-13 Hockey thread, picks, info and a whole lot more

The Sens steal one from the Habs, the Nucks are making tee times and we should be seeing a goaltending change for the Pens.


Zac 2-1 (9-3 run)
Mosby 1-1 (34-22 run)
Brutus5775 0-1 (35-23 run)

Didn't make a pick, 3 strikes and it's AHL for you

Badger24 0-1 (3-2 run)
usc1990 0-1 (12-3 run)

Boston at Toronto 7:00 PM
Washington at NY Rangers 7:30 PM
Los Angeles at St. Louis 9:00 PM
Detroit at Anaheim 10:00 PM

Old Post 05-08-13 01:23 PM
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playtowin


Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 8218

5-8

St.L -130
Detroit +120

Old Post 05-08-13 07:33 PM
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usc1990
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 5696

NYR -130

Anaheim under 5 (-135)


Playoffs YTD: 6-2 (+4.0 units)

Old Post 05-08-13 07:54 PM
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Zac
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14914

NY Rangers
St. Louis Blues

Good luck.

Playoffs: 11-7
Systems: 83-60

Old Post 05-08-13 10:23 PM
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Mosby


Registered: Feb 2011
Posts: 676

Leafs +120
Blues -125

GL everyone!

NHL season 115-95, +24.1 units

NHL Playoffs 5-3, +3.40 units

Old Post 05-08-13 10:30 PM
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lippsman
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Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 7551

History lesson for games tied 2-2

L.A at St. Louis, Detroit at Ducks and Isles at Pens.

What happens when a series goes back to the team with the better seed for game 5, being tied 2-2. You would think where they won a road game the tide has turned back and they have a huge advantage. Well one would think that wouldn't they.

Ignoring win order, considering site order. HHVV, the home team,(St.Louis, Detroit, Pens) historically have a Preliminary round winning percentage of 60.2% for game 5.

How about winning the series tied 2-2. Using the same situation the home team wins the series at a 61.4% rate and overall it's a tad lower at 60.8% for all rounds.

So tonight the Ducks and Blues are great values at just laying -125 and -135. The Pens are huge overlays at -209.

Old Post 05-08-13 10:46 PM
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lemgreen
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jun 2006
Posts: 2060

Here's my plan:

The Ducks and Blues are good value (according to my mentor Lippsman), but they are dogs so the market expects them to lose. So:

Ducks +275 to tie in regulation and
Blues +265 to tie in regulation.

Also:

When I see Zac, who is the only hot-weather hockey follower that I know, on the Rangers, I figure they too can only win in overtime, so....

Rangers +280 to tie in regulation.

Obviously, I have pretty much given up actually trying to handicap by the numbers in this weird strike-shortened crazy season, but my wife is desperate to get out for a meal, so I am doing the best I can.

Regards, and good luck

Lem

Incidentally, I have bet almost every game in the post-season to tie and I am a little ahead.

Old Post 05-08-13 11:07 PM
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lippsman
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Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 7551

Game 4 history lesson.

B's at Leafs and Caps at Rangers

How about a road team that has a 2-1 lead going into game 4 (B's, Caps) HHV, The road team has a game 4 record of 42-50. Yes you read that correctly. The team that grabbed home ice advantage back gives it away over half the time in game 4. In the preliminary round it stands at a 45.7% win rate. So the Leafs are a very good pick tonight at getting +122. The Rangers are a -130 fave so that's a tad high, but in the ball park.

Remember to cap those game first and use this as backup.

Old Post 05-08-13 11:08 PM
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Gmen


Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 556

lippsman

Hypothetical question for you. Based on what you have seen so far in the regular season and what has happened so far in the playoffs, what two teams in your opinion have the best chance of making it to the Stanley Cup?

Old Post 05-08-13 11:41 PM
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Brutus5775
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 3147

ducks

ducks under

nbl




My Goal is to Make Money Not Gamble !!

Old Post 05-09-13 12:59 AM
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lippsman
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Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 7551

Gmen

If the Pens can find a goaltender that can actually stop something then I pick the Pens for the East and even the cup if, that again if....they can get some goaltending.

Chicago all the way in the West.

Old Post 05-09-13 02:21 AM
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