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lippsman
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 7556

5-5-13 Hockey thread, picks, info and a whole lot more

The Leafs bark loudly and we had 3, yes 3 shutouts last night

What a great day for pucks, the games are staggered where, sans overtime, you can watch all the games and not miss any !!!!!!

Mosby 3-0 (Great Leafs pick !! 32-19 run)
usc1990 2-0 (12-2 run)
Brutus5775 2-0 (33-21 run)


Zac 2-1 (Very nice dog play on the Leafs !!! 5-1 run)

Didn't make a pick, 3 strikes and it's AHL for you

Badger24 0-1 (3-1 run up +3.04 units)x
eels 0-2 (4-2 run)x
playtowin 1-0
Fluid 1-0
masonw161 1-0 (Welcome to the board)

lemon-drop-kid 3-1
newyorker35 3-1 (6-3)
rabbitplus 0-2 (20-11 run)
BooBunny 1-0 (Won last 2 games)
2LEGIT2QUITU 2-2 (38-27 run)

Pittsburgh at NY Islanders 12:00 PM
Chicago at Minnesota 3:00 PM
Montreal at Ottawa 7:00 PM
Vancouver at San Jose 10:00 PM

Old Post 05-05-13 02:09 PM
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Badger24
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jul 2006
Posts: 1001

Chicago Vancouver Parlay
+236

Old Post 05-05-13 02:19 PM
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Brutus5775
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 3149

Pitts over
sj under

nbl...
it's tee time




My Goal is to Make Money Not Gamble !!

Old Post 05-05-13 03:00 PM
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lippsman
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 7556

What does history tell us about game 3's

So what does history tell us about game 3's ????

Pitt at Isles and Habs at Sens

When a team comes home after getting the split on the road they did what they were supposed to do. So does that carry into game 3 at home ? What about that visiting team, they were the fave considering they had home ice advantage.

When a team goes on the road for game 3 (Pens/Habs) after splitting at home, has a 53.8% chance of winning game 3. So the Pens being -174 faves are wayyyy out of whack. Also the Sens are an overlay, but not as bad. Now of course they are the better team, so the Pens should be favored, the Habs and Sens are really a coin flip. So the Habs getting +121 is good value. But you know anything is possible. But history tells us this is a huge overlay.

Hawks at Wild

How about when a team goes on the road after winning the first two at home. You would think that team down 0-2 will put together a great 3rd game to not go down 0-3. Well you would be correct.

In the preliminary round the road team that is up 2-0 only has a winning percentage of 47.8%. So the Wild getting +146 at home is massive.

Vancouver at Sharks

How about a team that takes the first two games on the road. Surely they should school the visiting team for a 3-0 lead ?? Right ?? Not at all. The home team coming home after sweeping on the road only has a 34.6% chance of winning game 3 at home. Yes that is correct, but I gotta tell you this is based off a very small sample of 26 games. Being that it is just so rare to occur. So the Nucks getting +130 is very good indeed.

So going by history you should take all the dogs today. Wow, that sounds like a strategy after my own heart.

GL

Old Post 05-05-13 03:22 PM
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lippsman
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 7556

Isles +161
Wild +149
Habs +120
Nucks +124
GS un 20.5 +103

GL

Old Post 05-05-13 03:28 PM
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Mosby


Registered: Feb 2011
Posts: 676

Canucks +125
Sens -125
Blackhawks -1

GL everyone!

NHL season 115-95, +24.1 units

NHL Playoffs 3-0, +3.90 units

Old Post 05-05-13 04:20 PM
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Zac
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Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14917

Chicago -1
San Jose

Good luck.

Old Post 05-05-13 06:07 PM
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