StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

The FoxDen Forum : Powered by vBulletin version 2.3.0 The FoxDen Forum > Sports Handicapping, Trends, and Stats > Weekend Churchill Downs Cards & Graded Stakes Races
Search The Fox Den Forum:

Subscribe to this Thread
Pages (2): [1] 2 »

Last Message   Next Message
    
Author
Message    Post A Reply
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 5660

Weekend Churchill Downs Cards & Graded Stakes Races

Seems to be more hype surrounding the Derby this year than there should be. Even with several unbeaten horses, Rick Pitino's run and Pletcher's historic day, the fact remains that this is a weak field. To be honest the OAKS looks to be a more exciting race.

I play the horses year round and I make it pretty clear in my posts that I'm a huge fan of trainer Todd Pletcher. I know his barn like the barn of my hand. Don't get me wrong, he had some monsters running in the next 48 hours, but they will be over bet and most of them are in bad spots. Since the media ran with Pletcher's multiple entry bonanza, his ponies will be backed with a large percentage of square wagers. As I've mentioned in years past, you will have a lot of $2 bets hitting the windows and they add up.

Look at the overlays in the show pools. Value found there every derby day. No question that watching the tote board on these races is a valuable tool.

I'll post the horses I'm looking at and will attempt to update when I can. Some wagers will be made after track changes are posted, but most will be made within a 10 - 20 minutes prior to post.

Good Luck

Old Post 05-03-13 03:15 AM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 5660

Churchill Downs

Race #1

#2 Liberated 2/1 (Best Bet)
#6 Anahauc 5/1

Race #2 (Maiden)

Profetiza 7/2

Three horse race and one to watch. #3 has the speed and the #4 & #10 will be closing. If the #10 has some value I may back it since Mott picked up Mike Smith.

Race #3

Will be investing heavy in this race. Boxing and wheeling several combinations.

I like the long price horses on the outside (6,8,9). The 1,4,5 will be overbet.


Race #4

1 and 7


Race #5 (Maiden)

Another one to watch or just get a dart board. Bail me out looks decent, but hasn't raced in 11 months. Pass

Race #6

More Chocolate 5/1

The million dollar horse Believe You Can 7/5 looks like the one to beat, but there should be some nice value on More Chocolate 5/1. Love the rider change.

Race #7

Tokyo Time 3/1

Race #8

14 - 2 / (9 - 5 - 11)

Race #9

This should be a good race. Looking at three and may back the best value or just watch.

Hymn Book 3/1 with the 8 & 9

Race #10

Noble Tune 3/1 (Best Bet)

Race #11

The Oaks is wide open and you have no less than 6 solid contenders. May play a few short wheels and Oak Derby Doubles. Dreaming of Julia is the horse to beat.

2 - 4 - 8 - 11

Race #12 (Maiden)

#11 Sky Girl with first time Lasix at 4/1 or better.

Old Post 05-03-13 05:05 AM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 5660

TRACK: FAST


TURF: FIRM (Lane 1, on the hedge)


POST TIME: 10:30 a.m. (all times Eastern)

UPDATED: 9:20 a.m.


RACE 1 (10:30 a.m.)


SCRATCH #8 Moneygrabber

RACE 2 (11:00 a.m.)


SCRATCH #2 Karola's Dance
Overweight #3 Kansas +1
Overweight #8 Cindy Says +1
Overweight #10 Profetiza +1

RACE 3 (11:30 a.m.)


SCRATCH #7 Formal Plan

RACE 4 (12:05 p.m.)


NO CHANGES

RACE 5 (12:43 p.m.)


Late Work #1 Peace Talk worked four furlongs from the gate at Keeneland on March 29 in :50

Late Work # 9 Storm Crossing worked five furlongs from the gate at Palm Meadows on February 12 in 1:02.60

SCRATCH #4 Midnight Sweetie
Overweight #5 Zadina +1
Overweight #9 Storm Crossing +1
Overweight #12 Kimallosa +1
AE #13 Soot Z will run
SCRATCH AE #14 Nora's Song

RACE 6 (1:26 p.m.)

NO CHANGES

RACE 7 (2:06 p.m.)

SCRATCH #7 Emotional Kitten

RACE 8 (3:02 p.m.)


SCRATCH #7 Spring Venture

RACE 9 (3:52 p.m.)

NO CHANGES

RACE 10 (4:44 p.m.)


SCRATCH #7 I'll Call
SCRATCH #12 Redwood Kitten

Race 11 (5:45 p.m.)
SCRATCH #10 Flashy Gray

Race 12 (6:21 p.m.)
Overweight #1 In Kelly's Defense +1
Overweight #2 Cherokee Beads +1
Overweight #5 Double Gelato +1
Overweight #11 Sky Girl +1
SCRATCH AE #13 Temily

Old Post 05-03-13 02:42 PM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 5660

#2 Liberated $200 Win

DD #2 / All $10

Old Post 05-03-13 03:30 PM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 5660

Race #2

$1 Tri Wheel

10 /(1,3-6)/(7-9,11)

<300>

Old Post 05-03-13 03:49 PM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 5660

Race #3

$10 EX Box (6,8,9)

Old Post 05-03-13 03:52 PM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Mgoblue4
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 1239

Keep the info coming Bromoe.
I have the 1,4,5 in my pick 4 but tailed with your exacta box for insurance.

Old Post 05-03-13 04:26 PM
Mgoblue4 is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Mgoblue4 Click here to Send Mgoblue4 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 5660

Race #4

Down to the 1 and 7. 7 is getting the action, making the 1 horse a value play.

#1 $50 WP

#1 Wheel EX / ALL TRI /ALL/ALL

1/7 $20 EX Box

<280>

Old Post 05-03-13 04:54 PM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 5660

5th - PASS

Race #6

More Chocolate

$40 WP

Ex Tri Wheel

<428>

Old Post 05-03-13 05:14 PM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 5660

Race 7

Tokyo Time

$50WP

EX TRI Wheel / (2-8, 10,11)

<582>

Old Post 05-03-13 07:01 PM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 5660

Race #8

Some live longshots

2 -5 - 9 - 13 - 14

(5,9,13) $10 Box

2, 14 / (5,9,13)

2,14 / (5,9,13) / ALL

<814>

Old Post 05-03-13 08:00 PM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 5660

Race #9

Several contenders here, taking a stab at the value horse.

Hymn Book $20 WP

Hymn Book EX / ALL / ALL/ 4

Hymn Book TRI / ALL /ALL

<217>

Old Post 05-03-13 08:41 PM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 5660

Hit the window three in a row. The Oaks is one to watch. Dreaming of Julia has no value.

+111

Good Luck

OAK / DERBY DOUBLES

$10

(2,7,8) / (8,10,12,16)

$2 (7 / ALL)

Old Post 05-03-13 10:14 PM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 5660

Derby Day

Rain...Mud...???

These are picks for a fast track

Poor weather could scratch many turf horses making these picks worthless as well.

Race #1

1,3

Race #2

8 /1,2

Race #3

Prime Cut 12/1 (Longshot of the day)

Race #4 - Maiden Race

Pass

Race #5

Code West was a possible derby horse and should roll here. I love several of the long shots in this race as well.
Putting in the mix:
Twin Engine 12/1
Don't be mad 30/1
Balance of Power 10/1
Brink of War 20/1

Race #6

Should be a heck of a race. Watch the board, but it's hard not to over look #2 Havelock.

Race #7

1,2,6,8

Race #8

2-5-8

Race #9

8-9

Race #10

9 (8,9) 8,9/ ALL EX / TRI

Race #11

Goldencents
ORB
It'smyluckyday
Normandy Invasion

Race #12

(2,3,7)

Race #13

2-8-11

Old Post 05-04-13 03:17 AM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
mlbfan


Registered: Jul 2010
Posts: 193

GL Bromoe! It's raining pretty good here and I'm about 45 mins from Louisville.

Old Post 05-04-13 11:55 AM
mlbfan is offline Click Here to See the Profile for mlbfan Click here to Send mlbfan a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 5660

Ya, looking at my form over some coffee right now. Most of the younger horses haven't run, let alone left the barn to race on an off track.

Looking at pedigree mud ratings, but it's going to come down to looking at the top east cost jockeys to get an edge. Track bias as well will be a factor. Speed maybe the key today.

Old Post 05-04-13 03:03 PM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 5660

Derby Day - Saturday, May 4
Race

Post Time

Wagering
Race 1 10:30 am WPS, Exacta, Daily Double
Race 2 11:01 am WPS, Exacta, Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4
Race 3 11:31 am WPS, Exacta, Daily Double, Pick 3
Race 4 12:04 pm WPS, Exacta, Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4
Race 5 12:38 pm WPS, Exacta, Daily Double, Pick 3
Race 6 1:19 pm WPS, Exacta, Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 6
Race 7 2:08 pm WPS, Exacta, Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 5
Race 8 2:59 pm WPS, Exacta, Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4
Race 9 3:49 pm WPS, Exacta, Daily Double, Pick 3
Race 10 4:44 pm WPS, Exacta, Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4, (Woodford Reserve Turf Classic)
Race 11 6:24 pm WPS, Exacta, Daily Double, Pick 3, Super Hi-5, (Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands)
Race 12 7:20 pm WPS, Exacta, Daily Double
Race 13 7:50 pm WPS, Exacta

Old Post 05-04-13 03:05 PM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 5660

TRACK: FAST

TURF: FIRM (Lane 1, on the hedge)

POST TIME: 10:30 a.m. (all times Eastern)

UPDATED: 8:55 a.m.

RACE 1 (10:30 a.m.)

NO CHANGES

RACE 2 (11:01 a.m.) - Start of $.50 Pick 4

SCRATCH #7 Kenny's Lake

RACE 3 (11:31 a.m.)

SCRATCH #7 Cavalero

RACE 4 (12:04 p.m.) - Start of $.50 Pick 4

RIDER CHANGE #2 Indy Awesome will be ridden by Calvin Borel

Overweight #2 Indy Awesome +1

Overweight #3 Saint X. +1

SCRATCH AE #13 Argosy

SCRATCH AE #14 Snuffle Overboard

RACE 5 (12:38 p.m.)

SCRATCH #1 Brink of War

SCRATCH #7 Don't Be Mad

RACE 6 (1:19 p.m.) 19th running of the $125,000 Twin Spires Turf Sprint Presented by RAM (GIII) - Start of $1 million TwinSpires.com Derby Day Guaranteed Pick 6

NO CHANGES

RACE 7 (2:08 p.m.) 27th running of the $300,000 Humana Distaff (GI) - Start of $.50 Pick 5

NO CHANGES

RACE 8 (2:59 p.m.) 28th running of the $250,000 Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile Presented by Longines (GII) - Start of $.50 Pick 4

NO CHANGES

RACE 9 (3:49 p.m.) 79th running of the $400,000 Churchill Downs

NO CHANGES

RACE 10 (4:44 p.m.) 27th running of the $500,000 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (GI) - Start of $.50 Pick 4

SCRATCH #5 Swift Warrior

Race 11 (6:24 p.m.) 139th running of the $2 million Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (GI) - $1 Super Hi-5 (no carryover)

SCRATCH #1 Black Onyx

SCRATCH AE #21 Fear the Kitten

Race 12 (7:20 p.m.)

SCRATCH #6 Looking Cool

Race 13 (7:50 p.m.)

Overweight #1 Pontiff +1

Overweight #4 Premium Rally +1

SCRATCH AE #13 Rope Dancer

SCRATCH AE #14 Tuffer

Old Post 05-04-13 03:06 PM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 5660

Rough start yesterday, but managed to cash on 4 of the last 5 races. Watch track bias as day goes on. Speed should hold.

Race #1

DD

1,3 with 8 ($20)

1,3 with 1,2 ($10)

EX Box (1,3,8) ($20)

TRI Wheel (1,3,8) / ALL / ALL ($2)

Old Post 05-04-13 03:15 PM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 5660

Saturday Graded Stakes Races

BELMONT PARK

GIII Beaugay Stakes

Dream Peace 6/5

Live value horses I'm adding to exotics:

Pianist 6/1
Peace Preserver 8/1
Naples Bay 12/1
Ruthenia 12/1


GIII Fort Marcy Stakes

Several Euro shippers in this contest - PASS

Hollywood Park

GII Mervyn LeRoy Handicap

Guilt Trip is a monster horse in a nice spot. Action on the #4 & #7 should give the horse some nice value. Will be investing heavy in the horse today.

Old Post 05-04-13 03:40 PM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Post A Reply
  
Pages (2): [1] 2 »   Last Message   Next Message

Quick Links: