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cwin32
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Registered: Apr 2005
Posts: 1760

Underdog Chase 4/22 - 4/25

Official Plays 1-0 +1.00 Units
Unofficial Plays 1-1 -5.80 Units

Official: Blue Jays +105
Unofficial: D-Backs +108

Old Post 04-22-13 01:37 PM
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ballinhj12
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Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 1501

I'm usually a huge chase fan but really like the idea in bases. I was wondering if you've done this in years previous and if so on average how many series losses did it sustain? Thanks for you helpful insight brother and good luck

Old Post 04-22-13 08:10 PM
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cwin32
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Registered: Apr 2005
Posts: 1760

I have not tracked or paid much attention to this for a few years. When Underdog Master posted it maybe 7 or 8 years ago or so, it had a crazy record for 2 years of like 80-1 or something. It doesn't produce many plays if you strictly stick to the parameters. As you can see, I strayed and lost on SD...that's why I'm labeling official plays, so if someone wanted to play only them they could

Old Post 04-22-13 08:50 PM
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cwin32
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Registered: Apr 2005
Posts: 1760

Two tough late inning losses last night.

Blue Jays (GM 2) -118
D-Backs (GM 2) +121

* As stated before, determining if a team will be a dog all series is the criteria I struggle with

Old Post 04-23-13 01:50 PM
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lippsman
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Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 7680

Parameters

If you don't mind, could you post the rules of the chase ?

I don't seem to see as many of the chases here as I used to. Although it may still be a bit early for some of them.

Thanks

Old Post 04-23-13 01:50 PM
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cwin32
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Registered: Apr 2005
Posts: 1760

I'll post his original post below:

Baseball is one of the easiest sports to make money at if you quit chasing away your money playing favorites and start playing dogs.......this system has made me over 6-digits the last two years and will work if you follow my lead..........I will explain how this works and will be somewhat lengthy but worth the reading.

First, please realize that there is way too much emphasis put on starting pitchers in a game......why???.......simple, think about how many games are won in the 8th and 9th innings when the starters are no longer around......enough said!

Second, use the simple mathematical formula by looking at any winning team in the last 30 years, and you will find that even the very best teams hardly ever win more that 67% of their games.....A team that wins 100 games in a season still loses 62!(38%)

Third, use the simple mathematecal formula by looking at any of the worst teams for the last 30 years, and you will find that even the very worst teams win at least 55 games a year! (34%)

Yes, there are a few exceptions to the above but overall have stood the test of time!

In other words, even the very best teams average losing 1 in every three games and even the very worst teams average winning 1 in every 3 games. This will be important later on.

What does all this mean underdog??? I will tell you now!

I call this feature Baseball the Underdog Way!


What I generally look for (with a multitude of variations) is a generally weaker team playing on the road at a .500 or stronger opponent. What this guarantees me is, that my weaker team will be an underdog for all games in the series. I AM COUNTING ON MY WEAKER TEAM TO WIN AT LEAST 1 OF THE GAMES IN THE SERIES. A series is usually 3 games but sometimes can be 4. Once your team wins, you must stop and wait for the next series to begin!

Here is an example of a series:

Tampa Bay @ Ny Yankees

Game 1 NYY -200 Tampa +180
Game 2 NYY -180 Tampa +160
Game 3 NYY -230 Tampa +190


You may start with any bankroll that you wish.....I personally will start with $7000. Divide your starting bankroll by 7 (this example $1000). The reason that you divide by 7 is that if you lose game 1, you double game 2 and if that loses, then you double game 2 amount for game 3.

If you win the first game, stop--you made $1800
If you lose game one, double your bet for game 2 ($2000)
If you win, stop---you made series profit of $2200 ($3200 win for game 2 - game 1 loss of $1000).
If you lose game two, double the amount from game 2 ($4000)
If you win, stop---you made series profit of $4200 ($7200 win for game 3 - game 1 and 2 loss of $3000)
If you lose, sorry to you and me............I have done this for the past 3 years for a total of 162 series---I have won 160 times and got swept all three games twice...........that is some serious winnings.

I use a lot of various factors when choosing the series that I will play....some of those are as follows:

1) Don't play against a team on a winning streak of 3 or more games.
2) Don't play on a team that is on a losing streak of 3 or more.
3) Look at a teams road performance against opponent @ opponents stadium.........some teams have remarkably good or bad history in certain ballparks......I have found a lot of gems this way.
4) Is weather going to be a factor?? ---yes, the weather. I don't worry about 1st game weather only subsequent weather days....because if one game gets cancelled in your series, it may not be made up right away.....I don''t worry about game one, because if that game gets cancelled, then I cancel the series play and wait for next.
5) In general, the team I am playing on, must be at least 4-6 in their last 10 games played and be at least a .400 team on the road or at least a .400 team versus opponent.
6) In general, the team I am playing agaisnt must be no better than 6-4 in their last 10 games played.
7) The team I am playing on, must have at least a .400 winning % versuse the opponent over the last 3 years.
8) As I stated before, these are general guidelines that I use but will very depending on other criteria that may be relevant.


As a favor to all the guys in this forum, I will be posting these series plays every time I am playing one......if you follow my lead, you will make a profit .........again, I am 160-2 over the last 3 years doing this and have gobbled up plenty of profit to show for it!

Make sure that when you bet on these games, that you use a sportsbook that allows you to play "action goes" this simply means that if the game is played, you have it.......a lot of books use starting pitchers only. so if there is a late pitching change, you have a "no action" wager.

NOW GO WIN SOME MONEY!!

Old Post 04-23-13 03:10 PM
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lippsman
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Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 7680

Thanks for the post

Old Post 04-23-13 11:41 PM
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wildjayson


Registered: Sep 2009
Posts: 223

bout time these canuks started hitting the ball

Old Post 04-24-13 07:56 AM
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cwin32
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Registered: Apr 2005
Posts: 1760

Nice win on the D-Backs (I post these early but seems like you can get better lines if you wait, D-Backs were closer to +135 at game time)

No line up for Blue Jays, but I think Baltimore is debuting a guy for his first start today so might be fav again...not sure if I'm playing yet or not

Old Post 04-24-13 02:59 PM
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wildjayson


Registered: Sep 2009
Posts: 223

getting -135,understand when u say how tough to figure if a team gonna be a dog whole series

Old Post 04-24-13 03:32 PM
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cwin32
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Registered: Apr 2005
Posts: 1760

Yeah, Blue Jays should not have been a play in hindsight. I think I'm laying off today. I would have played it if it was like yesterday and around -110 or so. Sorry about this one

Old Post 04-24-13 03:44 PM
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wildjayson


Registered: Sep 2009
Posts: 223

hey no problem,lets get the next one

Old Post 04-24-13 03:48 PM
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cwin32
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2005
Posts: 1760

Changed my mind, I'm going to play Blue Jays -1RL @ -106 odds.

Good luck if you decide to follow

Old Post 04-24-13 04:18 PM
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wildjayson


Registered: Sep 2009
Posts: 223

in like flynn lets get it

Old Post 04-24-13 05:09 PM
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